Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

briany

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

So the people that voted to stay, those who've realised the folly of their decision, EU migrants here, Irish farmers and exporters and those who couldn't vote should just be thrown under the bus?

There's another thing as well - the UK being a force of Euro-scepticism within the EU and holding to account the idea of 'ever closer union'. There's a real concern that without the UK acting as a counterbalance, the EU could tumble into the realm of full-fledged federal state way faster than it ought to, if it ever should.

If we poo-poo the UK's concerns about sovereignty at this point, at what point of further European integration do they become legitimate, and will we have a strong voice to protest them once that point is reached?

Laois_Man

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

Don't get me started on the "We SavEd EuRopE iN tHe Waaaaarrrmaaaate" guy...

That's the nonsense that's in their school history books!

josip wrote: »

My problem with this is that the UK's role within, and impact on, the EU is toxic and malignant.
Even more so since they invoked article 50.
It's best that they leave.

Well there was always a vociferous anti-EU faction in the UK who went out and voted for anti-EU candidates.....but maybe the pro-EU faction has grown considerably now because of all the nonsense over the last year in particular, and the UK could conceivably end up electing less anti EU MEPs than before!

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta

Robert McGrath wrote: »

I’m not saying he’s right, but the statements aren’t necessarily contradictory. I think he’s saying that at the moment, the UK imports more than it exports to the EU, and that the UK would import less in the future because of a tariff led trade war and that the UK would therefore “win the war”

Are you seriously suggesting the UK could domestically produce all of the goods it currently imports?

ancapailldorcha

Leroy42 wrote: »

Voters on the losing side of any election/ref get 'thrown under a bus'. Unfortunately, unless the country as a whole stands up for itself then the 'will of the people' does need to be respected. The argument,, of course, is what what 'will' actually means, and it seems to mean everything to everybody.

We saw with Corbyn's election to Labour leader, that grassroots can have a clear impact on the parties. UKIP appear to be doing a similar thing within the Tories (Greive vote last week). So where are all the young people, the people out marching last weekend, the remainers, why have they not joined the Tories and demanded their voice be heard? The Brexiteers are willing to get their hands dirty but the remainers seem intent on marches and posters.

Do they?

Governments are supposed to act for the nation as a whole, not just their voters.

Referendum results should be clearly understood when the legislation to hold a referendum is called. Nobody got screwed during the SSM and 8th referenda results.

That said, I think it can be argued that the country is standing up for itself. The supreme court forced May to go through Parliament to get her deal ratified and Parliament has shot it down three times.

I don't really get your point about young people joining the party that has done everything to screw them from tuition fees to strangling the housing market to Brexit. They're supposed to reward this with what little cash they've left.

Irishmale0399

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Do they?

Governments are supposed to act for the nation as a whole, not just their voters.

Referendum results should be clearly understood when the legislation to hold a referendum is called. Nobody got screwed during the SSM and 8th referenda results.

That said, I think it can be argued that the country is standing up for itself. The supreme court forced May to go through Parliament to get her deal ratified and Parliament has shot it down three times.

I don't really get your point about young people joining the party that has done everything to screw them from tuition fees to strangling the housing market to Brexit. They're supposed to reward this with what little cash they've left.

Then the question would have to be asked....Why hold a referendum at all then??? There is always a risk when a vote is held. This time it went the wrong way...would the people or government entertain a new referendum had the vote been the other way around???

Leroy42

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't really get your point about young people joining the party that has done everything to screw them from tuition fees to strangling the housing market to Brexit. They're supposed to reward this with what little cash they've left.

Join it to change it, not to endorse it.

People joined Labour in order to vote for Corbyn. If people want the Tories to change they need to act on that. Stop letting the over 70's white drive policy.

ancapailldorcha

Leroy42 wrote: »

Join it to change it, not to endorse it.

People joined Labour in order to vote for Corbyn. If people want the Tories to change they need to act on that. Stop letting the over 70's white drive policy.

Except that wing of the party always existed and used to dominate it pre-Blair.

The Tory party has always appealed to the wealthy and the elderly. Financially incentivising this isn't a good idea.

awec

I just spent like 30 mins watching ParliamentTV only to realise that it was a re-run of Friday.

Kalyke

awec wrote: »

I just spent like 30 mins watching ParliamentTV only to realise that it was a re-run of Friday.

Resumes at 1430 today

20silkcut

joe40 wrote: »

Why is only in Britain that there seem to be this narrative that they have to obey EU rules, like they were being governed by a foreign power.
Germas, French, Irish, Belgians..... we all obey the same rules.

Maybe the same level of discontent about the EU exists in other countries and I'm simply not hearing it.

The question is never posed by the British press, but if EU membership is so harmful why are other countries, including big economies like France and Germany not trying to leave. Everyone is subject to the same conditions even moreso than Britain.

There was a great documentary on Netflix a few years ago called winter on fire. It covered the pro EU street demonstrations in Ukraine in late 2013.
It followed the protests as the police gradually upped the ante from using batons to rubber bullets to eventually real bullets. This level of violence was on the level of Bloody Sunday or anything that happened in the troubles.
These were people out on the streets of Kiev getting shot dead agitating for closer relations with the EU.

McGiver

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

It's really quite concerning how fast the revolt against intelligence, knowledge and fact is spreading worldwide, being pushed along by & carrying with it - political extremism (both left and right)


The longer this goes on the risk of this fascist crap spreading here and across the EU seems to be getting higher and higher, what with JRM snuggling up with the AFD, and a LOT of British folk sharing same drivel on social media at the moment.

The extreme left also hates the EU, so there's no really noisy opposition to anything that promotes the end game for each viewpoint.

It is concerning. The age of Trumpism. The EU has become a very convenient universal scapegoat for both the hard left and the hard right. The EU is allegedly too communist and too neoliberal at the same time apart from other things.

And the reason why the EU is the scapegoat is because a) it's somewhat remote, b) it's somewhat complicated and c) it's a supranational organisation and that all results in people creating conspiracy theories and outright lies about it either due to stupidity, due to malice counting on ignorance of others about the workings of it or due to ignorance of the same.

It's easier and more fancier to create a conspiracy theory about a complicated supranational organisation with HQ in Brussels than about your local council.
Essentially it all goes down to ignorant/gullible people not understanding the EU, being frustrated with their lifes and then being served this notion that the EU is the cause of all their issues by populists, madmen, charlatans and the power hungry. This happens in all countries of EU at the moment with the assistance of the Russian propaganda machine (bots and trolls). I don't see this that much in Ireland, but I'm sure it will become more common here too.

An Ciarraioch

SNP will vote for Common Market 2.0 if ranked tonight - but that only brings it up to 223 votes.

10000maniacs

Steve Baker being chewed up and spat out on Politics Live this morning regarding leave campaign expenses. In early 2016, Baker sent an email to Tory colleagues saying "It is open to the Vote Leave family to create separate legal entities each of which can spend £700,000. Vote leave will be able to spend as much money as is necessary to win the referendum."
Baker said "No one is suggesting that breaches of the law are acceptable and I condemn all breaches of the law but it is a ridiculous way of putting it. I am extremely angry that I was badly advised and am sitting here today having to defend it and am absolutely clear that my conscience is free of any blemish and would like to point out that that was written before the regulated period.... People can make mistakes". Then he goes on to blame a nameless individual for advising him badly.

Robert McGrath

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta wrote: »

Are you seriously suggesting the UK could domestically produce all of the goods it currently imports?

No, of course not. I’m just saying if you’re going to criticise the Brexiter side, criticise them for the right thing. What yer man said was inaccurate, but he didn’t contradict himself within 6 seconds as was implied above

10000maniacs

10000maniacs wrote: »

Steve Baker being chewed up and spat out on Politics Live this morning regarding leave campaign expenses. In early 2016, Baker sent an email to Tory colleagues saying "It is open to the Vote Leave family to create separate legal entities each of which can spend £700,000. Vote leave will be able to spend as much money as is necessary to win the referendum."
Baker said "No one is suggesting that breaches of the law are acceptable and I condemn all breaches of the law but it is a ridiculous way of putting it. I am extremely angry that I was badly advised and am sitting here today having to defend it and am absolutely clear that my conscience is free of any blemish and would like to point out that that was written before the regulated period.... People can make mistakes". Then he goes on to blame a nameless individual for advising him badly.

Ignorance is no defence for breaking the law.

If May had any bottle, A50 would have been cancelled as soon as it was found out that vote leave broke the law many times.

I don't think it makes a smidgen of difference at this stage. Leavers were sold a bucket of lies, and can't go back and admit they were fooled.

Very depressing really

Spook_ie

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta wrote: »

Are you seriously suggesting the UK could domestically produce all of the goods it currently imports?

As in most countries they would import what they could afford, the fact that their import/export market would probably shrink doesn't mean they lost/won a trade war.

At the end of the day it just means a different market appearing, whether that be a less consumer driven market and making things actually have a meaningful lifespan, as is likely to emerge in the UK or a throw away society as is present at the moment in the EU and USA generally remains to be seen.

josip

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

So the people that voted to stay, those who've realised the folly of their decision, EU migrants here, Irish farmers and exporters and those who couldn't vote should just be thrown under the bus?

When I said 'it's best that they leave', I meant, 'it's best for the EU that they leave.
The EU has to look after its own citizens.
All those you listed are UK citizens and it's the responsibility of HMG to look after their interests, not the EU's responsibility.

Professor Moriarty

josip wrote: »

When I said 'it's best that they leave', I meant, 'it's best for the EU that they leave.
The EU has to look after its own citizens.
All those you listed are UK citizens and it's the responsibility of HMG to look after their interests, not the EU's responsibility.

Irish farmers and exporters haven't been UK citizens for a century.

seamus

Spook_ie wrote: »

At the end of the day it just means a different market appearing, whether that be a less consumer driven market and making things actually have a meaningful lifespan, as is likely to emerge in the UK or a throw away society as is present at the moment in the EU and USA generally remains to be seen.

Tbh, this is just flowery language being used to rehash, "The UK survived the war, it can survive this".

You're basically saying it's OK, people will get used to having a lower standard of living and making do without the luxuries they currently enjoy.

Which is true. But the problem is that most of our economies are based on producing and selling luxuries to one another.

If we all got bombed back to the stone age, we could say that people will make do, they will light fire and grow and hunt their own food. But that's taking blind optimism to a place of denial.

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta

Robert McGrath wrote: »

No, of course not. I’m just saying if you’re going to criticise the Brexiter side, criticise them for the right thing. What yer man said was inaccurate, but he didn’t contradict himself within 6 seconds as was implied above

Spook_ie wrote: »

As in most countries they would import what they could afford, the fact that their import/export market would probably shrink doesn't mean they lost/won a trade war.

At the end of the day it just means a different market appearing, whether that be a less consumer driven market and making things actually have a meaningful lifespan, as is likely to emerge in the UK or a throw away society as is present at the moment in the EU and USA generally remains to be seen.

Come on now... do you genuinely believe that when that person was making the statement they were implying either of these things? The only meaning without doing some serious mental gymnastics is that he believes the UK's importation of EU goods means the UK has the EU over the barrel, not taking into consideration the impact on the UK itself or any potential knock-on issues.

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta

josip wrote: »

When I said 'it's best that they leave', I meant, 'it's best for the EU that they leave.
The EU has to look after its own citizens.
All those you listed are UK citizens and it's the responsibility of HMG to look after their interests, not the EU's responsibility.

Isn't that kind of one of the main points of the EU?

Jim2007

Leroy42 wrote: »

Maybe call it a 3 year extension (so as to avoid having to revoke A50 and the public outrage that will cause), where everything stays at it currently is. UK remains a full member, partakes in EU elections, pays into the EU budget and plays a full and active role. During this time the UK continues on with its internal dialogue about the EU and tries, through a series of ref's, to come to some sort of consensus.

Absolutely not. There is no benefit to the EU to have this kind of nonsense continuing, we need to draw a line under this one way or another and move on to address all the other issues that are of concern to the people of the EU.

ancapailldorcha

josip wrote: »

When I said 'it's best that they leave', I meant, 'it's best for the EU that they leave.
The EU has to look after its own citizens.

The UK dismantling and selling itself off in project Singapore-on-Thames doesn't benefit the EU one bit. Nor does a major European military power becoming ever more right wing.

josip wrote: »

All those you listed are UK citizens and it's the responsibility of HMG to look after their interests, not the EU's responsibility.

EU migrants are EU migrants. Some have citizenship, some do not.

Shelga

I can’t see the point in the EU granting a long extension with no plan from the UK.

I hope the Irish government has plans on how to help/subsidise beef farmers here in the case of no deal, because the likelihood of it is extremely high.

Will there be a school of thought in the EU council at the moment that crashing out is better for them in some ways, long term?

ancapailldorcha

Shelga wrote: »

I can’t see the point in the EU granting a long extension with no plan from the UK.

I hope the Irish government has plans on how to help/subsidise beef farmers here in the case of no deal, because the likelihood of it is extremely high.

Will there be a school of thought in the EU council at the moment that crashing out is better for them in some ways, long term?

I think the government's been quite active in helping Irish firms establish a presence on the continent. Don't have a link offhand though.

Crashing out hurts the EU as well. The UK isn't a huge market. Last figure I saw was the UK taking 6% of EU exports though that's not nothing either. The best outcome short of cancelling Brexit is the closest alignment of the UK and the EU possible.

Unfortunately, Theresa May decided to trap herself in her red lines.

Laois_Man

Shelga wrote: »

I can’t see the point in the EU granting a long extension with no plan from the UK.

There's no question of an extension being granted without a plan from the UK.

But today MIGHT see one emerge - even if Theresa May disapproves of it.

Otherwise a suspension of matters until after the HoC agrees to a General Election and a new Government is formed is the only thing that can realistically happen as far as I can see - and the HoC wouldn't agree to a General Election until after Theresa May announces she is stepping down as Tory leader!

Shelga

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think the government's been quite active in helping Irish firms establish a presence on the continent. Don't have a link offhand though.

Crashing out hurts the EU as well. The UK isn't a huge market. Last figure I saw was the UK taking 6% of EU exports though that's not nothing either. The best outcome short of cancelling Brexit is the closest alignment of the UK and the EU possible.

Unfortunately, Theresa May decided to trap herself in her red lines.

Cancelling Brexit is best for the EU, close alignment with a customs union/single market is second best- but aren't we beyond that now?

Interesting article in the Financial Times about why the EU will not be keen on more extensions: https://www.ft.com/content/b4965046-524f-11e9-9c76-bf4a0ce37d49

The UK is 3 days past the point of original exit, and 11 days away from the extended exit day, and is only now holding indicative votes about what way they'd like to proceed, with no majority for anything. The situation is looking increasingly hopeless. We all know what makes the most sense, but I think the period where either of the two most favourable options could happen has passed.

At least in a no deal exit, the UK will be forced to come to its senses quickly. The EU holds all of the cards in such a situation. With a long extension, this creates more and more uncertainty and instability, and the risk of Eurosceptic candidates running for election.

If I was head of the European Council, I would be seriously considering refusing an extension to the UK for anything other than a referendum (which is also awful in lots of ways, but so is everything now). An extension for a general election solves nothing. An extension just to argue amongst themselves more is pointless.

2nd referendum, revoke article 50, or no deal. The choice is yours.

seamus

seamus wrote: »

Tbh, this is just flowery language being used to rehash, "The UK survived the war, it can survive this".

You're basically saying it's OK, people will get used to having a lower standard of living and making do without the luxuries they currently enjoy.

Which is true. But the problem is that most of our economies are based on producing and selling luxuries to one another.

If we all got bombed back to the stone age, we could say that people will make do, they will light fire and grow and hunt their own food. But that's taking blind optimism to a place of denial.

Planned obsolescence and excessive consumerism are the greatest risks to the environment short of nuclear war, but these are nothing to do with Brexit.

For many leave voters, a rebellion against globalization was part of the reason they want to leave the EU. The EU representing many of the features of globalization that puts some people at a disadvantage as big business brings in cheap labour to deny them a career and export's the profit to another country to avoid tax.
The fear of a federal US of Europe, led by Germany was also a great fear amongst many leave voters as well.
Just calling them racist bigots, is simply avoiding the reasons many voted the way they did.

Laois_Man

Shelga wrote: »

An extension for a general election solves nothing.

People keep saying this and I don't agree. It's hard to know for sure but I'd be fairly confident in a prediction that it would be a Labour or Lib Dems/SNP with a healthy majority coalition at the end of it and that's a very different scenario.

The elimination of the DUP as the holders of the balance of power on it's own would make a big difference but wouldn't solve everything if the Tory's got back in. But unless they get a majority on their own, you can forget that. Nobody other than the DUP would go near them!

If the Tory's had any sense, they would de-select ERG members which would also help - but that won't happen!

ancapailldorcha

Shelga wrote: »

Cancelling Brexit is best for the EU, close alignment with a customs union/single market is second best- but aren't we beyond that now?

Interesting article in the Financial Times about why the EU will not be keen on more extensions: https://www.ft.com/content/b4965046-524f-11e9-9c76-bf4a0ce37d49

The UK is 3 days past the point of original exit, and 11 days away from the extended exit day, and is only now holding indicative votes about what way they'd like to proceed, with no majority for anything. The situation is looking increasingly hopeless. We all know what makes the most sense, but I think the period where either of the two most favourable options could happen has passed.

At least in a no deal exit, the UK will be forced to come to its senses quickly. The EU holds all of the cards in such a situation. With a long extension, this creates more and more uncertainty and instability, and the risk of Eurosceptic candidates running for election.

If I was head of the European Council, I would be seriously considering refusing an extension to the UK for anything other than a referendum (which is also awful in lots of ways, but so is everything now). An extension for a general election solves nothing. An extension just to argue amongst themselves more is pointless.

2nd referendum, revoke article 50, or no deal. The choice is yours.

If anything, cancelling Brexit is more likely than ever.

The deal is dead. She might try to bring it back again but nobody wants it. We'll have a better idea later tonight but as far as I am concerned, all we're waiting for is an extension to facilitate a GE/People's Vote from the EU and for Politicians to become brave enough to vote through a second referendum.

Nobody wants no deal save for the fanatics. Even the DUP are seeing sense and saying they'd prefer Remain to undermining the Union they purport to value above all else. Remainers meanwhile keep denigrating the "Norway option" as if it were a bad thing though in fairness it is objectively inferior to the status quo.

Deleted User wrote: »

Planned obsolescence and excessive consumerism are the greatest risks to the environment short of nuclear war, but these are nothing to do with Brexit.

For many leave voters, a rebellion against globalization was part of the reason they want to leave the EU. The EU representing many of the features of globalization that puts some people at a disadvantage as big business brings in cheap labour to deny them a career and export's the profit to another country to avoid tax.
The fear of a federal US of Europe, led by Germany was also a great fear amongst many leave voters as well.
Just calling them racist bigots, is simply avoiding the reasons many voted the way they did.

Leave voters voted against Globalization.

I see no issue with the assessment save for the fact that they're in for a shock when they see that that's what Dominic Raab has in mind for British workers whom he considers lazy.