Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

First Up

Deleted User wrote:

For many leave voters, a rebellion against globalization was part of the reason they want to leave the EU. The EU representing many of the features of globalization that puts some people at a disadvantage as big business brings in cheap labour to deny them a career and export's the profit to another country to avoid tax. The fear of a federal US of Europe, led by Germany was also a great fear amongst many leave voters as well. Just calling them racist bigots, is simply avoiding the reasons many voted the way they did.

A guy interviewed on BBC said he voted Leave to make schools and hospitals better and to reduce street crime.

When asked why he blamed the EU for these things he said he blamed the government.

With that sort of incisive thinking, you really have to wonder.

Russman

If it’s actually true that 13 ministers favour no-deal, they could be past the point of no return.
If she wanted to, can the PM do anything to precipitate a no-deal crash out, apart from winding the clock down and letting it happen by default ? Is their a nuclear option for a hard core brexiteer, or can the HoC do anything to actively stop it ?
I’m just thinking of the two scenarios where she might throw a strop and decide f—k it, we’re out, or where the clock gets to an hour before the deadline, can the house instruct her to revoke ?

Professor Moriarty

Labour to back a Norway Plus model of staying in the SM and CU tonight. If Bercow allows it, of course. It will be down to Tory MPs as to whether it's accepted or not. MPs won't be whipped except for the cabinet who are instructed not to vote. Personally, I could see cabinet members defying the whip. If they do and/or if Norway Plus is accepted, I think the band aid keeping the Tory party together will finally fall off.

Anteayer

Sterling traders seem to be responding to every nuance of the debate, rather optimistically, the currency is going like a yoyo at the moment. It's really starting to become a pain in the rear to do business with the UK as there's a lot of fluctuation. Where possible, I'm not signing contracts in £.

Infini

Anteayer wrote: »

Sterling traders seem to be responding to every nuance of the debate, rather optimistically, the currency is going like a yoyo at the moment. It's really starting to become a pain in the rear to do business with the UK as there's a lot of fluctuation. Where possible, I'm not signing contracts in £.

Honestly the currencys been holdin in the mid 80s for the last few weeks.There wont be much of a significant shift unless either Abandon Brexit occurs which would trigger a rally or no deal occurs which triggers a major selloff.

Laois_Man

Russman wrote: »

can the HoC do anything to actively stop it ?

If the indicative votes find a majority on something tonight, Standing order 14 can be invoked to have it passed as legislation whether Theresa May or her ministers like it or not.

badtoro

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

josip wrote: »

My problem with this is that the UK's role within, and impact on, the EU is toxic and malignant.
Even more so since they invoked article 50.
It's best that they leave.

So the people that voted to stay, those who've realised the folly of their decision, EU migrants here, Irish farmers and exporters and those who couldn't vote should just be thrown under the bus?

I'm an Irish farmer and I think the UK should leave, for the good of the EU. I see no way how the UK's internal omnishambles can be healed in the short or medium term. From the education to political systems, to the media and peoples own ignorance. I genuinely fear a remaining UK with a malcontent government could actually do more serious damage to the EU than Brexit.

Pardon the financial pun, but Irish farmers need to focus on where their pounds are coming from rather than fretting over the pennies.

Leroy42

Deleted User wrote: »

For many leave voters, a rebellion against globalization was part of the reason they want to leave the EU. The EU representing many of the features of globalization that puts some people at a disadvantage as big business brings in cheap labour to deny them a career and export's the profit to another country to avoid tax.
The fear of a federal US of Europe, led by Germany was also a great fear amongst many leave voters as well.
Just calling them racist bigots, is simply avoiding the reasons many voted the way they did.

And since, and if people are being honest with themselves actually before, the ref people were made aware that it is not the EU that is the cause of this, any more than it was Obama fault that coal was dying out in the US.

But certainly since the Ref the many lies about and blaming of the EU have been exposed yet there is a very significant number of people that simply want out.

So the question is why? Is it because of the Euro, well no. Is it because of food banks or knife crime? Again no. So what is it. What is it thata people are willing, in fact calling for, economic negatives for at the very least the short term. There must be something.

And that something, however you want to dress it up, is all based around England for the English. Our laws, our taxes, our leaders, our people.

Balanadan

Anteayer wrote: »

Sterling traders seem to be responding to every nuance of the debate, rather optimistically, the currency is going like a yoyo at the moment. It's really starting to become a pain in the rear to do business with the UK as there's a lot of fluctuation. Where possible, I'm not signing contracts in £.

Between the currency risk and the risk of tariffs in the event of no deal, we're holding off on doing new business with companies in the UK, only purchasing for confirmed orders or when we see value. We're ready to shift a lot of purchasing out of the UK to other European countries.

Professor Moriarty

badtoro wrote: »

I'm an Irish farmer and I think the UK should leave, for the good of the EU. I see no way how the UK's internal omnishambles can be healed in the short or medium term. From the education to political systems, to the media and peoples own ignorance. I genuinely fear a remaining UK with a malcontent government could actually do more serious damage to the EU than Brexit.

Pardon the financial pun, but Irish farmers need to focus on where their pounds are coming from rather than fretting over the pennies.

The IFA and the ICMSA have a different perspective. 'Armageddon', 'devastation' and 'disaster' are just a few of the words they use to describe Brexit.

Seth Brundle

DUP will be sticking to their position on the WA and CM2.0...

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1112716902395072512

Professor Moriarty

Seth Brundle wrote: »

DUP will be sticking to their position on the WA and CM2.0...

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1112716902395072512

They want a Hard Brexit. They just don't have the guts to say so.

Water John

Great to see Lb backing Norway +, pity DUP didn't follow. It should garnish a good few Tory votes also.

badtoro

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

badtoro wrote: »

I'm an Irish farmer and I think the UK should leave, for the good of the EU. I see no way how the UK's internal omnishambles can be healed in the short or medium term. From the education to political systems, to the media and peoples own ignorance. I genuinely fear a remaining UK with a malcontent government could actually do more serious damage to the EU than Brexit.

Pardon the financial pun, but Irish farmers need to focus on where their pounds are coming from rather than fretting over the pennies.

The IFA and the ICMSA have a different perspective. 'Armageddon', 'devastation' and 'disaster' are just a few of the words they use to describe Brexit.

Yes and no. Farming has been brainwashed into this "production" narrative. From the supposedly neutral advisory side, to the representative side, to the political side. The feeding of the 9 billion by 2050 nonsense etc. Production in and of itself is hugely expensive, concrete and steel, and worse again shiny steel (machinery). Bad planning and policy primarily to make politicians look good and keep farmers in a subservient doff your cap position has led to what seems like a constant feed and income crisis.

What I'm getting at is farmers have allowed themselves to be led down the garden path at huge personal cost, by people who do not have their interests at heart. Until, particularly the low income farmers who are in the vast majority, start to invest in some critical thinking they will stay as they are, in the dark, being fed sh1t.

As for the first crowd you mention they don't even represent the majority of their own members. If you want proof of that look into the last CAP, how they fought against redistribution which would have benefitted most farmers rather than fewer, and watch what they do in the next CAP.

Water John

Peston is putting Norway + at 307 For 253 Against.

VinLieger

Water John wrote: »

Peston is putting Norway + at 307 For 253 Against.

But havent Norway and the rest of EFTA basically said they don't want to let the UK in because they are afraid of them messing it up?

BobbyBobberson

VinLieger wrote: »

But havent Norway and the rest of EFTA basically said they don't want to let the UK in because they are afraid of them messing it up?

Certainly heavily hinted at didnt they? Imagine seeing the burning wreck that is the UK and them knocking at the door asking to come in. My god.

tuxy

VinLieger wrote: »

But havent Norway and the rest of EFTA basically said they don't want to let the UK in because they are afraid of them messing it up?

They have, I think it would have to be a different agreement between the EU and UK but based on that model for it to work.

robinph

If Brexit becomes a version where we are still in the EU, still follow all the rules, still pay all the bills and just don't send any MEP's to Brussels then I can live with that. Unfortunately it would mean that the lies they were saying about not having a voice in Europe would actually become true, but I think due to Brexit fatigue people wouldn't care and as long as there were no new regulations about bendy bananas sent the UK's way for a few years people would soon forget about it.

Would then just be a long game of gradually getting the UK back into fully participating again over the next several decades such that nobody notices.

LeinsterDub

First Up wrote: »

.

With that sort of incisive thinking, you really have to wonder.

The same thinking that rejected Nice and Lisbon one. 'Sure this will pass anyway and I'll give the government a bit of a kicking'

Anteayer

Balanadan wrote: »

Between the currency risk and the risk of tariffs in the event of no deal, we're holding off on doing new business with companies in the UK, only purchasing for confirmed orders or when we see value. We're ready to shift a lot of purchasing out of the UK to other European countries.

Same here. We've been actively removing UK companies from supply chains. It's nothing personal or political. They're just far, far too risky if you're dealing with tight margins.

On a personal level, it's actually quite sad to have to do that to companies that in many cases you'd have built up a good relationship with over the years, but you can't really sit exposed to this stuff and the outcome is still totally unpredictable.

I'd suspect that even if Article 50 is ultimately withdrawn, the UK has probably done enough self harm to cause a recession and damage that will last for years to come. There's trade being diverted elsewhere and it's not necessarily going to come back all that easily. Winning new customers is a hell of a lot more difficult than keeping existing ones happy.

Headshot

Guys do we know what indicative votes have been chosen to vote on later?

mafc

Headshot wrote: »

Guys do we know what indicative votes have been chosen to vote on later?

Not yet announced by Bercow

RobertKK

Norway+ depends on Norway and other EFTA members, they din't seem to want the UK in EFTA.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/27/efta-countries-wary-of-commons-interest-in-norway-brexit-option

robinph

Headshot wrote: »

Guys do we know what indicative votes have been chosen to vote on later?

They haven't yet had the vote on if they are going to allow themselves to have the votes later on. If last week was anything to go by though Bercow stated the options that he'd picked straight away after the vote to have the votes passed.

Strazdas

Anteayer wrote: »

Same here. We've been actively removing UK companies from supply chains. It's nothing personal or political. They're just far, far too risky if you're dealing with tight margins.

On a personal level, it's actually quite sad to have to do that to companies that in many cases you'd have built up a good relationship with over the years, but you can't really sit exposed to this stuff and the outcome is still totally unpredictable.

I'd suspect that even if Article 50 is ultimately withdrawn, the UK has probably done enough self harm to cause a recession and damage that will last for years to come. There's trade being diverted elsewhere and it's not necessarily going to come back all that easily. Winning new customers is a hell of a lot more difficult than keeping existing ones happy.

A very good point. There are probably plenty of people who think that if Brexit is cancelled, the UK reverts back to as if it is June 22nd, 2016 and nothing has actually happened. Unfortunately, they have inflicted massive reputational damage on themselves and made themselves look like a banana republic. The business and EU citizens they have driven away can not be recovered.

listermint

Deleted User wrote: »

Planned obsolescence and excessive consumerism are the greatest risks to the environment short of nuclear war, but these are nothing to do with Brexit.

For many leave voters, a rebellion against globalization was part of the reason they want to leave the EU. The EU representing many of the features of globalization that puts some people at a disadvantage as big business brings in cheap labour to deny them a career and export's the profit to another country to avoid tax.
The fear of a federal US of Europe, led by Germany was also a great fear amongst many leave voters as well.
Just calling them racist bigots, is simply avoiding the reasons many voted the way they did.

The Idea that the ordinary joe on the street and any notions about a rebellion against globalisation is hilarious. Putting in nuanced views such as those you outlined where old fashioned 'they took der jobs' will suffice is skewing the story.


The votes where 2 fold. A protest vote against the government of the day and anti migrant. The EU really didnt come into the serious discussion. Its only in the serious discussion now, 2 years later. Lets get a bit real about that.

Strazdas

RobertKK wrote: »

Norway+ depends on Norway and other EFTA members, they din't seem to want the UK in EFTA.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/27/efta-countries-wary-of-commons-interest-in-norway-brexit-option

With very good reason. A hard right Brexit government and PM might see EFTA as merely being a stepping stone out of Europe, not a way of getting back in.

Hurrache

If the government succeeds in the vote coming up, there may be no indicative voting at all.

ancapailldorcha

Hurrache wrote: »

If the government succeeds in the vote coming up, there may be no indicative voting at all.

What vote?