Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

First Up

listermint wrote:

The votes where 2 fold. A protest vote against the government of the day and anti migrant. The EU really didnt come into the serious discussion. Its only in the serious discussion now, 2 years later. Lets get a bit real about that.

Correct. Visceral nationalism.

Anteayer

Strazdas wrote: »

With very good reason. A hard right Brexit government and PM might see EFTA as merely being a stepping stone out of Europe, not a way of getting back in.

The biggest issue with EFTA and the EEA is the UK would end up dominating the structures and it doesn't really have much in common with the likes of Norway and Iceland - small, social democratic countries with a lot of focus on pragmatism and stability.

The UK's into neoliberal economics and is into throwing its weight around. The EFTA members would be swamped by it.

Why would EFTA want them? They're not offering anything other than chaos really and are aggressively hostile towards any kind of multilateralism or sharing of power.

The Tories only see EFTA as a back door into the EU markets. They're not really interested in playing ball with small players, it's just a means to an end.

Can you imagine right wing tories considering Norway an equal partner?!

Hurrache

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

What vote?

I'm sure the house has to vote on the motion of business for this afternoon and Wednesday. If the government whip against it, which I understand they will, they can shut down any indicative voting today and debate on it on Wednesday. Their argument is that it's undemocratic to cede control to allowing the house dictate orders of business, or something equally as madly ironic as that.

ancapailldorcha

Hurrache wrote: »

I'm sure the house has to vote on the motion of business for this afternoon and Wednesday. If the government whip against it, which I understand they will, they can shut down any indicative voting today and debate on it on Wednesday. Their argument is that it's undemocratic to cede control to allowing the house dictate orders of business, or something equally as madly ironic as that.

Thought you referring to yet another "Meaningful Vote".

God, that was just a farce. Such a waste of time in the Commons.

Robert McGrath

This is interesting.

The UK Electoral Commission are basically refusing to investigate any further breaches of electoral law by Vote Leave, because essentially they think a finding on one offence is enough

https://mobile.twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1112736782913814528

Robert McGrath

Also, the second offence for which there is prima facie evidence involves the DUP and the single biggest donation in the history of NI politics

10000maniacs

Water John wrote: »

Peston is putting Norway + at 307 For 253 Against.

How is Norway + the Customs Union any different then being a member of the EU?
They may as well stay as doing so will at least ensure they will have a say on EU decisions.

Balanadan

What time do we tune in for the results of the votes?

Kermit.de.frog

10000maniacs wrote: »

How is Norway + the Customs Union any different then being a member of the EU?
They may as well stay as doing so will at least ensure they will have a say on EU decisions.

It's far worse than being a member.

UK would have to accept all the current and future EU rules with no say.

It makes Britain a vassal state of the EU which I highly doubt Britons would accept.

322 vs 277 for even having the votes. Surprised it had that many Noes.

Irish Praetorian

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

What vote?

MV4: Back for more.

Imreoir2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's far worse than being a member.

UK would have to accept all the current and future EU rules with no say.

It makes Britain a vassal state of the EU which I highly doubt Britons would accept.

This suggests that you believe that Norway is currently a vassal state of the EU? Is this correct?

An Ciarraioch

Suddenly, the Boles Plan moves ahead of a plain CU as favourite for approval - DUP will again abstain on former.

VinLieger

Kay Burley specifically mentioning part of the Customs Union 2.0 proposal is seeking membership of EFTA which simply wont happen for the various reason previously posted here.

ath262

up for debate
C - Customs Union
D - Common Market 2.0
E - Confirmatory public vote
G - Parliamentary Supremacy

Professor Moriarty

Deleted User wrote: »

322 vs 277 for even having the votes. Surprised it had that many Noes.

There must have been about 50 abstentions. So a good few Tories didn't back the government despite the whip.

10000maniacs

Imreoir2 wrote: »

This suggests that you believe that Norway is currently a vassal state of the EU? Is this correct?

Probably Norway have no problems with any EU decisions.
I remember they negotiated their own separate fisheries agreement with the EU a number of years ago. They are also not 100% aligned to CAP.

Kermit.de.frog

Imreoir2 wrote: »

This suggests that you believe that Norway is currently a vassal state of the EU? Is this correct?

Yes, of course it is.

No seat at the table but have to abide by the rules.

Small country though.

UK is different.

Far better off being a full member.

Akrasia

robinph wrote: »

.... but I think due to Brexit fatigue people wouldn't care and as long as there were no new regulations about bendy bananas sent the UK's way for a few years people would soon forget about it.

Would then just be a long game of gradually getting the UK back into fully participating again over the next several decades such that nobody notices.

Two chances of that I'm afraid. The EU bringing in speed limiters on cars and changes to copyright laws for social media are two examples that the likes of The Daily Mail and The Express can easily distort to make it look like 'faceless EU beaurocrats want to control your lives'

SimonTemplar

Do we know if the votes will use the traditional lobby method or will it be another paper ballot?

Akrasia

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

There must have been about 50 abstentions. So a good few Tories didn't back the government despite the whip.

It's nuts that the EU gave the UK 2 weeks to come back with concrete proposals or else they crash out of the EU, and the government are actively whipping against the prospect of the house agreeing to any concrete proposals.

aidyhawse

SimonTemplar wrote: »

Do we know if the votes will use the traditional lobby method or will it be another paper ballot?

Ballot paper again, I believe.

Robert McGrath

Robert McGrath wrote: »

This is interesting.

The UK Electoral Commission are basically refusing to investigate any further breaches of electoral law by Vote Leave, because essentially they think a finding on one offence is enough

https://mobile.twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1112736782913814528

The suggestion on Twitter seems to be that the Electoral Commission were leaned on by the May government and encouraged not to investigate the DUP due to May’s reliance on their support

Zubeneschamali

10000maniacs wrote: »

How is Norway + the Customs Union any different then being a member of the EU?

The Norwegians think it is better. Likewise the Swiss prefer their model to full membership.

The Norwegians and Swiss stalled their EU memberships at those points for many of the same reasons people quote for Breexit - sovereignty, independence. The Swiss would like to end Free Movement, too, but have not succeeded.

So it is not just the mad Brits.

Akrasia

All 4 of the Motions on the table tonight are pretty good outcomes in my opinion.

Is the government whipping against all of them?

Zubeneschamali

Akrasia wrote: »

Is the government whipping against all of them?

They should rename the whip as the wet noodle - it seems to have about as much effect.

prawnsambo

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The Norwegians think it is better. Likewise the Swiss prefer their model to full membership.

The Norwegians and Swiss stalled their EU memberships at those points for many of the same reasons people quote for Breexit - sovereignty, independence. The Swiss would like to end Free Movement, too, but have not succeeded.

So it is not just the mad Brits.

Most of the main Norwegian political parties would prefer to be full members. It's just been difficult to get the people to agree on it. Last referendum was in 1994 and was defeated by 52.2/47.8% with an 87% turnout.

otnomart

And Greenland left of course.

This article was published in June 2016 on the eve of the Referendum: "In 1982, the largest island in the world voted to leave the Union, but it took until 1985 until negotiations were completed, following more than 100 meetings with EU officials. That talks were so tough for an island with a population of 56,000 doesn't bode well for a swift divorce if the U.K. does opt for Brexit.

“The negotiations were a surprisingly unpleasant job,” Lars Vesterbirk, Greenland's former representative to the EU who led the negotiations, told POLITICO. “The EU member states would not take us seriously because they were not willing to accept that you should or could leave.”

https://www.politico.eu/article/greenland-exit-warning-to-britain-brexit-eu-referendum-europe-vote-news-denmark/

badtoro

Ken Clarke talking a lot of sense, particularly on Trumps plans for the UK market.