Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Saying No Deal is the real Brexit is like someone deciding to leave Ireland, and 2 years later saying that the only real option is to declare themselves Emperor of Rockall.


Barking mad stuff.

Even if you could claim there was a certain section in favour of it, there's no way you can say 52% of the population voted for No Deal in 2016. Had that been on the ballot paper, it would have received a thumping defeat.

devnull

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Just confirming that the votes are at 8pm?

Probably will be a damp squib, you'll have the same tactical voting as last week. This is why you saw the SNP and The Independent Group abstaining against things that they would be supportive of last week.

I think that once again we'll see people abstain from stuff they actually support tonight, because of the fact that they support another option more and don't want to help their second preference get over the line at the expense of their first preference.

That is why voting in order of preference would be a better solution ideally.

An Ciarraioch

devnull wrote: »

Probably will be a damp squib, you'll have the same tactical voting as last week. This is why you saw the SNP and The Independent Group abstaining against things that they would be supportive of last week.

I think that once again we'll see people abstain from stuff they actually support tonight, because of the fact that they support another option more and don't want to help their second preference get over the line at the expense of their first preference.

That is why voting in order of preference would be a better solution ideally.

SNP are backing Common Market, and Labour are actively whipping for the first three options, suggesting the CU and 2.0 are likely to pass.

Enzokk

I don't know who is talking right now but he is making very valid points against the Customs Union. The UK will give way their power in trade to the EU, yet he is for May's deal which is a customs union until at least 2021 and maybe even 2022 when they are out. Maybe the argument can be made that it is not permanent but we know if you want to keep the Irish border open you will either have to isolate NI or you are in the customs union. Back to the start again.

Edit: It was Greg Hands speaking and this sums it up from Ian Dunt,

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1112783941331767301

An Ciarraioch

The Tory poll malaise continues:

http://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1112501457188806659

Strazdas

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The Tory poll malaise continues:

http://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1112501457188806659

This doesn't seem to take into account Change UK intend running candidates if there is an election

Enzokk

Strazdas wrote: »

This doesn't seem to take into account Change UK intend running candidates if there is an election

I suspect they will only take away support from the Conservatives and UKIP in the main. It would be interesting to see if there is to be an election exactly what happens and how this would reset priorities for the main parties. If the Tories see that they are only losing votes due to not going no-deal Brexit they could pivot that way and abandon the middle ground, or they could move towards the middle and a soft Brexit or even Remain and lose their fringe which caused this to happen.

gooch2k9

Sammy Wilson more worried about what the English voted for than what NI voters did.

DUP will make themselves pariahs in that house in future.

Professor Moriarty

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Sammy Wilson more worried about what the English voted for than what NI voters did.

DUP will make themselves pariahs in that house in future.

They're going to abstain on all proposals because reasons. At least they've stopped saying 'No'.

awec

What time is the vote?

The tory benches are pretty much empty, are we going to see large scale abstentions?

Edit: vote is now.

Itssoeasy

awec wrote: »

What time is the vote?

The tory benches are pretty much empty, are we going to see large scale abstentions?

Voting had started and will go on for thirty minutes. The sitting is suspended. It's a utter farce. I was talking with a friend at the weekend and he's previously been very willing to discuss brexit and the pros and cons of it as he sees it. Before I even said one word to him when I saw him he said "I'm not going to even try to discuss brexit" my point is it's gotten to the point where ever thinking about it makes people annoyed.

funkey_monkey

Why are there so many in favour of the Customs Union?
I don't see what the is to gain from it as they will lose their vetoes, ability to shape the rules, etc.

uptherebels

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Why are there so many in favour of the Customs Union?
I don't see what the is to gain from it as they will lose their vetoes, ability to shape the rules, etc.

When they have limited options and not picking one, means no deal brexit, what do you do?

Loafing Oaf

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Before I even said one word to him when I saw him he said "I'm not going to even try to discuss brexit" my point is it's gotten to the point where ever thinking about it makes people annoyed.

Even cabinet ministers if the BBC's Nick Watt is to be believed...

Strazdas

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Why are there so many in favour of the Customs Union?
I don't see what the is to gain from it as they will lose their vetoes, ability to shape the rules, etc.

Anna Soubry says she is opposed to it for this very reason and won't support it or EFTA

funkey_monkey

uptherebels wrote: »

When they have limited options and not picking one, means no deal brexit, what do you do?

Remain. Customs Union is leaving but losing your voice.

Kermit.de.frog

Just to note the results won't be given on the votes until sometime after 10.

Imreoir2

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

If we passed a law stating that you need to spend at least two weeks in Ireland every year to keep your Irish passport we'd bring in a lot cash monies.

Perhaps, but we would make an awful lot of Irish citizens living and working in other countries stateless, not everyone living in the States or Australia who holds an Irish passport can afford, or indeed get the time off work to make a trip back to the auld sod every year.

54and56

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Why are there so many in favour of the Customs Union?
I don't see what the is to gain from it as they will lose their vetoes, ability to shape the rules, etc.

It's called a Pyrrhic victory for "Brexit" i.e. give up a huge amount of valuable items such as influence on decision making, veto capability, rebates, exclusion from the Euro etc etc but in return you get to technically leave only to realise shortly after the leave celebration dies down that in leaving you've actually gove from a strong influential position within the EU to a weak associate who have to take rules handed out by the EU .......... national pride / ego can drive some very strange behaviour

ShooterSF

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Remain. Customs Union is leaving but losing your voice.

Not really an option for indicative votes on how to leave though. Which is what the parliament voted for. And if they vote down every option again they'll rightly be ridiculed for it so I'm guessing for a lot of them this is the most palatable of the bunch.

First Up

funkey_monkey wrote:

Remain. Customs Union is leaving but losing your voice.

You can't leave a club and expect to keep all the benefits of membership.

If Remain is off the table, CU is the most realistic compromise - they "regain control" of their borders and retain free access to the market that takes 44% of their exports - and can keep the complex supply chains in both directions. It also sorts the Irish issue.

Yes, they will have to comply with EU standards but the EU market will require that anyway and it means they can at least try to replicate the EU's trade agreements with third countries.

But that's a common sense, practical view and we know how little part that plays in the Brexit mindset.

MikeSoys

uptherebels wrote: »

When they have limited options and not picking one, means no deal brexit, what do you do?

i still feel they will not allow a no deal...

devnull

Libdems continue to play Russian Roulette and will abstain on anything but revoke or peoples vote.

Personally instead of abstaining on things they want which have a chance of winning a vote and voting for things that don't, I think everyone should be voting for all options that are acceptable to them.

But it seems some of them are so desperate to get revoke article 50, they're willing to risk a no deal to get it when they can tonight prevent that. This makes them no better than the other reckless politicians.

With there not being another indicative vote planned or allowed, the Lib Dems and The Independent Group could tonight condemn their country to a No Deal brexit by their desperation for remain with no way back.

An Ciarraioch

devnull wrote: »

Libdems continue to play Russian Roulette and will abstain on anything but revoke or peoples vote.

Personally instead of abstaining on things they want which have a chance of winning a vote and voting for things that don't, I think everyone should be voting for all options that are acceptable to them.

But it seems some of them are so desperate to get revoke article 50, they're willing to risk a no deal to get it when they can tonight prevent that. This makes them no better than the other reckless politicians.

With there not being another indicative vote planned or allowed, the Lib Dems and The Independent Group could tonight condemn their country to a No Deal brexit by their desperation for remain with no way back.

Still, at least the DUP abstaining on all four votes tonight enhances the likelihood of progress.

Akrasia

devnull wrote: »

Libdems continue to play Russian Roulette and will abstain on anything but revoke or peoples vote.

Personally instead of abstaining on things they want which have a chance of winning a vote and voting for things that don't, I think everyone should be voting for all options that are acceptable to them.

But it seems some of them are so desperate to get revoke article 50, they're willing to risk a no deal to get it when they can tonight prevent that. This makes them no better than the other reckless politicians.

With there not being another indicative vote planned or allowed, the Lib Dems and The Independent Group could tonight condemn their country to a No Deal brexit by their desperation for remain with no way back.

Actually, i think they're right. The lib dems are a remain party, they campaigned on it in the last election. The best thing for the UK is to remain. Everything else is objectively worse.

In the game of chicken, if all other options are off the table, when the EU refuse an extension and its too late to accept Mays WA, it comes down to a choice between no deal or revoke, its a good bet that parliament will settle on revoke. If they refuse to pull the parachute cord and crash out, that will be the fault of the Tories, not the Lib Dems.

If a soft brexit gains majority support, the remainers will likely lose and the UK will leave and lose a lot of status and influence

bilston

If no majority is reached for any of the options tonight then what happens?

May can't seriously go back to Parliament for a 4th time with her deal?

Robert McGrath

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta wrote: »

Has there been any coverage on this on traditional media or discussion in HoC?

The Guardian is reporting it, anyway

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/01/electoral-commission-new-vote-leave-investigation-not-in-public-interest?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet

Kermit.de.frog

A majority may well be reached which means the hard brexiters will be terrified of customs union membership and thus May will bring back her deal with them knowing it's the hardest Brexit possible.

That's what I think will happen.

Spook_ie

First Up wrote: »

You can't leave a club and expect to keep all the benefits of membership.

If Remain is off the table, CU is the most realistic compromise - they "regain control" of their borders and retain free access to the market that takes 44% of their exports - and can keep the complex supply chains in both directions. It also sorts the Irish issue.

Yes, they will have to comply with EU standards but the EU market will require that anyway and it means they can at least try to replicate the EU's trade agreements with third countries.

But that's a common sense, practical view and we know how little part that plays in the Brexit mindset.

Doesn't really sort the Irish problem, a CU would normally still have a border, EU/Ireland/UK don't want one so still stuck with a border somewhere

Beechwoodspark

Laura Ks Brexit feature the Brexit storm has just started on bbc 2