Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

gooch2k9

Nicola Sturgeon is going to be delighted if that happens. DUP aren't only furthering Irish unity, but Scottish independence.

Water John

I suppose they'll ask Nicola along too.
They want to be regarded as just another part of the UK.
'All the animals are equal but some are more equal than others.'

Enzokk

Nody wrote: »

Have to say I'm scratching my head on number 1; why would EU treat NI differently if UK is part of the same CU? I can't even figure out how or what they could do as most ideas I can come up with would be blatant WTO breaches.

Number 2; sure promise it away but next government is highly unlikely to be dependent on DUP so that's basically asking for something which they will never get in practice once it matters but I guess the two combined creates a nice ladder to climb down on for the third vote.

Well number one and two seem linked as it seems to me that the DUP still believe the unicorns is out there in terms of Brexit. It seems a non-runner to me, then again I am not desperate like May so I think this will be given the go-ahead before a row back as the this would surely be close to a breach of the GFA and not showing one party any favourable treatment (or something like that according to the spirit of the GFA).

hotmail.com

Having the DUP involved in any future negotiations will be met with anger among the Nationalist community.

listermint

hotmail.com wrote: »

Having the DUP involved in any future negotiations will be met with anger among the Nationalist community.

It won't happen anyway so no point discussing it

Strazdas

Nody wrote: »

Have to say I'm scratching my head on number 1; why would EU treat NI differently if UK is part of the same CU? I can't even figure out how or what they could do as most ideas I can come up with would be blatant WTO breaches.

Number 2; sure promise it away but next government is highly unlikely to be dependent on DUP so that's basically asking for something which they will never get in practice once it matters but I guess the two combined creates a nice ladder to climb down on for the third vote.

The 'customs union' is only intended to be temporary, a stopgap arrangement. If the DUP are insisting there must be an all UK CU for good, it would mean GB (ie. UK) couldn't actually leave this temporary customs union (because of the Irish backstop).

Nody

Strazdas wrote: »

The 'customs union' is only intended to be temporary, a stopgap arrangement. If the DUP are insisting there must be an all UK CU for good, it would mean GB (ie. UK) couldn't actually leave this temporary customs union (because of the Irish backstop).

But that's my point on number 1; if UK and NI is in a single CU why would EU treat NI differently to mainland UK? Sure 2 makes sense as that will define the future setup and DUP don't want NI to be treated differently (even though in practice the new government after the GE when ever it is will simply ignore them) but that different treatment would only come after UK left the CU.

Overall I can only see number 1 and 2 in practice as an excuse to climb down on their previous claims towards voters. But number 1 simply makes zero sense in all ways; 2 do theoretically have a reason behind it at least.

robindch

Today, Farage started his 435-km (270m in miles sterling) "Brexit Betralay" walk from Sunderland to London in the wind, the rain, beside a cliff and with something between 65 and 70 people taking part.

Hard to know which part failed the hardest - the dreadful weather, the miserable turnout or the troll lorries circling Farage

But for clarity, Greg Jenner's tweet is going to be hard to beat:

https://twitter.com/greg_jenner/status/1106937127705677824

Imreoir2

Deleted User wrote: »

Ireland, as part of the EU has in reality only limited independence, similar to the states in the USA. The only main difference is that the EU's control over the European member states is not quite as comprehensive as the USA's control over the 50 states, and there is not (yet) a federal government in place.

Ireland, just like the UK has maintained full independance as a member state of the EU. There seems to be a misaprehension that the growing interdependance of nations as a result of globalisation and the rules based order that nations have chosen to create somehow reduces the independance of nations, but it does not. Circumstances dictate that membership of the EU is in our national interest, and so we remain. Should circumstances change, and should membership of the EU become detremental to our national interest, we can choose to leave.

There is a fundemental difference between the position of Ireland within the EU and the position of a US state. Ireland is a member of the Union by choice, has an equal say in the running of the union with every other member and can leave by choice at any time. The last time a state tried to leave the US, their leaders eventually found themselves in prision with the threat of execution for treason over their heads.

Spanish Eyes

It is a sad indictment on the uk really.

They had no clue what they were actually voting for apart for a visceral thing.

So here we are. Extensions and so on.

I honestly cannot get my head around it TBH.

Imreoir2

Imreoir2 wrote: »

There is a fundemental difference between the position of Ireland within the EU and the position of a US state. Ireland is a member of the Union by choice, has an equal say in the running of the union with every other member and can leave by choice at any time. The last time a state tried to leave the US, their leaders eventually found themselves in prison with the threat of execution for treason over their heads.

It is worth remembering that at independence, the US consisted of 13 states, over time as the pioneers moved west, the new states that were created elected to join or in some cases such as Alaska were bought from their previous owners, plus a war with Mexico to gain some southern states. Quite different to how the EEC was created, which was formed to prevent war in mainland Europe ever again breaking out between the (western) central powers of Europe.

Laois_Man

I note The Observer claim to have seen a leaked document that the EU have completely lost all regard for T May (what? only now???) and is preparing its strategy for a soon to be new PM.

They also lay out the conditions that the EU will set for an article 50 extension. e.g. the May must agree that neither her nor her successor will want a say in EU planning over the duration of their extended membership. There is worry that the UK might get an extension until June 30th, then they do not take part in the EU elections in May, but then at some point in between the EU elections and June 30th, they decide to revoke article 50, leaving the EU in chaos!

They also say some Torys are agreeing to back May's deal on the condition that she announces she is going during the Summer

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/16/eu-war-gaming-for-fall-of-theresa-may-government

Laois_Man

Laois_Man wrote: »

I note The Observer claim to have seen a leaked document that the EU have completely lost all regard for T May (what? only now???) and is preparing its strategy for a soon to be new PM.

They also lay out the conditions that the EU will set for an article 50 extension. e.g. the May must agree that neither her nor her successor will want a say in EU planning over the duration of their extended membership. There is worry that the UK might get an extension until June 30th, then they do not take part in the EU elections in May, but then at some point in between the EU elections and June 30th, they decide to revoke article 50, leaving the EU in chaos!

They also say some Torys are agreeing to back May's deal on the condition that she announces she is going during the Summer

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/16/eu-war-gaming-for-fall-of-theresa-may-government

If a General Election is forced on the UK (before June, assuming an extension is allowed) by a vote of no confidence or some other government reaction to how well (:rolleyes:) the negotiations are going, then all bets are off.

Imreoir2

Deleted User wrote: »

It is worth remembering that at independence, the US consisted of 13 states, over time as the pioneers moved west, the new states that were created elected to join or in some cases such as Alaska were bought from their previous owners, plus a war with Mexico to gain some southern states. Quite different to how the EEC was created, which was formed to prevent war in mainland Europe ever again breaking out between the (western) central powers of Europe.

Which is part of the reason that the EU is fundementally different to the US and Ireland's place in the EU is not analogous to that of a US state.

Strazdas

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

It is a sad indictment on the uk really.

They had no clue what they were actually voting for apart for a visceral thing.

So here we are. Extensions and so on.

I honestly cannot get my head around it TBH.

"Leaving the EU" was always an abstract concept being pushed by that old fraud Farage in past years. Where the UK totally lost its marbles was in holding a referendum on leaving and not even having a plan to leave scribbled out on a scrap of paper. What could possibly go wrong.

Laois_Man

Deleted User wrote: »

If a General Election is forced on the UK (before June, assuming an extension is allowed) by a vote of no confidence or some other government reaction to how well (:rolleyes:) the negotiations are going, then all bets are off.

I think what they are expecting is that May will be in charge until withdrawal comes into effect, and then be replaced by a new Tory party leader, without any general election!

Very few MPs will do anything to bring about a general election right now - there's a good chance it would be the largest mass sacking of MPs the UK has ever seen!

Headshot

robindch wrote: »

Today, Farage started his 435-km (270m in miles sterling) "Brexit Betralay" walk from Sunderland to London in the wind, the rain, beside a cliff and with something between 65 and 70 people taking part.

Hard to know which part failed the hardest - the dreadful weather, the miserable turnout or the troll lorries circling Farage

But for clarity, Greg Jenner's tweet is going to be hard to beat:

https://twitter.com/greg_jenner/status/1106937127705677824

That truck needs to following Farage everywhere.

Infini

Deleted User wrote: »

If a General Election is forced on the UK (before June, assuming an extension is allowed) by a vote of no confidence or some other government reaction to how well (:rolleyes:) the negotiations are going, then all bets are off.

I would say the odds would be at that stage would be along the lines of "Dont let your áss hit the door on the way out". There comes a point where it's simply gonna be better to just let them suffer the consequences of their own incompetent stupidity for being so utterly arrogant and stupid and just concentrate on both containment of the damage in the EU and looking after those Brit's living in EU states who have been affected by their governments coillective idiocy.

Headshot wrote: »

That truck needs to following Farage everywhere.

It's a portable búllshít detector! Should be used to basically highlight the utter hypocracy of these tools 24/7 until they finally shut up with their deceptive BS.

An Claidheamh

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/1106946793097646081


It's a minor point but I also raised an eyebrow at that statement. Ireland is not a "State", it's supposed to be a sovereign country.

I wouldn't mind if he started acting more like the leader of a sovereign country rather than a mouthpiece for Brussels all the time. :rolleyes: He can do that and still protect Ireland's position.

He's a mouthpiece because pig headed British reporters ask him and need to be told information by him.

Explain what else he could or could not do?

By the way, "Guido Fawkes" aka Paul Staines has Irish citizenship and passport.

Yet he's another fella making money out of flag waving serfs in UKslavia.

No one pointing that out on twitter... but why would they?

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/people/brewing-up-a-political-blogging-storm-1.530526?mode=amp

Brexiters are truly the dregs of society

An Claidheamh

Working class heroes wrote: »

I’d say you are in a very small minority of people with that view. IMO.

So does Kermit and the British believe that for the last forty years their PMs were regional governors of the EU with no independence, (even when Britain was still robbing countries of their independence)?

If so, how come they're only mentioning about Ireland now?

Alternatively, they're powerless jingoists, worse they're stupid powerless jingoists, worse they're stupid powerless jingoists who are begging Ireland for favours and insulting them at the same time.

Gonna be fun in two weeks when the "great British public" turn on the Tories and denounce them as traitors.

I'll have my popcorn ready.

Enzokk

Der Speigel has a scathing article on May.

The Prime Minister of Humiliation

Yes, that is the headline and the article doesn't get easier for May. There is this part which should sting any person when it is said about them.

"She is mean. She is rude. She is cruel. She is stupid. I have heard that from almost everyone who has dealt with her," Parris says. He said he had never expected this much hatred, "and that is not a word I use lightly."

The worst thing, though, he says, is May's inability to win over others to her position, to compromise and to lead. "It's crazy," says Parris. "That someone like her would end up in a job where the most important thing is to communicate, answer questions, make decisions. That is, I believe, more of a psychological than a political problem."

That seems to correspond with her actions and also her work at the Home Office. No compassion and cruelty and a stubbornness that makes it almost impossible to work with the opposition.

I still think she gets her deal through this coming week, but I think that is going to cause more chaos than we are expecting. No-one likes the deal and whoever takes over from her, the bargain to get her deal through will be for her to resign, will look to dismantle it as quick as possible and the damage from that will be just as bad, if not worse, than just ripping the plaster off right now.

Joe_ Public

Enzokk wrote: »

Der Speigel has a scathing article on May.

The Prime Minister of Humiliation

Yes, that is the headline and the article doesn't get easier for May. There is this part which should sting any person when it is said about them.



That seems to correspond with her actions and also her work at the Home Office. No compassion and cruelty and a stubbornness that makes it almost impossible to work with the opposition.

I still think she gets her deal through this coming week, but I think that is going to cause more chaos than we are expecting. No-one likes the deal and whoever takes over from her, the bargain to get her deal through will be for her to resign, will look to dismantle it as quick as possible and the damage from that will be just as bad, if not worse, than just ripping the plaster off right now.

History is going to be particularly savage on her i believe. Not because she is cruel or unpopular but because she is indeed stupid and chronically unfit for high office. Remember “trousergate” when she blithely donned 2000k worth of designer gear for a soft focus newspaper spread that was supposed to show her connection to the working man and woman? That just proved how out of touch she was as well as the advice she was getting.

From the day she took office lots of people, including her own top civil servants in brussels, were warning her that they were on a collision course with chaos the route they were going. Her response? Get rid or silence them and surround herself with lickspittles who only told her what she wanted to hear.

Worst britsh pm ever probably, certainly since the war anyway.

ancapailldorcha

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Worst britsh pm ever probably, certainly since the war anyway.

Surely her predecessor was worse, no?

He was repeatedly warned against calling the referendum to placate his backbenchers and his party's right. But because he won a similar gamble in 2014 and because he was a PR man with little interest in actually leading the country or building a vision of it he chose to gamble again.

Chamberlain in fairness didn't vote for the second world war. He secured an accord with a foreign leader which he expected would be honored. Hindsight 20:20 and all that.

Cameron on the other hand enabled the public to vote for this crisis and then scarpered. It's an entirely British creation.

Tell me how

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Surely her predecessor was worse, no?

He was repeatedly warned against calling the referendum to placate his backbenchers and his party's right. But because he won a similar gamble in 2014 and because he was a PR man with little interest in actually leading the country or building a vision of it he chose to gamble again.

Chamberlain in fairness didn't vote for the second world war. He secured an accord with a foreign leader which he expected would be honored. Hindsight 20:20 and all that.

Cameron on the other hand enabled the public to vote for this crisis and then scarpered. It's an entirely British creation.

He did create the mess. But, for sheer ineptitude across the whole range of leadership duties, May probably takes the gold.

Calling a GE, placating hard brexiteers, publishing of red lines, invoking article 50, selection of cabinet ministers, PR appearances, DUP bedfellows, tone to the EU and potential allies.

And, receiving a special award for being so bad that you still lag in the polls to Theresa May is, Jeremy Corbyn.

Water John

Looks like LB will offer to abstain on her Deal in return for a 2nd Ref. I presume this would be after her 3rd defeat on Tues/Wed.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/17/labour-plan-commons-vote-second-referendum

I haven't seen Corbyn on Sophie Ridge this morning.

I also suspect after it's 3rd defeat, Bercow will be of a mind not to allow a 4th vote unless circumstances change significantly. The will of Parliament has at some point to be accepted by Govn't.

gooch2k9

Dr. Fox telling Sky the vote could be pulled if it looks liekt they're going to lose.

Corbyn signalling a vote of no confidence if vote goes ahead and is rejected again.

Link.

Water John

So 3rd vote may or may not be held. I presume either way LB will then move a no confidence motion. If that fails, they offer to abstain. May would have to take that to the EU Council meeting. May will be forced by the EU to accept the offer.

Akrasia

The Guardian are reporting that Labour are going to officially back the Kyle Wilson amendment that would support Mays deal on the condition that it is put to a confirmatory referendum with an option to cancel Brexit.

If this gets a 3 line whip with labour and a few tories and the tigers support it I think it could be close to passing.

The EU will grant an extension to allow a referendum. They will probably require UK participation in the EUPARL elections. TM and the ERG will rant and rave about another referendum being undemocratic but the opposite is clearly the case.

Shelga

Akrasia wrote: »

The Guardian are reporting that Labour are going to officially back the Kyle Wilson amendment that would support Mays deal on the condition that it is put to a confirmatory referendum with an option to cancel Brexit.

If this gets a 3 line whip with labour and a few tories and the tigers support it I think it could be close to passing.

The EU will grant an extension to allow a referendum. They will probably require UK participation in the EUPARL elections. TM and the ERG will rant and rave about another referendum being undemocratic but the opposite is clearly the case.

Interesting. So what form will the question be on the referendum? May’s deal or Remain? People who want no deal will be outraged, but they are either conmen or morons.

The public at large certainly do not appreciate the fact that if they go ahead with Brexit, it will absolutely dominate the political landscape for the next 5-10 years. Normal policy business will carry on being ground to a halt, like it already is now. There’s no room for anything but Brexit.

Shelga

Shelga wrote: »

Interesting. So what form will the question be on the referendum? May’s deal or Remain? People who want no deal will be outraged, but they are either conmen or morons.

The public at large certainly do not appreciate the fact that if they go ahead with Brexit, it will absolutely dominate the political landscape for the next 5-10 years. Normal policy business will carry on being ground to a halt, like it already is now. There’s no room for anything but Brexit.

Not entirely true, immediately after Thursday's Brexit debate in the HOC there was another debate on housing, probably with only a handful of MPs remaining to debate it. A lot of other business is so overshadowed, anything could he voted through unopposed, when it should have the full attention of parliament.