Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

devnull

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

The political atmosphere is so toxic right now.

https://twitter.com/shivmalik/status/1112828916744507392

In all fairness, this is Mark Francois we are talking about, he's just toxic in general, recently he was saying he didn't accept a vote where the horse he backed lost, as he was in the army and therefore he was trained not to lose and made a big deal about it and lost his cool.

SNIP.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: No more insults please.

mazwell

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I said it about two months ago, the people we expected to be the pragmatic adults in the room, the remainers, are in reality the biggest obsticle to a workable deal because the last thing they want is a workable sustanable Brexit. Better for them to hold out for a referendum, even at the risk of no-deal than support Brexit in any form.

They would prefer a no-deal Brexit to a workable Brexit as a no-deal could potentially be so bad that they will eventually get enought support to be able to overturn it and get back into the EU.

But if there was a no deal Brexit can they just rejoin the EU or would they have to be approved

Itssoeasy

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

PropJoe10 wrote: »

He seemed completely broken. Just said that he accepted that he'd failed at trying to get people onside for his idea and said he couldn't continue to represent a party that wouldn't compromise. Then walked out.

I just caught a second or two of him leaving, and I thought he was choking with emotion.

Such awful times. But fair play to him for standing by his principles. I hope he will be ok, it is very unusual for an MP to quit live in the Commons!

Well going on the tweets under the video on Twitter showing him resigning his principles aren’t getting much support.

MikeSoys

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Firstly it's a British mess solely and completely and secondly how would we be forced to pay?

well we (at our cost) could be responsible for enforing a border using army or garda etc..

Enzokk

So what will happen now? I guess May will still try to put her deal for another go and hope that fear wins through once again. The DUP may have to back it if they are scared enough, then again Sammy Wilson was still very forceful on backing the result and that anything doesn't seem to be doing that. If they don't back the deal my guess is JRM will have to go with them as he said he would and he got a lot of criticism about not backing the DUP as he said he would.

But the gamble is will May allow the UK to leave if her deal fails again or will she ask for an extension. The problem I see is that she has no authority or majority to announce the next steps if her deal fails. She doesn't have to ask for an extension and the EU will not grant one. Labour could call a vote of no-confidence but it may not succeed. She doesn't have the support if her party doesn't follow her for a general election and the polls are suggesting a lot of them will lose their jobs so I don't see them voting for one.

So what can she realistically go back to the EU with as the plan? She can resign but a new leader will take months to be selected and she doesn't want the UK participate in the EU elections. She can call a general election but from her past decisions I doubt she will once again gamble with her party's future especially as there are 2 parties ready to take Tory votes (UKIP and Nigel's new party). She won't have a deal and tonight made apparent there is no consensus for any other deal to pass.

So while it pains me I can see no-deal happening with May resigning soon after and consoling herself that she delivered Brexit. It would be for the next leader to sort out the mess and much like she was given a mess she will pass it on to the next leader to sort out. She managed to make a bad situation worse and that is why she will edge Cameron as the worst ever PM.

ThePanjandrum

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I just caught a second or two of him leaving, and I thought he was choking with emotion.

Such awful times. But fair play to him for standing by his principles. I hope he will be ok, it is very unusual for an MP to quit live in the Commons!

He hasn't resigned his seat though, despite having no mandate to keep it and very little chance of winning if he evr stood for it again. Is that principle?

Imreoir2

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Not only is "No Deal" the default position, it is also the only alternative a majority of MPs has voted for.

When did a majority of MPs vote for no-deal?

igCorcaigh

IT podcast talked about the tightrope that the government walks, not to try bring too much attention to the paradox of pushing for the backstop, and wary of the consequences of a no deal, which is what the backstop is aimed to prevent.

I do not envy their position.

rabbidpeach

mazwell wrote: »

But if there was a no deal Brexit can they just rejoin the EU or would they have to be approved

They'd have to rejoin as a new member and would lose all of their opt-outs. So they'd have to join Schengen and the Euro.

LeinsterDub

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

He hasn't resigned his seat though, despite having no mandate to keep it and very little chance of winning if he evr stood for it again. Is that principle?

People in the UK vote for MPs not the party same as us. His mandate is unchanged

ThePanjandrum

Imreoir2 wrote: »

When did a majority of MPs vote for no-deal?

Article 50. They voted that if there was no agreement they would leave with no deal. We have to assume that they could read a very short piece of text.

Imreoir2

mazwell wrote: »

But if there was a no deal Brexit can they just rejoin the EU or would they have to be approved

They would have to go through the same process as any other applicant. The arch remainers are happy to do this if it means they ultimatly rejoin the UK rather than allow the UK to succeed, even if as a deminished country, outside of the EU.

MikeSoys

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Firstly it's a British mess solely and completely and secondly how would we be forced to pay?

well we (at our cost) could be responsible for enforing a border using army or garda etc..

igCorcaigh

igCorcaigh wrote: »

IT podcast talked about the tightrope that the government walks, not to try bring too much attention to the paradox of pushing for the backstop, and wary of the consequences of a no deal, which is what the backstop is aimed to prevent.

I do not envy their position.

Have to hand it to Tony Donnelly and the rest though, they have been excellent throughout all of this.

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1112831988145287173

McGiver

CU noes:
Independents: 14
Labour: 10
Lib Dems: 5
Green: 1

That's 16 votes if I don't count independents. Could have easily passed.

2nd ref noes:
Independents: 5
Labour: 24

That's 24 labour votes. Could have easily passed.

Common Market:
Independents: 14
Labour: 25
Lib Dems: 4
Green: 1

That's 30 votes if I don't count independents. Could have easily passed. And should have frankly, this was Labour amendment and they were whipping for it.

Pretty much the same labour MPs appear on these three divisions. Hard not to notice Hoey, she should be kicked out of the Lb and join the DUP where she ideologically seem to belong.

ThePanjandrum

LeinsterDub wrote: »

People in the UK vote for MPs not the party same as us. His mandate is unchanged

He was voted in on the basis of the manifesto. He no longer holds to that so the mandate is gone.

Professor Moriarty

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

He hasn't resigned his seat though, despite having no mandate to keep it and very little chance of winning if he evr stood for it again. Is that principle?

How often has that happened?

briany

Nick Boles will sit as a 'progressive Conservative'? Sounds like a bit of a contradictory term.

Panrich

McGiver wrote: »

CU noes:
Independents: 14
Labour: 10
Lib Dems: 5
Green: 1

That's 16 votes if I don't count independents. Could have easily passed.

2nd ref noes:
Independents: 5
Labour: 24

That's 24 labour votes. Could have easily passed.

Common Market:
Independents: 14
Labour: 25
Lib Dems: 4
Green: 1

That's 30 votes if I don't count independents. Could have easily passed. And should have frankly, this was Labour amendment and they were whipping for it.

Pretty much the same labour MPs appear on these three divisions. Hard not to notice Hoey, she should be kicked out of the Lb and join the DUP where she ideologically seem to belong.

There was also 33 'Peoples vote' Labour MPs that abstained from CM 2.0 vote.

Spanish Eyes

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Still a Tory however. How can he stand with these people he fundamentally disagrees with?

I suppose he might hope that he can try to change things from within. If he goes he has zero influence. Not that he has much now either. But still... he is a voice in the wilderness of the Tories.

McGiver

CU noes:
Independents: 14
Labour: 10
Lib Dems: 5
Green: 1

That's 16 votes if I don't count independents. Could have easily passed.

2nd ref noes:
Independents: 5
Labour: 24

That's 24 labour votes. Could have easily passed.

Common Market:
Independents: 14
Labour: 25
Lib Dems: 4
Green: 1

That's 30 votes if I don't count independents. Could have easily passed. And should have frankly, this was Labour amendment and they were whipping for it.

Pretty much the same labour MPs appear on these three divisions. Hard not to notice Hoey, she should be kicked out of the Lb and join the DUP where she ideologically seem to belong.

Enzokk

BarryD2 wrote: »

Maybe but next time a SF spokesperson rails against the hard border down here, they should be regarded with disbelief. You judge them by their actions ultimately and they’ve failed us.

The only people those elected MPs are responsible for is their voters who are in their constituency. They have nothing to do with Ireland. Those voters would have voted for them knowing they would not be taking their seats. We can rail against it and wish they were there to make a difference on certain votes but it is not going to happen and thus the discussion about it is moot.

I know it is frustrating but whether you agree with their stance or not it will not change and thus discussing it again, and I am aware you may not have had the chance to air your views before, is just rehashing the same ground that leads nowhere.

Headshot

I see there was labour MPs voted against the whip again, probably not even a slap on the wrist....

I think there was even from the shadow bench

briany

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

How often has that happened?

I'd imagine, politicians being politicians, that the chance of holding their seat is a factor in a sitting MP deciding to resign from their party.

McGiver

Panrich wrote:

There was also 33 'Peoples vote' Labour MPs that abstained from CM 2.0 vote.

Shocking, what's their point?

LeinsterDub

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

He was voted in on the basis of the manifesto. He no longer holds to that so the mandate is gone.

His mandate is to represent his consistency and the people of it. No more no less.

AllForIt

I would have thought that since the majority of parliament were originally remainers they wold have voted yes for these amendments which could have brought about the UK staying in the CU etc, a softer Brexit. Do those ppl now think they might get an even softer Brexit by bringing about a GE which might lead to revoking Article 50 altogether? If that is what's going on then I think that's despicable. What they may bring about is a total crash out, ironically.

Imreoir2

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Article 50. They voted that if there was no agreement they would leave with no deal. We have to assume that they could read a very short piece of text.

Triggering A50 is not the same as voting for no-deal, this is clear as every time no-deal as an option has been put to the parliament, it has been rejected by a whopping majority.

People really need to stop pretending that a given vote means something significantly different simply because they would like it if it did.

The 17.4 million people voted to leave the EU, they did not vote to leave the customs union or single market, pretending they did is just silly. They were not asked about either of those things.

MP's voted to trigger A50, they did not vote for no-deal, pretending the did is again, silly. They have consistantly rejected that outcome by a greater margin than any other.

Please try to stick within the bounds of reality.