Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

igCorcaigh

I was feeling hopeful earlier today, that something would give.

I still can't believe a no deal will happen.
Anyone here remember the down to the wire GFA?

Here's hoping

Spanish Eyes

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

He hasn't resigned his seat though, despite having no mandate to keep it and very little chance of winning if he evr stood for it again. Is that principle?

He made a public statement in the Commons and that was obviously very difficult for him, and I wouldn't dismiss that.

Apart from Clarke and Grieve, and now Boles.... the rest of them are nodding donkeys, IMV.

LeinsterDub

Headshot wrote: »

I see there was labour MPs voted against the whip again, probably not even a slap on the wrist....

I think there was even from the shadow bench

How can wrists be slapped when JC did it something like 90 times?

MikeSoys

if TM keeps fighting ..there will be no deal...im thinking ..But i think she might just give up and let it unravel itself ..if there was a no deal it would be chaos for 10 weeks or so but likely to be a stronger /leaner country in 10 yrs. i heard if there was a no deal french ports would go on strike (for some reason) whixh wont help ... ill miss M&S...🙄

Professor Moriarty

briany wrote: »

I'd imagine, politicians being politicians, that the chance of holding their seat is a factor in a sitting MP deciding to resign from their party.

Boles's constituency was 61% pro-Leave. I think he is taking a principled stance.

Imreoir2

briany wrote: »

Nick Boles will sit as a 'progressive Conservative'? Sounds like a bit of a contradictory term.

Not really, you can be economically conservative while being socially progressive.

Capt'n Midnight

mazwell wrote: »

But if there was a no deal Brexit can they just rejoin the EU or would they have to be approved

The UK gov have a website for that. But it's pants. In large part to no one knowing if or what a deal or not might look like

http://gov.uk/euexit turns into https://euexit.campaign.gov.uk/

If you go to https://www.gov.uk/guidance/living-in-germany It helpfully points you to the German Governments website which says

Yes, it is possible for the UK to rejoin the EU after leaving. However, under Article 50 para. 5 of the Treaty on European Union, it is clear that it would again be subject to the very long and complex procedure for joining the EU. And all the other EU member states would have to agree to the UK rejoining the EU.

Headshot

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I was feeling hopeful earlier today, that something would give.

I still can't believe a no deal will happen.
Anyone here remember the down to the wire GFA?

Here's hoping

I think it's not as bad as people think

Ken Clarke's Customs Union only 3 away

Peter Kyle's people's vote 12 away

Miles better than what MV has ever done

I think it's very close to something here and hopefully Wednesday might show some more progress

Enzokk

McGiver wrote: »

Hard not to notice Hoey, she should be kicked out of the Lb and join the DUP where she ideologically seem to belong.

To think she is elected in London where the Remain vote was something like 70% or close to it. It is shocking that she is allowed to go against the wishes of her voters and her party and still be allowed to put her name next to it.

I am not in favour of deselection as I think it is open to abuse if an MP may not agree with the leader and is an easy way to get rid of them, but surely there should be more than enough reason for Labour to have suspended her from the party already. She has gone against the whip in important votes and one of them could have lead to an election in 2017 but her vote swung it for the PM. A disgrace to not even think of representing your voters in any way at all when the vote wasn't even close in her constituency.

Laois_Man

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1112831988145287173

The Brexiteer responses to that tweet are mind boggling!

Zubeneschamali

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Firstly it's a British mess solely and completely and secondly how would we be forced to pay?

Well. it's going to cost Ireland a lot more, percentagewise, than Germany. I think the "forced to pay" story is the beginning of trying to poor mouth the Germans and French into giving us free money because Brexit.


Bu everyone knows (because we keep telling them) that we are the fastest growing, nimblest economy in the EU and they will justifiably tell us to grow our way out of it, nimble fúckers that we are.

uck51js9zml2yt

But this way they force NI to vote for unification.

Mr.Nice Guy

https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1112831558682066947

https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1112832718251978752


I've never felt No Deal was likely but there does now seem to be a direction of travel towards it within the Tories which is worrying.

No Deal I think would cause seismic fissures within the UK, but it might serve to hold the Tories together, as well as the on-off relationship with the DUP.

I think a Prime Minister that prioritised country over party would never countenance such a thing.

But this is Theresa May.

ThePanjandrum

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

How often has that happened?

Several cases. When Carswell and Reckless joined UKIP they triggered a by-election, Dick Taverner did in Lincoln when he became and Independent. Those are three that immediately come to mind but there have been others.

rubbledoubledo

The EU have to make a stand at this stage. This will keep dragging on and on. Let them go once and for all

Headshot

LeinsterDub wrote: »

How can wrists be slapped when JC did it something like 90 times?

I presume JC was never sanctioned as he had nothing to lose as he wasn't even on the front bench/Shadow cabinet iirc

Plus things should change when your leader of a party but with JC I doubt anything will

Spanish Eyes

So when is the next vote, Wednesday I think, although I haven't a clue what that's about, it is Groundhog Day for me now.

I think there is to be a five hour Cabinet meeting tomorrow. Is that right?

Anyway, up to the wire AGAIN.

Dreadful stuff. I suppose in a way because of GFA and Backstop etc. our own country is quite concerned now. But glad our Gov is keeping schtum for the moment anyway.

France may retaliate at their ports too, they have form!

Franz Von Peppercorn

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

He was voted in on the basis of the manifesto. He no longer holds to that so the mandate is gone.

That’s not how the west minister system works. You may have noticed some defections from labour and the conservatives recently. No resignations of seats.

Water John

Kyle and Soubry seemed quite optimistic. A further narrowing and joining of the options on Wednesday, they feel will get the numbers. Fair play to their patience.

Panrich

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1112831558682066947

https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1112832718251978752


I've never felt No Deal was likely but there does now seem to be a direction of travel towards it within the Tories which is worrying.

No Deal I think would cause seismic fissures within the UK, but it might serve to hold the Tories together, as well as the on-off relationship with the DUP.

I think a Prime Minister that prioritised country over party would never countenance such a thing.

But this is Theresa May.

I can't see how a no deal will hold the likes of Clark, Grieve etc. They have contempt for Brexiteers. Boles already gone tonight.

Laois_Man

Water John wrote: »

Kyle and Soubry seemed quite optimistic. A further narrowing and joining of the options on Wednesday, they feel will get the numbers. Fair play to their patience.

I think Soubry wants to join the second ref and Customs Union amendments together?

My prediction is the gap would widen in that case!

ThePanjandrum

LeinsterDub wrote: »

His mandate is to represent his consistency and the people of it. No more no less.

The manifesto is the promise of how they they will proceed as an MP. It is their source of legitimacy. Personally I think that MPs should act as delegates anyway if there constituents choose to give them a mandate or wish them to vacate the seat.

MikeSoys

so GE or TMs deal or no deal... if the uk can decide .. it will go back to being a game of poker with the EU... i cant see anyone allowing a no deal as it will b on their watch.. jesus the history channel will be running their BREXIT-Seconds From Disaster for years after all this....

Kermit.de.frog

Even if the UK leaves with no deal within months they will need a trade deal with the EU.

As mentioned in such a scenario the backstop and other EU demands will probably still be there waiting for them at the table anyway.

Headshot

TM has a 5 hrs meeting tomorrow with cabinet.

God knows it will be a waste of time because she'll refuse to compromise

sandbelter

MikeSoys wrote: »

i hope Merkel does not try and force ireland to pay for a british / eu mess

This is looking more and more like Weimar 2.0, I think the German's may have more historical perspective and have gut feel the worst may actually be ahead of us.

Professor Moriarty

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Several cases. When Carswell and Reckless joined UKIP they triggered a by-election, Dick Taverner did in Lincoln when he became and Independent. Those are three that immediately come to mind but there have been others.

Two UKIP MPs in 2014 and a Labour MP in 1972. Who are the others?

BorneTobyWilde

Forget the deals, they should vote on No deal v Revoke Article 50
Let those options face off

FrancieBrady

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Even if the UK leaves with no deal within months they will need a trade deal with the EU.

As mentioned in such a scenario the backstop and other EU demands will probably still be there waiting for them at the table anyway.

I suspect that is Dublin's secret border strategy. Either they accept TM's Deal or they go with No Deal and then have to come back shortly after with the EU in a stronger position.
In the meantime lax/no infrastructure controls on the border.

MikeSoys

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Forget the deals, they should vote on No deal v Revoke Article 50
Let those options face off

they cant revoke ..as thats against the vote of the people i thought...