Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

LeinsterDub

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

The manifesto is the promise of how they they will proceed as an MP. It is their source of legitimacy. Personally I think that MPs should act as delegates anyway if there constituents choose to give them a mandate or wish them to vacate the seat.

By this logic all coalition governments are illegitimate or as soon as a manifesto promise is missed or failed to be achieved the government is illegitimate. Nonsense

LeinsterDub

MikeSoys wrote: »

they cant revoke ..as thats against the vote of the people i thought...

Parliament can do what they want. There is nothing preventing them revoking.

CelticRambler

looksee wrote: »

Sheesh, where can I watch this live

I've been getting my dose of HoC drama & intrigue via "Sky News Live" on YouTube (official Sky Channel)


I've also been doing a few honest days' work recently, so speed reading through this thread only once or twice a day. Two discussable points stand out for me - one by it's presence, the other by its absence.

The first (probably only of academic interest now) is the assertion that UK taking part in the EP elections would result in a "British Toxicity" contaminating the EU chamber. It seems that even amongst the politically tuned-in contributors to this thread, several don't seem to realise that MEPs do not huddle together in national groupings in Strasbourg, but associate with their own kind regardless of patriotism. UK politicians will gravitate to left-ish, right-ish or centrist parties and are as likely to argue against another Brit as they are to argue against a French, Italian or Polish MEP.

Now while theoretically that could see a whole bunch of right-wingers from across Europe form a significant and troublesome majority, the very nature of their antipathy towards just about everyone else means that it doesn't happen in practice. In the same way that the ERG can't even keep itself together in the UK, moderate Europhobes like Nigel Farage :rolleyes: wouldn't touch Marine Le Pen's Front National. She's since attracted a few headbangers from elsewhere (including the new-improved-nastier-than-Nigel-UKIP) so I don't think there's any real risk of a disgruntled not-Brexiting UK injecting any more toxicity into the EP than France's gilets jaunes.

marno21

Sky News showing an interview after 9 with Andrew Bridgen firstly as "Conservative" but all subsequent were labelled "Conservative - European Research Group"

Steve Baker is on at present simply being shown as "Deputy Chair - European Research Group"

Good to see proper accurate labelling of these guys.

Zubeneschamali

Water John wrote: »

Kyle and Soubry seemed quite optimistic. A further narrowing and joining of the options on Wednesday, they feel will get the numbers.

We do have to remember that the Westminster Parliament system is very old.
And crap.

Maybe, just maybe, after they drag the UKs reputation all the way down into the sewer, below North Korea's, they will finally decide on something halfway sensible they could have settled on 2 years ago and saved themselves a bazillion half crowns.

Personally, I think No Deal is getting more and more likely. The 21st century has not seen a western democracy shoot itself in the guts on live TV out of simple stupidity, so at least we can say we witnessed some history happening, even if it ends up in the Big Book Of Fúcking Stupid History with President Donald Trump

CelticRambler

The point I thought had escaped attention was an announcement by Eurotunnel that they are fully Brexit ready. I'm not sure that they can be entirely sure about that, but (a) they're only referring to the French side of the operation (i.e. arrivals from the UK into France); and (b) the Guardian article linked above gives a brief but chilling description of what an EU-UK "smart" border looks like (my bold):

In the event of a no-deal Brexit a newly built border inspection post awaits for all racehorses and bloodstock to be physically checked in at Calais. Stables for queues of up to 20 horses are expected to be completed in the coming days.

100% documentary checks on animals and physical checks for 20% of beef, pork and lamb, and 50% of poultry.

As well as the new infrastructure, Eurotunnel also unveiled “green and orange” routes for entry into France and the EU.

Those requiring checks will be directed on the orange route towards a border control zone involving customs, sanitary and phytosanitary checks featuring nine bays, where a truck can be fully unloaded in secure and temperature-controlled warehousing.

“We have space for 100 trucks to be parked, 50% of our hourly traffic, and that’s way more than the authorities say they need,” said Keefe. “We’ve spent €15m on new buildings, warehousing, e-gates for passport checks, cameras, scanners, roads and signage.”

Remember, folks, this "650-hectare (1,606-acre) commercial fortress" controls one, read that again: one, border crossing point. Now find your nearest backstop rejecter and ask how they plan to make that work in Ireland!

(I'm going up to have a look at it on Thursday night ... :cool: )

devnull

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1112831558682066947

https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1112832718251978752

I've never felt No Deal was likely but there does now seem to be a direction of travel towards it within the Tories which is worrying.

No Deal I think would cause seismic fissures within the UK, but it might serve to hold the Tories together, as well as the on-off relationship with the DUP.

Indeed and the thing is that the TIGS and the Lib Dems will to be blame.

They recklessly continue chasing their losses like a gambling addict on their bid to revoke Article 50 which will never get enough support across the house whilst continuing to abstain on a customs union that could have passed.

It's not a perfect option but by continuing to chase the unachievable, they are gambling the livelihoods and future of every man, woman and child in their country and if it backfires and the UK ends up with no deal the lot of them are finished as politicians and people will NEVER forgive them.

If I was a Brit, I'd far rather have the safety and security of a customs union style Brexit, then a 50/50 risk of no deal. I wouldn't give up on a referendum if I was them, but I'd have a fall back of a customs union plan rather than the fall back of No Deal.

They should vote for the safety net of a customs union and then look to push other options. Theresa May may well reject a Customs Union even if they voted for it, but it would eliminate any argument for no deal, and that should be the first focus, and once No Deal is ruled out, to push for other options than customs union.

They should NEVER take a gamble that could result in No Deal.

MikeSoys

Who shot J.R.?..."Dream Season,” -entirety of season 9 was revealed to have been a dream ...

i wonder if anyone in HoC is hoping brexit is same.

RobertKK

The indicative votes are non binding.

Theresa May has shown the Conservative party comes first in all circumstances, she isn't likely to accept an indicative vote. She wants to go down in history as the person who took the UK out of the EU. Look at her premiership...without this 'achievement' she would leave the job with absolutely nothing. She has the opposite of the Midas touch, as Michael Roth the German minister said, its a ****show...

I don't think a long extension would be good, I think we need this ended now in some form, and when I say ended, just this part of Brexit...
This is just the first bit, we have potentially years of this.

Imreoir2

LeinsterDub wrote: »

By this logic all coalition governments are illegitimate or as soon as a manifesto promise is missed or failed to be achieved the government is illegitimate. Nonsense

By this logic, the whole conservative party should resign their seat and face the electorate now as they have all failed to deliver their manifesto commitment on Brexit to deliver a withdrawl agreement within the two years allowed under A50.

Zubeneschamali

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Even if the UK leaves with no deal within months they will need a trade deal with the EU.

Days, not months.


The only reason it is days and not minutes is that the EU already announced they will go easy on them, allowing flights and adequate food.

Anteayer

CelticRambler wrote: »

I've been getting my dose of HoC drama & intrigue via "Sky News Live" on YouTube (official Sky Channel)


I've also been doing a few honest days' work recently, so speed reading through this thread only once or twice a day. Two discussable points stand out for me - one by it's presence, the other by its absence.

The first (probably only of academic interest now) is the assertion that UK taking part in the EP elections would result in a "British Toxicity" contaminating the EU chamber. It seems that even amongst the politically tuned-in contributors to this thread, several don't seem to realise that MEPs do not huddle together in national groupings in Strasbourg, but associate with their own kind regardless of patriotism. UK politicians will gravitate to left-ish, right-ish or centrist parties and are as likely to argue against another Brit as they are to argue against a French, Italian or Polish MEP.

Now while theoretically that could see a whole bunch of right-wingers from across Europe form a significant and troublesome majority, the very nature of their antipathy towards just about everyone else means that it doesn't happen in practice. In the same way that the ERG can't even keep itself together in the UK, moderate Europhobes like Nigel Farage :rolleyes: wouldn't touch Marine Le Pen's Front National. She's since attracted a few headbangers from elsewhere (including the new-improved-nastier-than-Nigel-UKIP) so I don't think there's any real risk of a disgruntled not-Brexiting UK injecting any more toxicity into the EP than France's gilets jaunes.

The issue with that is that the EP assumes the UK will return a massive number of Eurosceptic MEPs and actually the UK right wingers do tend to be a group to themselves in Brussels, particularly UKIP.

I mean all most of those guys do is filibuster and troll. It’s not like they’ll be doing anything remotely constructive if they’re elected, particularly if there’s a dragged out Brexit and they’re only there as a stop gap.

listermint

What I don't understand is why there isn't a serious investigation into the ERG and it's members. These are a party inside a party populated by fanatical individuals all of whom run shoulders in heavily suspicious circles.

Many of whom have second and third jobs outside of their governmental roles. They hold questionable investment and have he ear of donors who have various off shore tax haven routes.

These people are skeptical of the EU and not for the reasons we think they are. They are skeptical on behalf of their donors and themselves primarily for financial gain and that is a sole driver. The rest is fluff.

Why are we not looking properly into their background their conflicts with their governmental role and how all of this has nothing to do with their constituents wants and needs.

ShooterSF

I thought today was day 2 of a "Two day process" laid out before last weeks votes which is why people were talking down the fact that all 8 votes were noes. Today would resolve it!

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Forget the deals, they should vote on No deal v Revoke Article 50
Let those options face off

But they already voted today that if they were heading over the cliff and no extension was available they wouldn't revoke. Then again they also massively rejected no deal last week. All I can think of is that episode of the simpsons where they try and get the kids to fix Itchy and Scratchy but reverse the voting from yes to no :rolleyes:

woohoo!!!

No deal looming large. Varadkar is going to have to rollout those border and check plans and pronto. I don't see how the EU can grant any further extension at this stage.

Imreoir2

ShooterSF wrote: »

I thought today was day 2 of a "Two day process" laid out before last weeks votes which is why people were talking down the fact that all 8 votes were noes. Today would resolve it!



But they already voted today that if they were heading over the cliff and no extension was available they wouldn't revoke. Then again they also massively rejected no deal last week. All I can think of is that episode of the simpsons where they try and get the kids to fix Itchy and Scratchy but reverse the voting from yes to no :rolleyes:

It's starting to remind me of the "I demand a recount" infinity loop.

ThePanjandrum

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Triggering A50 is not the same as voting for no-deal, this is clear as every time no-deal as an option has been put to the parliament, it has been rejected by a whopping majority.

People really need to stop pretending that a given vote means something significantly different simply because they would like it if it did.

The 17.4 million people voted to leave the EU, they did not vote to leave the customs union or single market, pretending they did is just silly. They were not asked about either of those things.

MP's voted to trigger A50, they did not vote for no-deal, pretending the did is again, silly. They have consistantly rejected that outcome by a greater margin than any other.

Please try to stick within the bounds of reality.

Triggering Article 50 meant that the MPs were accepting leaving with no deal was an option therefore they voted that unless they came up with some other agreed deal they would leave with no deal. They did it knowingly.



People were told before the Referendum that leaving the EU meant that the UK would leave the Customs Union and Single Market, David Cameron and Nick Clegg both said this. The leaflet that the Government distributed to all homes which supposedly factually explained the options in more detail than could be given on the ballot paper placed great stress on the UK losing access to the Single Market. As as I remember, no-one brought up the idea of leaving the EU but remaining in the Customs Union and Single Market before it was decided to leave. Prove me wrong.

Zubeneschamali

MikeSoys wrote: »

so they will ask for extension, call a GE and brexit will be back in 6 months?

No, I think they will ask for an extension for no reason with no plan, get told to go and sh!te, and crash out April 12th.

devnull

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

People were told before the Referendum that leaving the EU meant that the UK would leave the Customs Union and Single Market, David Cameron and Nick Clegg both said this. The leaflet that the Government distributed to all homes which supposedly factually explained the options in more detail than could be given on the ballot paper placed great stress on the UK losing access to the Single Market. As as I remember, no-one brought up the idea of leaving the EU but remaining in the Customs Union and Single Market before it was decided to leave. Prove me wrong.

The document written as a result of the Referendum Act 2015, Free Movement, Customs Union, in fact a whole range of options were marked as possible outcomes if the UK voted to no longer be a member of the European Union.

Being a member of the European Union is a black and white question. You either revoke Article 50 and you are a member or anything else is not a member. Trying to suggest otherwise is a deliberate misinterpretation of the referendum text and making a presumption and is anything but democratic.

Dont be at yourself

I imagine we'll see the EU side ramp up the narrative that we're headed for No Deal even moreso over the next couple of days. I also don't think it will be enough to shake the UK parliament to their senses, however.

Would love to know what the no-dealers' plan is for April 13th. How far up the agenda is negotiating a trade deal with their largest trading partner and closest neighbour, and how do they imagine that conversation going?

listermint

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

I imagine we'll see the EU side ramp up the narrative that we're headed for No Deal even moreso over the next couple of days. I also don't think it will be enough to shake the UK parliament to their senses, however.

Would love to know what the no-dealers' plan is for April 13th. How far up the agenda is negotiating a trade deal with their largest trading partner and closest neighbour, and how do they imagine that conversation going?

These people don't care. Large bets on a crash out. They'll leave government straight away with the cash and move to the south of France.

It's plain as day.

woohoo!!!

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

I imagine we'll see the EU side ramp up the narrative that we're headed for No Deal even moreso over the next couple of days. I also don't think it will be enough to shake the UK parliament to their senses, however.

Would love to know what the no-dealers' plan is for April 13th. How far up the agenda is negotiating a trade deal with their largest trading partner and closest neighbour, and how do they imagine that conversation going?

Waving flags, that's the extent of their planning. Oh and blame everyone else.

Zubeneschamali

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

I imagine we'll see the EU side ramp up the narrative that we're headed for No Deal even moreso over the next couple of days. I also don't think it will be enough to shake the UK parliament to their senses, however.

So you mean the EU side are going to tell the truth and the UK parliament are going to ignore them? Sounds plausible.

But this time they crash out on the 12th while still arguing with each other about the future relationship which is not even in play.

Imreoir2

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Triggering Article 50 meant that the MPs were accepting leaving with no deal was an option therefore they voted that unless they came up with some other agreed deal they would leave with no deal. They did it knowingly.

They also did it knowing that they could extend or revoke A50 instead of leaving with no-deal, and when asked they have consistantly given more support to those options than no-deal. As such it is as valid to say that in voting for A50 they voted to revoke A50 as it is to say that in voting for A50 they voted for no deal. In reality, they voted to start a process and reserved judgement as to what would happen at the end of that process, they did not make a definatve choice as to how the process would end and it is foolish to pretend otherwise.

People were told before the Referendum that leaving the EU meant that the UK would leave the Customs Union and Single Market, David Cameron and Nick Clegg both said this. The leaflet that the Government distributed to all homes which supposedly factually explained the options in more detail than could be given on the ballot paper placed great stress on the UK losing access to the Single Market. As as I remember, no-one brought up the idea of leaving the EU but remaining in the Customs Union and Single Market before it was decided to leave. Prove me wrong.

People were also told, by Brexiteers, that the UK would not have to leave the Single Market or Customs Union and that claims that they would were project fear. Either way it does not matter what they were told about the Single Market or Customs Union any more than the colour of the queens knickers, as neither were featured on the ballot paper.

Headshot

listermint wrote: »

These people don't care. Large bets on a crash out. They'll leave government straight away with the cash and move to the south of France.

It's plain as day.

When property prices collapse these vultures will buy property for pittance

RobertKK

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

I imagine we'll see the EU side ramp up the narrative that we're headed for No Deal even moreso over the next couple of days. I also don't think it will be enough to shake the UK parliament to their senses, however.

Would love to know what the no-dealers' plan is for April 13th. How far up the agenda is negotiating a trade deal with their largest trading partner and closest neighbour, and how do they imagine that conversation going?

April 13th would be the Tory party leadership battle, and the Tory party would look for someone who believes in Brexit, because apparently Theresa May doesn't really.
So Theresa May does a David Cameron so someone else can deal with the disaster the predecessor and the predecessor before that created.
We may think Theresa May is such a bad leader (she is) but it is quite possible the next leader will be worse.
The chance for things to get a lot worse is endless.

Zubeneschamali

RobertKK wrote: »

April 13th would be the Tory party leadership battle, and the Tory party would look for someone who believes in Brexit, because apparently Theresa May doesn't really.

If they bring about a no deal crashout, the Brexiteers will duck and cover. It'll be job done, collect the bets, park your behind on the safe seat backbenches forever.


It'll be up to the actual politicians to deal with the 10 year recession, hostility from every neighbour, recession, riots, police brutality on SKY, recession etc.


Boris and Rees-Mogg will, in the words of the most incisive British commentator on Brexit, have their trotters up. Twats.

Junkyard Tom

The EU needs to make a detailed plan that all 27 of us get behind and stick to in the event of a crash-out Brexit. The British will no doubt get back to trying to divide the EU. They are contemptible.

Gonna be a lot of road closures up on the border soon. I imagine big concrete bollards, they won't go the way of bombing them again, would they?

Zubeneschamali

Deleted User wrote: »

Gonna be a lot of road closures up on the border soon. I imagine big concrete bollards, they won't go the way of bombing them again, would they?

No, they'll just use a JCB to move them every evening.


If anyone plans a concrete bollard that can't be pushed aside, that's the person who needs to worry about bombs.