Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas

Strazdas wrote: »

Within 24-48 hours at a guess. No Deal would impact on so many different things instantly and simultaneously that it would be evident to everyone that something calamitous was underway - definitely the biggest upheaval in the UK since say September 1939.

I disagree. People will still have petrol, work will still be open, they'll have food etc. It would take a few months for it to start feeling really off, and by then, they'll be told it's the EU's actions since Brexit that is causing those issues.

Shelga

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Mark Francois is a horrible man. The use of the word coup here is inflammatory

https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1112832941502205953?s=20

He’s vile. Looks like he suffers from small man syndrome too, Nicky Morgan and the reporter tower over him.

Leavers have to look at the likes of him and really question what they have unleashed on their country. But they won’t.

BonnieSituation

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Mark Francois is a horrible man. The use of the word coup here is inflammatory

https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1112832941502205953?s=20

I have literally just cottoned on about his attitude is a classic case of "small man syndrome".

Spook_ie

Laois_Man wrote: »

He is only saying the same thing as Varadkar said on March 27th...



He is referring to the British, who, when they released their Tariff details, said they were going to treat N. Ireland differently in order to avoid a hard border!

He can refer to whom he likes, the EU will decide about what's required to protect its borders, else you can expect a border between Ireland and the EU where they can check the origins etc
of any goods

Headshot

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Mark Francois is a horrible man. The use of the word coup here is inflammatory

https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1112832941502205953?s=20

Yup a very nasty piece of work, worse than Farage and that's saying alot.

You could say is inflammatory remarks are driving an even deeper wedge into UK citizens but Mark doesnt care about this. He belongs more in UKIP than the Conservatives tbh

I love the way he says 17m people voted to leave, dear Mark not all those 17m people certainly didnt vote for a hard brexit and no amount of lying from you will change this.

BonnieSituation

Shelga wrote: »

He’s vile. Looks like he suffers from small man syndrome too, Nicky Morgan and the reporter tower over him.

Leavers have to look at the likes of him and really question what they have unleashed on their country. But they won’t.

Snap

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

I disagree. People will still have petrol, work will still be open, they'll have food etc. It would take a few months for it to start feeling really off, and by then, they'll be told it's the EU's actions since Brexit that is causing those issues.

No....the shock of the UK crashing out at a moment's notice and without warning would lead to panic buying in the shops and supermarkets followed by a glut of instant bad news stories on the TV news (major crash of the pound sterling, long queues and tailbacks at Dover and Calais, reports of businesses being absolutely spooked) and this would all be within 36 hours or so.

There is no way on earth things would be nice and calm for months.

Spook_ie

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Here's Coveney's plan: do nothing while the port at Dover utterly collapses.


When the UK begs for food and medicine aid, tap your Backstop plan with your glasses.

But they'll surely just bring it all through NI ports after its transited the non existent EU border

Lackey

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

You must be much younger than I am.

I would put money down that any kind of physical border will result in a clusterfu&k, and a replay of past ‘troubles’

Enzokk

Spook_ie wrote: »

Someone blinking?



https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/no-plan-to-protect-single-market-under-no-deal-brexit-says-coveney-914795.html


Also if that's the case then why the insistence on the backstop?

The problem right now is that Brexiters will jump on any words from Ireland or plans we are making. If our plans for no-deal is revealed then we are the ones breaking the GFA, and yet if nothing happens then the backstop is not needed at all as no border will be erected by either side.

So how do you plan for a border when you are not planning for a border? In this case the pressure will come from France on the Calais to Dover crossing. If the UK insists on no-deal for an extended time you will see eventual planning to protect the single market but the conventional thinking is that the UK will be back for a deal long before this is needed.

However conventional thinking was that we would never be within 10 days of no-deal and yet here we are for the 2nd time in a matter of weeks. Also, on the first day the new PM goes to the EU to start discussions on a trade deal or arrangements to get trucks moving, whichever comes first, the first items on the agenda will be the Irish border backstop, citizens rights and the divorce payment. If the UK agrees to these they will get their time to negotiate a deal, if not the pressure will be slowly put on until they are encouraged to return to the negotiating table. Think flights all of a sudden stopping for UK airlines to the EU without warning, seeing that the current arrangement in case of no-deal is temporary and can be revoked at any moment.

If you think the EU will not do this, look at the recent example of Greece who thought they could get one past the EU during the euro crises. They had a deal on the table but walked away and had a referendum on the deal. When this was rejected and they went back to the EU to demand a better deal the papers were drawn up already that would have Greece leaving the eurozone and euro. The other option was a worse deal than the one they rejected and they had to take this back to the people and ask them to accept this, which they did.

So don't be under any illusion that the EU will play hardball with the UK if they leave the EU and come looking for a deal. If the EU treated one of their members harshly, what do you think they will do with a third country causing harm to their members? If the UK thought the EU were bullies, wait until they aren't part of the club where their interests aren't at the heart of what the EU wants. That is not personal, just business.

20silkcut

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the Single Market - Daniel Hannan

Is he not the fella who said Fianna Fáil won every election until the Lisbon treaty and Michael Collins and Phil Collins were related.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

We will have to police the border on a no deal, but the police don’t have to stop every car and truck. Tariffs can be paid online. However borders do need occasional checkpoints.

We have 208 border crossings (source: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/ireland-has-208-border-crossings-officials-from-north-and-south-agree-1.3474246)

Now, obviously some (a lot) will have to be closed. Can you imagine the manpower needed to check 208 crossings? In the old days bridges were bombed and roads blocked off.

I don't think they'll blow up bridges, but then again, it is the DUP, so logic and reason are out the window.

If they're out on the 12th, this will have to happen by then, (or very soon after) and it will be a pretty big operation by any standards.

It has to happen in the event of a no deal. We (ROI) have to protect our interests from the British (Substandard meat, chlorinated chicken etc will be arriving shortly.)

The DUP will be delighted. One more way they're separate from us.

Zubeneschamali

Deleted User wrote: »

I disagree. People will still have petrol, work will still be open, they'll have food etc. It would take a few months for it to start feeling really off, and by then, they'll be told it's the EU's actions since Brexit that is causing those issues.

No - they have talked about stockpiling things but:

1) the ferry-company-with-no-ferries-and-a-port-that-can't-handle-ferries-anyway incident should tell you what their no-deal planning is like - they are bluffing. They do not have the vaguest, remotest notion of an ability to leave in months, and we are talking days, not months.

2) fresh food and medicines simply cannot be stockpiled.


3) the UK governments own projections say Dover won't last a day.

Add in panic whenever No Deal Brexit happens, and you'll have supply chain disruption added to panic buying - shelves in supermarkets will be empty. Hungry people will, initially, queue up outside empty shops, this is England after all.

But then some tattooed lads in the queue will say Oy, leave it out, we left already, innit, whose fault is this then? and beat up Mrs. Rashid next door. And then the police will show up (and immigrant communities will wonder why they were too late) and start cracking heads, and next thing it'll be riots and mounted police riding down lads with John Bulldogs tattooed on their arses.

And I have to say that I will not feel sorry for any of them except Mrs. Rashid.

FrancieBrady

Deleted User wrote: »

We have 208 border crossings (source: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/ireland-has-208-border-crossings-officials-from-north-and-south-agree-1.3474246)

Now, obviously some (a lot) will have to be closed. Can you imagine the manpower needed to check 208 crossings? In the old days bridges were bombed and roads blocked off.

I don't think they'll blow up bridges, but then again, it is the DUP, so logic and reason are out the window.

If they're out on the 12th, this will have to happen by then, (or very soon after) and it will be a pretty big operation by any standards.

It has to happen in the event of a no deal. We (ROI) have to protect our interests from the British (Substandard meat, chlorinated chicken etc will be arriving shortly.)

The DUP will be delighted. One more way they're separate from us.

You should read Tony Connelly's very informative piece posted earlier. While the prospects are bleak, I don't think they are planning quite such drastic action immediately. Thankfully.

Kermit.de.frog

Taoiseach meeting seperately with both French and German leaders in a couple of days is not exactly normal (the German Chancellor getting on a plane to come here too).

I wonder is something up? Pressure to be put on the government?

Or reaffirmation for the Brexiters of solidarity?

Macron statement going to be studied very carefully tomorrow?.

Spook_ie

20silkcut wrote: »

Is he not the fella who said Fianna Fáil won every election until the Lisbon treaty and Michael Collins and Phil Collins were related.

To be fair I'm not sure too many in Ireland would notice the difference between FF and FG governments anyway.

Zubeneschamali

Spook_ie wrote: »

But they'll surely just bring it all through NI ports after its transited the non existent EU border

This is why the backstop is such a joke - NI ports can't even keep NI going, most NI-Britain traffic goes through Dublin. The idea they could keep the UK going in the other direction, instead of the Channel ports, is laughable.



Seriously, have you ever been to Stranraer? I drove to Edinburgh that way a couple of years ago, and it isn't a port. Not even like Galway which isn't a port. Stranraer is a bit of a pier in the middle of nowhere.

Enzokk

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Taoiseach meeting seperately with both French and German leaders in a couple of days is not exactly normal (the German Chancellor getting on a plane to come here too).

I wonder is something up? Pressure to be put on he government?

I think it is more likely that they will seek assurances if we will be okay if there is no-deal and to see what assistance we will need. The EU would have put pressure on us earlier if they were going to push us to concessions as negotiations are closed already. Remember they are just as aware of the optics if the EU would concede now to UK demands and what that would mean for future talks. I suspect hard truths if we don't know what will be coming, which I suspect our government will be fully aware of, but support from both will the the order of the day.

Mezcita

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Taoiseach meeting seperately with both French and German leaders in a couple of days is not exactly normal (the German Chancellor getting on a plane to come here too).

I wonder is something up? Pressure to be put on the government?

Or reaffirmation for the Brexiters of solidarity?

Macron statement going to be studied very carefully tomorrow?.

Or maybe... just maybe.... They have Ireland's back on this.

Swear to God. Brexit fans have been salivating for months at the thought of the EU throwing us under the bus. Won't happen. Can't happen.

Zubeneschamali

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I wonder is something up?

Yes, in case you hadn't heard, the UK are likely to crash out in 10 days or so, and this is a big deal.

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Taoiseach meeting seperately with both French and German leaders in a couple of days is not exactly normal (the German Chancellor getting on a plane to come here too).

I wonder is something up? Pressure to be put on the government?

Or reaffirmation for the Brexiters of solidarity?

Macron statement going to be studied very carefully tomorrow?.

I believe this is connected to No Deal (not me speculating, what I've actually read). It seems Merkel and Macron want to coordinate preparations with Varadkar for how No Deal will be handled and what the actual plans for the border are.

It's definitely nothing to do with the two of them putting pressure on him.

ThePanjandrum

Laois_Man wrote: »

With pleasure.....

Oh yes, I remember that video coming up

Zubeneschamali

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Oh yes, I remember that video coming up

"An error occurred. Please try later."


I think that is the official Labour Party policy on Brexit, isn't it?

AllForIt

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

There are no more snobbish than those who - with their generous public salaries, gold plated pensions and personal wealth - sold the working people of Britain a fantasy of a land of milk and honey outside the EU. Those who want to turn Britain into Singapore on Thames talk about history and country while coming from a long tradition of barely reserved hatred of the working class, their protections and their state supports.

The 'selling Brexit' part really kicked in after the ref was called. I believe the ref was called not because of the number of Brexiteers in the Tory party who were kicking up a fuss about it but because of the strength of feeling in the country about it in the first place.

UKIP wouldn't have existed in the first place if it didn't emerge organically from the UK populace. I really believe that.

So all this talk about being 'sold' something that wasn't true for me doesn't come into it. The decision was made before the ref was called, before any selling.

Everything you said about the tactics of the Brexiteers may be true but I still think the result would have been the same even if there was no campaigning.

Spook_ie

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

This is why the backstop is such a joke - NI ports can't even keep NI going, most NI-Britain traffic goes through Dublin. The idea they could keep the UK going in the other direction, instead of the Channel ports, is laughable.



Seriously, have you ever been to Stranraer? I drove to Edinburgh that way a couple of years ago, and it isn't a port. Not even like Galway which isn't a port. Stranraer is a bit of a pier in the middle of nowhere.

Yep but didn't they make a good effort in Dunkirk and the Normandy beaches and afaik this time they won't be under artillery fire.

Anyways they can go from 3 ports afaik
Belfast 24.6 million tonnes, Stranraer 210000 freight units per year and Warrenpoint 2.5 million tons and all say they handle container traffic and that's without any kind of Dunkirk spirit. I wouldn't be saying it's all over before the whistles even blown.

Zubeneschamali

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No - they have talked about stockpiling things but:

1) the ferry-company-with-no-ferries-and-a-port-that-can't-handle-ferries-anyway incident should tell you what their no-deal planning is like - they are bluffing. They do not have the vaguest, remotest notion of an ability to leave in months, and we are talking days, not months.

2) fresh food and medicines simply cannot be stockpiled.


3) the UK governments own projections say Dover won't last a day.

Add in panic whenever No Deal Brexit happens, and you'll have supply chain disruption added to panic buying - shelves in supermarkets will be empty. Hungry people will, initially, queue up outside empty shops, this is England after all.

But then some tattooed lads in the queue will say Oy, leave it out, we left already, innit, whose fault is this then? and beat up Mrs. Rashid next door. And then the police will show up (and immigrant communities will wonder why they were too late) and start cracking heads, and next thing it'll be riots and mounted police riding down lads with John Bulldogs tattooed on their arses.

And I have to say that I will not feel sorry for any of them except Mrs. Rashid.

I don't really disagree. Just feel that social unrest wouldn't happen for a while, and there won't be a collective "oh shlt" in the first couple of days.

If this No Deal thing happens, it is going to be the most significant televisual event since Quantum Leap.

Junkyard Tom

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

You must be much younger than I am.

I'm a child of the troubles era and grew up in the north. I remember the checkpoints well. Everything has changed, there can be no going back.

gormdubhgorm

I found this you tube channel good for explaining all the goings on/non-movement of Brexit - and the possible future moves.

Here is the latest one:

Zubeneschamali

AllForIt wrote: »

UKIP wouldn't have existed in the first place if it didn't emerge organically from the UK populace.

UKIP basically didn't exist. Farage couldn't even get a seat in Westminster - they were irrelevant noisemakers.


Until Cameron handed them the keys of the Tory party and fecked off to Nice to put his trotters up.


Twat.

Jim2007

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Taoiseach meeting seperately with both French and German leaders in a couple of days is not exactly normal (the German Chancellor getting on a plane to come here too).

I wonder is something up? Pressure to be put on the government?

Or reaffirmation for the Brexiters of solidarity?

Macron statement going to be studied very carefully tomorrow?.

How could anything possibly be normal about this situation for heaven’s sake!

Clearly you know SFA about the situation! France and Germany are not in a position to put pressure on Ireland because there is nothing any of them can do about it. Either the UK agrees to a custom union type of arrangement in accordance with WTO rules or a hard border goes up so that we can continue to meet our trade agreements commitments. The ball is in the UK’s court and all anyone can do is wait.