Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Russman

So, given no deal is looking increasingly likely at this point, realistically speaking, and leaving aside bravado, how soon before it really starts to bite over there ?
Like, how long before large numbers of people really feel the impact and realise the gravity of the whole thing ?
Because reading some of the Brexiteer responses on Twitter you’d almost be forgiven for wondering who has the wrong end of the stick.

Junkyard Tom

Deleted User wrote: »

Gonna be a lot of road closures up on the border soon. I imagine big concrete bollards, they won't go the way of bombing them again, would they?

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, they'll just use a JCB to move them every evening.


If anyone plans a concrete bollard that can't be pushed aside, that's the person who needs to worry about bombs.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves lads, it's highly unlikely to get that bad.

Spook_ie

Someone blinking?

Tánaiste, Simon Coveney, has said there is no plan in place to protect the integrity of the EU single market in a no-deal Brexit scenario.



But Mr Coveney said it was not too late to create a plan that would protect the single market and the peace process on the island of Ireland in the absence of a backstop.

He made the comments as efforts intensify to find a way through the Brexit impasse with the April 12 deadline looming.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/no-plan-to-protect-single-market-under-no-deal-brexit-says-coveney-914795.html


Also if that's the case then why the insistence on the backstop?

ThePanjandrum

Imreoir2 wrote: »

People were also told, by Brexiteers, that the UK would not have to leave the Single Market or Customs Union and that claims that they would were project fear. Either way it does not matter what they were told about the Single Market or Customs Union any more than the colour of the queens knickers, as neither were featured on the ballot paper.

Quotes?

d. The authorities must provide objective information. This implies that the text submitted to a referendum and an explanatory report or balanced campaign material from the proposal’s supporters and opponents should be made available to electors sufficiently in advance, as follows:
i. they must be published in the official gazette sufficiently far in advance of the vote;
ii. they must be sent directly to citizens and be received sufficiently far in advance of the vote;
iii. the explanatory report must give a balanced presentation not only of the viewpoint of the executive and legislative authorities or persons sharing their viewpoint but also of the opposing one.

Code of Good Practice on Referendums - EU

Franz Von Peppercorn

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

So you mean the EU side are going to tell the truth and the UK parliament are going to ignore them? Sounds plausible.

But this time they crash out on the 12th while still arguing with each other about the future relationship which is not even in play.

They may not even notice. On April the 13th there will be another round of indicative votes. Order!

Laois_Man

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

People were told before the Referendum that leaving the EU meant that the UK would leave the Customs Union and Single Market, David Cameron and Nick Clegg both said this. The leaflet that the Government distributed to all homes which supposedly factually explained the options in more detail than could be given on the ballot paper placed great stress on the UK losing access to the Single Market. As as I remember, no-one brought up the idea of leaving the EU but remaining in the Customs Union and Single Market before it was decided to leave. Prove me wrong.

With pleasure.....

Franz Von Peppercorn

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Gonna be a lot of road closures up on the border soon. I imagine big concrete bollards, they won't go the way of bombing them again, would they?

We will have to police the border on a no deal, but the police don’t have to stop every car and truck. Tariffs can be paid online. However borders do need occasional checkpoints.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Laois_Man wrote: »

With pleasure.....

I think the opposite is true too, though, the anti brexiters said that there wouldn’t be the option of a CU or SM.

ThePanjandrum

Imreoir2 wrote: »

They also did it knowing that they could extend or revoke A50 instead of leaving with no-deal

No, they didn't. Those questions did not come to the courts until later.

Imreoir2

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Quotes?

Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the Single Market - Daniel Hannan

CelticRambler

rubbledoubledo wrote: »

The EU have to make a stand at this stage.

The EU made a stand back in 2016; they haven't shifted in the meantime. Since the start of the year, the only adjustments they've made to their original position have been to protect EU interests and manoeuvre the UK into corners that make it easier to set the T&Cs for future negotiations.

Anteayer wrote: »

The issue with that is that the EP assumes the UK will return a massive number of Eurosceptic MEPs and actually the UK right wingers do tend to be a group to themselves in Brussels, particularly UKIP.

I mean all most of those guys do is filibuster and troll. It’s not like they’ll be doing anything remotely constructive if they’re elected, particularly if there’s a dragged out Brexit and they’re only there as a stop gap.

They can get away with a small amout of trolling, but the EP is set up in a way that encourages healthy contributions and kills off filibustering. If you watch the televised debates carefully, you'll occasionally catch sight of the clock counting down the seconds left for whoever's speaking at the time. And seeing/hearing Nigel Farage being reminded by an Irish accent* that he's not in the HoC and needs to behave like a grown-up is a lovely thing!

(*EP Vice President, Mairead McGuinness)

ThePanjandrum

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

No, they didn't. Those questions did not come to the courts until later.

I drive to work every day knowing I'll get there, or die. Just because I accept that I may does not mean it was my intention or I'm ok with dying.

No Deal has had significant majorities against it recently, the only thing to get a majority really. Your arguing that MPs want a No Deal is just odd.

Water John

Water John wrote: »

Kyle and Soubry seemed quite optimistic. A further narrowing and joining of the options on Wednesday, they feel will get the numbers. Fair play to their patience.

Ian Dunt not so happy. Taking a bit of a swipe at the soft Brexiters and the 2nd refers.

https://twitter.com/iandunt/status/1112844097033732098?s=21

Laois_Man

Spook_ie wrote: »

Someone blinking?



https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/no-plan-to-protect-single-market-under-no-deal-brexit-says-coveney-914795.html


Also if that's the case then why the insistence on the backstop?

He is only saying the same thing as Varadkar said on March 27th...

"Let there be no doubt in this house or in Westminster that when I talk about special arrangements I mean treating Northern Ireland differently from the rest of the United Kingdom and it is the UK's proposal to do exactly that," Mr Varadkar said.

He is referring to the British, who, when they released their Tariff details, said they were going to treat N. Ireland differently in order to avoid a hard border!

Imreoir2

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

No, they didn't. Those questions did not come to the courts until later.

Do you live in an alternate reality where nobody knew before it was confirmed by the courts that A50 could be revoked dispite this being the clear understanding of all parties before, during and after it was triggered?

Please tell me what the point of this obfustication is supposed to be? MP's voted for no-deal despite never having voted for no-deal, 17.4 million people voted to leave the single market dispite never having been asked that question. You seem intent on nothing more than winding people up.

Zubeneschamali

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Sometimes co-operation is mutually beneficial

The whole EU is beneficial to both sides and the UK voting public Noped that, so don't be surprised if the EU nopes a few things you think they shouldn't in a purely rational world of theoretical economics.

Zubeneschamali

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Let's not get ahead of ourselves lads, it's highly unlikely to get that bad.

You must be much younger than I am.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Mark Francois is a horrible man. The use of the word coup here is inflammatory

https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1112832941502205953?s=20

Zubeneschamali

Spook_ie wrote: »

Also if that's the case then why the insistence on the backstop?

Here's Coveney's plan: do nothing while the port at Dover utterly collapses.


When the UK begs for food and medicine aid, tap your Backstop plan with your glasses.

Strazdas

Russman wrote: »

So, given no deal is looking increasingly likely at this point, realistically speaking, and leaving aside bravado, how soon before it really starts to bite over there ?
Like, how long before large numbers of people really feel the impact and realise the gravity of the whole thing ?
Because reading some of the Brexiteer responses on Twitter you’d almost be forgiven for wondering who has the wrong end of the stick.

Within 24-48 hours at a guess. No Deal would impact on so many different things instantly and simultaneously that it would be evident to everyone that something calamitous was underway - definitely the biggest upheaval in the UK since say September 1939.

Strazdas

Strazdas wrote: »

Within 24-48 hours at a guess. No Deal would impact on so many different things instantly and simultaneously that it would be evident to everyone that something calamitous was underway - definitely the biggest upheaval in the UK since say September 1939.

I disagree. People will still have petrol, work will still be open, they'll have food etc. It would take a few months for it to start feeling really off, and by then, they'll be told it's the EU's actions since Brexit that is causing those issues.

Shelga

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Mark Francois is a horrible man. The use of the word coup here is inflammatory

https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1112832941502205953?s=20

He’s vile. Looks like he suffers from small man syndrome too, Nicky Morgan and the reporter tower over him.

Leavers have to look at the likes of him and really question what they have unleashed on their country. But they won’t.

BonnieSituation

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Mark Francois is a horrible man. The use of the word coup here is inflammatory

https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1112832941502205953?s=20

I have literally just cottoned on about his attitude is a classic case of "small man syndrome".

Spook_ie

Laois_Man wrote: »

He is only saying the same thing as Varadkar said on March 27th...



He is referring to the British, who, when they released their Tariff details, said they were going to treat N. Ireland differently in order to avoid a hard border!

He can refer to whom he likes, the EU will decide about what's required to protect its borders, else you can expect a border between Ireland and the EU where they can check the origins etc
of any goods

Headshot

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Mark Francois is a horrible man. The use of the word coup here is inflammatory

https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1112832941502205953?s=20

Yup a very nasty piece of work, worse than Farage and that's saying alot.

You could say is inflammatory remarks are driving an even deeper wedge into UK citizens but Mark doesnt care about this. He belongs more in UKIP than the Conservatives tbh

I love the way he says 17m people voted to leave, dear Mark not all those 17m people certainly didnt vote for a hard brexit and no amount of lying from you will change this.

BonnieSituation

Shelga wrote: »

He’s vile. Looks like he suffers from small man syndrome too, Nicky Morgan and the reporter tower over him.

Leavers have to look at the likes of him and really question what they have unleashed on their country. But they won’t.

Snap

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

I disagree. People will still have petrol, work will still be open, they'll have food etc. It would take a few months for it to start feeling really off, and by then, they'll be told it's the EU's actions since Brexit that is causing those issues.

No....the shock of the UK crashing out at a moment's notice and without warning would lead to panic buying in the shops and supermarkets followed by a glut of instant bad news stories on the TV news (major crash of the pound sterling, long queues and tailbacks at Dover and Calais, reports of businesses being absolutely spooked) and this would all be within 36 hours or so.

There is no way on earth things would be nice and calm for months.

Spook_ie

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Here's Coveney's plan: do nothing while the port at Dover utterly collapses.


When the UK begs for food and medicine aid, tap your Backstop plan with your glasses.

But they'll surely just bring it all through NI ports after its transited the non existent EU border

Lackey

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

You must be much younger than I am.

I would put money down that any kind of physical border will result in a clusterfu&k, and a replay of past ‘troubles’

Enzokk

Spook_ie wrote: »

Someone blinking?



https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/no-plan-to-protect-single-market-under-no-deal-brexit-says-coveney-914795.html


Also if that's the case then why the insistence on the backstop?

The problem right now is that Brexiters will jump on any words from Ireland or plans we are making. If our plans for no-deal is revealed then we are the ones breaking the GFA, and yet if nothing happens then the backstop is not needed at all as no border will be erected by either side.

So how do you plan for a border when you are not planning for a border? In this case the pressure will come from France on the Calais to Dover crossing. If the UK insists on no-deal for an extended time you will see eventual planning to protect the single market but the conventional thinking is that the UK will be back for a deal long before this is needed.

However conventional thinking was that we would never be within 10 days of no-deal and yet here we are for the 2nd time in a matter of weeks. Also, on the first day the new PM goes to the EU to start discussions on a trade deal or arrangements to get trucks moving, whichever comes first, the first items on the agenda will be the Irish border backstop, citizens rights and the divorce payment. If the UK agrees to these they will get their time to negotiate a deal, if not the pressure will be slowly put on until they are encouraged to return to the negotiating table. Think flights all of a sudden stopping for UK airlines to the EU without warning, seeing that the current arrangement in case of no-deal is temporary and can be revoked at any moment.

If you think the EU will not do this, look at the recent example of Greece who thought they could get one past the EU during the euro crises. They had a deal on the table but walked away and had a referendum on the deal. When this was rejected and they went back to the EU to demand a better deal the papers were drawn up already that would have Greece leaving the eurozone and euro. The other option was a worse deal than the one they rejected and they had to take this back to the people and ask them to accept this, which they did.

So don't be under any illusion that the EU will play hardball with the UK if they leave the EU and come looking for a deal. If the EU treated one of their members harshly, what do you think they will do with a third country causing harm to their members? If the UK thought the EU were bullies, wait until they aren't part of the club where their interests aren't at the heart of what the EU wants. That is not personal, just business.