Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

20silkcut

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the Single Market - Daniel Hannan

Is he not the fella who said Fianna Fáil won every election until the Lisbon treaty and Michael Collins and Phil Collins were related.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

We will have to police the border on a no deal, but the police don’t have to stop every car and truck. Tariffs can be paid online. However borders do need occasional checkpoints.

We have 208 border crossings (source: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/ireland-has-208-border-crossings-officials-from-north-and-south-agree-1.3474246)

Now, obviously some (a lot) will have to be closed. Can you imagine the manpower needed to check 208 crossings? In the old days bridges were bombed and roads blocked off.

I don't think they'll blow up bridges, but then again, it is the DUP, so logic and reason are out the window.

If they're out on the 12th, this will have to happen by then, (or very soon after) and it will be a pretty big operation by any standards.

It has to happen in the event of a no deal. We (ROI) have to protect our interests from the British (Substandard meat, chlorinated chicken etc will be arriving shortly.)

The DUP will be delighted. One more way they're separate from us.

Zubeneschamali

Deleted User wrote: »

I disagree. People will still have petrol, work will still be open, they'll have food etc. It would take a few months for it to start feeling really off, and by then, they'll be told it's the EU's actions since Brexit that is causing those issues.

No - they have talked about stockpiling things but:

1) the ferry-company-with-no-ferries-and-a-port-that-can't-handle-ferries-anyway incident should tell you what their no-deal planning is like - they are bluffing. They do not have the vaguest, remotest notion of an ability to leave in months, and we are talking days, not months.

2) fresh food and medicines simply cannot be stockpiled.


3) the UK governments own projections say Dover won't last a day.

Add in panic whenever No Deal Brexit happens, and you'll have supply chain disruption added to panic buying - shelves in supermarkets will be empty. Hungry people will, initially, queue up outside empty shops, this is England after all.

But then some tattooed lads in the queue will say Oy, leave it out, we left already, innit, whose fault is this then? and beat up Mrs. Rashid next door. And then the police will show up (and immigrant communities will wonder why they were too late) and start cracking heads, and next thing it'll be riots and mounted police riding down lads with John Bulldogs tattooed on their arses.

And I have to say that I will not feel sorry for any of them except Mrs. Rashid.

FrancieBrady

Deleted User wrote: »

We have 208 border crossings (source: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/ireland-has-208-border-crossings-officials-from-north-and-south-agree-1.3474246)

Now, obviously some (a lot) will have to be closed. Can you imagine the manpower needed to check 208 crossings? In the old days bridges were bombed and roads blocked off.

I don't think they'll blow up bridges, but then again, it is the DUP, so logic and reason are out the window.

If they're out on the 12th, this will have to happen by then, (or very soon after) and it will be a pretty big operation by any standards.

It has to happen in the event of a no deal. We (ROI) have to protect our interests from the British (Substandard meat, chlorinated chicken etc will be arriving shortly.)

The DUP will be delighted. One more way they're separate from us.

You should read Tony Connelly's very informative piece posted earlier. While the prospects are bleak, I don't think they are planning quite such drastic action immediately. Thankfully.

Kermit.de.frog

Taoiseach meeting seperately with both French and German leaders in a couple of days is not exactly normal (the German Chancellor getting on a plane to come here too).

I wonder is something up? Pressure to be put on the government?

Or reaffirmation for the Brexiters of solidarity?

Macron statement going to be studied very carefully tomorrow?.

Spook_ie

20silkcut wrote: »

Is he not the fella who said Fianna Fáil won every election until the Lisbon treaty and Michael Collins and Phil Collins were related.

To be fair I'm not sure too many in Ireland would notice the difference between FF and FG governments anyway.

Zubeneschamali

Spook_ie wrote: »

But they'll surely just bring it all through NI ports after its transited the non existent EU border

This is why the backstop is such a joke - NI ports can't even keep NI going, most NI-Britain traffic goes through Dublin. The idea they could keep the UK going in the other direction, instead of the Channel ports, is laughable.



Seriously, have you ever been to Stranraer? I drove to Edinburgh that way a couple of years ago, and it isn't a port. Not even like Galway which isn't a port. Stranraer is a bit of a pier in the middle of nowhere.

Enzokk

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Taoiseach meeting seperately with both French and German leaders in a couple of days is not exactly normal (the German Chancellor getting on a plane to come here too).

I wonder is something up? Pressure to be put on he government?

I think it is more likely that they will seek assurances if we will be okay if there is no-deal and to see what assistance we will need. The EU would have put pressure on us earlier if they were going to push us to concessions as negotiations are closed already. Remember they are just as aware of the optics if the EU would concede now to UK demands and what that would mean for future talks. I suspect hard truths if we don't know what will be coming, which I suspect our government will be fully aware of, but support from both will the the order of the day.

Mezcita

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Taoiseach meeting seperately with both French and German leaders in a couple of days is not exactly normal (the German Chancellor getting on a plane to come here too).

I wonder is something up? Pressure to be put on the government?

Or reaffirmation for the Brexiters of solidarity?

Macron statement going to be studied very carefully tomorrow?.

Or maybe... just maybe.... They have Ireland's back on this.

Swear to God. Brexit fans have been salivating for months at the thought of the EU throwing us under the bus. Won't happen. Can't happen.

Zubeneschamali

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I wonder is something up?

Yes, in case you hadn't heard, the UK are likely to crash out in 10 days or so, and this is a big deal.

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Taoiseach meeting seperately with both French and German leaders in a couple of days is not exactly normal (the German Chancellor getting on a plane to come here too).

I wonder is something up? Pressure to be put on the government?

Or reaffirmation for the Brexiters of solidarity?

Macron statement going to be studied very carefully tomorrow?.

I believe this is connected to No Deal (not me speculating, what I've actually read). It seems Merkel and Macron want to coordinate preparations with Varadkar for how No Deal will be handled and what the actual plans for the border are.

It's definitely nothing to do with the two of them putting pressure on him.

ThePanjandrum

Laois_Man wrote: »

With pleasure.....

Oh yes, I remember that video coming up

Zubeneschamali

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Oh yes, I remember that video coming up

"An error occurred. Please try later."


I think that is the official Labour Party policy on Brexit, isn't it?

AllForIt

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

There are no more snobbish than those who - with their generous public salaries, gold plated pensions and personal wealth - sold the working people of Britain a fantasy of a land of milk and honey outside the EU. Those who want to turn Britain into Singapore on Thames talk about history and country while coming from a long tradition of barely reserved hatred of the working class, their protections and their state supports.

The 'selling Brexit' part really kicked in after the ref was called. I believe the ref was called not because of the number of Brexiteers in the Tory party who were kicking up a fuss about it but because of the strength of feeling in the country about it in the first place.

UKIP wouldn't have existed in the first place if it didn't emerge organically from the UK populace. I really believe that.

So all this talk about being 'sold' something that wasn't true for me doesn't come into it. The decision was made before the ref was called, before any selling.

Everything you said about the tactics of the Brexiteers may be true but I still think the result would have been the same even if there was no campaigning.

Spook_ie

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

This is why the backstop is such a joke - NI ports can't even keep NI going, most NI-Britain traffic goes through Dublin. The idea they could keep the UK going in the other direction, instead of the Channel ports, is laughable.



Seriously, have you ever been to Stranraer? I drove to Edinburgh that way a couple of years ago, and it isn't a port. Not even like Galway which isn't a port. Stranraer is a bit of a pier in the middle of nowhere.

Yep but didn't they make a good effort in Dunkirk and the Normandy beaches and afaik this time they won't be under artillery fire.

Anyways they can go from 3 ports afaik
Belfast 24.6 million tonnes, Stranraer 210000 freight units per year and Warrenpoint 2.5 million tons and all say they handle container traffic and that's without any kind of Dunkirk spirit. I wouldn't be saying it's all over before the whistles even blown.

Zubeneschamali

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No - they have talked about stockpiling things but:

1) the ferry-company-with-no-ferries-and-a-port-that-can't-handle-ferries-anyway incident should tell you what their no-deal planning is like - they are bluffing. They do not have the vaguest, remotest notion of an ability to leave in months, and we are talking days, not months.

2) fresh food and medicines simply cannot be stockpiled.


3) the UK governments own projections say Dover won't last a day.

Add in panic whenever No Deal Brexit happens, and you'll have supply chain disruption added to panic buying - shelves in supermarkets will be empty. Hungry people will, initially, queue up outside empty shops, this is England after all.

But then some tattooed lads in the queue will say Oy, leave it out, we left already, innit, whose fault is this then? and beat up Mrs. Rashid next door. And then the police will show up (and immigrant communities will wonder why they were too late) and start cracking heads, and next thing it'll be riots and mounted police riding down lads with John Bulldogs tattooed on their arses.

And I have to say that I will not feel sorry for any of them except Mrs. Rashid.

I don't really disagree. Just feel that social unrest wouldn't happen for a while, and there won't be a collective "oh shlt" in the first couple of days.

If this No Deal thing happens, it is going to be the most significant televisual event since Quantum Leap.

Junkyard Tom

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

You must be much younger than I am.

I'm a child of the troubles era and grew up in the north. I remember the checkpoints well. Everything has changed, there can be no going back.

gormdubhgorm

I found this you tube channel good for explaining all the goings on/non-movement of Brexit - and the possible future moves.

Here is the latest one:

Zubeneschamali

AllForIt wrote: »

UKIP wouldn't have existed in the first place if it didn't emerge organically from the UK populace.

UKIP basically didn't exist. Farage couldn't even get a seat in Westminster - they were irrelevant noisemakers.


Until Cameron handed them the keys of the Tory party and fecked off to Nice to put his trotters up.


Twat.

Jim2007

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Taoiseach meeting seperately with both French and German leaders in a couple of days is not exactly normal (the German Chancellor getting on a plane to come here too).

I wonder is something up? Pressure to be put on the government?

Or reaffirmation for the Brexiters of solidarity?

Macron statement going to be studied very carefully tomorrow?.

How could anything possibly be normal about this situation for heaven’s sake!

Clearly you know SFA about the situation! France and Germany are not in a position to put pressure on Ireland because there is nothing any of them can do about it. Either the UK agrees to a custom union type of arrangement in accordance with WTO rules or a hard border goes up so that we can continue to meet our trade agreements commitments. The ball is in the UK’s court and all anyone can do is wait.

Enzokk

Some interesting tweets, firstly it is a breakdown of the votes this evening. We can see that there could have been support for all of the options other than parliamentary supremacy. If you think the Leavers has shot themselves in the foot the other side is not much better.

https://twitter.com/paul1kirby/status/1112840273116229642

And here is a reaction to Nick Boles resigning from a government source,

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1112839503180451841

That is a great way to talk about one more vote lost for a government that is relying on the DUP to get its votes through having lost another one of their members. It will only take a handful of defections that even with the DUP they will not have enough votes for a majority.

And it does seem that the confrontational politics has morphed from Labour and Tory to Remain and Leave. This is the reaction to their own party members,

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1112830057234530304

The damage Brexit is doing, other than economically, will be analysed in the years to come and the UK political class will not be looked on in any positive light. I feel it is inevitable that another tragedy will happen to a MP due to the words from the likes of Mark Francois.

Was it a requirement that indicative votes allow No votes? Struggling to really see why abstainees should effect a process aimed at finding out which option has most support. The UK needs to say what it wants, not what it doesn't want.

Rjd2

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

UKIP basically didn't exist. Farage couldn't even get a seat in Westminster - they were irrelevant noisemakers.


Until Cameron handed them the keys of the Tory party and fecked off to Nice to put his trotters up.


Twat.

They got 4 million votes in 2015 general election which was the 3rd best effort of all the parties. Nothing wrong with disliking their policies, but they were very relevant in the last few years of the Farage leadership.

Zubeneschamali

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

I'm a child of the troubles era. I remember the checkpoints well. Everything has changed, there can be no going back.

My grandfather was burnt out of his home in Belfast... in the 1920s. Of course it could happen again.

Jim2007

Strazdas wrote: »

No....the shock of the UK crashing out at a moment's notice and without warning would lead to panic buying in the shops and supermarkets followed by a glut of instant bad news stories on the TV news (major crash of the pound sterling, long queues and tailbacks at Dover and Calais, reports of businesses being absolutely spooked) and this would all be within 36 hours or so.

There is no way on earth things would be nice and calm for months.

No it will take months before it really starts to hit everyone.

The attitude to what you describe will be: so what? It does no bother me...

It is only when the stock piles have run down, tax revenue falls, order books have been fulfilled etc that the average Tom will start to feel it and that will take a few months.

Zubeneschamali

Rjd2 wrote: »

They got 4 million votes in 2015 general election which was the 3rd best effort of all the parties. Nothing wrong with disliking their policies, but they were very relevant in the last few years of the Farage leadership.

Eh, no. 4 million votes got them nothing at Westminster, that's how the UK system is loaded.


The LibDems were level with the tories in the polls of 2010 - doesn't matter. They are also nobodies now.

Junkyard Tom

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Of course it could happen again.

It's possible but highly improbable. Everything is different. Nationalists are as good as equal. The British will not want to kick the hornet's nest again.

If stepped-back random customs checks have to happen south of the six counties we'll live with it. The British can do them at British ports for stuff coming from Ireland.

Topgear on Dave

Jim2007 wrote: »

No it will take months before it really starts to hit everyone.

I think the effects would be felt surprisingly quickly with the interconnectedness of modern supply lines. My company here in Ireland very regularly brings in parts for machines from Europe, they are specialist and not supplied locally.

Long factory production lines (or parts of them) stop because one large machine has broken down for the want of a spare part.

Like "the battle being lost for the want of a horseshoe nail"

British (and Irish) industry operates with sophisticated integrated european supply lines.

AllForIt

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

UKIP basically didn't exist. Farage couldn't even get a seat in Westminster - they were irrelevant noisemakers.


Until Cameron handed them the keys of the Tory party and fecked off to Nice to put his trotters up.


Twat.

Cameron is unremitting in respect of calling the ref. I agree with him. He did the right thing. Because some don't want Brexit doesn't make his calling of the ref in any way 'wrong'.

Zubeneschamali

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

The British will not want to kick the hornet's nest again.

Yes, they are a model of sensible policy these days.