Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Leroy42

Peregrinus wrote: »

The problem is that if you lend your votes to create a majority for a Customs Union Brexit, the likely outcome is that you'll get a Customs Union Brexit, with no second referendum, and Freedom of Movement still ended. The notion that if, with 11 days to go, Parliament finally agrees to something, this opens up all kind of possibilities for other kinds of Brexit, is not a very plausible one. If Parliament agrees to a form of Brexit at this stage, that's got to be the odds-on favourite for the kind of Brexit the UK will get.

I don't think you can accuse the SNP of being obstructionist here. They voted in favour of three of the four options offered in indicative votes, and did not oppose the fourth. Whereas a signficant number of customs union supporters voted against/failed to support every other option offered.

It's the process that's at fault here - it penalises compomise- and consensus-seeking behaviour. But the process reflects a dominant political culture that similarly penalises such behaviour. The SNP are probably doing more than Some Parties I Could Mention, Jeremy, to resist that culture, and seek to change it.

I agree with your overall point, and I am not having a pop at the SNP, just using them as an example.

But at the present time, TM is pushing the line that it is her deal or no deal. That she doesn't have to listen to anyone else as they have no support either (as one can see by some claiming that the WA has received the highest Ayes of all the votes).

Just as many say that the Brexit side are split, clearly the remain (or more so the no No Deal side) are split as well.

I agree what they shouldn't vote for something if they don't agree to it, but do they have a plan to get to where they want? Simply no voting for it, but no offering up a plan of how to get what they want is no better than what TM is doing.

prawnsambo

robinph wrote: »

It's a massive difference in capacity though, even if the time is about the same. The bottlenecks at Dover and Holyhead are far easier to deal with on a few ferries doing multiple trips a day than the same ferries doing 1 and a half trips a day direct between Ireland and France.

Yes. But I'm just talking about the time sensitive stuff that needs to travel faster. The routes from Belgium and Holland have much greater capacity for Ro-Ro and Lo-Lo.

Leroy42

Enzokk wrote: »

So Barnier confirming in no-deal the price to start negotiations is to guarantee the backstop, pay the divorce bill and guarantee the rights of citizens. The only way to stop all this is to revoke article 50 and just try and pretend the last 3 years hasn't happened. The other options all look terrible for the UK.

And this is the crazy thing about the position of the likes of ERG etc. They claim that they have the £39bn as a card to play, that a no deal will mean the EU lose out and the backstop will be shelved.

But they are never asked, or at least no that I have seen, what happens when they try to get a FTA, won't the EU look for their money? Won't they look to sort out the border?

Water John

I think many of those voting, esp supporting one particular option did not support alt options. Each person was voting blind in not knowing which might pass the post first. Also there is a dynamic between the groups.
Voting for a CU would have just had it tacked into the PD and UK leaving on the 22nd May, for example.
Maybe Wed, if they do this process a third time, it will be down to a binary choice.

lawred2

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Regarding hard brexit (looking more and more likely now) our government has one card to play, which no one on this thread yet thought of.

They can call a referendum (we have one in May already right?) asking people to chose between a border in Northern Ireland or border on Irish Sea between us and EU.

Whatever the outcome then they can simply quote the "will of the people" when putting up the infrastructure.

that is not even close to an option for our government

gmisk

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Regarding hard brexit (looking more and more likely now) our government has one card to play, which no one on this thread yet thought of.

They can call a referendum (we have one in May already right?) asking people to chose between a border in Northern Ireland or border on Irish Sea between us and EU.

Whatever the outcome then they can simply quote the "will of the people" when putting up the infrastructure.

Er I am sure Northern Ireland/UK would be delighted with that.....they might want a say lol

I am sure the EU would be equally delighted with the other option....you cant just throw up random borders willy nilly as far as I know...

Besides this isnt irelands mess to try and fix it is up to the UK, if the DUP werent so pig ignorant they would accepted the backstop and Northern Ireland could have been a really good place to do business with a unique position within EU and UK...but nope they torched that.

Professor Moriarty

Water John wrote: »

I think many of those voting, esp supporting one particular option did not support alt options. Each person was voting blind in not knowing which might pass the post first. Also there is a dynamic between the groups.
Voting for a CU would have just had it tacked into the PD and UK leaving on the 22nd May, for example.
Maybe Wed, if they do this process a third time, it will be down to a binary choice.

I think it's time to hold MPs feet to the fire. Three options with a binding result: No Deal, the WA or a long extension.

MrMusician18

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Regarding hard brexit (looking more and more likely now) our government has one card to play, which no one on this thread yet thought of.

They can call a referendum (we have one in May already right?) asking people to chose between a border in Northern Ireland or border on Irish Sea between us and EU.

Whatever the outcome then they can simply quote the "will of the people" when putting up the infrastructure.

Yeah, that's not going to happen.

josip

The vast majority of freight traffic between Ireland and Europe will be between Dublin and Belgium/Netherlands closest to the major population centres.
Although Brittany-Rosslare is a shorter route by a considerable amount (c.17 hours vs c.40 hours) French dockers can be troublesome and you've still got to factor in the road time to get to Europe proper.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/post-brexit-shipping-routes-would-mean-spoiled-irish-food-1.3589873

There is no denying that for perishable goods, using the Dublin-Zeebrugge route will be measurably worse than the landbridge.

josip

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Regarding hard brexit (looking more and more likely now) our government has one card to play, which no one on this thread yet thought of.

They can call a referendum (we have one in May already right?) asking people to chose between a border in Northern Ireland or border on Irish Sea between us and EU.

Whatever the outcome then they can simply quote the "will of the people" when putting up the infrastructure.

Is that you David Cameron?

This is not a good idea and a bad use of national resources at a time when we will already be stretched.

Infini

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Regarding hard brexit (looking more and more likely now) our government has one card to play, which no one on this thread yet thought of.

They can call a referendum (we have one in May already right?) asking people to chose between a border in Northern Ireland or border on Irish Sea between us and EU.

Whatever the outcome then they can simply quote the "will of the people" when putting up the infrastructure.

It's not likely to happen. More likely is a Border Poll to just let the territory seccede back to the republic. I mean why pay for a border when you can just get rid of it.

Tell me how

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Regarding hard brexit (looking more and more likely now) our government has one card to play, which no one on this thread yet thought of.

They can call a referendum (we have one in May already right?) asking people to chose between a border in Northern Ireland or border on Irish Sea between us and EU.

Whatever the outcome then they can simply quote the "will of the people" when putting up the infrastructure.

No one has thought of that in the same way that no one has thought of broadcasting from Number 10 and announcing that it was all an exercise in showcasing political uncertainty and division and that given that the referendum was non-binding, the plan was never to actually leave.

Both ideas make as much sense.

Enzokk

The discussion about how people knew what they were voting for because the government warned them in the leaflet? I think that argument can be put to bed when this is a view from a Leaver,

https://twitter.com/richardgaisford/status/1112980165678809088

The perception that the UK was paying for Spain to have proper road infrastructure was not going to be sorted by a leaflet or a election campaign. This kind of misinformation will take years to get rid of and may be impossible if the actors who perpetuate the myth is allowed to continue with the misinformation campaign.

And it is ridiculous to suggest that the majority of people would have known what voting to Leave meant because it was warned in a leaflet that was derided as false.

gmisk

Enzokk wrote: »

The discussion about how people knew what they were voting for because the government warned them in the leaflet? I think that argument can be put to bed when this is a view from a Leaver,

https://twitter.com/richardgaisford/status/1112980165678809088

The perception that the UK was paying for Spain to have proper road infrastructure was not going to be sorted by a leaflet or a election campaign. This kind of misinformation will take years to get rid of and may be impossible if the actors who perpetuate the myth is allowed to continue with the misinformation campaign.

And it is ridiculous to suggest that the majority of people would have known what voting to Leave meant because it was warned in a leaflet that was derided as false.

Look people like that you just cant help.
Lets see how she will feel if she has to pay for the healthcare system in spain.

Charles Babbage

looksee wrote: »

Sheesh, where can I watch this live - neither BBC nor CNN will let me, and RTE just keeps asking me download flash player, which I have already done.

edit, ok scrap that, just seen the results. Thanks

Skynews on YouTube is ideal for these days.

Hurrache

UK politicians aren't even trying anymore.
https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1112999501277458432

Cryptopagan

Peregrinus wrote: »

It's the process that's at fault here - it penalises compomise- and consensus-seeking behaviour. But the process reflects a dominant political culture that similarly penalises such behaviour. The SNP are probably doing more than Some Parties I Could Mention, Jeremy, to resist that culture, and seek to change it.

Corbyn supported 3 of the 4 options, and abstained on revoking Article 50. For all the shortcomings its leadership has displayed throughout this Brexit debacle, Labour cannot still be accused of failing to seek a way forward that involves compromise and consensus. Tory and DUP intransigence, and May’s insistence that her deal is the only legitimate vision for Brexit, are very clearly the barriers to Parliament agreeing to a version of Leave.

blanch152

josip wrote: »

The vast majority of freight traffic between Ireland and Europe will be between Dublin and Belgium/Netherlands closest to the major population centres.
Although Brittany-Rosslare is a shorter route by a considerable amount (c.17 hours vs c.40 hours) French dockers can be troublesome and you've still got to factor in the road time to get to Europe proper.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/post-brexit-shipping-routes-would-mean-spoiled-irish-food-1.3589873

There is no denying that for perishable goods, using the Dublin-Zeebrugge route will be measurably worse than the landbridge.

I agree with all of that.

Supermarkets are already adjusting to the reality of a hard Brexit. The main effect on consumers will be price increases and shorter shelf-life, but the supermarkets will try and hide the effects, in the same way that biscuit and cereal packets get smaller etc. So your fruit will be packaged in smaller packages for the same price but with one day less shelf-life. You won't notice the price increase because it is the packet of grapes or bag of lettuce that is smaller, and you won't notice the shorter shelf-life because you will have eaten it quicker. You will shop more often and your total bill will go up, but that is harder to notice and even if it does affect you, you will buy less of some luxury good, or blame your growing kids.

prawnsambo

josip wrote: »

The vast majority of freight traffic between Ireland and Europe will be between Dublin and Belgium/Netherlands closest to the major population centres.
Although Brittany-Rosslare is a shorter route by a considerable amount (c.17 hours vs c.40 hours) French dockers can be troublesome and you've still got to factor in the road time to get to Europe proper.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/post-brexit-shipping-routes-would-mean-spoiled-irish-food-1.3589873

There is no denying that for perishable goods, using the Dublin-Zeebrugge route will be measurably worse than the landbridge.

It depends on where the goods are coming from. A lot of fruit and vegetables come from Spain; tomatoes and oranges for example. The quickest route is up the west coast of France and out via Roscoff. This is Ro-Ro traffic and there would be a time saving on the road trip vs heading to Calais. But the ferry from Santander would actually be quicker.

lawred2

Hurrache wrote: »

UK politicians aren't even trying anymore.
https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1112999501277458432

why wasn't that male MP named?

If he said what was alleged then come out and say who it was that said it. What's the secrecy about?

aidyhawse

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Regarding hard brexit (looking more and more likely now) our government has one card to play, which no one on this thread yet thought of.

They can call a referendum (we have one in May already right?) asking people to chose between a border in Northern Ireland or border on Irish Sea between us and EU.

Whatever the outcome then they can simply quote the "will of the people" when putting up the infrastructure.

No-one has thought of this before because that's exactly what the Brexiteer Politicians believed that they'd have been able to force Ireland into doing. On top of that, you are advocating for Ireland to either break the GFA, an international treaty, or to place a border between Ireland & the EU. Yeah, I can totally see why no-one has suggested that.

Hurrache

lawred2 wrote: »

why wasn't that male MP named?

If he said what was alleged then come out and say who it was that said it. What's the secrecy about?

A lot of people asking the same question of Krishnan. The good money is on Francois.

Professor Moriarty

Hurrache wrote: »

UK politicians aren't even trying anymore.
https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1112999501277458432

My money would be on Mark Francois. This is from an interview he gave yesterday: "My message to Jeremy Hunt is 'Up yours'". Great to see the Tories maintaining party unity.

Peregrinus

Cryptopagan wrote: »

Corbyn supported 3 of the 4 options, and abstained on revoking Article 50. For all the shortcomings its leadership has displayed throughout this Brexit debacle, Labour cannot still be accused of failing to seek a way forward that involves compromise and consensus. Tory and DUP intransigence, and May’s insistence that her deal is the only legitimate vision for Brexit, are very clearly the barriers to Parliament agreeing to a version of Leave.

Corbyn did, but each of the four options offered was opposed by a number of Labour MPs, and in every case that number would have been enough to carry the option if those MPs had supported it, or even just abstained. I agree that the Tories and the DUP carry the primary responsiblity for this mess, but any notion of Parliamen taking over control and making a decision absolutely depends on the Labour party committing to that, and following through.

I think there's a way forward here, which is for the Labour Party and the SNP to agree that they will both support both a Customs Union and Common Market 2.0, provided in each case that there is to be a confirmatory public vote. If party discipline can be maintained, that should deliver indicative support for two models of Brexit, which should be enough to persuade the EU that it is worth while granting an extension so that one of these models, or some compromise between them, can be firmed up and put to the people in a "this package or remain" referendum.

Provided, of course, HMG can be got to do the will of parliament and request a long extension on that basis. Which is a whole other issue.

On edit: That requires signficant compromise from both parties - SNP, becasue it opens the door to a Brexit in which Free Movement is lost, and Labour, because it opens a door to a refernedum in which Brexit is lost.

Imreoir2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Taoiseach meeting seperately with both French and German leaders in a couple of days is not exactly normal (the German Chancellor getting on a plane to come here too).

I wonder is something up? Pressure to be put on the government?

Or reaffirmation for the Brexiters of solidarity?

Macron statement going to be studied very carefully tomorrow?.

No-deal has moved from worst case scenario to most likely scenario, as Ireland is on the front line so to speak, this is hardly surprising. The idea that the EU are going to pressure the government over the backstop at this stage is laughable. One wonders if even a few years after Brexit and the backstop is in force people will still be suggesting that the EU is just about to throw Ireland under the bus.

Peregrinus

Imreoir2 wrote: »

No-deal has moved from worst case scenario to most likely scenario, as Ireland is on the front line so to speak, this is hardly surprising. The idea that the EU are going to pressure the government over the backstop at this stage is laughable. One wonders if even a few years after Brexit and the backstop is in force people will still be suggesting that the EU is just about to throw Ireland under the bus.

They are absolutely definitely not going to pressure the government over the backstop.

They are going to pressure the government over border controls. No-deal brexit and no backstop means border controls. They may be introduced gradually and stepped up over time, and there may be some forbearance and much sympathy and a good deal of supportive measures for Ireland, but the integrity of the Single Market must be assured. That's what Angela and Emmanuel are meeting Leo to discuss.

lawred2

Peregrinus wrote: »

Corbyn did, but each of the four options offered was opposed by a number of Labour MPs, and in every case that number would have been enough to carry the option if those MPs had supported it, or even just abstained. I agree that the Tories and the DUP carry the primary responsiblity for this mess, but any notion of Parliamen taking over control and making a decision absolutely depends on the Labour party committing to that, and following through.

I think there's a way forward here, which is for the Labour Party and the SNP to agree that they will both support both a Customs Union and Common Market 2.0, provided in each case that there is to be a confirmatory public vote. If party discipline can be maintained, that should deliver indicative support for two models of Brexit, which should be enough to persuade the EU that it is worth while granting an extension so that one of these models, or some compromise between them, can be firmed up and put to the people in a "this package or remain" referendum.

Provided, of course, HMG can be got to do the will of parliament and request a long extension on that basis. Which is a whole other issue.

On edit: That requires signficant compromise from both parties - SNP, becasue it opens the door to a Brexit in which Free Movement is lost, and Labour, because it opens a door to a refernedum in which Brexit is lost.

the public vote is a lottery where progress towards a softer Brexit could be entirely lost...

I don't get the clamour for it

Leroy42

And my reading of the situation in Ireland is that the majority A) understand the benefit of the EU to Ireland and understand what a complete shambles the UK have made of the whole thing.

On that basis, I would think (and it is based on nothing more than that) that people will accept that if a border does indeed end up going up then it is not due to the fault of the Irish. Sure, politicos will argue about whether Leo should have done this or that, but I don't think it will be a major voting issue as the parties are largely unified on this and it seems that the public are as well.

So whilst nobody wants it, it would appear that many accept that it is the outcome of the type of Brexit the UK wants.

Water John

Yes, hoping the options are narrowed down. I presume a lot of work goes on, behind the scenes between those backing various indicative options.
I know it's been said often before, but hopefully Wed.

Professor, long extension isn't an option, it's a process to deliver something else.
It's needed if any option outside of WA + CU is chosen. So, No Deal has been rejected by over 400 MPs, should be declared dead.
Choices WA
WA + CU
WA + CU + some SM
Confirmatory vote on any of the above.
Extension needed for 3 & 4.

Professor Moriarty

Peregrinus wrote: »

They are absolutely definitely not going to pressure the government over the backstop.

They are going to pressure the government over border controls. No-deal brexit and no backstop means border controls. They may be introduced gradually and stepped up over time, and there may be some forbearance and much sympathy and a good deal of supportive measures for Ireland, but the integrity of the Single Market must be assured. That's what Angela and Emmanuel are meeting Leo to discuss.

If I am the leader of a dissident Republican group, I am rubbing my hands with glee when I hear this. Border controls = Target practice.