Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Leroy42

Anteayer wrote: »

If you look at this from the EU perspective, which is our perspective as an EU member, what exactly are the UK bringing to the table?

You've a large % of the political spectrum over there hurling abuse at the EU or demanding that it bend to their will and turn itself inside out with reforms that seem to be nothing to do with a discussion, but just a list of demands.

Then you've other politicians actually threatening to dismantle it or otherwise damage it.

They've consistently undermined the development of the Eurozone and anything to do with regulation that might help it stablise because it threatened the dominance of the City of London wild west of modern capitalism.

I just don't really see what they're offering? "Let us have access to your markets so that we can undermine your members by refusing to play by any of the rules?"

They're showing the EU absolutely no solidarity whatsoever, just a whole load of hostility and outright hatred, the vast majority of which is based on nothing other than irrational nationalism.

Even their attitude towards Ireland has been appalling. They're showing scant regard for the hugely delicate situation in Northern Ireland, we've had MPs threaten to cut off our food supply, been told to "know our place" and that's just a few examples of the kind of snide nonsense being hurled our direction.
It's really not much of an offer.

Not really disagreeing with any of that, but I would add that it is only this point in time. The UK have been a major factor in the success of the EU, losing them them damage the EU, not just economically but in terms of size and standing.

Can you imagine if California for eg left the US? We would see that as the start of the breakup of the US.

So, IMO, the hope would be that the UK will, at some point, get through this and return to the fold in the future. Facilitating that, as much as possible, is in everyones interest.

Laois_Man

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Has to be a compromise, May's deal is rejected time and time again. Why can't she give a little and add a customs union to her deal and pass the thing.

In fairness to her, them agreeing to what we currently regard as the Customs Union would be bonkers from their point of view. It would have to be a new kind of customs union.

I also wouldn't be convinced the thing would pass with a CU regardless.

maebee

Good cop, bad cop from Leo and Macron. Nice confirmation from Macron that we're not going under the bus. He's beyond frustrated at the UK

Shelga

I’m really disappointed at the TIG members only voting for a second referendum. They need to get real. They had a chance of voting for a soft Brexit and they wasted it.

Are MPs assuming that they will get the chance to vote on things again and again? IMO it was the responsibility of all of them to vote positively last night for any motion they could live with. Not what their ideal option is.

They are taking a massive risk and are directly responsible for the possibility of no deal increasing massively by the day.

trellheim

Still cant see a way out here before the 13th

woohoo!!!

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

woohoo!!! wrote: »

Do you have any idea about how northern nationalists feel about Westminster? They're not in the least bit surprised by how all this is turning out. They are done with Westminster and will not be dictated to by the likes of the DUP over Stormont. They're looking to Dublin and Brussels to advance their interests.

But the most salient point is, SF entering HoC will be a propaganda coup to DUP, ERG and the red tops, that Corbyn et al are siding with IRA murderers this ending any notion of a softer Brexit.

The blame for the mess lies entirely with the tories and the DUP.

Extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures.
It would only be a 'propaganda coup' for a while real business would be able to begin then.
Sinn Fein should at least consider going to the commons. They might lose some core vote but gain new voters.
That would be real leadership. Sinn Fein are as much to blame for Brexit as the Conservatives May/Cameron/Rees-Mogg et al - Labour - Corbyn and his wishy washy half hearted remain campaign. The DUP -Arelene etc.

But Sinn Fein much perfer being the hurlers in the ditch in the dail/stormont/HOC. They are only opoosition in one and are not in the other two at the moment.
Sinn Fein are as much to blame as the others for Brexit as they hide behind a 'mandate' and do nothing.

The SNP have 35 seats, how's that working out for them? Northern nationalists know and have known for a very long time that their interests are never served in Westminster. I have been reliably informed that the feed back on the ground to both SF and the SDLP, set foot in Westminster and that's the end of you politically. All this dodgy BBC reporting, selection of certain audiences and so on, Nordies have seen it all, multiple times before.

Their interests are best served in Dublin and Brussels. Westminster never cared and never will.

Politically the smart thing for SF to do is sit back, let the DUP continue to screw it up, and point out that this is what we have to deal with all the time.

And before this is construed as bash the Brits, SF are great comment, I've never voted for them and I really dislike the inherited wealth, ruling Eton silver spoon class, not your average brit.

PokeHerKing

Can TM not just bring mv4 forward with the vote choice of her deal or no deal?

ancapailldorcha

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Can TM not just bring mv4 forward with the vote choice of her deal or no deal?

She would need to get past Bercow. To do this she would need either sufficient support from the House which isn't forthcoming or a substantial change to the WA which the EU won't be accommodating. I don't see what maneuvers are available on her end to contort it to get through for another vote.

Peregrinus

MikeSoys wrote: »

..i see now remainders are planning to implement a law to block a no deal...

The draft law will only oblige May to request an A50 extension. It can't (obviously) oblige the EU to grant it, and I don't think it even attempts to oblige May to request it in a way that makes it likely to be granted.

BobbyBobberson

Hopefully not. The anti climax of these things gets me every time.

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1113086639268683776

demfad

Apologies if this was posted already. This was coming down the tracks since the Brexit vote happened.

Under the GFA NI residents can be British or Irish or Both.

http://www.wesleyjohnston.com/users/ireland/today/good_friday/full_text.html

"vi) recognise the birthright of all the people of Northern Ireland to identify themselves and be accepted as Irish or British, or both, as they may so choose, and accordingly confirm that their right to hold both British and Irish citizenship is accepted by both Governments and would not be affected by any future change in the status of Northern Ireland."


Well..not so much. Under British Law those (NI born) who held Irish passports were legally BRITISH people with an IRISH passport.

The anomoly didn't have many tangible consequences to rights etc as all were in EU. After Brexit the British would have had to change their laws to rectify this you would imagine....

Nope! Even though EU citizens in the UK will preserve their rights NI born IRISH citizens in NI will have their EEA rights extinguished.

Look at this in the actual withdrawal agreement:

"RECOGNISING that Irish citizens in Northern Ireland, by virtue of their Union citizenship, will continue to enjoy, exercise and have access to rights, opportunities and benefits, and that this Protocol should respect and be without prejudice to the rights, opportunities and identity that come with citizenship of the Union for the people of Northern Ireland who choose to assert their right to Irish citizenship as defined in Annex 2 of the British-Irish Agreement "Declaration on the Provisions of Paragraph (vi) of Article 1 in Relation to Citizenship"
https://ec.europa.eu/.../draft_withdrawal_agreement_0.pdf

They are literally intending to contravene the WA on Day 1 of the WA coming into force (assuming etc.)

This also confirms my suspicion that the media focus on 'border infrastructure' as cause of backstop misses many other reasons.

The WA also agrees to protect Union citizens rights and N/S cooperation (assuming similar customs/laws).

Even if border technology from Alpha Centauri was available you would still need a backstop!!


P.S I have emailed Monsieur Barnier's Office to point this out (seriously)

Peregrinus

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Can TM not just bring mv4 forward with the vote choice of her deal or no deal?

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

She would need to get past Bercow. To do this she would need either sufficient support from the House which isn't forthcoming or a substantial change to the WA which the EU won't be accommodating. I don't see what maneuvers are available on her end to contort it to get through for another vote.

It doesn't have to be a substantive change to the deal; it has to be a substantive change to the resolution being put before the House. So if she changed it from. . .

"This House approves the deal"

. . . to, e.g., . . .

"This House calls for the deal to be put before the people in a referendum [with the alternative of remaining in the EU] [with the alternative of leaving the EU with no deal] and will approve the deal if, and only if, it is supported by a majority in that referendum"

. . . I think that would be a materially different resolution and Bercow would allow it.

Zubeneschamali

marno21 wrote: »

They will blame the EU and a whole host of others and the violent rhetoric and division will get worse.

Yes, I am afraid it is going to get pretty unpleasant for EU citizens living in the UK.

Enzokk

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Has to be a compromise, May's deal is rejected time and time again. Why can't she give a little and add a customs union to her deal and pass the thing.

Her self imposed red lines is preventing her from finding compromise. She set out these red lines herself and has now boxed herself into accepting them.

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Hopefully not. The anti climax of these things gets me every time.

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1113086639268683776

What is this now, the 4th or 5th time? I was hopeful the 1st time she would go, certain the 2nd and learned my lesson by the third. Now I am expecting her to just confirm they will stay the course, her deal is the only one on offer and Brexit will mean Brexit.

ancapailldorcha

Peregrinus wrote: »

It doesn't have to be a substantive change to the deal; it has to be a substantive change to the resolution being put before the House. So if she changed it from. . .

"This House approves the deal"

. . . to, e.g., . . .

"This House calls for the deal to be put before the people in a referendum [with the alternative of remaining in the EU] [with the alternative of leaving the EU with no deal] and will approve the deal if, and only if, it is supported by a majority in that referendum"

. . . I think that would be a materially different resolution and Bercow would allow it.

That'd easily meet the criteria if May weren't so dead set against a referendum. That's the main issue there. It'll have to be something else unless Parliament actually votes for it.

Dubh Geannain

@demfad. Had just read about this on twitter. Worth following for further developments. Scandalous is all I can say.

https://twitter.com/emmandjdesouza?lang=en



https://twitter.com/EmmandJDeSouza/status/1113089020576313344

Peregrinus

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

That'd easily meet the criteria if May weren't so dead set against a referendum. That's the main issue there . . .

The question is, is she more dead set against a referendum than she is against no-deal?

Water John

Everybody in the EU is aware that TM has no great problem getting the WA passed. All she has to do is be a bit flexible, add a CU or 2nd Ref etc.
But TM is putting her Party before Country. She is failing to act as PM of the UK.

ancapailldorcha

Peregrinus wrote: »

The question is, is she more dead set against a referendum than she is against no-deal?

I would say so. She is a right wing authoritarian. There is nothing more anathema to her than the whole process potentially being reversed with her having spent so much of her time and political capital on it simply because the public have changed their minds.

Harry Palmr

Brexit devices found on rail lines -

https://twitter.com/i_spywithMyEye/status/1113102007970250754

BobbyBobberson

The irony of them being found in Yaxley. I wonder is the perpetrator a Tommy Robinson fan.

No 10 have denied there is a tv address tonight according to same journalist from earlier.

Hurrache

I saw that mentioned earlier. Apparently they can't even stop the trains right as the device was based on an old system that is no longer in use as a way to monitor train movement.

Dubh Geannain

Emma DeSouza coming up in Drivetime now discussing being forced to be British post Brexit.

Akrasia

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

She would need to get past Bercow. To do this she would need either sufficient support from the House which isn't forthcoming or a substantial change to the WA which the EU won't be accommodating. I don't see what maneuvers are available on her end to contort it to get through for another vote.

She could bring a motion for her deal including a confirmatory referendum, and whip for it. This would almost certainly pass the house and it would be the most democratic way of doing it (especially if there is a remain option on the referendum)

Except May is inexplicably opposed to the concept of allowing the people to decide the future course of their country for generations to come.

She seems to prefer a crash out than a referendum, even if it's a referendum on her own deal, which she pretends to believe is good for the UK.

Akrasia

Peregrinus wrote: »

The draft law will only oblige May to request an A50 extension. It can't (obviously) oblige the EU to grant it, and I don't think it even attempts to oblige May to request it in a way that makes it likely to be granted.

We've seen May already deliberately request an extension that she knew that the EU would refuse to grant. May has already been found in contempt of parliament, she has no problem with doing the same again and requesting an extension that she knows won't be granted.

May is in her end game. She wants the clock to be run down, and to force parliament to vote for her deal to avoid no deal (or no brexit, she's playing both sides against each other, in plain sight too)

Water John

She's still afraid to upset the ERG, even though they have been proved to be a busted flush.

Hurrache

Some light entertainment on Sky News with Kay Burley and Beth Rigby talking nonsense and laughing trying to kill time while awaiting the MPs to exit no. 10.

Topgear on Dave

Seven and a half hour long cabinet meeting and it's still going on....

Akrasia

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

Seven and a half hour long cabinet meeting and it's still going on....

Statement from inside number 10 shortly. No General election is expected. Just more waffle probably. She might just insult everyone again

Hurrache

With apparently no cabinet member texting their source while they pop into the toilet. It's very tight lipped as to what's happening.