Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Enzokk

This is interesting. A couple of points:

Will the EU give her an extension? I doubt it as they will need the deal to pass first and will not want to have the threat of no-deal right against the EU parliamentary elections.

Will she give ground on her red lines? She wasn't clear on that and I don't see how this changes anything as the WA cannot be changed now. You could change the Political Declaration but it has no legal standing and is only something both sides will work towards.

What will the ERG do now? Will there be resignations from cabinet? What is to stop them from nudging Labour into a vote of no-confidence in May? Surely they will be looking at this seriously now? You only need about 10 of the extreme MPs and she loses that vote.

Ian Dunt is of the opinion that this is a trap and it is still just her deal or no-deal. Remember words cannot take no-deal off the table, it is actually passing legislation to do that by agreeing a deal.

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1113131791756546049

MikeSoys

Water John wrote: »

This though is eating serious, humble pie for TM and Corbyn and all other opposition parties will make her eat it.
No Deal off the table. that's the sum of what she has declared. It is a major decision and a relief for us.

is no deal off the table? she implied this before

Hurrache

MikeSoys wrote: »

is no deal off the table? she implied this before

It can't be unless they vote for the WA.

Joe_ Public

I dont see how exactly no deal is off the table. It's off the table on April 12 if EU agree to another extension, but if May and Corbyn agree nothing - more likely than not i would imagine - what then? GE hardly solves much, would be last chance saloon with EU i think.

johnnyskeleton

force eleven wrote: »

The EU is Hotel California. You can check out but never leave. I hope there are massive protests planned. Out means out.

Mod note:

Serious posts only please. This is not a thread for repeating slogans in the hope that you will get a reaction from other posters! That is trolling

Itssoeasy

I've seen the statement now. So the ERG and DUP thinking they are standing up for their voters(who presumably voted to leave) may have pushed the prime minister to having to get a softer brexit.

FrancieBrady

MikeSoys wrote: »

is no deal off the table? she implied this before

No- Deal doesn't come off the table until there is a Deal passed. Simple as that and stated many times now.

gooch2k9

The Guardian reporting JC response expected within 15 minutes.

Have to say I agree with Ian Dunt's appraisal.

Laois_Man

I never thought 'no deal' would happen and I still don't

but the EU are not going to agree to any extension unless May and Corbyn have agreed on something and something has passed in Parliament in the next 8 days and is the definite way forward.

Forget that!

Therefore No Deal is NOT off the table!

rubbledoubledo

I knew it. This will drag on and on , extension after extension. Thought the EU want something concrete before they would give one. Nothing new here . The EU have a chance to finish it here and now

jester77

Surely this plays into Labour's hands to now table a vote of no confidence. Very risky and reaks of desperation.

hotmail.com

She appeared to say that a no deal Brexit is off the agenda.

This seems to be great news for Ireland.

PropJoe10

Hard to know what'll happen now, but she should've been reaching out to Labour after the 2017 election shambles. Better late then never I suppose, but it'll be interesting to see how Corbyn reacts to this.

Hurrache

The other way to look at this is that May spent the whole day meeting and negotiating with her own govenment, and the product of all those hours is that she has to ask the leader of the opposition party to come and help her.

robinph

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

It wasn’t a pointless statement.

She pretty much said that the hard Brexiteers within her own party and the DUP will have no influence within the next discussions and will work directly with the opposition.

They have already had enough of a say in proceedings that they nearly have their hard brexit. She is also asking for things that she knows will not be allowed by the EU.

PokeHerKing

So it's on labour now if there's no deal? If they don't agree to pass the WA then it's no deal?

I don't see anything she's done other than said I need labour to pass my deal because my own party are split and I can't pass it otherwise.

hotmail.com

Hurrache wrote:

The other way to look at this is that May spent the whole day meeting and negotiating with her own govenment, and the product of all those hours is that she has to ask the leader of the opposition party to come and help her.

I wonder What on earth they were talking about for 8 hours.

PropJoe10

Hurrache wrote: »

The other way to look at this is that May spent the whole day meeting and negotiating with her own govenment, and the product of all those hours is that she has to ask the leader of the opposition party to come and help her.

Yeah, reality is biting hard now, but it should've bitten about a year ago as I said. Hopefully she's starting to open her eyes on that but if she's expecting Corbyn to help unless she drops her "red lines" she'll be barking up the wrong tree.

FrancieBrady

Hilary Benn less than hopeful that May is genuine

bob mcbob

I don't think it is a trap.

Half the cabinet have said they will resign if it is a no-deal. The other half have said they will resign if it is a CU & SM.

So rather than her making the decision and she is responsible for the Tory split she is now saying that parliament will make the decision.

I do not think ultimately it will make any difference.

BluePlanet

I haven't read all 415 pages, but has anybody actually discussed what a hard border here will look like?
Dublin-Belfast train: would it have to axe the Gormanstown, Drogheda, Dundalk stops and have a customs check at source and destination?

Capt'n Midnight

hotmail.com wrote: »

She appeared to say that a no deal Brexit is off the agenda.

This seems to be great news for Ireland.

She appeared to say...

She said she wants Labour to sign up to her deal.

She said she won't lead the Tories into the next scheduled GE in 2022.

She said she would resign if her deal passed, knowing that the backstop was against the DUP's religion.

briany

As I understand it - and I'm very much open to correction here - if May asks for an extension up to May 22nd, and the EU accepts, but the UK does not at least stand UK EUP candidates for election, then May 22nd is very much the deadline, come deal or no deal. Is that all correct?

Capt'n Midnight

briany wrote: »

As I understand it - and I'm very much open to correction here - if May asks for an extension up to May 22nd, and the EU accepts, but the UK does not at least stand UK EUP candidates for election, then May 22nd is very much the deadline, come deal or no deal. Is that all correct?

No.

The EU have said WA, Norway (not Norway +++ ) , CU, but the deadline is the 12th.

IF and ONLY IF the UK sign up OR propose something equally valid (Ha Ha) will they get an extension TO May 22nd.


Otherwise it's Hard Brexit on the 12th OR a LONG extension beyond the EU elections.

Laois_Man

briany wrote: »

As I understand it - and I'm very much open to correction here - if May asks for an extension up to May 22nd, and the EU accepts, but the UK does not at least stand UK EUP candidates for election, then May 22nd is very much the deadline, come deal or no deal. Is that all correct?

No. For organizing the seat numbers in all the other 27 countries, the EU needs to know on Friday of next week whether the UK are running in those elections.

So HoC needs to pass it's agreeable withdrawal motion before then....and probably before Wednesday the 10th

Good one eh!

ShooterSF

briany wrote: »

As I understand it - and I'm very much open to correction here - if May asks for an extension up to May 22nd, and the EU accepts, but the UK does not at least stand UK EUP candidates for election, then May 22nd is very much the deadline, come deal or no deal. Is that all correct?

Yes but the only way I can see them offering her that extension is if she legally agrees that the UK can no longer revoke A50 unilaterally or they risk still having them in but with no EU elections in the UK.

briany

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

No.

The EU have said WA, Norway (not Norway +++ ) , CU, but the deadline is the 12th.

IF and ONLY IF the UK sign up OR propose something equally valid (Ha Ha) will they get an extension TO May 22nd.


Otherwise it's Hard Brexit on the 12th OR a LONG extension beyond the EU elections.

I was talking about the scenario where the EU accepts May's proposal of extending to the 22nd for talks with Labour, which is, admittedly, highly unlikely-looking.

Joe_ Public

Assume this means no 4th MV this week.

Hurrache

MEPs see through her like a crystal clear window
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1113139064780271618?s=19

MikeSoys

corbyn to give a statement shortly i believe. sky news imply he will welcome the invitation.

Can Corbyn save TM and her deal by adding a CU to it?..but DUP can still block progress?