Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Enzokk

bob mcbob wrote: »

I don't think it is a trap.

Half the cabinet have said they will resign if it is a no-deal. The other half have said they will resign if it is a CU & SM.

So rather than her making the decision and she is responsible for the Tory split she is now saying that parliament will make the decision.

I do not think ultimately it will make any difference.

The more people think about it, people tweeting, the more is seems a trap to me. The WA will not be touched without a long extension and May has ruled that out. The only thing the EU can and will change is the PD, but this is not a legal treaty and the next PM can change it as he sees fit. So if May resigns as she said but got the PD changed to suit Labour to vote for her deal, what happens when Johnson takes over and ignores the PD and goes on his own way?

How can Labour stop him from doing that and how can May?

hotmail.com

Had the European elections been next year, an extension would have happened ages ago!

The UK not having much luck with this process.

Joe_ Public

I think whether he likes it or not, labour front bench will insist Corbyn lays down a confirmative vote red line before voting for WA. Thats the prize labour MPs want and see no reason they won't go for it.

Professor Moriarty

hotmail.com wrote: »

Had the European elections been next year, an extension would have happened ages ago!

The UK not having much luck with this process.

You make your own luck.

briany

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I think whether he likes it or not, labour front bench will insist Corbyn lays down a confirmative vote red line before voting for WA. Thats the prize labour MPs want and see no reason they won't go for it.

A confirmatory public vote will require an extension well into the year to minimise disruption. May will remind Corbyn of that.

Enzokk

hotmail.com wrote: »

Had the European elections been next year, an extension would have happened ages ago!

The UK not having much luck with this process.

The UK had one advantage in the negotiations, that is that they would choose the date of withdrawal. If they had waited 3 months then they could have used the European elections as leverage to get something from the EU in return to getting it all sorted in time not to disrupt the elections. But May decided the date and she triggered it before having a plan.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

You make your own luck.

Exactly.

10000maniacs

It just means she is finally ditching the ERG and going with a customs union. It seems she does not care now what happens to the Tories in the aftermath.

EKRIUQ

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I dont see how exactly no deal is off the table. It's off the table on April 12 if EU agree to another extension, but if May and Corbyn agree nothing - more likely than not i would imagine - what then? GE hardly solves much, would be last chance saloon with EU i think.

I don't think so, I imagine that the UK government like I did when the 12th of April and 22nd of May was announced they knew they had an extension of 22nd of May in the bag forget about the 12th.

And unless the EU put there foot down the 22nd of May will come again and another extension looked for.

All voices from Europe so far is that they will agree to the further extension of the 22nd of May

looksee

force eleven wrote: »

The EU is Hotel California. You can check out but never leave. I hope there are massive protests planned. Out means out.

The UK can leave whenever they want, the EU is not stopping them. Who do you expect to protest, and about what?

Joe_ Public

EKRIUQ wrote: »

I don't think so, I imagine that the UK government like I did when the 12th of April and 22nd of May was announced they knew they had an extension of 22nd of May in the bag forget about the 12th.

And unless the EU put there foot down the 22nd of May will come again and another extension looked for.

All voices from Europe so far is that they will agree to the further extension of the 22nd of May

Needless to say, i'd hope you're right but I couldn't share the absolute conviction. "All voices" can't surely included the likes of Guy Verhofstadt who seems almost to be accepting no deal as the inevitable outcomes. I think he's far from alone in his pessimism too. Unless you imagine he's playing some sort of tactical game? And i actually do believe Theresa May only cared for April 12 and imagined she'd get her WA through, she is that deluded.

Laois_Man

According to Beth Rigby - 10 cabinet ministers wanted a long extension, 14 wanted a No Deal or a short extension and 2 abstained

Cabinet ministers holding off on resignations, but only for now.

Laois_Man

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I think whether he likes it or not, labour front bench will insist Corbyn lays down a confirmative vote red line before voting for WA. Thats the prize labour MPs want and see no reason they won't go for it.

That's a dreadful idea - the WA wouldn't pass in a referendum IMO - it solves nothing but drags all this crap out for a whole year further!

Laois_Man

Corbyn "Very happy" to meet with Theresa May!

Professor Moriarty

Laois_Man wrote: »

Corbyn "Very happy" to meet with Theresa May!

He doesn't have a choice so he might as well be 'happy'.

Joe_ Public

Laois_Man wrote: »

That's a dreadful idea - the WA wouldn't pass in a referendum IMO - it solves nothing but drags all this crap out for a whole year further!

Yes, I do see that point. I'm not necessarily suggesting that it necessarily ends up WA v Remain but from that starting point, they work out a confirmatory vote framework that can satisfy the largest amount of people and ultimately settle it for a few years at least.

MikeSoys

"It is very disappointing that the cabinet has decided to entrust the final handling of Brexit to Jeremy Corbyn." Boris Johnson comments on Theresa May's plan https://t.co/Yzt74zKX0N https://t.co/HmXnMv1b8m

FrancieBrady

Corbyn not setting a confirmatory vote as a red line in his Sky interview.

Akrasia

FrancieBrady wrote: »

No- Deal doesn't come off the table until there is a Deal passed. Simple as that and stated many times now.

Stated many times by Theresa May, but this is wrong because it ignores the option to revoke A50.


Or one of the other kinds of ammendments like the Cherry motion last night. No deal can be taken off the table by either voting for a deal, or voting for a mechanism that automatically revokes A50 if there is no other deal agreed.

This should be a precondition of Corbyn before he agrees to compromise with May. Its the obly way to keep her honest

FrancieBrady

Akrasia wrote: »

Or one of the other kinds of ammendments like the Cherry motion last night. No deal can be taken off the table by either voting gor a deal, or voting for a mechanism that automatically revokes A50 if there is no other deal agreed.

This should be a precondition of Corbyn before he agrees to compromise with May. Its the obly way to keep her honest

That was the point. You can't 'rule out' No Deal as a stand alone vote. There has to be something else.

Shelga

I try to give Jeremy Corbyn the benefit of the doubt (somewhat), especially as he seems to be finally taking Labour members' views on board, but then I think of that biography that basically makes him out to be a simpleton who has never read a book, and of him storming out of consensus talks because Chukka Umuna was there...

And I can't help but think that even if these accusations are only partly true, I wish Keir Starmer was head of the Labour Party.

Akrasia

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That was the point. You can't 'rule out' No Deal as a stand alone vote. There has to be something else.

It would take one vote to change the legal default from crashing out without a deal, to revoking Article 50

Kermit.de.frog

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Corbyn not setting a confirmatory vote as a red line in his Sky interview.

Because he knows it's an impossible ask of May given the state of the tory party.

Customs union however...

FrancieBrady

Akrasia wrote: »

It would take one vote to change the legal default from crashing out without a deal, to revoking Article 50

Yes. They have decided to do something else.
May offering to meet Corbyn does not 'take No Deal off the table' though. THey will have to approve something and get it through parliament (i.e. doing something else) for it to come off.

tuxy

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Because he knows it's an impossible ask of May given the state of the tory party.

Customs union however...

There's also the fact that it's no secret that Corbyn has always wanted the UK out of the EU but to still have close ties for trade.

ancapailldorcha

Off topic posts deleted.

Spanish Eyes

Bojo on LBC now, and is uncompromising. Need to take back sovereignty, make our own laws yada yada. There is really no end to this debacle.

Never had much time for him anyway, so maybe my views are coloured a bit.

Professor Moriarty

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Bojo on LBC now, and is uncompromising. Need to take back sovereignty, make our own laws yada yada. There is really no end to this debacle.

Never had much time for him anyway, so maybe my views are coloured a bit.

Eurosceptism is emboldened and is here for the long haul. Britain will be a divided country for at least a generation.

Spanish Eyes

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Eurosceptism is emboldened and is here for the long haul. Britain will be a divided country for at least a generation.

Funny that you say that. Met with some UK people earlier today, and they are so embarrassed by all this. Whether that was for my benefit or not I am not sure, but the subject was moved on to something else sharpish. Very telling.

The unfortunate thing is, that the hubris of SOME in UK now is nauseous to me anyway, they know what they want, but cannot justify the consequences of it, nor do they care as long as the retrieve their borders, their sovereignty ( thought they have that already), and control of immigration etc.

The irony is, that the immigrant issue that they are so exercised about has nothing to do with Free Movement within the EU.

I fear for those who have not analysed all this. But that sounds arrogant, not meant to be, just a reaction to all I have seen and heard already.

Mr.Wemmick

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Bojo on LBC now, and is uncompromising. Need to take back sovereignty, make our own laws yada yada. There is really no end to this debacle.

Never had much time for him anyway, so maybe my views are coloured a bit.

No, he is really disliked here in the UK, where I am anyway.. think we are all sick of the Tory show. A weak opposition means many feel trapped with the Tories and stuck with their bungling methods of non transparent game playing and selling the country out to save themselves, their fantasies and their party. It's sickening.

I hope the EU forces them to take a long extension and allow time for some voice of sanity to come along and rise above the rabble.

marno21

I feel sorry for genuine people in the UK who didn't vote for any of this and are possibly facing the prospect of trade guru Liam Fox handing over the keys of the UK to the US in 10 days time in the name of "global Britain".

The long term consequences of this nonsense will be severe - and it will be too late by the time they manifest themselves.