Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

trellheim

The point made above re JRM is true - here is what was said

on a point of order, Mr Speaker. I wonder whether you might be in a position to confirm that, as a matter of constitutional fact, a motion of this House, though important, cannot override statute law.

Mr Speaker

A motion of the House does not override statute law—that is true. If Members who have supported a motion want to ensure its ultimate success, further steps are required. I think that Members who have keenly attended to these matters in recent weeks are aware of that, and they know that there are opportunities available to them if they wish to take those opportunities.

https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2019-03-13/debates/31D9EDE0-5E57-4491-81E7-77DD7C279DBE/UK%E2%80%99SWithdrawalFromTheEuropeanUnion#contribution-3249E539-11BE-475D-AED7-BC5918B6A033


The point being, of course, that overriding legislation to push back the A50 date would be required.

The current "what happens next" according to the BBC.

An Ciarraioch

Two intriguing opinion polls today - one, for a general election, suggests the eurosceptic vote that had coalesced around the Tories is fracturing again, while a European election survey indicates that the UK would actually elect more pro-European MEPs than in 2014:

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1107296322707750912

http://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1107287915099574273

I would love to know how many NOTA (none of the above) votes there were.

Or she was a genius that figured out she'd have the best shot at her country to remain in the UK...

Sam Russell

Deleted User wrote: »

Or she was a genius that figured out she'd have the best shot at her country to remain in the UK...

Even Baldrick would not be that cunning.

briany

If I was the ERG, I'd accept May's deal at this point. OK, they have to put up with remaining in the Customs Union, but this is only a temporary matter. The entire WA is only intended to be temporary. Better to have a definite timeline toward what you want than wondering whether you'll get it at all. The fact that the ERG seem to want Brexit right now is not a point brought up enough. If they could stand biding their time for so long, can they really not stand another 2 years?

trashcan

Deleted User wrote: »

Or she was a genius that figured out she'd have the best shot at her country to remain in the UK...

If that was/is her strategy and it works out then she truly is a tactical genius.

Doesn't seem very likely though.

trashcan

briany wrote: »

If I was the ERG, I'd accept May's deal at this point. OK, they have to put up with remaining in the Customs Union, but this is only a temporary matter. The entire WA is only intended to be temporary. Better to have a definite timeline toward what you want than wondering whether you'll get it at all. The fact that the ERG seem to want Brexit right now is not a point brought up enough. If they could stand biding their time for so long, can they really not stand another 2 years?

I would agree with you that if they really want Brexit now, at any price, then they need to back Mays deal. The danger from their point of view is that once it's extended at all there is a huge increase in the likelihood that it will never happen. That's why they won't want to wait another year or two.

I kind of hope it fails again if it's brought to a vote. Might just force them to come to their senses. Then again part of me is thinking, let them go and good riddance. I would feel sorry for the millions of ordinary intelligent people over there if it does happen. I wonder is the dismal turn out at Farages march today any indication that the tide of popular opinion may be turning, or is it just fatigue ? There is a huge danger that they will sleepwalk into all sorts of trouble just through sheer apathy. Even those who voted leave surely weren't expecting this much of a sh1tfest.

Capt'n Midnight

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

On the fly...they have had 2 years. Not our problem that May fcuked up.

They've had a lot longer than that.

Our ERSI published the Brexit report in 2015 in response it being on the Tory manifesto. It quoted German reports from 2014.

It's like EU countries have been contingency planning for multiple types of Brexit for years, because they have.

And the UK despite historical Euro scepticism hasn't.

looksee

I sincerely hope it does fail, I'm hoping to be building a house shortly and I reckon if they are out the cost of the house will soar.

An Ciarraioch

http://twitter.com/PresidentIRL/status/1107333902396469254

Capt'n Midnight

briany wrote: »

If I was the ERG, I'd accept May's deal at this point. OK, they have to put up with remaining in the Customs Union, but this is only a temporary matter. The entire WA is only intended to be temporary. Better to have a definite timeline toward what you want than wondering whether you'll get it at all. The fact that the ERG seem to want Brexit right now is not a point brought up enough. If they could stand biding their time for so long, can they really not stand another 2 years?

Oh dear. Yeah. I can't understand it either.

Well I do but it's insane. It's not the politics of the rest of the EU , EFTA.

Cameron bet everything on the referendum. No half measures, no Plan-B, nothing, no compromise.

Corbyn is betting everything on getting AND winning a general election as a hard left party. Any compromise on the hard left line and Labour would walk the next election and be stable enough to do a deal with the EU.

The ERG want Brexit now , because there's no going back. Again no compromise.

DUP ? compromise ?


All or Nothing. Any thing other than a total win is a loss, an incremental step isn't enough. It's just so black and white.

And they are looking for wiggle room against negotiators who will give written clarifications on written clarifications on the words used in a 595 page document.

Enzokk

The ERG and those MPs that want to leave without a deal has to make the calculation on whether Theresa May's deal is their best way to leave the EU or if they oppose it whether the paralysis in parliament around Brexit will be enough for them to leave without a deal and thus totally out from the EU.

They need to try and predict what May would do and what the EU would do if her vote fails again. The UK will ask for an extension but if May is not willing to give them a plan going forward there is a chance they will not grant an extension. Will she ask for a second referendum or general election? What if she resigns, will whoever takes over be able to negotiate a deal and will it be enough for the EU?

I think for all sides the stakes are extremely high right now. All options are still on the table;

• Leave with May's deal
• Leave without a deal
• Second referendum
• General election

It will be fascinating to see who blinks and what the consequences of that will be. We are in for another turbulent week either way as even her deal passing will not calm things down for any side.

CelticRambler

briany wrote: »

If I was the ERG, I'd accept May's deal at this point. OK, they have to put up with remaining in the Customs Union, but this is only a temporary matter. The entire WA is only intended to be temporary. Better to have a definite timeline toward what you want than wondering whether you'll get it at all. The fact that the ERG seem to want Brexit right now is not a point brought up enough. If they could stand biding their time for so long, can they really not stand another 2 years?

Well no, because the longer Brexit it put on hold, the less likely it is to happen.

Almost by definition, if you subscribe to the ERG, you believe in the iimpossible; but the impossible remains completely possible at the moment because the 29th of March is no-deal Brexit Day. There is no motion to revoke Art. 50; there is no motion to reschedule Brexit Day so that a request can be made of the EU for an extension; and the EU has not received such a request, so cannot possibly grant one. There is also next to no time for any of this to be done, and there is sufficient disunity in the HoC to justify a belief that TM will somehow manage to mess this up as she has every other step of the process.

But also, the WA is not guaranteed to be "temporary". If you were an ERG member with three functioning brain cells (I know, I know, that's bordering on unicornistic theology, but just go with it for now) you'd look two years down the road and see the EU running rings 'round a team of incompetent British negotiators, tying the UK into a FTA that'd make a BRINO-Brexit look like a bad deal! In that context, 'tis better to grab the cake now while it's in reach; you can always eat it later.

briany

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Oh dear. Yeah. I can't understand it either.

Well I do but it's insane. It's not the politics of the rest of the EU , EFTA.

Cameron bet everything on the referendum. No half measures, no Plan-B, nothing, no compromise.

Corbyn is betting everything on getting AND winning a general election as a hard left party. Any compromise on the hard left line and Labour would walk the next election and be stable enough to do a deal with the EU.

The ERG want Brexit now , because there's no going back. Again no compromise.

DUP ? compromise ?


All or Nothing. Any thing other than a total win is a loss, an incremental step isn't enough. It's just so black and white.

And they are looking for wiggle room against negotiators who will give written clarifications on written clarifications on the words used in a 595 page document.

Compromise is the key word. It's ironic that you have a Euro-sceptic wing of British politics that tried its damnedest to get every concession possible out their governments on the matter of Europe over the last 2 or 3 decades, and yet won't concede any ground of their own. This is a disturbing mindset.

It's also funny when you have Leave supporters criticising Remain supporters for not getting on board with Brexit after the referendum. Excuse me, but was Jacob Rees Mogg going to be any more on board with the European project if Remain had won by the same margin? Was a taxi driver from Sunderland going to relent and put little EU flags on his wing mirrors? Of course they wouldn't. They'd have seen the vote as a massive validation, and as a mandate for continued agitation.

trashcan

briany wrote: »

It's also funny when you have Leave supporters criticising Remain supporters for not getting on board with Brexit after the referendum. Excuse me, but was Jacob Rees Mogg going to be any more on board with the European project if Remain had won by the same margin? Was a taxi driver from Sunderland going to relent and put little EU flags on his wing mirrors? Of course they wouldn't. They'd have seen the vote as a massive validation, and as a mandate for continued agitation.

Good point. The remainders are constantly being told "the people have spoken, you lost , so suck it up, losers." Can you imagine Farage, Rees Mogg, Johnson etc if the vote had been reversed, going, ok the people have spoken so I'm going to stop agitating to leave the EU now ? Like hell they would.

ancapailldorcha

briany wrote: »

Compromise is the key word. It's ironic that you have a Euro-sceptic wing of British politics that tried its damnedest to get every concession possible out their governments on the matter of Europe over the last 2 or 3 decades, and yet won't concede any ground of their own. This is a disturbing mindset.

The mad thing is that until 2016 British Euroscepticism was quite a pragmatic creed. It of course advocated leaving the EU but maintaining as close an alignment with Brussels as possible, ie single market membership or something very similar to that. It was only after the referendum that the arch-Brexiters (I've decided to drop the "-eer" suffix) realized that they began to agitate for an exit on the harshest possible terms under the pretext of upholding the will of the people.

briany wrote: »

It's also funny when you have Leave supporters criticising Remain supporters for not getting on board with Brexit after the referendum. Excuse me, but was Jacob Rees Mogg going to be any more on board with the European project if Remain had won by the same margin? Was a taxi driver from Sunderland going to relent and put little EU flags on his wing mirrors? Of course they wouldn't. They'd have seen the vote as a massive validation, and as a mandate for continued agitation.

Speaking of one hedge-fund manager/democrat talking of the hedging of bets:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B3rX4nJ0snc

Farage himself admitted that they'd keep going regardless.

Look. I didn't wake up on the 24th June 2016, read the result and think that we needed a rerun. The sensible, indeed the only course of action was to maintain membership of the single market and customs union. Instead, David Cameron scarpered into his garden shed while his successor painted herself into a minuscule box with her red lines. The EU tried to accommodate this in the negotiations while her party's warring factions tore into each other while the leader of the opposition did as close to nothing as possible.

So here we are.

Kermit.de.frog

The deal is sure to pass this week?

The Brexiteers know that the vote not passing this time could ultimately mean no Brexit.

Can't even see the hardcore brexiters taking that gamble.

I think they'll hold their nose and vote for it.

trashcan

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Look. I didn't wake up on the 24th June 2016, read the result and think that we needed a rerun. The sensible, indeed the only course of action was to maintain membership of the single market and customs union. Instead, David Cameron scarpered into his garden shed while his successor painted herself into a minuscule box with her red lines. The EU tried to accommodate this in the negotiations while her party's warring factions tore into each other while the leader of the opposition did as close to nothing as possible.

So here we are.

Indeed. There was nothing in the referendum question about what form the exit should take, so they couldn't have been accused of not upholding "the will of the people " if they had sensibly decided to stay in the Customs Unit and single market. It would also mean the backstop wouldn't have arisen as an issue. Now of course they are almost trying to tell us that the vote was for no deal.

fly_agaric

The deal is sure to pass this week?

I don't think so...it has been defeated by very large margins both times.
Alot more than just the hard brexiteers/DUP are voting against it.
It is finished IMO. Outcomes are either they leave with no agreement in place (maybe after a delay) or there's some sort of shift in politics in the UK that will throw up another option.

edit: very hard to see where political change comes from, May won't resign of her own accord. Her party won't get rid of her. None of the leading lights seem to want the job right now. Her party (and its supporters etc.) are absolutely terrified of having an election any time soon because of Comrade Corbyn waiting under the bed etc...

Kermit.de.frog

What's the best outcome for us here?

That the deal passes or does not pass?

briany

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The mad thing is that until 2016 British Euroscepticism was quite a pragmatic creed. It of course advocated leaving the EU but maintaining as close an alignment with Brussels as possible, ie single market membership or something very similar to that. It was only after the referendum that the arch-Brexiters (I've decided to drop the "-eer" suffix) realized that they began to agitate for an exit on the harshest possible terms under the pretext of upholding the will of the people.

They advocated close alignment with the EU on the UK's terms, which would sound good to any Brexite(e)r. But this was an assumption based on nothing other than emotional/anecdotal arguments and the Euro-sceptics agreeing among themselves. It's not surprising that their views were internally unchallenged, but pretty shameful that real probing questions were not asked more often by those outside the bubble.

I mean, it should have been a no-brainer for Cameron to ask his Euro-sceptic colleagues to put down in writing what they thought leaving the EU would mean, e.g.

Cameron: What about Northern Ireland? What'll we do about the border?

ERG: Technology

Cameron: Show me a workable technological proposal

ERG: ....

Cameron should never have granted a referendum, given that the Leave side had not, despite a good couple of decades of mounting agitation, put any real thought into how their political will would be enacted.

Imreoir2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

What's the best outcome for us here?

That the deal passes or does not pass?

From best to worst

1. No Brexit
2. WA Brexit
3. No-deal Brexit
4. No Backstop Brexit

Kermit.de.frog

Imreoir2 wrote: »

From best to worst

1. No Brexit
2. WA Brexit
3. No-deal Brexit
4. No Backstop Brexit

So it's marginally better for us that the deal does not pass this week?

fly_agaric

IMO, that agreement just passes through may be better in the long term for us now considering our future is probably bound up with the health of the EU (no more chaos with new referenda/elections, attempts to delay/revoke article 50 etc).

Whatever the future holds the river will have been crossed.
The rest of the EU members can go ahead and plan/think about the EU's future without the UK (and the UK can plan for its own future outside the EU. In a way I think the politics of "remainers" hoping against hope "something"/"someone" will come along to stop Brexit prevents this from happening).

The EU and its members have alot of external and internal troubles to deal without all this chaos and uncertainty due to UK politics.
The withdrawal agreement gives a bit of certainty.
It kicks the can down the road for a few years, maybe with hope that there are some positive (from our point of view) political changes in the UK leading to potential for a better relationship between it and the EU. It also protects NI somewhat.

edit: As said, doubt it will come into effect now and something else (?? - god knows what!) will happen.

tuxy

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

So it's marginally better for us that the deal does not pass this week?

No really, the deal not passing would mean no deal is still possible.
If it passed we get the second best outcome for sure and it ends some of the uncertainty. And although it will hurt trade especially in the short term we me be better off with no UK MEPs as many of them want to destabilise the EU.

black forest

The timing if TM should get the WA through is clear. There will be negotiations of the final Agreement between the UK and EU till the end of 2020. This can be extended till end of 2022 anyway without problems.

Quite differently a No Deal crash out of the UK. From one day to the other all contracts with the EU will be zeroed. A few month ago the EU put up a unilateral catalogue of measures to guarantee a fluid transition. Some brexiteers saw that as an example for the so called `mini deals ´. In realty it´s just damage control by the EU to feather the impact of Brexit for it´s own people.

Thankfully the Institute for Government, a renowned think tank in the UK, has just put up a simplified chart of these measures. They are unilateral and reciprocal. So if the UK doesn’t play ball the EU will cancel this measure within a minute.

https://twitter.com/instituteforgov/status/1107337048011075584?s=21


Direct link


Food for thought anyway as it makes quite clear how it will feel to be a third country without any kind of deal.

Hurrache

So this is apparently what the DUP are being bribed with. Bizarre because if the DUP buy it, Brexiteers won't, certainly not the ERG. She's trying to divide them and pit them against each other.
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1107347819067834372?s=19

sunbeam

Hurrache wrote: »

So this is apparently what the DUP are being bribed with. Bizarre because if the DUP buy it, Brexiteers won't, certainly not the ERG. She's trying to divide them and pit them against each other.
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1107347819067834372?s=19

Wouldn't that essentially stop the UK from doing a trade deal with the US? I thought that EU food standards would be the first thing up for negotiation in any such deal?