Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Zubeneschamali

20silkcut wrote: »

And they are the 5th largest economy in the world as members of the EU.

They were 5th, I think they are 6th since the referendum, India passed them.


And France are close behind. If they crash out and Sterling tanks vs. Euro, France will pass them and they'll be 7th.

Infini

Shelga wrote: »

Leavers have really screwed over Scotland too, no matter what way you look at it.

If they stay as part of the UK, they are at the mercy of the Tories who could not care less about them. If they vote for independence now, the border with England becomes much more complicated in the case of a hard Brexit, than if England was also in the EU.

Despite that, if I was Scottish, I would vote for independence now, 100%.

To be fair the 1st indy ref was defeated in part BECAUSE of EU membership being an issue. It's pretty certain that a 2nd ref would likely pass a 2nd time around because it would entail both becoming independent and regain EU membership taken BY English politics. It's also likely within 2 years as well the union won't hold under the pressures of a Hard Brexit the opposing internal forces would cause it to break apart.

trashcan wrote: »

I honestly doubt it. I don t think they are bluffing. They'd like the UK to stay, or failing that to agree a deal, but I don't think they want it at any cost.

They were willing to cut Greece loose remember at the worst of it till they finally backed down and ended up with a worse deal in the end than if they'd agreed. The EU doesn't bluff, they'll cut the UK loose in order to maintain the integrity of the EU institutions which are far more important than a dysfunctional former member state that refuses all reason. The irony of course is completely lost on the UK they'll likely be in a worse position later because the exact same issue's they rejected wont go away they'll still be there only with penalties and interest for the damage the tories have caused.

ShooterSF

For all the talk of compromise May is still only looking for a short extension which has to mean she's hoping she can pass her deal. Which means I'm guessing whatever she offers JC it'll be after that has passed and the transition period has begun. Or maybe pass the deal and we'll have a GE?

MikeSoys

Infini wrote: »

Shift to Amazon.de if needs be. Dunno what will happen in a no deal maybe they'll finally make an Amazon.ie for us....

I used Amazon.de all the time ...stuff always goes through UK before getting here...so it will need to be flown from mainland eu to here...if so that will be more expensive

10000maniacs

Jeremy Corbyn is in a very interesting position now. The fate of the Tory party lies in his hands by negotiating a soft Brexit with May which will literally split the Tories down the middle. She has herself given up on her cabinet and party and just wants rid of Brexit and her job.
But what will probably happen at the meeting is she will have a hissy fit with Corbyn and go back to her red lines, the Commons will vote to leave and hard Brexit looms.

Spanish Eyes

I wonder who would trust them to honour any agreement now.

Agreements and deals could be tactical, and changed at a moments notice really.

Unless someone knows what sanctions could apply for going rogue.

Anteayer

Bear in mind that this could go horribly wrong. British politics is extremely tribal. I'm not sure that a Government of national unity is very likely to work.

Shelga

Anteayer wrote: »

Bear in mind that this could go horribly wrong. British politics is extremely tribal. I'm not sure that a Government of national unity is very likely to work.

I don’t think anyone’s very hopeful. Corbyn and May in a room together, trying to agree on something? I could see it disintegrating in a day or two, just like the last time she tried to ‘reach out’.

Strazdas

Anteayer wrote: »

Bear in mind that this could go horribly wrong. British politics is extremely tribal. I'm not sure that a Government of national unity is very likely to work.

Given the divisions in British society and the open animosity between May and Corbyn, it's hard to see where this is heading.....the two of them seem to utterly despise each other.

L1011

MikeSoys wrote: »

I used Amazon.de all the time ...stuff always goes through UK before getting here...so it will need to be flown from mainland eu to here...if so that will be more expensive

That's their couriers choice and will be changed rapidly if it becomes a problem to them. Also, if its air freight it should be transferred airside without ever passing customs, and the operating carrier is likely to have the right nationality (or flexibility with multiple AOCs) to avoid any issues. The package integrators (UPS, TNT, DHL, Fedex) have fleets of aircraft they own or permanently lease and can reassign as needed.

The reverse happens also - I had to get an express document from Newcastle (Tyneside) to Dublin yesterday - it went via Cologne Airport!

Hurrache

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Anything emanating from DUP quarters yet?



*No rude answers please.

Here it is, they still haven't discovered irony.
https://twitter.com/duponline/status/1113185824856780800?s=19

maebee

Hurrache wrote: »

Here it is, they still haven't discovered irony.
https://twitter.com/duponline/status/1113185824856780800?s=19

Ulster says NO. Well, there's a surprise. That bus is coming at them.

Nigel Dodds completely undermined the position of the DUP on Brexit, since he said the status of the Union is more important. Following on from this, anything they say about Brexit can't be considered a fixed view since they've placed the importance of the Union above it. If the UK remains as one in their eyes they will support the outcome, be it leave or remain, that ensures this.

ThePanjandrum

20silkcut wrote: »

And they are the 5th largest economy in the world as members of the EU.

Which they weren’t when they joined in 1973.

That's true. The UK was the 6th largest economy in the world when it joined the EEC.

1. USA
2. Japan
3. West Germany
4. USSR
5. France
6. UK

Now it's the 5th

1. USA
2. China
3. Japan
4. Germany
5. UK

So the European project has been so effective that the UK has increased its world rankings one place, by going above another member of the EU. That's because of its trade outside the EU, the effect of joining the EEC is that the UK's exports to the EEC fell and its imports increased.

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

Nigel Dodds completely undermined the position of the DUP on Brexit, since he said the status of the Union is more important. Following on from this, anything they say about Brexit can't be considered a fixed view since they've placed the importance of the Union above it. If the UK remains as one in their eyes they will support the outcome, be it leave or remain, that ensures this.

This may have been in response to Rees-Mogg, Raab and others voting for the backstop last Friday. They may have seen it as being stabbed in the back.

WhiteMan32

Might Corbyn be persuaded to follow May's lead and announce that he too will step down as leader of the Labour party..... after both he & TM reach an agreement which is later voted in favour of by a majority of Westminster MPs and/or the public in a second ref.?

BonnieSituation

Absolutely not. If you think May is limpet-like, wait til Corbyn smells the prospect of Downing Street.

MadYaker

It's just a ploy so she can blame a no deal brexit on the labour party. When you realise that she values the survival of the tory party above all else then her moves start to make a bit more sense.

Zubeneschamali

MadYaker wrote: »

When you realise that she values the survival of the tory party above all else then her moves start to make a bit more sense.

Well, no, she has said she would prefer a No Deal Brexit to Remain. This is music to the ears of Tory party members, who are mostly pensioners pretending they fought in WW2 before they were born, but an actual No Deal Brexit will cost every single voter in the UK thousands of pounds for absolutely zero return.


Unless she can rub some Brexit onto Labour, the Tories are looking at no election wins until perhaps 2030, and they could be replaced as the party of monocle-wearing ordinary public school England by who knows, Sinn Fein by then.

Peregrinus

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

That's true. The UK was the 6th largest economy in the world when it joined the EEC.

1. USA
2. Japan
3. West Germany
4. USSR
5. France
6. UK

Now it's the 5th

1. USA
2. China
3. Japan
4. Germany
5. UK

So the European project has been so effective that the UK has increased its world rankings one place, by going above another member of the EU. That's because of its trade outside the EU, the effect of joining the EEC is that the UK's exports to the EEC fell and its imports increased.

Well, it's not as simple as that.

The UK declined steadily in the rankings before joining the EU - it was 4th (after US, USSR, W Germany) in 1960; 5th in 1965 (overtaken by France); 6th in 1970 (overtaken by Japan). It remained in sixth place throught the 70s and 80s. falling to 7th in 1990 (overtaken by Italy).

Then the rise began. By 1995 they were back to 5th place (overtook Italy, Soviet Union knocked out of the running by Events), and by 2005 they were in 4th place (overtook France). By 2010 they were back to 6th place (impact of GFC, overtaken by France and China), before clawing their way back to 5th (overtaking France) just before the Brexit referendum.

So, bit of a mixed bag. But if there's one event which is associated with a marked improvement in the UK's rankings, it's not joining the EEC in 1973; it's the completion of the Single Market in 1993, which led to a steady improvement that continued until the GFC.

These rankings are good for headlines, but they are of course hugely affected by exchange rate movements. In particular the sequence of UK and France regularly leapfrogging one another probably tells you more about EUR:GBP exchange rate movements than it does about the economic productivity of the two countries. There's an alternative measure which seeks to rank countries by GDP based on purchasing power parity; I don't claim to understand the technicalities, but this measure aims to correct for the effect of exchange rate movements, and so show a truer picture of relative economic improvement.

Awkwardly, by this measure, the UK ranks only 9th, down from 8th in 1980 due to the rise of India. Happily, though, it's still ahead of France (10th), whcih will please the headline-writers in certain papers.

Enzokk

As with anything from a politician you judge their actions and not their words. So when May said she wants to fight injustice during her first speech and you see her actions in the Home Office and since she has been PM, you know she was talking poppycock. Ask the Windrush Generation about injustice and ask them if it has changed at all.

So I will only believe she means to compromise when I see it. I find it hard to think that she will compromise now, at the 11th hour, when she has talked down to Labour and tried to bribe MPs to vote for her deal. She has said her deal is the only deal they will have and since then she has done nothing to get a new deal or change her deal. She has had meetings before with the other leaders and the word from those meetings were that there was no give from her side.

What she has done time and again is put her party ahead of the country and she has cowed to their demands to keep them from splitting. I think the resignation of Nick Boles will have hurt her as it was so public and it cut her slim majority by one more where she is even more in need of the DUP than before. This would have forced her to look for other ways to try and shift her deal through and not have her party split. It is amazing that the hard Brexiteers in the cabinet has not yet resigned when 14 of them wants a no-deal. Either they realised that leaving without a deal is political and economic suicide or they know that having it all fall apart without a fall guy will split their party.

So why would she change now? All I see and hear is that Star Wars meme, "IT'S A TRAP!".

Spook_ie

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

That's true. The UK was the 6th largest economy in the world when it joined the EEC.

1. USA
2. Japan
3. West Germany
4. USSR
5. France
6. UK

Now it's the 5th

1. USA
2. China
3. Japan
4. Germany
5. UK

So the European project has been so effective that the UK has increased its world rankings one place, by going above another member of the EU. That's because of its trade outside the EU, the effect of joining the EEC is that the UK's exports to the EEC fell and its imports increased.

You don't think going up one place might be the demise of the USSR in 1991?

Panrich

Spook_ie wrote: »

You don't think going up one place might be the demise of the USSR in 1991?

That’s balanced by the rise of China. They’ve still overtaken France.

Mr.Wemmick

Enzokk wrote: »

As with anything from a politician you judge their actions and not their words. So when May said she wants to fight injustice during her first speech and you see her actions in the Home Office and since she has been PM, you know she was talking poppycock. Ask the Windrush Generation about injustice and ask them if it has changed at all.

So why would she change now? All I see and hear is that Star Wars meme, "IT'S A TRAP!".

They have no clue how to have a straightforward honest conversation with each other, nevermind with the public. And, on an issue so important it will change everything in the UK forever, you would think she would have the intelligence to know better. I actually think she is emotionally thick in the extreme.. and Corbyn's not far behind her.

May did similar when she took office, talking up the JAMs, how she had their back, knows how difficult it's been, then walked into No. 10 and simply continued to screw them with Osborne austerity policies. I lost all respect for her then and only saw a glimmer of hope when she lost the majority at the snap election. But now, it makes no difference, the damage she has done here and continues to do is frightening.

I can't shake the image of the tory party standing on an island huddled together safe while the country burns around them and Ireland's struggles to beat back the flames.

Itssoeasy

Just before the 8am news on bbc five live a caller from NI made some very sensible points to a Tory MP from Dover who used project fear and the usual buzz words and the caller sounded more logical than the MP.

Mr.Wemmick

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Just before the 8am news on bbc five live a caller from NI made some very sensible points to a Tory MP from Dover who used project fear and the usual buzz words and the caller sounded more logical than the MP.

This is why many MPs do not want to have a 2nd Ref. - the public would turn Brexit on its head.

Enzokk

It is always interesting to see the what is being said in the mornings. JRM is making a fool of himself by failing to backtrack on the tweet where he mentioned the AfD in a positive way. He backtracked a little by saying he agrees with the opinion they have on the EU but not their policies but this morning he seems to not have expanded on this and cannot name any policies he disagrees with from the far right party.

https://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/status/1113345724262047744

On May's plan, I think we are going to be talking about the trap for a while as it plays out.

https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1113339530772348928

Steve Barclay was on radio this morning and said they want to test whether Corbyn actually wants to leave the EU and that a second referendum as a condition would be very difficult. The comment is that it sounds like a red line.

spacecoyote

Peregrinus wrote: »

Well, it's not as simple as that.

The UK declined steadily in the rankings before joining the EU - it was 4th (after US, USSR, W Germany) in 1960; 5th in 1965 (overtaken by France); 6th in 1970 (overtaken by Japan). It remained in sixth place throught the 70s and 80s. falling to 7th in 1990 (overtaken by Italy).

Then the rise began. By 1995 they were back to 5th place (overtook Italy, Soviet Union knocked out of the running by Events), and by 2005 they were in 4th place (overtook France). By 2010 they were back to 6th place (impact of GFC, overtaken by France and China), before clawing their way back to 5th (overtaking France) just before the Brexit referendum.

So, bit of a mixed bag. But if there's one event which is associated with a marked improvement in the UK's rankings, it's not joining the EEC in 1973; it's the completion of the Single Market in 1993, which led to a steady improvement that continued until the GFC.

These rankings are good for headlines, but they are of course hugely affected by exchange rate movements. In particular the sequence of UK and France regularly leapfrogging one another probably tells you more about EUR:GBP exchange rate movements than it does about the economic productivity of the two countries. There's an alternative measure which seeks to rank countries by GDP based on purchasing power parity; I don't claim to understand the technicalities, but this measure aims to correct for the effect of exchange rate movements, and so show a truer picture of relative economic improvement.

Awkwardly, by this measure, the UK ranks only 9th, down from 8th in 1980 due to the rise of India. Happily, though, it's still ahead of France (10th), whcih will please the headline-writers in certain papers.

I think I also read that their GDP per head actually pushes them down to around 23rd or so.

So you can work the stats to give whatever value suits the argument really

Water John

Seems to be a common Tory theme, thinking every one else is not as clever and we can't figure out what they might be up to. Also that we haven't ears and can actually hear what they are saying.
They should know by now how they have tried that for 3 years with the EU, who have always been a number of steps ahead of them. They'll be foolish to think that LB won't suss them out as well.

Stacksofwacks

Honest question, why the hell didnt the UK decide what kind of Brexit they wanted BEFORE triggering article 50? Instead of negotiating a deal no one wanted, they could have held votes in parliment to find out what the majority was for(if any) now we're left in a right mess with no plan b or c and no one seems to know what they are doing. Its incompetence to an almost criminal level