Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Beechwoodspark

Stacksofwacks wrote: »

Honest question, why the hell didnt the UK decide what kind of Brexit they wanted BEFORE triggering article 50? Instead of negotiating a deal no one wanted, they could have held votes in parliment to find out what the majority was for(if any) now we're left in a right mess with no plan b or c and no one seems to know what they are doing. Its incompetence to an almost criminal level

Fully agree. May has to take a lot of blame for this. After she got the big job she went for a hard Brexit with her famous red lines and drove the bus ever since. Triggered art 50 before any sort of consensus was achieved. The seeds for the present chaos were sown then.

Stacksofwacks

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Fully agree. May has to take a lot of blame for this. After she got the big job she went for a hard Brexit with her famous red lines and drove the bus ever since. Triggered art 50 before any sort of consensus was achieved. The seeds for the present chaos were sown then.

She seems to have thought that she had a mandate to deliver her version of brexit, without consulting anyone else

Shelga

Stacksofwacks wrote: »

Honest question, why the hell didnt the UK decide what kind of Brexit they wanted BEFORE triggering article 50? Instead of negotiating a deal no one wanted, they could have held votes in parliment to find out what the majority was for(if any) now we're left in a right mess with no plan b or c and no one seems to know what they are doing. Its incompetence to an almost criminal level

It’s unbelievable what a shambles it is, and how little is decided, 5 days after the original leave date!

The only minor defence I can think of is I remember the opinion of the time being that the EU would not contemplate any talks until they had triggered article 50. Which is fair enough.

However, there was nothing to stop cross-party talks happening before they did this. What was the rush? I think every one of the 500-odd MPs who voted to trigger article 50 must now hold their hands up and admit their culpability in this mess. Although didn’t Corbyn whip his Labour MPs to vote for the motion?

Anyway, we are where we are.

Stacksofwacks

Shelga wrote: »

It’s unbelievable what a shambles it is, and how little is decided, 5 days after the original leave date!

The only minor defence I can think of is I remember the opinion of the time being that the EU would not contemplate any talks until they had triggered article 50. Which is fair enough.

However, there was nothing to stop cross-party talks happening before they did this. What was the rush? I think every one of the 500-odd MPs who voted to trigger article 50 must now hold their hands up and admit their culpability in this mess. Although didn’t Corbyn whip his Labour MPs to vote for the motion?

Anyway, we are where we are.

Now we have to go back to 2009 people losing their jobs, people emigrating, people losing their homes over this crock of ****...The UK is a big economy and could probably withstand it and come out the other side eventually, but do the ends justify the means? I dont think so

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/nadams/status/1113359638769164289



A trickle or a flow this time ?

Peregrinus

Stacksofwacks wrote: »

Honest question, why the hell didnt the UK decide what kind of Brexit they wanted BEFORE triggering article 50? Instead of negotiating a deal no one wanted, they could have held votes in parliment to find out what the majority was for(if any) now we're left in a right mess with no plan b or c and no one seems to know what they are doing. Its incompetence to an almost criminal level

With hindsight - and, actually, even with foresight - this is what they should have done, but it wouldn't necessarily have worked out any better.

The harsh facts are:

- there's only a bare majority of support from Brexit in the UK; and

- among Brexiters, there is no agreement on what the point of Brexit is, why it's a good idea, what it should acheive, etc, etc.

Any deliverable Brexit involves tough choices; you have to decide what you will prioritise and what you will let go of. This isn't the result of the EU bullying, or of the EU being tough negotiators, or of the UK's strategic weakness, or anything like that; it's inherent in the nature of Brexit. Even if on balance you think EU membership is a bad thing, it undoubtedly has some advantage for the UK. There is no possible Brexit which gives the UK all the benefits and none of the burdens of EU membership, so in any Brexit you have to trade off the rewards you seek, and the prices you will pay - hence the touch choices. And if Brexiters dont' agree on what the point of Brexit is, what is supposed to acheive, then differetn Brexiters will make different choices in this regard.

Which means, as soon as you start making the choices you need to make to turn an aspiration for Brexit into a deliverable form of Brexit, support starts to peel off. By compromising on X, you lose the Brexiters for whom X is the whole point of Brexit. There is no "X" for which this is not true. And since you started out with only a bare majority for Brexit, you pretty quicklly get to apoint where you have lost that majority.

The Commons trying to negotiate its way towards a deliverable Brexit would have found this problem, just as Teresa May found it. And, given the adversarial nature of parlaimentary proceedings in the UK, I think it would have been just as hard for them to solve as it was for her

Of course, hightlighting this problem at an earlier stage would have given them more time to address it, and might perhaps have prevented them from making a number of mistakes that May made which have compounded the problem - like the contradictory red lines.

Professor Moriarty

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/nadams/status/1113359638769164289



A trickle or a flow this time ?

My guess is a trickle until she agrees a custom union. Then there'll be a flurry of resignations full of 'righteous indignation'.

Stacksofwacks

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/nadams/status/1113359638769164289



A trickle or a flow this time ?

Good news or bad news?

joe40

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Fully agree. May has to take a lot of blame for this. After she got the big job she went for a hard Brexit with her famous red lines and drove the bus ever since. Triggered art 50 before any sort of consensus was achieved. The seeds for the present chaos were sown then.

I fully agree that May bears massive responsibility for this mess due to insistence on "red lines" at an early stage in the process.

However I don't think it would have been possible to get consensus in the HoC at any stage because too many people held the view that the EU would cave in to pressure therefore there was no requirement to pursue soft Brexit in some minds. EU would simply accept the British position eventually.

It was Jan/Feb before the penny dropped for many that the EU would support the GFA and not simply give in. For some (insert DUP) that penny is still suspended somewhere.

LeinsterDub

Stacksofwacks wrote: »

Good news or bad news?

At this stage it's like everything in brexit . It's just news . Events are moving so quickly and unpredictably that no one has time to take stock.

Stacksofwacks

LeinsterDub wrote: »

At this stage it's like everything in brexit . It's just news . Events are moving so quickly and unpredictably that no one has time to take stock.

Its going to end up no deal isnt it.. You cant have this amount of chaos and dysfunction within an organisation and expect it to end well

Peregrinus

Stacksofwacks wrote: »

Its going to end up no deal isnt it.. You cant have this amount of chaos and dysfunction within an organisation and expect it to end well

From here, all possible endings are bad. No matter how this ends up, we will be able to say that it didn't end well.

Professor Moriarty

Stacksofwacks wrote: »

Its going to end up no deal isnt it.. You cant have this amount of chaos and dysfunction within an organisation and expect it to end well

I doubt it unless something bizarre happens. The May/Corbyn talks will end in failure but there's a way forward with binding indicative votes. The only possible fly in the ointment is the demands that the EU attaches to an extension.

Akrasia

joe40 wrote: »

I fully agree that May bears massive responsibility for this mess due to insistence on "red lines" at an early stage in the process.

However I don't think it would have been possible to get consensus in the HoC at any stage because too many people held the view that the EU would cave in to pressure therefore there was no requirement to pursue soft Brexit in some minds. EU would simply accept the British position eventually.

It was Jan/Feb before the penny dropped for many that the EU would support the GFA and not simply give in. For some (insert DUP) that penny is still suspended somewhere.

She could get consensus right now, today, if she brought a motion calling for her MV3 on the condition that there was a legally binding confirmatory referendum with the option to remain. Both Labour and the Tories would whip for it, as would the SNP and the Lib Dems, and the 'Leave.UK' party which would more than cancel out the number of rebels in the Tory and Labour parties

She just doesn't want to because it would cost her party votes in the next election.

Crashing out of the EU could cost them a hell of a lot more once the grim reality sets in, but hey ho, logic doesn't always win out

jester77

I wonder if May is playing the long game here, the only way out is to ask for an extension and hope that calling a general election will be enough to convince the EU to grant it. Her offer to Labour is just a rouse to set the people against them before calling it. It's hard to envisage them coming to a consensus that won't tear her party apart.

Leroy42

So, for all the talk of the EU blinking and giving in at the 11th hour (throwing Ireland under the bus, allowing the UK whatever they wanted) it appears very much that the UK have blinked, and blinked hard.

It has to be understood just what a monumental course of action TM is taking. Whilst in the EU and lately in Ireland, compromise and discussion across parties is normal, it is almost unheard of in the UK. The fact that it is Corbyn, seen by many as the worst type of Labour leader, makes it even more staggering.
For all her talk of 22nd, in reality the EU don't have much choice her. They cannot let it get to the 22 May and then see the UK revoke A50 or ask for a longer extension. So the need now is to try to force the UK into making a decision. They have until 9th April, emergency summit being on 10th, at which the EU wil want to know a few things.

Is no deal fully off the table? IF yes then are they fully accepting the WA? If no then they need to prepare for EU elections.

In relation to Tm announcement, I actually think it might be quite clever. Create the very real possibility of Corbyn taking control and then rerun the MV to force the ERG etc to support it. Won't be this week, she needs to meet with JC first and give the impression that things are moving.

So she gets her deal, gets her party to get a unified position and leave Corbyn looking like a spare tool.

ToBeFrank123

Shelga wrote: »

Looking at Newsnight, where guess who is on- "Michael Gove, Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs".

We are facing climate change disaster, beyond the point of no return in 12 years, and when was the last time this clown actually focused on his ministerial job, talked about anything other than ****ing Brexit, which he and his slimy fellow conmen Tories directly caused.

I am so, so sick of hearing about Brexit, with all of the other incredibly urgent problems that the world faces. This disgrace of a Tory government is indulging their egos about this for the last 3 years, rather than focus on the good of the country.

History will judge Gove and his kind incredibly harshly. Hopefully he ends up with a heavy prison sentence too one day, for his role in the illegal behaviour of the Vote Leave campaign.

Most people are sick of Brexit.

But I think a small number of people such as the ERG and DUP are loving this long running saga.

This is their moment in the sun. Once Brexit is completed, the ERG are out of business, nothing left to "research" or whinge about. And likely without any policies either. They are enjoying the limelight and the fame.

Stacksofwacks

ERG could also go to Corbyn and help bring down the government. They hold the balance of power essentially

seamus

Corbyn comes across a bit like a wilting geography teacher; inoffensive and without backbone. But I don't think he's naive enough to accept TM at face value. She has proven enough times that her promises are worthless. I wouldn't be surprised if Corbyn very immediately attempts to lock her into an agreement that she can't about-face on, and she storms out claiming that Labour are unwilling to compromise.

ancapailldorcha

seamus wrote: »

Corbyn comes across a bit like a wilting geography teacher; inoffensive and without backbone. But I don't think he's naive enough to accept TM at face value. She has proven enough times that her promises are worthless. I wouldn't be surprised if Corbyn very immediately attempts to lock her into an agreement that she can't about-face on, and she storms out claiming that Labour are unwilling to compromise.

Probably too much to hope for but I'd hope Momentum might lean on him to include a People's Vote amendment to the WA.

I don't understand how the likes of Len McCluskey can live with themselves knowing what Brexit will do to the working classes.

robinph

Leroy42 wrote: »

In relation to Tm announcement, I actually think it might be quite clever. Create the very real possibility of Corbyn taking control and then rerun the MV to force the ERG etc to support it. Won't be this week, she needs to meet with JC first and give the impression that things are moving.

So she gets her deal, gets her party to get a unified position and leave Corbyn looking like a spare tool.

It's so obvious a trap that Admiral Akbar would have actually said something long enough in advance to give people a useful warning.

She'll outmanoeuvre Corbyn no problem, even with her incredible incapability to negotiate anything. Only chance for Corbyn to not lose here is if his only offer is the suggestion of putting it to a second referendum and then giving the support for MV4. Then the blame is rightly back on May whatever way things go. If Corbyn asks for anything else then he loses, Labour loses, everyone loses and we get Boris as PM for the next three years at least.

FrancieBrady

Leroy42 wrote: »

So, for all the talk of the EU blinking and giving in at the 11th hour (throwing Ireland under the bus, allowing the UK whatever they wanted) it appears very much that the UK have blinked, and blinked hard.

It has to be understood just what a monumental course of action TM is taking. Whilst in the EU and lately in Ireland, compromise and discussion across parties is normal, it is almost unheard of in the UK. The fact that it is Corbyn, seen by many as the worst type of Labour leader, makes it even more staggering.
For all her talk of 22nd, in reality the EU don't have much choice her. They cannot let it get to the 22 May and then see the UK revoke A50 or ask for a longer extension. So the need now is to try to force the UK into making a decision. They have until 9th April, emergency summit being on 10th, at which the EU wil want to know a few things.

Is no deal fully off the table? IF yes then are they fully accepting the WA? If no then they need to prepare for EU elections.

In relation to Tm announcement, I actually think it might be quite clever. Create the very real possibility of Corbyn taking control and then rerun the MV to force the ERG etc to support it. Won't be this week, she needs to meet with JC first and give the impression that things are moving.

So she gets her deal, gets her party to get a unified position and leave Corbyn looking like a spare tool.

It would be a stretch to propose that Corbyn and the Labour party don't get what is going on.
He will play along but ultimately I cannot see anything coming from it. The various leopards have not changed spots suddenly.

Leroy42

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It would be a stretch to propose that Corbyn and the Labour party don't get what is going on.
He will play along but ultimately I cannot see anything coming from it. The various leopards have not changed spots suddenly.

It is not a question of Labour knowing what is going on. TM said that if they failed to agree a way forward the HoC would revert to indicative votes.

She only has to play along with Corbyn for a day or two, then come out to say that Labour what a 2nd Ref of CU or whatever and put forward a MV3. The hope would be that enough ERG and DUP are so scared that they support her.

farmchoice

id say her suggestion for a short extension will fall on deaf ears in Brussels. once again the whole thing has a the look of a pretty shoddy attempt at a 3 card trick.
id say the eu will tell her she can have a long extension with eu elections. in the unlikely event the uk get the whole thing sorted by the 22nd of may then perhaps they need not send the MEP's to Brussels, but they will have to go ahead with the elections on the assumption it wont be sorted and then take at least a one year extension if not longer.

Seth Brundle

MoD confirms some of it's staff don't favour Corbyn...
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/unacceptable-video-shows-british-soldiers-shooting-corbyn-target-1.3848028

Enzokk

farmchoice wrote: »

id say her suggestion for a short extension will fall on deaf ears in Brussels. once again the whole thing has a the look of a pretty shoddy attempt at a 3 card trick.
id say the eu will tell her she can have a long extension with eu elections. in the unlikely event the uk get the whole thing sorted by the 22nd of may then perhaps they need not send the MEP's to Brussels, but they will have to go ahead with the elections on the assumption it wont be sorted and then take at least a one year extension if not longer.

She may get a fast one past the Labour party, but even I think that is not going to happen but I doubt she will get it past the EU. They will see the fact that she wants an extension to the 22nd May as a way to not ask for a longer extension and having to participate in the EU elections. That way her deal is against an extra hard cliff and it would probably be passed by desperate politicians.

I am cynical so I see this only as a way again to get her deal passed and to do it without blowing up the Conservatives. We know you will see mass resignations if she goes for a soft Brexit or a hard Brexit, but if she is able to get her deal through, which looks soft or hard depending which way you squint, she has delivered Brexit and she was not in charge for the break up of her party.

What happens after she leaves is not her concern then. If BJ takes over and goes for a hard trade agreement with checks it is not her fault. At the same time if Hammond takes over and goes for a close relationship and the party splinters, then once again she is not responsible.

Christy42

Leroy42 wrote: »

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It would be a stretch to propose that Corbyn and the Labour party don't get what is going on.
He will play along but ultimately I cannot see anything coming from it. The various leopards have not changed spots suddenly.

It is not a question of Labour knowing what is going on. TM said that if they failed to agree a way forward the HoC would revert to indicative votes.

She only has to play along with Corbyn for a day or two, then come out to say that Labour what a 2nd Ref of CU or whatever and put forward a MV3. The hope would be that enough ERG and DUP are so scared that they support her.

MV4 at this point no?

Laois_Man

robinph wrote: »

She'll outmanoeuvre Corbyn no problem

Is there a single example of Theresa May outmaneuvering anyone, ever?

She has been embarrassment after embarrassment after embarrassment since becoming PM

Leroy42

Christy42 wrote: »

MV4 at this point no?

The last one wasn't technically the same as the others so MV2.5 or some such nonsense.

But yeah, MV4 or whatever. The word 'meaningful' is the real problem!

Enzokk

Seth Brundle wrote: »

MoD confirms some of it's staff don't favour Corbyn...
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/unacceptable-video-shows-british-soldiers-shooting-corbyn-target-1.3848028

I am concerned about the UK. I read this story about a plot to kill another MP,

The neo-Nazi paedophile who plotted to kill

Now there isn't a big Brexit angle in the story but the fact that there was a plot to kill another politician and now we have the military shooting at pictures of the leader of the opposition. What is happening? If Corbyn takes over and some in the military doesn't agree with his leadership, that is a potential coup.