Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

ShooterSF

pdev wrote: »

The longer this debacle continues the greater the chance of a second referendum in my opinion.

May has said she will seek a short extension till the end of May (the month, not her but could be both...) and I have doubts she gets it. If she's being genuine about compromise JC has said he wants a CU and protection of workers rights so maybe she'll promise that if the WA passes. What would be the brexiest thing to happen next given the past few years is a vote on the above where the hard brexit side of the Torys vote against and the hard remain side of labour do the same and the two leaders joint deal loses...

Water John

You cannot assume the SNP will vote against. They moved a lot and supported the WA + CU + SM in the indicative votes. They have been the most responsible and disciplined group of MPs in the HOC.

MadYaker

This move to talk with Corbyn has obviously enraged the right wing of her party. I wonder if Corbyn and May can't agree on anything could we see the ERG and Labour coming together to bring the government and trigger an election?

Professor Moriarty

Dubh Geannain wrote: »

What are the numbers looking like if Corbyn and May reach an agreement. Obviously we don't know if they'll reach an agreement on anything yet.

For a start I assume the SNP and Lib Dems will vote No because they are opposed to Brexit in any form and can't be seen to facilitate it.
DUP will vote No because the WA is still in play although the backstop may not be needed at all if Common Travel, customs union etc. are penciled back in.
Labour defectors that were voting for May's deal initially. Would they prefer a crash out to the a watered down WA?
ERG would rather a crash out too. Those that May had won over initially in the Tories may swing back to a crash out preference as they want fewer ties not more.

Is it too early to be speculating like this?

I think May and Corbyn won't come to an agreement. It will come down to binding indicative votes. No Deal and Remain won't fly. So, it will be the WA, CU or Norway +. The Lib Dems, Tigs and SNP will then have a choice to make and I think they will be king makers. May will try to predict which way the wind will blow and opt for a referendum on the top two if her WA is losing. So my prediction for an outcome is a referendum between the WA and Norway + with Norway + winning. This politics predicting is very easy stuff.

ShooterSF

MadYaker wrote: »

This move to talk with Corbyn has obviously enraged the right wing of her party. I wonder if Corbyn and May can't agree on anything could we see the ERG and Labour coming together to bring the government and trigger an election?

Can see the ERG for this but not labour. Taking the govt down now is a no deal brexit. There'd be no one to go to the EU to seek an extension

Water John

Word is the Govn't may adopt the Cooper Bill!!!

Boulevardier

If May agrees to a referendum which included remain as an option then that will be catastrophic for her, for Brexit and for the Tory party. A general election makes much more sense anyway.

Call me Al

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

Well, to be fair, the last scandal of substandard meat within the EU was in Ireland and Spain was it not? 2013/14, if I remember correctly.

There are honest, high standard farmers and meat producers in every country, UK included, and I do not think we should lose the run of ourselves and think all UK meat will be bad.

I agree there are.
I wonder how long those farmers in the UK will survive in business maintaining these high standards, without an EU market to sell them in to, when they have to compete with any old rubbish coming across a WTO or unmonitored border.

Re substandard meat, are you talking about the horsemeat scandal? Where Irish scientists detected DNA of other animals in packaged meat? Thus not conforming to EU standards.
Or is there something else...

Sam Russell

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

Well, to be fair, the last scandal of substandard meat within the EU was in Ireland and Spain was it not? 2013/14, if I remember correctly.

There are honest, high standard farmers and meat producers in every country, UK included, and I do not think we should lose the run of ourselves and think all UK meat will be bad.

Well, no. The last scandal was in Poland in Jan 2019, where sick cows were dragged into an abattoir because they were too sick to walk. 11 EU countries were affected.

Story here.

Thomas_IV

Brexiteers getting more aggressive.

One is rather used to the usual insults and threats from Bexiteers towards anti-Brexit activists. In this article from yesterday, there is a new development which makes their actions even more dangerous. The perpetrators aimed at derailing a train in England by putting devices on the rails.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-47790939

'Pro-Brexit' sabotage devices left on train tracks

Two "malicious" devices were left on railway tracks in a pro-Brexit sabotage attempt, police have said.

The items were left on lines near Netherfield, Nottinghamshire, and Yaxley, Cambridgeshire, in March.

One had a note saying "leave means leave", with another saying it would "bring Britain to a standstill".

Assistant Chief Constable Sean O'Callaghan, from British Transport Police (BTP), said the devices were "intended only to delay services".

"This was a serious and deliberate attempt by someone to cause significant sabotage and disruption to Britain's rail network," he said.


"We're currently keeping an open mind on why someone would put their life at risk to place these items on a live railway, however our early assessment has led us to believe it relates to Britain's exit from the European Union."

BBC home affairs correspondent Danny Shaw said one of the devices was spotted by a train driver, with the other believed to have been found during a routine track search.

BTP said neither device succeeded in causing a delay to services, and that it was investigating along with the rail industry.

No arrests have been made in connection with the incidents.

The second note would rather point to a message being rather 'anti-Brexit' but one isn't used to such or any aggressive actions from the Remain camp.


In some way, this action fits in to what Brexit extremists like to do, like dishing out death threats to everybody who aims to twart Brexit from happening. Like in this recent case:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-47678275

'Cancel Brexit' petition woman receives death threats

The woman who started the record-breaking anti-Brexit petition says she is "shaking like a leaf" after receiving three death threats by phone.

Margaret Georgiadou, 77, began the Revoke Article 50 petition, which had topped four million signatures by Saturday morning.

She said she was "totally amazed" it had become the most popular petition submitted to the Parliament website.

But Mrs Georgiadou said the "horrible" phone calls left her scared and angry.

The retired lecturer says she has also received abuse via her Facebook account.

She said: "I feel terrible, I feel angry with myself because I thought I was tougher than that. But I was scared."

"I haven't even told my husband because he is very old and he would become hysterical."

Mrs Georgiadou said she created the petition to stop people "moaning" about how awful they thought Brexit was going to be.

…

To top it all Corbyn is now a 'Training Target' for some military personnel in the BA:

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-47801088/army-to-investigate-jeremy-corbyn-target-video

Seems to me that more and more people are out of their minds.

Strazdas

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

It appears May will make all preparations necessary for holding European elections, unless/until a departure before May 22nd becomes likely:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/apr/03/brexit-latest-news-live-may-corbyn-meeting-barclay-says-remorseless-logic-of-commons-numbers-is-pushing-uk-towards-softer-brexit-live-news?page=with:block-5ca49df28f08b611124af019#block-5ca49df28f08b611124af019

One wonders if she is bluffing when she says she won't hold them and secretly intends that they will indeed be held (but can't admit this to the hard Brexiteers yet).

Thomas_IV

Strazdas wrote: »

One wonders if she is bluffing when she says she won't hold them and secretly intends that they will indeed be held (but can't admit this to the hard Brexiteers yet).

One can't be sure what is valid and what isn't these days as 'prospects' and announcements change rapidly.

murphaph

L1011 wrote: »

It was first detected here, due to decent standards. The source was Romania in all cases I believe

Point of order (ahem), but the Romanian involvement was completely innocent IIRC. They correctly labelled everything as horse meat. The fraud was perpetuated after the meat left Romania.

Dont be at yourself

Guy Verhofstadt spelling out required next steps in no uncertain terms:

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1113435033832951808?s=21

josip

VonZan wrote: »

I think this is generally why some in the UK felt as if the EU would fold to their demands over access to the single market. The standards are supposed to be universal throughout the single market but the reality is that there is a lot more standards enforced in some countries than others, particularly Mediterranean and Eastern European EU members.

Do you have any examples of that VonZan? I'm aware that there's a lot more bureaucracy in some southern and eastern countries, but wasn't aware that this bureaucracy was related to additional standards.

Christy42

Thomas_IV wrote: »

Brexiteers getting more aggressive.

One is rather used to the usual insults and threats from Bexiteers towards anti-Brexit activists. In this article from yesterday, there is a new development which makes their actions even more dangerous. The perpetrators aimed at derailing a train in England by putting devices on the rails.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-47790939

'Pro-Brexit' sabotage devices left on train tracks

Two "malicious" devices were left on railway tracks in a pro-Brexit sabotage attempt, police have said.

The items were left on lines near Netherfield, Nottinghamshire, and Yaxley, Cambridgeshire, in March.

One had a note saying "leave means leave", with another saying it would "bring Britain to a standstill".

Assistant Chief Constable Sean O'Callaghan, from British Transport Police (BTP), said the devices were "intended only to delay services".

"This was a serious and deliberate attempt by someone to cause significant sabotage and disruption to Britain's rail network," he said.


"We're currently keeping an open mind on why someone would put their life at risk to place these items on a live railway, however our early assessment has led us to believe it relates to Britain's exit from the European Union."

BBC home affairs correspondent Danny Shaw said one of the devices was spotted by a train driver, with the other believed to have been found during a routine track search.

BTP said neither device succeeded in causing a delay to services, and that it was investigating along with the rail industry.

No arrests have been made in connection with the incidents.

The second note would rather point to a message being rather 'anti-Brexit' but one isn't used to such or any aggressive actions from the Remain camp.


In some way, this action fits in to what Brexit extremists like to do, like dishing out death threats to everybody who aims to twart Brexit from happening. Like in this recent case:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-47678275

'Cancel Brexit' petition woman receives death threats

The woman who started the record-breaking anti-Brexit petition says she is "shaking like a leaf" after receiving three death threats by phone.

Margaret Georgiadou, 77, began the Revoke Article 50 petition, which had topped four million signatures by Saturday morning.

She said she was "totally amazed" it had become the most popular petition submitted to the Parliament website.

But Mrs Georgiadou said the "horrible" phone calls left her scared and angry.

The retired lecturer says she has also received abuse via her Facebook account.

She said: "I feel terrible, I feel angry with myself because I thought I was tougher than that. But I was scared."

"I haven't even told my husband because he is very old and he would become hysterical."

Mrs Georgiadou said she created the petition to stop people "moaning" about how awful they thought Brexit was going to be.

…

To top it all Corbyn is now a 'Training Target' for some military personnel in the BA:

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-47801088/army-to-investigate-jeremy-corbyn-target-video

Seems to me that more and more people are out of their minds.

This is what happens when anyone who disagrees with your political opinion is branded a traitor. It removes all possibility of discourse and brings in the stuff like the MP assassination plot.

It needed to be stopped at source but JRM etc. were all happy to turn a blind eye yo such rhetoric when it suited them.

MrMusician18

Thomas_IV wrote: »

Brexiteers getting more aggressive.

One is rather used to the usual insults and threats from Bexiteers towards anti-Brexit activists. In this article from yesterday, there is a new development which makes their actions even more dangerous. The perpetrators aimed at derailing a train in England by putting devices on the rails.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-47790939



The second note would rather point to a message being rather 'anti-Brexit' but one isn't used to such or any aggressive actions from the Remain camp.

.

They didn't try to derail the train. They put a cable between the rails to trick the signalling system into thinking that there was a train in the block, essentially leaving the "traffic light" stuck on red. The protesters wanted to cause delays.

I believe that the line that this protest was attempted on uses an upgraded signalling system and detected the interference on the line with minimal disruption.

Hurrache

Look at this bull****.
https://twitter.com/DamianGreen/status/1113394935686946817

BonnieSituation

Can someone tell me what happened to Nicky Morgan? Has she gone full ******? (my censorship)

Tell me how

Hurrache wrote: »

Look at this bull****.

In laymans terms, 'that thing which we said would be so so easy to do, and yet we couldn't give any guidance whatsoever on how to do it at any point in the last 2.5 years, must be done by the PM starting within 24 hours after the WA is agreed.'

VinLieger

Hurrache wrote: »

Look at this bull****.
https://twitter.com/DamianGreen/status/1113394935686946817

Again with the unicorn of "alternative arrangements' I thought we had got past this fvckwittery

Hurrache

JRM just said on Sky News that the Irish Agricultural Industry is almost entirely dependent on trade with the UK.

cml387

[QUOTE=VinL

ieger;109842773]Again with the unicorn of "alternative arrangements' I thought we had got past this fvckwittery[/QUOTE]

It may be ridiculous. However as far as I know it's the only plan that got overall parliamentary backing.

BonnieSituation

Hurrache wrote: »

JRM just said on Sky News that the Irish Agricultural Industry is almost entirely dependent on trade with the UK.

He's gotten that the wrong way around, the UK is almost entirely dependent on the Irish Agricultural Industry.


(I know that may not be strictly true, but cmon... we feed 'em to a much greater degree than they know)

An Claidheamh

Few weeks ago Westminster speaker invoked a 17th century law, which delusional Brexiters blamed on the EU, for which they were rightly ridiculed.

Another poster : "Suggesting the EU have anything to do with a Parliamentary rule from the 17th century is not serious discussion"


An Claidheamh : "But sure that's what the EU want you to think..... "

When I made that comment above - I was being sarcastic i. e. pretending to be a paranoid Brexiter.

I've just finished a two week ban for that.

Anyway....

Akrasia

Hurrache wrote: »

Look at this bull****.
https://twitter.com/DamianGreen/status/1113394935686946817

That's shocking.

If such an amendment was to pass, it would make an absolute mockery of the negotiating process and it would utterly destroy the UK's reputation as a good faith actor in the international stage (whatever reputation is left)

It's sponsored by 56 MPs with 'cross party support' (Tories, Kate Hoey and the DUP)

It has practically zero chance of passing, but it's the kind of nutty half baked proposal that should be thrown out on first glance, not supported by 56 high profile MPs, mostly from the Governing party

MikeSoys

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Hurrache wrote: »

JRM just said on Sky News that the Irish Agricultural Industry is almost entirely dependent on trade with the UK.

He's gotten that the wrong way around, the UK is almost entirely dependent on the Irish Agricultural Industry.


(I know that may not be strictly true, but cmon... we feed 'em to a much greater degree than they know)

your correct but they will apply high tarrifs to protect uk fsrmers .. ie if a farmer here is able to get 3.75kg now.. if there is a no deal that will be something like 2.60kg.. which is really bad. but i heard the no tarrifs into n. ireland is a back door into uk for eire farmers (not sure if thats valid..though)

Akrasia

cml387 wrote: »

It may be ridiculous. However as far as I know it's the only plan that got overall parliamentary backing.

It was rejected by the EU within minutes of the vote passing.

It's an amendment telling the UK parliament to renege on an interntional agreement within 24 hours of signing it. It's almost the dictionary definition of bad faith dealing

MikeSoys

European commission president says 12 April ‘ultimate deadline’ for MPs to pass deal -guardian

An Claidheamh

The shocking disrespect aimed at Corbyn, considering he's doing them a favour- I don't mean disagreement with his politics or beliefs - but hatred directed at him from the British hard right - shows there are two Britain's batting it out.

Furthermore, this has appeared on the Internet.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2019/04/03/world/europe/uk-soldiers-jeremy-corbyn-shooting-range.amp.html

BBC were slow to report it.

British army spokesperson : "This behavior is totally unacceptable and falls well below the high standards the army expects"

British army standards.....


It's like Russia or some dictatorship where the army backs the far right politicians.