Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Anteayer

Does anyone have a link to the text of the Cooper Bill that just passed?

Loafing Oaf

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The 9 Labour who voted against the bill

Wow Dennis Skinner is still on the go!:eek: He must be round nearly as long as Ken Clarke.

So where are we at now with the 'process'? Waiting to see what comes out of the Corbyn-May pow-wow?

AllForIt

Prediction: All these further extensions will lead to nothing and I think no-deal is now inevitable. GE or not.

On the subject of the border, all I've heard is petty complaints about what a hard boarder means , concerns raised by ppl living close to the border because they have had the freedom to move between the two countries as they like for some time. This is a luxury that most countries in the world don't have. On one Prime Time report they had a person moan about mobile phone signals and rates. Like that's really serious? Quite frankly the situation in the border areas has always been too lax where ppl benefited off it unfairly in comparison to ppl who don't live anywhere near the boarder, which would be most of the ROI.

bob mcbob

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Nothing really has changed. May could ask the EU for a 1 ms extension which they could accept or reject and she'd have met the requirements of this bill.

I think it was any no deal. So even if TM gets only a one week extension then this law still applies at the next deadline.

Professor Moriarty

RickBlaine wrote: »

But it doesn't rule out no deal completely. The EU could refuse such a request.

Also, what's stopping May from asking for a 1 week extension and then crashing out at the end of that week.

Yes it's meaningless in reality. All it does is force May to ask for an extension. It just shows how powerless May is now. She's basically parliament's glove puppet.

RickBlaine

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

TM might be left to choose between 2 nuclear options on the eve of April 12th. Crash out or revoke article 50.

If it comes to that, I'd like to think she'll revoke article 50. I know she said she won't, but her word means nothing at this stage. But at least she seems to understand how damaging a crash out would be.

It mightn't come to that though. Surely if there is still nothing agreed by the 9th or 10th, could parliament vote to force her to revoke article 50?

Hurrache

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It rules out No Deal completely insofar as it forces May to ask for an extension. Prior to this, May could have let the clock run down to the 12th and crash out.

But does it? It's still the default if there's no agreement.

Professor Moriarty

Hurrache wrote: »

But does it? It's still the default if there's no agreement.

No, it forces May to ask for an extension no matter what so that she can't let the clock run down. That's my understanding anyway.

Zubeneschamali

AllForIt wrote: »

concerns raised by ppl living close to the border because they have had the freedom to move between the two countries as they like for some time. This is a luxury that most countries in the world don't have.

Many people living near the border do not think there are two countries, just Ireland divided at the point of a gun by the same people who brought you 800 years of oppression etc.

Meanwhile others who are very much in favour of the two countries idea still like the whole single market no customs checks thing, because dollars.

And yet another group who don't care one way or another about flags etc. like the No Border thing because no more Armalites.

ToBeFrank123

RickBlaine wrote: »

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

TM might be left to choose between 2 nuclear options on the eve of April 12th. Crash out or revoke article 50.

If it comes to that, I'd like to think she'll revoke article 50. I know she said she won't, but her word means nothing at this stage. But at least she seems to understand how damaging a crash out would be.

It mightn't come to that though. Surely if there is still nothing agreed by the 9th or 10th, could parliament vote to force her to revoke article 50?

At this stage revoking A50 would be the least worst option. All other avenues appear to have been exhausted. The Brexiteers couldn't organise a piss up in a brewary let alone a managed Brexit. They had their chance.

Zubeneschamali

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

The Brexiteers couldn't organise a piss up in a brewary let alone a managed Brexit. They had their chance.

Yes, you'd think they have been found out, and that the public would turn on them.


But no - while Remain has made some small gains in polls, what has really shot up is the popularity of No Deal, because with their leaders found out and Brexit in chaos, Leave voters would rather go over the top and charge the machine guns than admit it is all a horrible mistake.

Anteayer

The big problem with this is no matter what the outcome is, the UK is facing a risk of major civil unrest.

In the event of a hard Brexit there's a serious risk mostly from Northern Ireland and if there's no Brexit you've got a risk from the English far right.

Cameron has managed to turn a Tory internal conflict into a public one.

Capt'n Midnight

Sky poll on expected outcome of May Crobyn compromise talks , a lot of people with rose coloured glasses.

9% similar to May's deal
10% similar to Crobyn's plan
16% halfway ie. an actual compromise
42% no agreement

TBH honest I can't see May yielding
and Corbyn is just going through the motions.

Anteayer

Two weak but dogmatic leaders, both of whom seem to be rather fond of the idea of leaving the EU, forced together by circumstance to come up with a plan to prevent a crash out.

This will end well!

RickBlaine

If article 50 is revoked, I can see some riots happening in the day or two after that. But I think that would be mostly scumbags looking for any excuse to cause trouble and loot.

Laois_Man

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

No, it forces May to ask for an extension no matter what so that she can't let the clock run down. That's my understanding anyway.

And if she shows up with no describable plan and the EU tell her to fek off....what then?

RickBlaine

According to The Guardian, the Cooper bill states that a long delay must be sought to avoid a no-deal crash out on April 12

A bill tabled by Labour MP Yvette Copper has been passed dramatically by a majority of one in the House of Commons. If approved by the Lords, it will enshrine in law that Theresa May has to ask EU leaders for a long extension if she fails to get her deal through parliament by April 12, which would rule out a no-deal Brexit - provided Brussels approves a longer extension of Article 50.

Capt'n Midnight

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Sky poll on expected outcome of May Crobyn compromise talks , a lot of people with rose coloured glasses.

9% similar to May's deal
10% similar to Crobyn's plan
16% halfway ie. an actual compromise
42% no agreement

TBH honest I can't see May yielding
and Corbyn is just going through the motions.

Utterly cynical but utterly true, alas. Never have so few screwed so many.

Anteayer

Laois_Man wrote: »

And if she shows up with no describable plan and the EU tell her to fek off....what then?

You can almost guarantee that she's going to turn up with some ludicrous proposal that fails to even consider what the EU's positions might be.

I still think there's a serious risk of a crash out.

Professor Moriarty

Laois_Man wrote: »

And if she shows up with no describable plan and the EU tell her to fek off....what then?

The EU could do that, But I think they will offer her a long extension with terms and conditions. The kind of T&Cs that will enrage Jacob and Boris.

AllForIt

Anteayer wrote: »

The big problem with this is no matter what the outcome is, the UK is facing a risk of major civil unrest.

In the event of a hard Brexit there's a serious risk mostly from Northern Ireland and if there's no Brexit you've got a risk from the English far right.

Cameron has managed to turn a Tory internal conflict into a public one.

Wrong.

The only possibility of civil unrest is No Brexit or a Soft Brexit.

NI is FOR going alone with the democratic outcome of the ref. It has never tried to undo Brext even when the majority of their country voted against. The DUP couldn't possibly take such a position when they themselves vehemently wish to say aligned with the UK. It would be incredible if the DUP/NI as a whole went against the democratic majority of the UK.

If you were taking about Scotland you point would make sense.

There isn't going to be a No Brexit and therefore threat of civil unrest from the tiny far right won't happen even if it happened, but it won't.

Lucy8080

The Cooper bill that passed by one vote was backed by Lady Hermon- Independent Unionist M.P. for North Down. lol.

Strazdas

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Sky poll on expected outcome of May Crobyn compromise talks , a lot of people with rose coloured glasses.

9% similar to May's deal
10% similar to Crobyn's plan
16% halfway ie. an actual compromise
42% no agreement

TBH honest I can't see May yielding
and Corbyn is just going through the motions.

Polly Toynbee of the Guardian was on Newsnight tonight and she reckons both May and Corbyn are bluffing and are not particularly interested in an agreement.....she thinks it's little more than a PR stunt by both.

sabat

MPFGLB wrote: »

Tis guy is ridiculous ...'Nothing or no one will stop us leaving the EU " ...who does he think he is ...If the people change their mind as poles are showing and a majority want to remain now and Labour and Trade Unions are calling for a referendum on any deal including the option to remain in then what will that guy do ??

After seeing that clip of Daniel Kawczynski (b. Warsaw!) and reading his wiki page, together with the information already in the public sphere of brexiteers' business interests, I am now 99% convinced that a large number of them are on a serious cash bonus to deliver brexit no matter what. His tone was just "off."

"Since February 2018, Kawczynski has been paid £6000 per month - roughly as much as his MP salary - by the The Electrum Group, a New York City-based investment, advisory and asset management firm with a focus on the natural resources sector owned by Thomas Kaplan."

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Kawczynski

Laois_Man

Laois_Man wrote: »

And if she shows up with no describable plan and the EU tell her to fek off....what then?

The EU will obviously be portrayed in the British media as big bad Nazis trying to undermine the plucky British as they heroically "take back control". And on and on the deck chairs will be moved and the dance continued until Britannia is finally in the waves.

Anteayer

It doesn't actually seem to specify how long of an extension that May must ask for. She could in theory propose something that the EU will automatically reject, like an very short extension into May.

Professor Moriarty

RickBlaine wrote: »

According to The Guardian, the Cooper bill states that a long delay must be sought to avoid a no-deal crash out on April 12

I mentioned this article earlier. Essentially he trashes the Cooper bill as being a sideshow.

Laois_Man

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The EU could do that, But I think they will offer her a long extension with terms and conditions. The kind of T&Cs that will enrage Jacob and Boris.

A “long” plan set of T&Cs would have to be enforceable upon her successor because she’s surely in her last 10 days in number 10 now...other than a period as acting PM

But there are some in the EU who just want shut of them now and it only takes 1 country to veto an extension

RickBlaine

RickBlaine wrote: »

According to The Guardian, the Cooper bill states that a long delay must be sought to avoid a no-deal crash out on April 12

Here it is. Typical of such things its got some rather impenetrable looking passages in it. Can a long delay be the outcome from it I wonder?

https://services.parliament.uk/Bills/2017-19/europeanunionwithdrawalno5.html

Zubeneschamali

Anteayer wrote: »

The big problem with this is no matter what the outcome is, the UK is facing a risk of major civil unrest.

No, I don't think so. I think any civil unrest will be beaten down like the miners strike or the Poll tax riots. It is not good, but it is not the big problem.

Oxygen for Yaxley-Lennon and his Nazis is not good either, but is also not the big problem.

The big problem is that Brexit could cost the UK 10% of everything, and give them nothing. People will debate and argue about sovereignty and nationalism forever, but if you take 10% of their cash, that really focuses minds.