Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

joe40

Spook_ie wrote: »

Yeah but you read down and you see that 49% of Conservatives want them to stay and only 39% of Labour, so Conservative are for the Union and Labour are for the Republic of England, surveys can say what anyone would like them to say depending on their point of view

49% of conservatives want NI to stay part of UK. Therefore 51% (majority) either want them to leave or are ambivalent (depending how the question was phrased)
That must be worrying for the DUP in the long term.

demfad

Why did Nick Boles single Robbie Gibbs out in his tweet after leaving the Tories?

For being an influential wormtongue for the far-right most likely.

https://www.politico.eu/article/britain-nationalist-dark-web-populism-tommy-robinson/

LONDON — Walk into Number 10 Downing Street, take the first left and straight ahead of you is the prime minister’s press office, an open-plan room of civil servants sitting in rows outside the grand corner office of Theresa May’s director of communications, Robbie Gibb.

A flat screen television sits on one of the walls, scrolling through what is being read online — the most popular conversations and shared articles, search words and trending topics.

Not far away are two or three officials charged with tackling what No. 10 sees as a rising risk, to the government politically and to the country as a whole: the rapid rise of new populist news sites pushing conspiratorial, anti-establishment content outside the channels of traditional media.

Led by No. 10 Downing Street’s Head of Digital Communications Chris Hamilton, the British government’s five-strong “rapid response unit” spread across No. 10 and the Cabinet Office is tasked with monitoring and firefighting stories set alight on social media, often beyond the radar of many of London’s politicians and journalists.

Stories going viral are discussed at an 8 a.m. prep meeting,.....Three times a day a media summary is distributed inside No.10, setting out what is dominating the traditional news outlets and online publications.

........increasingly a raft of “half campaign, half news websites,” barely known to anyone in Westminster, have become an issue of mounting concern in No. 10.

According to one U.K. government official involved in the briefings, the sites include publishers of viral content like LadBible and Joe.co.uk, as well as political sites like the Canary on the left and Westmonster on the right.

Increasingly, they also include a new breed of hyper-partisan news sites associated with the populist right. Some, like PoliticalUK.co.uk and Politicalite.com, have seemingly surged from nowhere in recent months to occupy a dominant position in online conversations

Some publications were hostile, of course, but they were known quantities, their editors contactable, th
eir reporters easy to berate. Today’s news media has broken completely free of these bounds.

..... British political news website was registered in Scottsdale, Arizona. Within weeks, PoliticalUK.co.uk was producing some of the most viral news stories in the U.K. and had been included on briefing notes circulated in No. 10.
... Its owner is anonymous, having registered the site with the U.S. firm
....And yet, since PoliticalUK.co.uk started publishing stories at the end of April, the site has amassed more than 3 million interactions on social media, with an average of 5,000 “engagements” for every story it has published — far more than most national newspapers.

I wondered after I read this article first that if one could identify the person who was definitively in charge of having the right wing propaganda media streamed on big screens in Downling Street, and having the likes of US (pretend British, pretend real) site PoliticalUK.co.uk making the agenda prep meetings for the day... with a 5 strong rapid response team to the latest 5 star BS....it beggard belief this stuff.

Anyway, reading between the lines of Nick Boles tweet this person is Robbie Gibbs.

Spanish Eyes

Commons suspended because the roof of the Chamber is leaking

Sparko

House of Commons sitting suspended due to water pouring in from a leak.

https://news.sky.com/story/house-of-commons-sitting-suspended-as-parliaments-roof-leaks-11684169

Expected to be ok for sitting on Monday.

An Ciarraioch

No votes expected until Tuesday, with the European Council meeting 24 hours later!

http://twitter.com/nmdacosta/status/1113807161405136897

Spook_ie

Sparko wrote: »

House of Commons sitting suspended due to water pouring in from a leak.

https://news.sky.com/story/house-of-commons-sitting-suspended-as-parliaments-roof-leaks-11684169

Expected to be ok for sitting on Monday.

So we now have a roofing leak as well as all the other leaks for the last 3 years, you couldn't make this up

Dyr

badtoro wrote: »

You'd hear them in the HOC referring to it as "this place"

"Friends of ours"

road_high

seamus wrote: »

Can't believe there are still some people persisting with this British nonsense that the Germans are driving the bus and Merkel is over here to tell Leo off like a bold schoolchild.

If you've been paying any attention to print, radio & TV over the last couple of months, you'll have seen plenty of government ads about being "Brexit-ready".

That’s because that’s what they want to believe and the narrative that fits. Anything to be anti FG and govt. if it wasn’t this it would be a million other things they’d be droning on about. Some people think central government should wipe their arses for them

looksee

theguzman wrote: »

They'd badly want to clean that ivy and rotten creepers off the front columns, looks like a deserted ruin of a castle.

There is no ivy, and the creeper is probably a hundred years old and will be a glorious show of (I think) wisteria in the summer.

Enzokk

ShooterSF wrote: »

Those statements don't sound like I'm not planning to implement a border but am prepared for one in the event of it. I remember hearing him say this kinda stuff and being outraged. Again I get people are ok with him lying about (Im not) but the idea that he didn't say he wasn't preparing in case a border happened was not the case imo.

Well you have to remember that discussions with other EU leaders would have taken place already on what is and what isn't acceptable for them in regards to a border initially. They would have had discussions on what probably would happen in that case and what the future plans would be.

In the case of no-deal Ireland will not initially be putting up infrastructure at the border as we have no plans to do so, have not started construction for infrastructure either. You have to remember that if no-deal were to happen the UK will very quickly be asking the EU to start trade talks and the first issues that will need to be sorted will be the Irish border, the money still owed by the UK and citizens rights. You may find that the UK quickly accepts the NI only backstop if the PM at the time is sensible and thus no border will be needed.

Both parties would have kept their word and no new border infrastructure or checks will happen.

jester77

They can ask the EU for an extension so they can fix their leaky roof, a good chance that it would be the only solid proposal they will have!

ShooterSF

Enzokk wrote: »

Well you have to remember that discussions with other EU leaders would have taken place already on what is and what isn't acceptable for them in regards to a border initially. They would have had discussions on what probably would happen in that case and what the future plans would be.

In the case of no-deal Ireland will not initially be putting up infrastructure at the border as we have no plans to do so, have not started construction for infrastructure either. You have to remember that if no-deal were to happen the UK will very quickly be asking the EU to start trade talks and the first issues that will need to be sorted will be the Irish border, the money still owed by the UK and citizens rights. You may find that the UK quickly accepts the NI only backstop if the PM at the time is sensible and thus no border will be needed.

Both parties would have kept their word and no new border infrastructure or checks will happen.

That is fair and seems a very likely approach. I still think making ANY assumptions of what the UK are likely to do is a risk and we should still have had contingency plans, and I think we do and I think a lot here think we do. Just that our government aren't admitting it (I'll pull back from lying if that helps) and I'm not keen on a lack of transparency from the heads of our country.

prawnsambo

Water John wrote: »

Prawn, we all know the EU will amend any ext request from May. They did the last time. If Cooper's Bill was so wrong, Cox would have been all over it.

Cox won't be all over it because the faults aren't legislative ones. It just won't be very effective. What's going on at the moment iin the Lords is an effective filibuster by tabling amendments that have to be debated and voted on before they get to the bill itself. All of this will take time and parliament can't act on it until it's through the Lords and the Queen has signed it into law. And even if it gets through all that by (say) Monday (which is very optimistic), they still have to put the motion to parliament to instruct May to ask for an extension and then agree to the one she decide on. How long will this all take?

I don't see this as stopping a hard brexit at all. It's going to take too much time. And as Maugham says, it has holes in it that will make it ineffective if any of the steps fail. And as you say above, if the EU come back with a different date that May rejects (and I think parliament has to too), it has to be reset and there's no time for that.

ShooterSF

Did this poll slip under the threads radar btw (2nd of April couldn't find any post) ?

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1113128054694572033

I'm amazed no deal polled higher than remain as any polls on second referendums between the two which you'd imagine would have similar points of views have showed remain ahead by a few points.

prawnsambo

ShooterSF wrote: »

Did this poll slip under the threads radar btw (2nd of April couldn't find any post) ?

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1113128054694572033

I'm amazed no deal polled higher than remain as any polls on second referendums between the two which you'd imagine would have similar points of views have showed remain ahead by a few points.

It's a very hypothetical poll. It really doesn't reflect any real choice people will have to make or potentially could make. I was certainly aware of it, but pretty much dismissed it for the above reasons. If they get to the 12th without a deal, then it's all over anyway.

fash

Enzokk wrote: »

You have to remember that if no-deal were to happen the UK will very quickly be asking the EU to start trade talks and the first issues that will need to be sorted will be the Irish border, the money still owed by the UK and citizens rights. You may find that the UK quickly accepts the NI only backstop if the PM at the time is sensible and thus no border will be needed.

I wonder if this is what would happen quickly: Brexiters are likely to blame the EU for bullying the UK- it would be hard for them to reverse course while being "blackmailed" into the WA. It would have to depend on the remainers deciding changing position- given that remain would no longer be an option.
Just trying to wargame what the next steps would be...

Irish Praetorian

ShooterSF wrote: »

Did this poll slip under the threads radar btw (2nd of April couldn't find any post) ?

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1113128054694572033

I'm amazed no deal polled higher than remain as any polls on second referendums between the two which you'd imagine would have similar points of views have showed remain ahead by a few points.

I saw it, but it seems to be something of an outlier when it comes to wider polling on the issue, and even so its well within the margin of error, so I'm not sure its reflective of anything new.

20silkcut

It’s gas brexiteers thought they’d be negotiating with the Germans at this stage.
The reality the Germans are more interested in negotiating with farmers from inishowen!!!

farmchoice

fash wrote: »

I wonder if this is what would happen quickly: Brexiters are likely to blame the EU for bullying the UK- it would be hard for them to reverse course while being "blackmailed" into the WA. It would have to depend on the remainers deciding changing position- given that remain would no longer be an option.
Just trying to wargame what the next steps would be...

it really is impossible to know, we are in complete virgin territory at that stage.


i would predict the following.
day after hard brexit, not much happens every camera crew in the world are on the Irish border, que funny clips of auld fellas walking a few cattle for milking and school girls claiming they have never heard of brexit. the world reports there is nothing to see the whole thing WAS just project fear.
a week after brexit the cameras are back but this time in Dover, while the first few days were alright a car accident on day 6 started a delay that is now 20 miles long and growing.
2 weeks the squeeze is on ,shortages are starting to appear and its making the news.
the Brits are putting feelers out to Brussels. the papers are spinning that the EU is under pressure from spanish french and irish farmers they ARE ABOUT TO CRACK.
1 month. the game is up its increasing chaos, the irish border is long forgotten the action is all in UK cities and towns now. a deal needs to be done now. a government of national unity is cobbled together to agree to all eu demands.
Britain is close to civil war expect there are about 10 different groups fighting with themselves and each other. they are desperately trying to blame the EU, the Irish, the french the germans the russians, but its no good by now its obvious enough where the blame lies, with themselves alone.

Shelga

I don’t understand why everything goes dead at Westminster from Friday to Sunday every week, with imminent catastrophe looming quickly. This latest bill to prevent no deal could be held up in the HoL for another several days, it’s absolutely ridiculous. Still taking 48 hours off though.

prawnsambo

20silkcut wrote: »

It’s gas brexiteers thought they’d be negotiating with the Germans at this stage.
The reality the Germans are more interested in negotiating with farmers from inishowen!!!

This is what Andrea Leadsom was predicting would be the situation by now. Hilariously off the mark, but this stuff was swallowed hook line and sinker.

Capt'n Midnight

prawnsambo wrote: »

This is what Andrea Leadsom was predicting would be the situation by now. Hilariously off the mark, but this stuff was swallowed hook line and sinker.

So far almost no rollover of existing trade deals , except Switzerland and that's only for the duration.

UK economy is down £6.6Bn a quarter

At the rate of which the UK isn't taking back control the 300,000 new jobs will be for Chinese and Indian migrants arriving in the UK. India especially has made visas the first, second, and third item for any FTA.


Imagine, if she handn't used the "speaking as a mother" card she could have been in No 10 :eek:

Not that it would have made any difference given how the EU could out bid them in any poker game.

bilston

Shelga wrote: »

I don’t understand why everything goes dead at Westminster from Friday to Sunday every week, with imminent catastrophe looming quickly. This latest bill to prevent no deal could be held up in the HoL for another several days, it’s absolutely ridiculous. Still taking 48 hours off though.

MPs go off the to their surgeries on Fridays to speak to their constituents.

The HoC did sit last Friday as an exception.

I would have thought the constituents could wait another week but at the same time people would lament MPs if they didn't deal with the public's concerns.

I don't really know where there is headed at all. I suppose May and Corbyn might cobble something together that gets through parliament, but the consequences of that are unknown. Will it be acceptable to the EU? How will Brexiteers react? The Tory party could rupture? Wil it lead to a General Election? Then what? The polls suggest a similar Parliament would be returned. What if the EU refuses to extend? Then the UK crashes out in 7 days, 5 hours and 24 minutes and then all bets are off.

There are so many competing sides that it makes the Syrian Civil War seem easy to understand

Junkyard Tom

20silkcut wrote: »

It’s gas brexiteers thought they’d be negotiating with the Germans at this stage.

It's a historic thing, it's how the British Empire worked. Park up the gunboats, go find the most powerful person in the land, and threaten them with destruction if they refuse to do business.

ShooterSF

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

I saw it, but it seems to be something of an outlier when it comes to wider polling on the issue, and even so its well within the margin of error, so I'm not sure its reflective of anything new.

It's definitely an outlier but it suggests that while most of the people who voted to leave were not in favour of a no deal there is support for it if it comes down to crash out vs revoke...

ShooterSF

bilston wrote: »

I don't really know where there is headed at all. I suppose May and Corbyn might cobble something together that gets through parliament, but the consequences of that are unknown. Will it be acceptable to the EU? How will Brexiteers react? The Tory party could rupture? Wil it lead to a General Election? Then what? The polls suggest a similar Parliament would be returned.

Haven't the DUP said they will pull the plug on their support for the govt if it passes the WA with a backstop. Considering any deal May has with Corbyn will have to include passing it how does the govt survive afterwards?

Working class heroes

ShooterSF wrote: »

It's definitely an outlier but it suggests that while most of the people who voted to leave were not in favour of a no deal there is support for it if it comes down to crash out vs revoke...

Can't find it but it's been posted/linked here previously. A high proportion of people who favour no deal don't actually understand what "no deal" means.

A lot seem to think "no deal" means everything stays as is.....

Water John

I would expect the negotiating teams headed up by Starmer and Lidington to work well, but May might just ignore it.

bilston

Working class heroes wrote: »

Can't find it but it's been posted/linked here previously. A high proportion of people who favour no deal don't actually understand what "no deal" means.

A lot seem to think "no deal" means everything stays as is.....

So it's been claimed for a while. I'm not sure that's correct.

If it is true then it is exactly why a referendum should never have been called in the first place. UK membership of the EU is just too complicated an issue to expect the majority of the public to understand.

I'm not saying people are stupid, I regard myself as relatively well educated but I don't have great knowledge on international trade. But the reality is the are so many different strands to the EU that even elected politicians struggle with it all.

Charles Babbage

This is too easy to say. If Wales wished to become independent and put up customs barriers then everyone wold expect the public to understand the problems with this. The detail of the EU is complex, the idea of the EU is pretty simple.