Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

RDM_83 again

strandroad wrote: »

RDM_83 again wrote: »

Yeah unfortunately thats deliberately misleading bull****, doesn't stop it being something thats popular and mentioned a lot in more hive-mindish/circle-jerking places as it reinforces a narrative about idiot English voters are.

I don't think that it was claimed that they think no deal means remain en masse. In your figures there is indeed only 4% of such responses, but then also 18% who don't know what no deal means at all. Put together, almost a quarter of polled souls do not have a clue about the real meaning of no deal. In January 2019.

Significant numbers also believe that the impact of no deal will only be temporary: "63 per cent of Leavers instead agreed there would be ‘short term disruption but no lasting effects’, set against 16 per cent of Remainers."

In terms of the first part the question asked was "what will the relationship of the UK with EU then"

The way the most accurate answer is phrased " the UK leaves EU and talks end" is basically correct but I would imagine a substantial amount would be unsure about selecting that as an answer because talks of some nature will presumably be happening (that's just one possible misreading of it I am sure there are more)

In terms of the second part, I knew very few leave voters in person but the guy I probably talked to most about it thought there could be a serious economic hit for 5-10 years but it would be worth it in the long run which really isn't that crazy a view considering trade as a proportion of trade UK-EU has been declining steadily for last 15-20 years and the EU recovery from the great recession was pretty poor and preparedness for another economic shock is also lacking.
Basically what's "short term" actually mean is it 5-10 years or 1-2 years?

PS not saying those argument are correct its just there is some logic to them

Strazdas

Water John wrote: »

Seems the Tory side used a lot of time explaining the finer details of the WA.
To meet again tomorrow. Looks like May will send a letter to Corbyn, offering a confirmatory Ref.
May thinks her hopes mainly rest with HOC making choices. That's a big turnaround from trying to stop indicative votes.

I have my doubts about this claim / rumour. That would meet massive resistance from within the Tories.

Water John

Hard to know which way she'll tack. Maybe just kite flying to attract enough Lb MPs. I think the Tory negotiators might have filbustered a bit too today. I'd be always suspicious of the Tories.

Purgative

Strazdas wrote: »

I have my doubts about this claim / rumour. That would meet massive resistance from within the Tories.

Yes it would but somehow I don't think Corbyn would be very happy to recieve such an offer.

FrancieBrady

Strazdas wrote: »

I have my doubts about this claim / rumour. That would meet massive resistance from within the Tories.

Yeh, hard to believe she is gonna tear the Tory party apart after wrecking the UK's reputation trying not to.

DrumSteve

Strazdas wrote: »

I have my doubts about this claim / rumour. That would meet massive resistance from within the Tories.

It could potentially tear Labour apart if true.

Water John

Well it was a strange point to concede first. One would suspect it's a missile to weaken Corbyn in his own party, trogan horse.
But then the both are at the shadow boxing. Lb MPs who signed the letter urging Corbyn not to go with the 2nd Ref, some had already voted for just that the other day. Pointed out by a Tory MP on RTE Primetime.

I'm not sure if anybody else picked up on Merkel's language but listening to the BBC News translation of her speech in Dublin today and it's definitely significant that the most powerful person in Europe sees Ireland as one country and analogous to her own country, despite the current legal position of NI: 'I personally come after all from a country that for many, many years was divided.... so I know only too well what it means once borders are banished... and that one needs do everything to bring about peaceful cooperation...'

Itssoeasy

Strazdas wrote: »

Water John wrote: »

Seems the Tory side used a lot of time explaining the finer details of the WA.
To meet again tomorrow. Looks like May will send a letter to Corbyn, offering a confirmatory Ref.
May thinks her hopes mainly rest with HOC making choices. That's a big turnaround from trying to stop indicative votes.

I have my doubts about this claim / rumour. That would meet massive resistance from within the Tories.

I would meet massive resistance but she’s not going to be prime minister much longer and the Tories can’t chuck her out because she won the vote of no confidence last December. Maybe if the ERG hadn’t been so bloody stubborn then maybe the conservative PM wouldn’t have to be going to look for labour support.

BBC Newsnight now. How quickly it turns: 'One Brexiteer is urging his friends to accept the Prime Minister's deal to avoid a backlash at the polls.

And his name? Daniel Kawczynski MP of the ERG: 'So, the stakes are very, very high. Wouldn't it be ironic if the most Eurosceptic caucus within the Conservative parliamentary party which I'm a member of is ultimately responsible for negating Brexit.'

Two years of bluffing and they turn 180° in the closing days. Nauseating stuff.

Itssoeasy

I wouldn’t be a fan or critic of mairead Mcguinness but she’s doing very well against that guy charles moore. He’s talking ****e.

Shelga

Mairead McGuinness doing a sterling job dismantling Charles Moore’s lies and bullying on Question Time, reminding him that it’s directly because of his Prime Minister that the backstop exists in its current format.

He says Ireland ‘overplayed its hand’ and a no deal Brexit would be worse for us than for them. Now he’s having some sort of breakdown whilst Mairead keeps her cool.

Fair play to her, appearing on a panel show with this absolute charlatan would make me want to jump out the window!

prawnsambo

RDM_83 again wrote: »

In terms of the second part, I knew very few leave voters in person but the guy I probably talked to most about it thought there could be a serious economic hit for 5-10 years but it would be worth it in the long run which really isn't that crazy a view considering trade as a proportion of trade UK-EU has been declining steadily for last 15-20 years and the EU recovery from the great recession was pretty poor and preparedness for another economic shock is also lacking.
Basically what's "short term" actually mean is it 5-10 years or 1-2 years?

PS not saying those argument are correct its just there is some logic to them

Jason Hunter spoke to WTO people last year and they had modeled what effect a hard brexit would have. The first thing was that the UK agri-food industry would not last past two years. That's probably not a huge economic hit, but it has massive knock-on effects on food security and food standards. Then you have forecast loss to GDP of 9% pa. That's a massively shrinking economy on a scale not seen in Europe in decades. And it's not just one year of that. It's multiples of years. What's the effect of that on an economy? Five years means an economy close to half it's original size. It's nuts. As it stands, EY say that £1 trillion of financial assets have left the UK. I believe that to be optimistic. But that would only accelerate massively after brexit. There isn't a forecasting model that can run the permutations on such a hit from so many angles.

prawnsambo

Deleted User wrote: »

BBC Newsnight now. How quickly it turns: 'One Brexiteer is urging his friends to accept the Prime Minister's deal to avoid a backlash at the polls.

And his name? Daniel Kawczynski MP of the ERG: 'So, the stakes are very, very high. Wouldn't it be ironic if the most Eurosceptic caucus within the Conservative parliamentary party which I'm a member of is ultimately responsible for negating Brexit.'

Two years of bluffing and they turn 180° in the closing days. Nauseating stuff.

But, but, but the EU always cave at the last minute.

Tell me how

Shelga wrote: »

Mairead McGuinness doing a sterling job dismantling Charles Moore’s lies and bullying on Question Time, reminding him that it’s directly because of his Prime Minister that the backstop exists in its current format.

He says Ireland ‘overplayed its hand’ and a no deal Brexit would be worse for us than for them. Now he’s having some sort of breakdown whilst Mairead keeps her cool.

Fair play to her, appearing on a panel show with this absolute charlatan would make me want to jump out the window!

Mairead McGuinness, Helen McEntee, Simon Coveney, Neale Richmond have all represented us very well any time they have appeared on UK or Eu public media.

All are well on top of their brief and so far have been very diplomatic in not reverting to petty comments which some of their opposite numbers have done.

Spanish Eyes

Shelga wrote: »

Mairead McGuinness doing a sterling job dismantling Charles Moore’s lies and bullying on Question Time, reminding him that it’s directly because of his Prime Minister that the backstop exists in its current format.

He says Ireland ‘overplayed its hand’ and a no deal Brexit would be worse for us than for them. Now he’s having some sort of breakdown whilst Mairead keeps her cool.

Fair play to her, appearing on a panel show with this absolute charlatan would make me want to jump out the window!

She has the makings of a future Prez of the EU Parliament. She is Deputy at the moment. But what does that actually mean?

Has anyone heard of Antonio Tajani?

Kermit.de.frog

Am I the only one that dislikes McGuinness whenever she is on tv?

She has the headmaster of the school preaching tone which kinda grates after a while.

The substance of what she says though is fine.

prawnsambo

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Am I the only one that dislikes McGuinness whenever she is on tv?

She has the headmaster of the school preaching tone which kinda grates after a while.

The substance of what she says though is fine.

I couldn't give a crap about how it sounds, so long as it doesn't sound like the village idiot. I'm looking at you Boris Johnson.

Spanish Eyes

I will give a gold star to Helen Mc Entee for her interview with John Humphrys on Radio 4

I did cheer her. A hidden gem and well able to fight our corner. Kudos Helen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GrtlNLg1lqQ

AllForIt

Shelga wrote: »

Mairead McGuinness doing a sterling job dismantling Charles Moore’s lies and bullying on Question Time, reminding him that it’s directly because of his Prime Minister that the backstop exists in its current format.

He says Ireland ‘overplayed its hand’ and a no deal Brexit would be worse for us than for them. Now he’s having some sort of breakdown whilst Mairead keeps her cool.

Fair play to her, appearing on a panel show with this absolute charlatan would make me want to jump out the window!

Moore wouldn't be only UK commentator especially in recent weeks to blame the Irish for the current impasse. Henry Newman when he's not blaming the EU he's blaming the Irish. "They've played this all wrong" they say. Laughable. And your quite right about Mairead. I don't know how she kept her cool.

BonnieSituation

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Am I the only one that dislikes McGuinness whenever she is on tv?

She has the headmaster of the school preaching tone which kinda grates after a while.

The substance of what she says though is fine.

Well tbf, you're not really an FG anyway so that's probably the beginning and end of it.

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1113930180496588802

Stunning stupidity.

Mr.Nice Guy

Hard to believe we're still dealing with this 'Who will put up the hard border because we won't' nonsense at this late stage.

Headshot

Dammit I missed question time it seems, any good?

Spanish Eyes

Headshot wrote: »

Dammit I missed question time it seems, any good?

Can catch up on Saturday on Radio 4 with the bbc app. Only audio though. Obviously!

LeinsterDub

Headshot wrote: »

Dammit I missed question time it seems, any good?

It hasn't been good since about 2015

AllForIt

Headshot wrote: »

Dammit I missed question time it seems, any good?

It's always available on YouTube a few days after the broadcast, sometimes within hours.

Spanish Eyes

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1113930180496588802

Stunning stupidity.

Yer man sounded like our Minister for Transport the one and only Shane Ross. Sorry I couldn't help it. Not that Ross would be anything like him, just the accent :P

Lucy8080

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Hard to believe we're still dealing with this 'Who will put up the hard border because we won't' nonsense at this late stage.

Truth is, it is not an Irish border, the Island of Ireland, North,South,East and West have no problem with staying in the E.U.

By extension, it is also not an E.U. border ( they did not erect it).

That posh lad on Question time won't go poor or lose a job over this mess, he will most likely find his own wealthy class in Britain even richer as they soak up recession purchases with the cash they have on their hips (if it's a no deal or an internally unsatisfactory Brexit).

Meanwhile,the Scots are watching with a keen eye as once again their wishes are ignored.

The Union is no longer in the hands of the D.U.P and the Tories.It is entirely their own fault that such a situation has arisen.

54and56

Headshot wrote: »

Dammit I missed question time it seems, any good?

Usually available on YouTube