Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Lucy8080

Newport West by-election.

Labour-9,308

Con.-7,357

UKiP.-2,023

Neil Hamilton was the UKiP canditate (ex Tory).

An Claidheamh

The thing about British nationalists is they come up with some mantra every so often and meow meow it.

They use it as to replace the reality of the situation. Usually... actually always it makes no sense at all.

"chip on your shoulder"

"you lot helped the Germans"

"We bailed out your banks"

Now it's "EU will abandon you", "overplayed your hand".

Of course, the deadline has passed and they are begging for extensions but we all know our thoughts on Brexiters and logic.


Anyway, I stand by my point made months ago.

Britain should be given an ultimatum.

rubbledoubledo

An Claidheamh wrote: »

The thing about British nationalists is they come up with some mantra every so often and meow meow it.

They use it as to replace the reality of the situation. Usually... actually always it makes no sense at all.

"chip on your shoulder"

"you lot helped the Germans"

"We bailed out your banks"

Now it's "EU will abandon you", "overplayed your hand".

Of course, the deadline has passed and they are begging for extensions but we all know our thoughts on Brexiters and logic.


Anyway, I stand by my point made months ago.

Britain should be given an ultimatum.

Could not agree more with you. I have said it from the start also. Then they would come to a decision fairly fast

For Forks Sake

prawnsambo wrote: »

I couldn't give a crap about how it sounds, so long as it doesn't sound like the village idiot. I'm looking at you Boris Johnson.

Speaking of Boris...

https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1113721705254596608?s=09

ilovesmybrick

Donald Tusk will tell EU to back Brexit 'flextension' for UK

I'm not sure how possible it would be to get unanimous support from the 27 for such an idea. What does this mean in terms of the elections in May? Would it still entail the UK electing MEP's, because in that instance if they ratify the deal a month later (unlikely, but you know...) what happens to those seats? And to be honest the idea of dragging out the nonsense in Westminster over potentially another year is frankly draining. We've had months and months of the same tired arguments and falsehoods coming out of the UK and as far as I can tell there has been absolutely no change, bar May losing by a slightly smaller huge amount of votes.

Widdensushi

It reminds me of my two year old, he went through a stage if you gave him a choice he kept changing his mind and got very agitated and had a meltdown. When I googled it it's perfectly normal as the part of the brain that helps make decisions is only developing, I reckon the British politicians are late developing.

ilovesmybrick

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Can catch up on Saturday on Radio 4 with the bbc app. Only audio though. Obviously!

Available here

Working class heroes

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Am I the only one that dislikes McGuinness whenever she is on tv?

She has the headmaster of the school preaching tone which kinda grates after a while.

The substance of what she says though is fine.

Yes. You are the only one.

woohoo!!!

Tuned out yesterday completely, there's only so much of going round and round in circles one can take. Utterly head wrecking and yet politics/TV reality show, you know you shouldn't but... aaaaggggghhhh

First Up

Katy Adler earning her pay on BBC News last night. Broadcasting from Berlin, she talked of the EU "staring into the abyss" of a No Deal Brexit.

You can't say they don't try.

murphaph

First Up wrote: »

Katy Adler earning her pay on BBC News last night. Broadcasting from Berlin, she talked of the EU "staring into the abyss" of a No Deal Brexit.

You can't say they don't try.

She's kind of right but the UK will already be in the abyss looking up wondering what went wrong.

Enzokk

First Up wrote: »

Katy Adler earning her pay on BBC News last night. Broadcasting from Berlin, she talked of the EU "staring into the abyss" of a No Deal Brexit.

You can't say they don't try.

She went back to the old faithful as well, the backstop will be open for negotiation. This according to the next leader, possibly, of Germany. The thing is, she is not in charge right now and has not, as far as I am aware, been involved in the negotiations and knows what is at stake.

So we could look at discussions around the backstop when she takes over. That would be in 2021, so expect the EU to change strategy on not backing Ireland around then I suppose.

Brexit: Germany's CDU leader hopes for second referendum

Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer suggested something else the EU could do: take another look at the controversial backstop guarantee to keep the border open after Brexit:

If the UK now came to us and said "let's spend five days negotiating non-stop on how to avoid the backstop", I can't imagine anyone in Europe saying 'No'. If the UK had new watertight proposals for the border, I don't think anyone in the EU would say 'We don't want to talk about it.'"

Far from official EU Brexit policy, but it gives us a taster of the kind of conversations going on behind closed EU political doors.

MrMusician18

prawnsambo wrote: »

Jason Hunter spoke to WTO people last year and they had modeled what effect a hard brexit would have. The first thing was that the UK agri-food industry would not last past two years. That's probably not a huge economic hit, but it has massive knock-on effects on food security and food standards. Then you have forecast loss to GDP of 9% pa. That's a massively shrinking economy on a scale not seen in Europe in decades. And it's not just one year of that. It's multiples of years. What's the effect of that on an economy? Five years means an economy close to half it's original size. It's nuts. As it stands, EY say that £1 trillion of financial assets have left the UK. I believe that to be optimistic. But that would only accelerate massively after brexit. There isn't a forecasting model that can run the permutations on such a hit from so many angles.

There's a fair bit of muddled facts and more than a hint of schadenfreude at what the UK political system is going through here.
The above though is wrong. The Greek economy contracted by over 25% as a result of the financial crisis, ours by a similarly large amount too. Even the UK economy contracted by 20% between 2008 and 2009.

The cost of Brexit is not a recession, but weaker growth. 9% smaller than it should have been after 10 years is not an economy that's shrinking at 9%pa. In fact, if the UK economy continues to grow, the population might not notice that they are 9% behind where they could be.

murphaph

She said "watertight". Germans don't mince their words so much. She meant exactly what she said, if the UK has real proposals (not unicorns) for avoiding the need for the backstop then we can talk. Of course we can, but they don't and she knows they don't.

murphaph

MrMusician18 wrote: »

There's a fair bit of muddled facts and more than a hint of schadenfreude at what the UK political system is going through here.
The above though is wrong. The Greek economy contracted by over 25% as a result of the financial crisis, ours by a similarly large amount too. Even the UK economy contracted by 20% between 2008 and 2009.

The cost of Brexit is not a recession, but weaker growth. 9% smaller than it should have been after 10 years is not an economy that's shrinking at 9%pa. In fact, if the UK economy continues to grow, the population might not notice that they are 9% behind where they could be.

I'll be amazed if the UK doesn't go into a real and long recession if hard Brexit is the outcome.

MrMusician18

murphaph wrote: »

She said "watertight". Germans don't mince their words so much. She meant exactly what she said, if the UK has real proposals (not unicorns) for avoiding the need for the backstop then we can talk. Of course we can, but they don't and she knows they don't.

:rolleyes: Really?! I'm pretty sure Germans, no more than any other nationality can be evasive or "diplomatic" as the situation requires.

L1011

Some of the UKs current "growth" is from stockpiling. That leads to reduces production further down the line even if the reason for stockpiling never comes to pass. I suspect the PMI would look rather unhealthy without it now and will definitely look disastrous after a crash out

dresden8

L1011 wrote: »

Some of the UKs current "growth" is from stockpiling. That leads to reduces production further down the line even if the reason for stockpiling never comes to pass. I suspect the PMI would look rather unhealthy without it now and will definitely look disastrous after a crash out

If the UK stay in and producers start to rundown their inventory the likes of Farage will blame the resultant slump on Brexit betrayal.

LeinsterDub

Brexit: May asks for article 50 extension to 30 June as Tusk offers up to a year

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/05/donald-tusk-will-tell-eu-to-back-brexit-flextension-for-uk

What is with May and flogging dead horses. This has been rejected more time than the WA and yet she's asking for it again.

murphaph

MrMusician18 wrote: »

:rolleyes: Really?! I'm pretty sure Germans, no more than any other nationality can be evasive or "diplomatic" as the situation requires.

Yeah really. She was entirely diplomatic, whilst at the same time not being evasive.

I have a fair idea how Germans tick. I've lived here over a decade, speak fluent German, have a German wife & child, friends etc.

Akrasia

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/05/donald-tusk-will-tell-eu-to-back-brexit-flextension-for-uk

What is with May and flogging dead horses. This has been rejected more time than the WA and yet she's asking for it again.

So Theresa May goes into compromise talks with the leader of the opposition, spends 2 days locked in negotiations and comes out with the exactly same proposal to the EU that she already requested before those talks and has already been rejected by the EU.

It would be hilarious if it wasn't so tragic.

She has absolutely no intention of compromising with anyone. Corbyn should just insist on a confirmatory referendum on Mays withdrawal agreement as his best compromise and then shift all blame on a crash out solely onto Theresa May's shoulders (he won't though, because he's just as pigheaded as she is)

ilovesmybrick

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/05/donald-tusk-will-tell-eu-to-back-brexit-flextension-for-uk

What is with May and flogging dead horses. This has been rejected more time than the WA and yet she's asking for it again.

It's like she's going out of her way now to p**s off the other 27 by repeatedly asking for things that were rejected only a couple of weeks ago. It's insanity and delusional to think that this will be met with anything but outright rejection.

Leroy42

Tusk, and the EU, will definitely look at trying to get a year long extension. The old adage that it is easier to keep a current customer than find a new one.

This is the 11th Hour that the Brexiteers have talked about but totally misunderstood. The EU are very open to renewed deadlines, pushing back sign-offs, last minute delays etc in order to get what it wants. If that means they have to delay then so be it, but keep the dialogue open.

But that is a far cry from opening negotiations. Any 'delay' will be to allow the UK to come to their senses. It has been like this from the very start. The EU knew from probably the 1st meeting that the UK were a basket case in terms of Brexit, but what advantage was there to pointing that out. I have been of the view back in December 17 that the EU should have never allowed the UK to move the goalposts in relation to Phase 1, but it turns out that the goalposts never moved, it just appeared so and the UK simply moved the problem back a few months. They are still faced with the backstop dilemma, one that the PM and her cabinet have now fully endorsed.

I disagree with Tusk in that I don't think extra time is actually going to achieve anything, but again I bow to his superior knowledge of these things, him being directly involved, and that he must sense that the UK is starting to turn away from the red lines/hard Brexit and that a softer BRINO is within reach. UK politicians must be given the space to bring their country with them.

Professor Moriarty

Akrasia wrote: »

So Theresa May goes into compromise talks with the leader of the opposition, spends 2 days locked in negotiations and comes out with the exactly same proposal to the EU that she already requested before those talks and has already been rejected by the EU.

It would be hilarious if it wasn't so tragic.

She has absolutely no intention of compromising with anyone. Corbyn should just insist on a confirmatory referendum on Mays withdrawal agreement as his best compromise and then shift all blame on a crash out solely onto Theresa May's shoulders (he won't though, because he's just as pigheaded as she is)

Am I missing something here? May and Corbyn are due to resume talks today on an agreed way forward. Yet she unilaterally writes to the EU requesting a specific date for an extension. What's the point of the talks is she's making solo runs?

Professor Moriarty

Leroy42 wrote: »

Tusk, and the EU, will definitely look at trying to get a year long extension. The old adage that it is easier to keep a current customer than find a new one.

This is the 11th Hour that the Brexiteers have talked about but totally misunderstood. The EU are very open to renewed deadlines, pushing back sign-offs, last minute delays etc in order to get what it wants. If that means they have to delay then so be it, but keep the dialogue open.

But that is a far cry from opening negotiations. Any 'delay' will be to allow the UK to come to their senses. It has been like this from the very start. The EU knew from probably the 1st meeting that the UK were a basket case in terms of Brexit, but what advantage was there to pointing that out. I have been of the view back in December 17 that the EU should have never allowed the UK to move the goalposts in relation to Phase 1, but it turns out that the goalposts never moved, it just appeared so and the UK simply moved the problem back a few months. They are still faced with the backstop dilemma, one that the PM and her cabinet have now fully endorsed.

I disagree with Tusk in that I don't think extra time is actually going to achieve anything, but again I bow to his superior knowledge of these things, him being directly involved, and that he must sense that the UK is starting to turn away from the red lines/hard Brexit and that a softer BRINO is within reach. UK politicians must be given the space to bring their country with them.

Tusk is mooting a 'flextension'. This will run for up to a year but will be terminated immediately when the WA or an acceptable agreement is passed by Parliament.

Water John

Once she asks for an ext, it's irrlevent what date as the EU will decide, if, how long and what conditions.

FrancieBrady

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Am I missing something here? May and Corbyn are due to resume talks today on an agreed way forward. Yet she unilaterally writes to the EU requesting a specific date for an extension. What's the point of the talks is she's making solo runs?

Getting it done before the Cooper legislation comes into force?

Professor Moriarty

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Getting it done before the Cooper legislation comes into force?

But wouldn't she still be forced to ask for a longer extension once it becomes law early next week? She really is messing around.

Peregrinus

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Tusk is mooting a 'flextension'. This will run for up to a year but will be terminated immediately when the WA or an acceptable agreement is passed by Parliament.

Nitpick: No, when a WA has been approved and the UK is ready to implement it, which may be some time after approval.

FrancieBrady

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

But wouldn't she still be forced to ask for a longer extension once it becomes law early next week? She really is messing around.

Just asking the question as it seems crazy to me as well, that she seems to be ignoring talks and the Cooper vote.