Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Peregrinus

Water John wrote: »

Once she asks for an ext, it's irrlevent what date as the EU will decide, if, how long and what conditions.

This. She asked for 30 June before, and EuCo said "no" and offered her the 12 April/22 May deal. She took it.

The same will happen again. She'll make a nominal request for 30 June; the EU will offer her what they were going to offer her regardless of what she sought; she'll take it. She just doesn't want the responsiblity of being seen to ask for a longer extension than 30 June.

farmchoice

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Just asking the question as it seems crazy to me as well, that she seems to be ignoring talks and the Cooper vote.

surely corbyn and his team would have been aware of the request and in effect sanctioned it. if not then i would imagine they will walk away today.

jasper100

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Am I missing something here? May and Corbyn are due to resume talks today on an agreed way forward. Yet she unilaterally writes to the EU requesting a specific date for an extension. What's the point of the talks is she's making solo runs?

Its procedural I'd say. She has to give the EU time to consider it, they meet on the 10th I think and the deadline is the 12th I think.

At this stage everybody knows that all deadline dates are imaginary and this can be extended and extended and extended...……….

Professor Moriarty

Peregrinus wrote: »

Nitpick: No, when a WA has been approved and the UK is ready to implement it, which may be some time after approval.

Well, it's probably arguing about the number of angels that can dance on the head of a pin but this is The Guardian today:

"Tusk was pushing the EU27 to offer Theresa May a one-year “flexible” extension to article 50 with an option to leave the EU earlier once the withdrawal agreement is ratified by parliament."

farmchoice

jasper100 wrote: »

Its procedural I'd say. She has to give the EU time to consider it, they meet on the 10th I think and the deadline is the 12th I think.

At this stage everybody knows that all deadline dates are imaginary and this can be extended and extended and extended...……….

it can only be extended beyond the 12 if the UK have agreed to take part in the elections.

once they take part in the elections a flextension is not such a problem.

basically at that stage the eu are saying your are in and you are staying in until such a time you have sorted yourself out.

MrMusician18

murphaph wrote: »

Yeah really. She was entirely diplomatic, whilst at the same time not being evasive.

I have a fair idea how Germans tick. I've lived here over a decade, speak fluent German, have a German wife & child, friends etc.

I've lived over there too, and to be honest I've never found them to be any more blunt than any other nationality I've encountered. What can sometimes come across as blunt or direct speaking can usually be put down to a language barrier and one person not having the vocabulary to communicate with more nuance.

Sweeping generalisations based on stereotypes don't help anyone.

Sam Russell

Water John wrote: »

Once she asks for an ext, it's irrlevent what date as the EU will decide, if, how long and what conditions.

Except for the No 5 Withdrawal Act meandering through the Lords. The date of the extension is hard coded into that. However, the Lords will amend that to be flexible.

MrMusician18

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The cost of Brexit is not a recession, but weaker growth. 9% smaller than it should have been after 10 years is not an economy that's shrinking at 9%pa. In fact, if the UK economy continues to grow, the population might not notice that they are 9% behind where they could be.

And they'll still depend on their millions of foreigners for their health system, hospitality sector, retail sector, cleaning sector and so much else. And all the while the gap between the undereducated English tabloid-reading plebs in northern England and other poorer areas and the educated business classes will grow, not get smaller, as working conditions are lowered to "keep Britain England competitive". What a sham "taking back control". Hoodwinked by the Tory business class, once again.

You can bet the mass of them will not notice, drowning as they will be in a resurgence of nationalistic conceit and Europhobic stories in their oligarchy-controlled media on a quotidian basis. The ugliness of the coming years. I'd prefer if they had a big, sharp shock to bring them to their senses in the next year and then everybody could move on, rather than drawing this out for years.

BonnieSituation

I think I speak for most of us when I say that I can't take much more of this repetition.

Is she just trying to bore us into submission?

Shelga

Deleted User wrote: »

The ugliness of the coming years. I'd prefer if they had a big, sharp shock to bring them to their senses in the next year and then everybody could move on, rather than drawing this out for years.

Agreed. I'm sick of this. I hope the EU sticks to its guns and doesn't grant another extension without a credible way forward from the UK in the next week. After that, let them crash out. Enough is enough.

prawnsambo

Lucy8080 wrote: »

Newport West by-election.

Labour-9,308

Con.-7,357

UKiP.-2,023

Neil Hamilton was the UKiP canditate (ex Tory).

Cash for questions Neil Hamilton to be exact.

Newport West was a 54% leave constituency. And it's just elected an openly remain candidate. Now it's also a Labour constituency and their majority has shrunk by 3,000 votes approximately but their vote is only down by 12% in an overall drop in turnout of 30%. So it's swings and roundabouts really. The drop in turnout is striking though. Only 37% voted in a constituency of 63,000 voters.

Hurrache

The "flextension" is a reasonable offer from the EU, the UK can't whinge too much about that as I'm sure some in the EU won't like it. I presume a precondition is they must partake in the EU elections.

JRM being a dick about it, obviously a tactic to try force them not to accept the offer
https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1114086264024727554

Roger_007

So it looks certain that UK will be taking part in the EU election. That's going to be fun? What happens to the extra seats that the other members were going to get after Brexit?
That means that the EU election is going to be, effectively, a second referendum on EU membership. There will be no other agenda.
The results will be interesting.

Leroy42

Hurrache wrote: »

The "flextension" is a reasonable offer from the EU, the UK can't whinge too much about that as I'm sure some in the EU won't like it. I presume a precondition is they must partake in the EU elections.

JRM being a dick about it, obviously a tactic to try force them not to accept the offer
https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1114086264024727554

This shows exactly what many in the UK will think of when voting in the EU elections.

Why would Tusk want to give them this option?

seamus

Peregrinus wrote: »

This. She asked for 30 June before, and EuCo said "no" and offered her the 12 April/22 May deal. She took it.

The same will happen again. She'll make a nominal request for 30 June; the EU will offer her what they were going to offer her regardless of what she sought; she'll take it. She just doesn't want the responsiblity of being seen to ask for a longer extension than 30 June.

This seems likely. UK politics is entirely about finger-pointing. If May actually makes any decisions, they become her fault. If her decisions get rejected and she is forced to take a different path, then in twisted British logic, it's not her fault.

Is she hoping that she can get to the end of this farce and leave a legacy as an embattled PM who tried to do right, but was blocked at every turn?

Tell me how

seamus wrote: »

This seems likely. UK politics is entirely about finger-pointing. If May actually makes any decisions, they become her fault. If her decisions get rejected and she is forced to take a different path, then in twisted British logic, it's not her fault.

Is she hoping that she can get to the end of this farce and leave a legacy as an embattled PM who tried to do right, but was blocked at every turn?

I think that that is it, plain and simple. She wants to be seen to have upheld the outcome of the referendum but she also recognizes that a No Deal would have serious implications for the country.

That is laudable enough to be fair, it is how she has gone about it why she will be pilloried in the history books.

woohoo!!!

Labour's reaction will be interesting. Once the house of lords passes Cooper, then this latest request of hers is dead. The EU will correctly stay out of this little internal sideshow.

VinLieger

woohoo!!! wrote: »

Labour's reaction will be interesting. Once the house of lords passes Cooper, then this latest request of hers is dead. The EU will correctly stay out of this little internal sideshow.

Corbyn will do exactly the same as he's done for the last year and call for a GE continuing the bizarre symbiosis May and him have of keeping plugging away on the same specific agenda no matter how many times theyve been told no and come back with a different idea.

FrancieBrady

prawnsambo wrote: »

Cash for questions Neil Hamilton to be exact.

Newport West was a 54% leave constituency. And it's just elected an openly remain candidate. Now it's also a Labour constituency and their majority has shrunk by 3,000 votes approximately but their vote is only down by 12% in an overall drop in turnout of 30%. So it's swings and roundabouts really. The drop in turnout is striking though. Only 37% voted in a constituency of 63,000 voters.

37% turnout at a time when politics and the future of the UK is at stake???

I think apathy and dis-interest might be the major crisis facing the UK on that turnout.

swampgas

Lucy8080 wrote: »

Newport West by-election.

Labour-9,308

Con.-7,357

UKiP.-2,023

Neil Hamilton was the UKiP canditate (ex Tory).

The combined Conservative and UKIP vote is 9,380, just ahead of the the Labour vote at 9,308.

This is a nice illustration of how the FPTP system fails to represent the majority of the voters.

I'd guess that most of the UKIP voters would have preferred the Conservative candidate to the Labour one. Had there been STV in place, it's likely that the result would have been different, and have been a better reflection of the wishes of the voters.

Edit: okay, in this instance it might be a stretch to say that the Labour candidate wouldn't have won, but it's pretty close.

Enzokk

prawnsambo wrote: »

Cash for questions Neil Hamilton to be exact.

Newport West was a 54% leave constituency. And it's just elected an openly remain candidate. Now it's also a Labour constituency and their majority has shrunk by 3,000 votes approximately but their vote is only down by 12% in an overall drop in turnout of 30%. So it's swings and roundabouts really. The drop in turnout is striking though. Only 37% voted in a constituency of 63,000 voters.

The result is interesting and you can play with the numbers in a lot of ways. What I do see is that their majority is down, but the UKIP vote is massively up. If the UKIP vote went to the Tories they would have won the seat. I think this will make it interesting if there is a general election, will the Tories go further right to try and keep/win that vote? Because it seems to me that they will lose more of that vote than Labour.

And this is before Nigel and his Brexit Party gets involved as well. Labour would do well to stay with a soft Brexit/Remain manifesto and keep their ideology to the left, they will easily pick off the Tories as their values has meant austerity and the other parties to their right will not diverge much from this.

Leroy42 wrote: »

This shows exactly what many in the UK will think of when voting in the EU elections.

Why would Tusk want to give them this option?

Or it could galvanize the pro-EU voters to vote for MEPs to properly represent them in the EU. If we assume, and I do, that there is momentum for remaining then it should transfer to votes for pro-EU MEPs and less EU-skeptics being elected.

Enzokk

swampgas wrote: »

The combined Conservative and UKIP vote is 9,380, just ahead of the the Labour vote at 9,308.

This is a nice illustration of how the FPTP system fails to represent the majority of the voters.

I'd guess that most of the UKIP voters would have preferred the Conservative candidate to the Labour one. Had there been STV in place, it's likely that the result would have been different, and have been a better reflection of the wishes of the voters.

Edit: okay, in this instance it might be a stretch to say that the Labour candidate wouldn't have won, but it's pretty close.

But you discount the Plaid Cymru, Liberal Democrat and Greens votes, as I think you realize with the edit. Also, you have to assume that all of the UKIP voters are Conservatives that want to Brexit. There is still a Lexit vote out there and I think maybe 25% of UKIP would prefer Labour to Conservatives.

54and56

An Claidheamh wrote: »

Anyway, I stand by my point made months ago.

Britain should be given an ultimatum.

Overt ultimatums are very counter productive. All it will do is provide more raw meat to the ultra brexiteers and cause otherwise moderate brexiteers to row in behind a common cry that the EU is holding a gun to our head blah blah blah.

Must better to stay calm and give the UK enough rope to hang themselves if that is indeed what they want to do.

IAmTheReign

Hurrache wrote: »

The "flextension" is a reasonable offer from the EU, the UK can't whinge too much about that as I'm sure some in the EU won't like it. I presume a precondition is they must partake in the EU elections.

JRM being a dick about it, obviously a tactic to try force them not to accept the offer
https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1114086264024727554

Which of course is all nonsense anyway. They're going to obstruct an EU army that doesn't exist? And if he knew anything about the EU he'd know Britain doesn't have a veto over the budget. Approval of the budget has been done by qualified majority since the Lisbon Treaty.

robinph

FrancieBrady wrote: »

37% turnout at a time when politics and the future of the UK is at stake???

I think apathy and dis-interest might be the major crisis facing the UK on that turnout.

Don't think you can read much into the turnout other than it's right in the middle of the range for previous by-election turnouts which varies between 18% and 69% since 1997:

http://www.ukpolitical.info/by-election-turnout.htm

Leroy42

James O'Brien is making the valid point about the JRM tweet that how can he complain that the UK is ruled without representation in the EU, yet now he claims that the Uk can stop and create major problems for the EU?

So which is it JRM? Do the UK have a voice in the EU or not?

prawnsambo

Enzokk wrote: »

The result is interesting and you can play with the numbers in a lot of ways. What I do see is that their majority is down, but the UKIP vote is massively up. If the UKIP vote went to the Tories they would have won the seat. I think this will make it interesting if there is a general election, will the Tories go further right to try and keep/win that vote? Because it seems to me that they will lose more of that vote than Labour.

The thing that struck me was the size of the constituency. It seems nuts that a country the size of the UK would have such small constituencies. Smaller than a lot of our constituencies. I know we have multi-seat constituencies, so that skews the difference a lot, but we're a far smaller country with a fraction of the population.

swampgas

Enzokk wrote: »

But you discount the Plaid Cymru, Liberal Democrat and Greens votes, as I think you realize with the edit. Also, you have to assume that all of the UKIP voters are Conservatives that want to Brexit. There is still a Lexit vote out there and I think maybe 25% of UKIP would prefer Labour to Conservatives.

True, this particular case wasn't the best example. But the point remains, FPTP punishes parties with similar manifestos as the vote gets split between them.

Shelga

What Eurosceptics really want is for the entire EU to disband. Leaving it will never ever be as good as being a member, while it exists. Time for them to start being honest about it.

Leroy42

swampgas wrote: »

True, this particular case wasn't the best example. But the point remains, FPTP punishes parties with similar manifestos as the vote gets split between them.

I think what it highlights is the changing nature of UK politics. Are we looking at a resetting of the current left/right split to one that is more Brexit/EU?

There is of course the idea that once Brexit is over (will it ever really be over?) that things will return but I think that one of the outcomes of TM latest move is to highlight just how close both parties are to each other in many things.

The number of extremists (and I use that term in terms of the party line rather than anything to do with violence etc) in each party has increased, eg JRM and the ERG as well as Kate Hoey and others in Labour, when in reality they no more belong to the parties they say they stand for than I do.