Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

VinLieger

Leroy42 wrote: »

The number of extremists (and I use that term in terms of the party line rather than anything to do with violence etc) in each party has increased, eg JRM and the ERG as well as Kate Hoey and others in Labour, when in reality they no more belong to the parties they say they stand for than I do.

I honestly believe this is another symptom of the problems around FPTP. If these extremists decided to stand by their real principles and create their own parties instead of hiding under the Labour/Tory umbrellas they know they would never be elected.

Anteayer

I'm increasingly confused by what's happening. I'm getting hassle at work about it now too.

I suggested that we should play it with caution and have contingencies for a hard Brexit. However those of us who have been cautious are now getting told that we are over panicking and it's all been a waste of resources.

At work, the senior managers are now not planning for Brexit and have adopted a 'ah it'll be grand' attitude.

So I'm not predicting anything anymore. If there's a hard brexit and the company goes under, I'll just get a job somewhere else.

I've started looking for jobs abroad as I still think this thing could be a complete disaster.

2008 was enough for me. I'm not exposing myself to this kind of risk again.

bob mcbob

swampgas wrote: »

The combined Conservative and UKIP vote is 9,380, just ahead of the the Labour vote at 9,308.

This is a nice illustration of how the FPTP system fails to represent the majority of the voters.

I'd guess that most of the UKIP voters would have preferred the Conservative candidate to the Labour one. Had there been STV in place, it's likely that the result would have been different, and have been a better reflection of the wishes of the voters.

Edit: okay, in this instance it might be a stretch to say that the Labour candidate wouldn't have won, but it's pretty close.

Yes but 4th (PC), 5th (LibDem), 6th (Green) and 7th (Renew) would be likely to choose Labour over Tory if STV was in place.

Enzokk

swampgas wrote: »

True, this particular case wasn't the best example. But the point remains, FPTP punishes parties with similar manifestos as the vote gets split between them.

I agree with your overall point and you are right that this election wasn't a great representation of it. FPTP is a flawed system when but I don't see either party going for changes if it means changing the way they do business or politics.

ShooterSF

I've really liked tusk up to now but if this is true he's totally caved. The uk do not have a concrete plan for a long extension. The rumour is they're not going to even ask for one. Hopefully the council have a bit more backbone.

swampgas

Shelga wrote: »

What Eurosceptics really want is for the entire EU to disband. Leaving it will never ever be as good as being a member, while it exists. Time for them to start being honest about it.

It's hard to know how many Brexiters just want out, and how many want to see the EU destroyed. Certainly there are some high profile people like Farage who have openly expressed their very strong wish to see the Euro fail and the EU collapse.

Maybe in their eyes it's a "successful empire" on their doorstep, which aggravates their nostalgia for the British Empire. Or maybe (as I suspect) they are being influenced (or encouraged, bribed or blackmailed) by major players like the US, China and Russia who might find it useful to have the EU reduced in status and influence.

VinLieger

ShooterSF wrote: »

I've really liked tusk up to now but if this is true he's totally caved. The uk do not have a concrete plan for a long extension. The rumour is they're not going to even ask for one. Hopefully the council have a bit more backbone.

What are you talking about? The longer the extension the more likely a 2nd referendum or GE which could led to article 50 being revoked which both Tusk and Barnier have said they have always been open to. You seem to be coming from the position that it is the EU's job to punish the UK.

Hurrache

ShooterSF wrote: »

I've really liked tusk up to now but if this is true he's totally caved. The uk do not have a concrete plan for a long extension. The rumour is they're not going to even ask for one. Hopefully the council have a bit more backbone.

There's no caving, and they have asked for an extension.

Anteayer

All I know is that I can't work in a regulatory environment that's subject to another 12 months of chaos. The Tories and a large aspect of British politics have behaved absolutely irresponsibly with all this brinkmanship.

It's all fine and well when you're in a bubble of political game playing but there are real consequences in businesses all over these islands and in Europe too.

The idiocy isn't being called out hard enough and the markets seem to be off in their own bubble (which is often very London centric and very anti regulation) so that's resulted in a perception that this chaos is without consequences.

MrMusician18

Hurrache wrote: »

There's no caving, and they have asked for an extension.

What is the plan?

Hurrache

MrMusician18 wrote: »

What is the plan?

Who's plan?

Penn

MrMusician18 wrote: »

What is the plan?

Give the UK enough time to come up with a plan for a proper Brexit with a deal (whether by changing their red lines to come up with a new withdrawal agreement, a general election or a second referendum), because a deal is in the EU's best interests as well as the UK's (though no Brexit would be the preferred option). However, make sure the extension is longer than the UK is asking for in order to sort out the issue of the UK having to hold MEP elections, which again is in the EU's best interests.

Tusk hasn't caved. He's being entirely reasonable and acting in the EU's best interests.

Kermit.de.frog

The Spectator is sore over Ireland joining as as observer the French commonwealth.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/04/irelands-strange-decision-to-become-a-french-colonial-outpost/

Argues in a post Brexit world makes more sense for Ireland to join their commonwealth.

MrMusician18

Penn wrote: »

Give the UK enough time to come up with a plan for a proper Brexit with a deal (whether by changing their red lines to come up with a new withdrawal agreement, a general election or a second referendum), because a deal is in the EU's best interests as well as the UK's (though no Brexit would be the preferred option). However, make sure the extension is longer than the UK is asking for in order to sort out the issue of the UK having to hold MEP elections, which again is in the EU's best interests.

Tusk hasn't caved. He's being entirely reasonable and acting in the EU's best interests.

The EU had said that there would be no extension beyond the end of May unless the UK took part in EU parl. elections AND had a realistic plan for what it was going to use the extended period for. It was strongly hinted that the UK would need to organise a general election or referendum for the plans to be considered serious.

But now Tusk has essentially given them carte blanche to continue as they have, squabbling, for another year.

So yeah, it is a European U turn.

Evd-Burner

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Spectator is sore over Ireland joining as as observer the French commonwealth.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/04/irelands-strange-decision-to-become-a-french-colonial-outpost/

Argues in a post Brexit world makes more sense for Ireland to join their commonwealth.

I'm at a complete loss for words after reading that to be honest!

ShooterSF

VinLieger wrote: »

What are you talking about? The longer the extension the more likely a 2nd referendum or GE which could led to article 50 being revoked which both Tusk and Barnier have said they have always been open to. You seem to be coming from the position that it is the EU's job to punish the UK.

No I'm coming from a position that rest of the EU has said that any long extension must come with a plan by the UK why they want it for. Now we're just going to offer one in the hope that they sort their mess out. How is that not a u-turn?

Hurrache wrote: »

There's no caving, and they have asked for an extension.

I've heard 30th of June and 22nd of May. No plan for a long extension as they haven't even requested one.

Hurrache

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Spectator is sore over Ireland joining as as observer the French commonwealth.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/04/irelands-strange-decision-to-become-a-french-colonial-outpost/

Argues in a post Brexit world makes more sense for Ireland to join their commonwealth.

That's the dumbest ****ing thing I've read in a long line of dumb ****ing things to come from the Brexit loving press, even considering it's in the Spectator, and the writer is/was a Daily Mail writer.

They really are sore that's they've been outplayed diplomatically.

MrMusician18

Hurrache wrote: »

That's the dumbest ****ing thing I've read in a long line of dumb ****ing things to come from the Brexit loving press, even considering it's in the Spectator, and the writer is/was a Daily Mail writer.

They really are sore that's they've been outplayed diplomatically.

I do like the bit about them being at the back of the queue for the bailout loan repayment. Of course he neglected to mention that the UK refused the offer to be repaid early.

lawred2

Hurrache wrote: »

That's the dumbest ****ing thing I've read in a long line of dumb ****ing things to come from the Brexit loving press, even considering it's in the Spectator, and the writer is/was a Daily Mail writer.

They really are sore that's they've been outplayed diplomatically.

the image is outrageously offensive too - a cartoon of some senior European politicians drawing a border on the island of Ireland.

There is only one country on this planet responsible for a geopolitical border on this island.

And none of those politicians hail from there.

lawred2

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I do like the bit about them being at the back of the queue for the bailout loan repayment. Of course he neglected to mention that the UK refused the offer to be repaid early.

Post fact/truth world now - reality doesn't matter. The intended reader will pass on the lie with conviction.

Hurrache

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I do like the bit about them being at the back of the queue for the bailout loan repayment. Of course he neglected to mention that the UK refused the offer to be repaid early.

Indeed, I did laugh at that alternative reality he put forward.

ShooterSF

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Spectator is sore over Ireland joining as as observer the French commonwealth.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/04/irelands-strange-decision-to-become-a-french-colonial-outpost/

Oh one would love to ask him why we speak English in the feckin first place :pac::pac:

seamus

When the writer starts out describing Irish independence as Ireland "walking out of the Commonwealth", it tells you everything you need to know about the rest of the article.

Not least the cartoon which is just an anti-EU one reused from earlier in the year.

Hurrache

Verhofstadt's take on JRM. The rolling extension is far from a done deal.

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1114119719655755776

lawred2

Hurrache wrote: »

Indeed, I did laugh at that alternative reality he put forward.

You'd be forgiven for thinking that Ireland willingly joined the commonwealth prior to 'walking' out of it 70 years ago.

Worrying thing is that

a) the author believes it
b) the author doesn't believe it, knows it's all bollocks but knows that many readers will take it at face value and he is in fact creating his own version of history

Professor Moriarty

Jacob's call for the UK to be difficult by vetoing everything in the event of a long extension, apart from being typically nasty, is very self-defeating. Maybe someone should break it to him gently that being difficult can be a two-way street.

Anteayer

Evd-Burner wrote: »

I'm at a complete loss for words after reading that to be honest!

To the astonishment of diplomats all over the world..

This quotation of unnamed groups of people is a massive problem both within the UK media and the US media. Which diplomats? Where?

There are quite a few non French speaking countries in that organisation as observers - notably in South America and many countries in eastern Europe including Poland for example, and there full members who've nothing to do with the old French empire notably French speaking countries like Switzerland and Belgium. So I have my doubts that diplomacy is in any way shocked.

It's also structured very differently to the Commonwealth and is much less France centric than the commonwealth is British monarchy centric.

The Commonwealth had a huge opportunity to reform by coming up with a diversity of leadership and real democratic structures but they just appointed Prince Charles as the replacement for QEII whenever she passes on and there's no term limits. It's just head of organisation for life. So it's still floundering around with the legacy of being the reminant of an empire.

It's very easy to offend some of these right wing commentators. They spend their lives being outraged.

ambro25

Leroy42 wrote: »

I think what it highlights is the changing nature of UK politics. Are we looking at a resetting of the current left/right split to one that is more Brexit/EU?

There is of course the idea that once Brexit is over (will it ever really be over?) that things will return but I think that one of the outcomes of TM latest move is to highlight just how close both parties are to each other in many things.

The number of extremists (and I use that term in terms of the party line rather than anything to do with violence etc) in each party has increased, eg JRM and the ERG as well as Kate Hoey and others in Labour, when in reality they no more belong to the parties they say they stand for than I do.

That changing nature is unfortunately not restricted to the UK, as witnessed in Hungary, Poland and Italy, and notwithstanding the relative muting of French and Dutch Euroscepticism since Brexit started.

EU premiers are only too aware of the issue, and are starting on a strong anti-popularist drive in advance of the EU elections.

I saw Bettel delivering such a speech at a business event only yesterday afternoon:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uNqujddq2Sc

Expect much more of this from him, Macron & friends on the run up to May.

GLaDOS

We joined the French Commonwealth?

Zubeneschamali

ShooterSF wrote: »

I've heard 30th of June and 22nd of May. No plan for a long extension as they haven't even requested one.

There has been no official statement from there EU side that a plan is a requirement for a long extension, those were remarks by various individuals. It will be up to the leaders at the summit to decide, last time they cooked up April 12th and May 22nd, neither of which May requested.

As noted Earlier, May is just asking for 30th of June again, same request rejected last time.

And same as last time the EU are going to say no, here is the extension on offer, take it or leave. The 1 year flextension is just Tusk's proposal, but the summit will throw her a bone of some shape and size, and it will be long forcing EU elections in the UK.

And she will take it.