Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

An Claidheamh

robindch wrote: »

Tempting as it is, that will backfire immediately by providing Brexit Ultras with a reason to hate the EU which others can support - it would be similar in noise, if perhaps not in scale or consequences, to what happened after WWI, when Germans were stumped with enormous war reparations, providing Hitler and friends a convincing justification for their "us versus them" mentality.

That's the thing.

The ultras will always be like that.

Instead, their betters need to stop messing us around.

I fear this delaying the inevitable is giving them an advantage and courtesy they don't deserve.

Indeed, as was said earlier, will focus their mind.

Loafing Oaf

Larbre34 wrote: »

Sky Data poll on the state of play:

Happy to participate OR don't mind European elections - 51%

Angry at the prospect - 43%

(within that, 47% would cast a vote, 26% boycott, 17% wouldn't be voting anyway)

I reckon if the Euro elections go ahead they might have the highest ever participation, including a big chunk of voters angry at the election going ahead at all and casting a protest vote for Farage or whoever...

Infini

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I reckon if the Euro elections go ahead they might have the highest ever participation, including a big chunk of voters angry at the election going ahead at all and casting a protest vote for Farage or whoever...

Could be just as big a pro EU vote as well. The countries deadlocked because facts and reason have been undermined by the parasitical proponents of Brexit who's leaders every day are exposed as nothing more than oppertunists trying to profit on this and have only gotten this far purely because of the toxic ignorance and misinformation pushed for the last few decades by rags like the daily mail etc.

The elections could be an oppertunity though expecially if a concerted effort were mounted expecially against Farage leading to him failing to be elected. Ledbydonkeys would have a field day alone by following him everywhere and exposing every hypocritical lie hes spouted.

Tell me how

Infini wrote: »

Could be just as big a pro EU vote as well. The countries deadlocked because facts and reason have been undermined by the parasitical proponents of Brexit who's leaders every day are exposed as nothing more than oppertunists trying to profit on this and have only gotten this far purely because of the toxic ignorance and misinformation pushed for the last few decades by rags like the daily mail etc.

The elections could be an oppertunity though expecially if a concerted effort were mounted expecially against Farage leading to him failing to be elected. Ledbydonkeys would have a field day alone by following him everywhere and exposing every hypocritical lie hes spouted.

I'd be leaning towards it turning out to be more of the Anti-EU vote.

There still seems to be a massive groundswell behind leaving which has been emboldened by the idea that democracy has been railroaded. I think a 2nd referendum would return a remain verdict but with no greater than 55% share.

I think in the case of EU elections which are intended to be pointless, it will be the anti-EU voices which are loudest.

Enzokk

Laois_Man wrote: »

Not to mention the fact that giving them another 2 years effectively gives them all the benefits of the 2-year transition period, but without them having to either sign up to a backstop or pay the £39 billion, which I believe to be the motivation for delay in some people's minds on the UK side. They can't be allowed to do that.

Tell May straight, announce next week that you are going for a general election, or a second referendum, our you're out next Friday. End of discussion!

Well the transition period is EU membership but they would not have a say in anything the EU does so it does benefit the UK. As for the divorce payments, those are just obligations the UK has made before and it is just them confirming they will be paying them even though they are not EU members any longer.

If they are still part of the EU and some of those costs were included in the settlement agreement then if they do agree a deal in 2 years time and they leave the £39b may be down to £20b, but they have paid £15b in the meantime as normal costs of being a member. You could see it as a win but it really is the same for the EU, they just want the UK to pay what they said they would.

So yes extending for 2 years would be an advantage for the UK in that they will still have MEPs and be part of EU council meetings, other than that it is the same as the transition.

As for the talks between Labour and May, it has not gone well.

https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1114197896470118400

May didn't even compromise on the non-legal binding Political Declaration, so what chances were there on anything else? She is a failure that needs to be removed or no-deal will result.

cml387

Yes but I imagine the prospect of going out to elect MEP's for what is really a waste of time would not motivate any but the hardcore to go out. Hence UKIP would do well again and the moderates would lose out. Sorry but I see no hope in that situation at all.

Enzokk

cml387 wrote: »

Yes but I imagine the prospect of going out to elect MEP's for what is really a waste of time would not motivate any but the hardcore to go out. Hence UKIP would do well again and the moderates would lose out. Sorry but I see no hope in that situation at all.

Those people that have been ignored in all of this is not the hardcore UKIP vote, it is the 48% whose say or opinion has been ignored. Remember that May's deal is in fact hard Brexit and the only thing harder is basically no-deal. The only thing that is making it softer is the DUP, ironically, by insisting that the whole of the UK has the same regulations and thus the break from the EU is not as hard as she wanted.

So as with the marches I expect the pro-EU vote to be more determined and have more motivation to go out and vote for pro-EU candidates. They would also be able to give the Tories and UKIP a bloody nose as well, remember that Labour MEPs are very much the opposite of their fellow MEPs from UKIP and the Conservatives and are very much pro-EU, even if Corbyn is not.

Laois_Man

So Barnier and his team are coming to Dublin on Monday for talks with Varadkar, Coveney and Donoghue

So we'll have another round of "the Irish are about to be put in their place" commentary from across the sea!

Junkyard Tom

Would EU elections in Britain end up being a proxy Brexit referendum rerun? It would be very interesting to see the outcome.

Itssoeasy

Laois_Man wrote: »

So Barnier and his team are coming to Dublin on Monday for talks with Varadkar, Coveney and Donoghue

So we'll have another round of "the Irish are about to be put in their place" commentary from across the sea!

So how would Barnier coming to dublin to speak to three of the top people in our government possibly be spun as what you've quoted in italics ? I just don't understand how the British can spin things like that and enough of the population believe it.

FrancieBrady

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Would EU elections in Britain end up being a proxy Brexit referendum rerun? It would be very interesting to see the outcome.

Would certainly be interesting in northern Ireland.
Would the current vote share change.

LeinsterDub

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Just copy and paste the url

https://twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1088058967572520961

That was a really, really obtuse thing for him to say. Crazily ignorant in each clause of each sentence. The mind boggles that these people actually have researchers in their paid employment to, well, research these things and yet they can still utter such lamentably benighted "facts".

I think witnessing these people I've just skipped Kübler-Ross's 'bargaining' stage and gone from 'anger' to the 'depression' stage.

Scarily, there's actually loads of results for "5 stages of grief" and "Brexit".

c.p.w.g.w

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Just copy and paste the url

https://twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1088058967572520961

Also he think Ulster is Norn Ireland embarrassing

Laois_Man

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So how would Barnier coming to dublin to speak to three of the top people in our government possibly be spun as what you've quoted in italics ? I just don't understand how the British can spin things like that and enough of the population believe it.

It's tongue & cheek based on what I saw earlier this week on one of the UK newspaper sites....cant remember if it was before Leo's Macron meeting or his Merkel meeting!

BonnieSituation

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

Also he think Ulster is Norn Ireland embarrassing

Not really. It's a classic unionist trope of differentiation.

otnomart

Finally the cards on fisheries are on the table
"The EU has confirmed it wants a short-term arrangement with the UK on fishing quotas in the event of a no-deal Brexit (...)

Otherwise, “the part of the EU fleet, which depends on access to UK waters” would risk “significant negative economic consequences” in the event of a no-deal Brexit (...)

Fish caught in British waters are worth about €585m (£502m) a year to EU27 countries and accounts for a substantial part of the catch for eight of them. Half the fish landed by Belgian boats is caught in British waters. (...)

The French president, Emmanuel Macron, has described fishing rights as “a lever” to guarantee that the EU gets what it wants from the future relationship with the UK.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/apr/05/eu-confirms-it-wants-short-term-fisheries-arrangement-with-uk-no-deal-brexit-fishing

Purgative

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I reckon if the Euro elections go ahead they might have the highest ever participation, including a big chunk of voters angry at the election going ahead at all and casting a protest vote for Farage or whoever...

I've not lived in the UK for 11/12 years * but Farage was always a joke, a blokey bloke joke. Someone you'd meet down the pub and get fed up with before too long.





Spitting Image would have destroyed him.

cml387

Enzokk wrote: »

Those people that have been ignored in all of this is not the hardcore UKIP vote, it is the 48% whose say or opinion has been ignored. Remember that May's deal is in fact hard Brexit and the only thing harder is basically no-deal. The only thing that is making it softer is the DUP, ironically, by insisting that the whole of the UK has the same regulations and thus the break from the EU is not as hard as she wanted.

So as with the marches I expect the pro-EU vote to be more determined and have more motivation to go out and vote for pro-EU candidates. They would also be able to give the Tories and UKIP a bloody nose as well, remember that Labour MEPs are very much the opposite of their fellow MEPs from UKIP and the Conservatives and are very much pro-EU, even if Corbyn is not.

I've highlighted the problem there in your quote. Would they be Labour,Conservative or Liberal, Green?

road_high

I’m taking it as a given they’ll be in the European elections, seen as May is now talking openly about it. What an utter farce from a crowd of gobby Euro haters that can’t even leave the Union they purportedly hate. Such a big part of me wants them turfed out on their holes but realize we don’t need to suffer the fall out

A Dub in Glasgo

Hurrache wrote: »

The "flextension" is a reasonable offer from the EU, the UK can't whinge too much about that as I'm sure some in the EU won't like it. I presume a precondition is they must partake in the EU elections.

JRM being a dick about it, obviously a tactic to try force them not to accept the offer
https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1114086264024727554

https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1114094310285246464

Enzokk

cml387 wrote: »

I've highlighted the problem there in your quote. Would they be Labour,Conservative or Liberal, Green?

Remember, other than Corbyn and a few of his followers and Kate Hoey, Labour is still very much a pro-EU party.

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1114231615838916614

Channel 4 really have been great as of late, this is a great example of what SHOULD have been done for so long.

Enzokk

Gintonious wrote: »

Channel 4 really have been great as of late, this is a great example of what SHOULD have been done for so long.

He just doubles down on his lie even when confronted with this. If you did this at your work you would be fired, but politicians are allowed and actually rewarded when this happens. Surely there should be something that can be done to ensure that MPs don't knowingly keep lying?

Laois_Man

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1114231615838916614

Channel 4 really have been great as of late, this is a great example of what SHOULD have been done for so long.

I would have preferred to see him quote actual polling findings rather than just continually assert "That's not true"

cml387

Laois_Man wrote: »

I would have preferred to see him quote actual polling findings rather than just continually assert "That's not true"

Ahem...polling figures quoted further up the thread support Redwood's view.

Purgative

Laois_Man wrote: »

I would have preferred to see him quote actual polling findings rather than just continually assert "That's not true"

True. But maybe if you're too good at it, you don't get the people on.


Unless you've already got stature like say Paxo, you're then just an also ran?

Laois_Man

cml387 wrote: »

Ahem...polling figures quoted further up the thread support Redwood's view.

Can you show me the polling that supports the view that most of the UK want a no deal Brexit? I must have missed it!

Strazdas

Enzokk wrote: »

He just doubles down on his lie even when confronted with this. If you did this at your work you would be fired, but politicians are allowed and actually rewarded when this happens. Surely there should be something that can be done to ensure that MPs don't knowingly keep lying?

It's truly exasperating to watch. Even when interviewers attempt to challenge these hard Brexit nutcases, they keep on with their mantra and their ideological ranting. It's virtually impossible to "interview" them.

Kermit.de.frog

They should be cut off mid sentence if they continue lying as John Redwood above does.

They are not nice to remainers generally so I don't see why they should be treated respectfully if they continually lie.

briany

Strazdas wrote: »

It's truly exasperating to watch. Even when interviewers attempt to challenge these hard Brexit nutcases, they keep on with their mantra and their ideological ranting. It's virtually impossible to "interview" them.

What we're looking at, here, is a whole sociological phenomenon of which people going on TV and blatantly, demonstrably lying is but a symptom. Hillary Clinton thought that real-time fact checking of Donald Trump would make a difference. It did not. Donald Trump's supporters were not interested in facts. His message resonated with them, and that's all that mattered. They would shape the evidence to fit his conclusions, rather than shape their own conclusions based on the evidence.

And this has been further exacerbated by the internet (Facebook and Twitter being possibly the two worst culprits) where people really are just living in echo chambers, and when people of opposing viewpoints do have a conversation on these platforms, it is usually from a place of outright hostility. Barack Obama made a speech on this very issue, calling it the 'Balkanisation' of western societies. I don't want to say it was better when old media controlled discourse, but it's a bit like the G.K. Chesterton quote -

"“When men choose not to believe in God, they do not thereafter believe in nothing, they then become capable of believing in anything.”"

We now do not have one narrative, but a thousand. And each purports to be equally as true, thus losing truth altogether. There may not be an objective truth, but there used to at least be what most of us could agree on, but we're losing that, I fear.