Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

briany

looksee wrote: »

I find myself perversely wishing they would crash out and suffer the consequences (and I say this as a long time absent brit) just to finish the nonsense. I am however absolutely convinced that we would be better off if Britain stayed in the EU. On the other hand they have made such an exhibition of themselves and stirred up so much ill feeling that their reluctant presence in Europe would, for many years, be an irritant and a disturbing influence. It seems we can't win.

It's not even really a question. Brexit is a huge economic wildcard for Ireland. We see those in the UK wishing the UK would leave, come what may, as foolhardy, but the same view is hardly an less so when held by those outside the UK, especially in this country.

Capt'n Midnight

WhiteMan32 wrote: »

"Every different Brexit path represents a very different future for our country...........just to be able to tick the box marked 'Brexit' - whatever it means - just so we can say we delivered, I think that would be letting the country down" - Conservative MP Sam Gyimah, speaking on Spohie Ridge on Sunday (Sky News).

There's an awful lot of that now. Andrea was on the box earlier. Like a lot of others the mantra is that A brexit MUST be delivered because that was the mandate of the people.

Completely irrational. Ticking that box is all that matters. Less consideration to the type of brexit. Zero consideration to finding out what the public wanted. Zero acknowledgement that they lost a majority in the General Election.



And the kicker is that so far they have failed to tick other boxes in their 2017 Manifesto. This government could rightly get taken apart on their performance on everything else, Brexit is the only thing they might deliver on.

And then all will be forgiven

coastwatch

WhiteMan32 wrote: »

"Every different Brexit path represents a very different future for our country...........just to be able to tick the box marked 'Brexit' - whatever it means - just so we can say we delivered, I think that would be letting the country down" - Conservative MP Sam Gyimah, speaking on Spohie Ridge on Sunday (Sky News).

The problem is that that view wasn't explained or widely understood before deciding to hold a simple Remain/ Leave referendum. Now the UK voters dont understand why it's taking so long and there's a clamour for "lets just leave, get it over with, we dont care how much it hurts"

Strazdas

looksee wrote: »

I find myself perversely wishing they would crash out and suffer the consequences (and I say this as a long time absent brit) just to finish the nonsense. I am however absolutely convinced that we would be better off if Britain stayed in the EU. On the other hand they have made such an exhibition of themselves and stirred up so much ill feeling that their reluctant presence in Europe would, for many years, be an irritant and a disturbing influence. It seems we can't win.

There is no doubt that Britain needed a shake up of some sort, it seems that countries who have been powerful eventually become moribund, and if they are not lucky enough to get a change of leadership that takes them forward - probably kicking and screaming - to a new identity, then they in some way inflict damage on themselves. This was a spectacular example of self-harm by Britain, and probably it was inevitable. Certainly we are living in 'interesting times'.

It might have been no bad thing had the UK suffered a huge military defeat in the 20th Century (as happened to every other large country in Europe). The idea of English exceptionalism took hold and the notion that the country was somehow invincible (and even superior) compared to its fragile European neighbours.

At the moment, reality is crashing into the fantasy that many British people and the media have of themselves and it's a most unedifying sight. We're watching a country going through a collective nervous breakdown.

Irish Praetorian

Strazdas wrote: »

It might have been no bad thing had the UK suffered a huge military defeat in the 20th Century (as happened to every other large country in Europe). The idea of English exceptionalism took hold and the notion that the country was somehow invincible (and even superior) compared to its fragile European neighbours.

At the moment, reality is crashing into the fantasy that many British people and the media have of themselves and it's a most unedifying sight. We're watching a country going through a collective nervous breakdown.

On the flip-side, if they make it through a no-deal Brexit even better than we're expecting (which admittedly given the prophesies of doom and gloom might constitute no more than simply continue to have an economy), they might end up even more insufferable than before

Mr.Wemmick

looksee wrote: »

I find myself perversely wishing they would crash out and suffer the consequences (and I say this as a long time absent brit) just to finish the nonsense. I am however absolutely convinced that we would be better off if Britain stayed in the EU. On the other hand they have made such an exhibition of themselves and stirred up so much ill feeling that their reluctant presence in Europe would, for many years, be an irritant and a disturbing influence. It seems we can't win.

I think it's time everyone ignored them, they're toxic.. so what if they stay to bicker and b!tch. Who cares? It's time for the EU to turn a deaf ear and unless EU business has to be conducted, why listen to them? They should have a default non UK news policy across Europe and just concentrate on moving forward as a body of countries.

Far too much time has been sucked up by this farce. I don't think they should crash out - they should stay, grow up and start behaving like a country that wants to get on in the modern world.

Numpty politics for the dark ages, yeah right.. and where exactly has it got them? :rolleyes:

If people are saying avoid No Deal Brexit, what are the suggestions for bringing down/exposing the Brexiteers/English rightwing which has been behind these Europhobic campaigns and propaganda in politics and media for decades now?


How do people see them getting their comeuppance?

Purgative

Strazdas wrote: »

It might have been no bad thing had the UK suffered a huge military defeat in the 20th Century (as happened to every other large country in Europe). The idea of English exceptionalism took hold and the notion that the country was somehow invincible (and even superior) compared to its fragile European neighbours.

At the moment, reality is crashing into the fantasy that many British people and the media have of themselves and it's a most unedifying sight. We're watching a country going through a collective nervous breakdown.

Singapore
Dunkirk
Dieppe


I could probably find more

Mr.Wemmick

Deleted User wrote: »

If people are saying avoid No Deal Brexit, what are the suggestions for bringing down/exposing the Brexiteers/English rightwing which has been behind these Europhobic campaigns and propaganda in politics and media for decades now?


How do people see them getting their comeuppance?

Get rid of the Royal family.

Seriously, there's almost an implacable protectionist side to the british media and establishment, and in there tucked neatly away hides the worst of the worst. Exposed by brexit, now seen for the nasties they are and the knowledge that the tory party has focussed purely to keep them in control and hidden from view at the country's cost, I think the country is finally waking up.

Stay in the EU and see the tory party implode, would be my wish. I live here most of the year, and much like everyone else in the UK, I am sick of the toxic tories and their domestic policies. Something has to give and the whole of the UK needs to wake up and modernise its thinking.

20silkcut

For the time will come when people will not put up with sound doctrine. Instead, to suit their own desires, they will gather around them a great number of teachers to say what their itching ears want to hear. They will turn their ears away from the truth and turn aside to myths.

A bible quote from Timothy 4 2 4

Is this Brexit in a nutshell ??
Is it an inevitable reality of human nature?

Strazdas

Purgative wrote: »

Singapore
Dunkirk
Dieppe


I could probably find more

Definite examples of battles being lost but they always emerged on the 'victorious' side. In truth, Britain was one of the big real losers of WW2 but it was spun by the media and the propagandists for decades afterwards as a huge and glorious triumph (in reality, the country virtually bankrupted itself and the Empire began to break up almost immediately afterwards).

ancapailldorcha

WhiteMan32 wrote: »

"Every different Brexit path represents a very different future for our country...........just to be able to tick the box marked 'Brexit' - whatever it means - just so we can say we delivered, I think that would be letting the country down" - Conservative MP Sam Gyimah, speaking on Spohie Ridge on Sunday (Sky News).

Younger Tories like Gyimah or Davidson are precisely who should be leading the party instead of the Brexiters whose sole goal is Brexit. Currently, there is no vision for the country beyond tired and stale soundbytes.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/1114891046025084931

Fairly frank and honest from May here.

Spanish Eyes

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/1114891046025084931

Fairly frank and honest from May here.

Well I will give the benefit of the doubt. Sounds to me like compromise is the way to go, at last. A kick up the backside to the ERG also maybe.

But revoke is the best option of course....:D

Laois_Man

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/1114891046025084931

Fairly frank and honest from May here.

Can we save the use of the word "Honest" for when she actually shows some compromise on her side instead of just talking about the need for compromise on both sides!

An Ciarraioch

The only region where the Brexit Party won't stand candidates is Northern Ireland - because they want to give the DUP a free run there!

http://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1114811435509538816

Mr.Wemmick

Laois_Man wrote: »

Can we save the use of the word "Honest" for when she actually shows some compromise on her side instead of just talking about the need for compromise on both sides!

Exactly. And it has been accurately pointed out by a poster, 9 or 10 comments down from her vid, that is a very large glass of gin she has in front of her.

The purpose of that speech is to prepare the game for the week ahead and make everyone believe she is heading in one direction, when in fact..

Needless to say, I don't trust her.

Sam Russell

Just to return to the question of the EP elections with and without the UK.

I will use numbers that demonstrate the problem, so bear with me. The constituency has three seats with the UK but four without them.

Let us say we have a three/four seater constituency with 10 or more candidates, but we will only look at the first five candidates and assume transfers from lower ordered candidates does not affect the final running order.

Now candidates A and E are one party, and B and D are another, which means surpluses transfer within the party 100%.

So first count has A=25%, B=22%, C=12%, D=11%, and E=10%.

Now with three seats, the quota is 25% and A, B, C all get elected.

However, with four seats, the quota is 20%, so A and B are elected on the first count. Their surpluses are redistributed so E gets an extra 5% bringing the vote to 15%. D gets B's surplus bring the vote to 12%.

So the final count is: A elected, B elected, with E on 15% - elected, D on 12% - elected, with C with 11% - eliminated.

So three seater gets A, B, C. For seater gets A, B, E, and D elected.

So the conundrum is what happens if the UK gets an extension till say April next year and then leaves. Does MEP C clear their desk in favour of MEP D and MEP E?

I have chosen numbers to show how this can happen, but anyone with experience will remember close fights for the last seat, with recounts changing the result. Often it depends on the order of elimination.

Laois_Man

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The only region where the Brexit Party won't stand candidates is Northern Ireland - because they want to give the DUP a free run there!

http://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1114811435509538816

More like, they think they don't have a real chance of winning one

Infini

Laois_Man wrote: »

More like, they think they don't have a real chance of winning one

That or dont want to be representing an area they might want to be rid of later down the line, they dont consider NI as part of the UK anyways.

In other news that by election the other day...

https://www.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1113961482583195648?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1113961482583195648&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.markpack.org.uk%2F158164%2Fnewport-west-byelection-result%2F

Labour wins the seat though both major parties have suffered significant loss of votes. Sad thing bout FPTP is about 30% of the vote is to the other small parties while the 2 big ones take 70% of it.

cml387

Theresa May has now made two direct appeals to the general public. What she hasn't done is an interview with any of the media outlets, at least not recently.
It always seems to be a one way conversation.

Anteayer

Laois_Man wrote: »

More like, they think they don't have a real chance of winning one

It's a parallel political system that's effectively separate and has none of the same parties as the rest of the UK and it's also highly politically charged and even potentially dangerous if you get things wrong.

So, I'd say they'r probably making a sane decision to stay well clear.

..

There seems to be an odd lack of any news over the weekend. Given how close the deadlines are, you'd expect a lot more visible activity.

An Ciarraioch

Sam Russell wrote: »

Just to return to the question of the EP elections with and without the UK.

I will use numbers that demonstrate the problem, so bear with me. The constituency has three seats with the UK but four without them.

Let us say we have a three/four seater constituency with 10 or more candidates, but we will only look at the first five candidates and assume transfers from lower ordered candidates does not affect the final running order.

Now candidates A and E are one party, and B and D are another, which means surpluses transfer within the party 100%.

So first count has A=25%, B=22%, C=12%, D=11%, and E=10%.

Now with three seats, the quota is 25% and A, B, C all get elected.

However, with four seats, the quota is 20%, so A and B are elected on the first count. Their surpluses are redistributed so E gets an extra 5% bringing the vote to 15%. D gets B's surplus bring the vote to 12%.

So the final count is: A elected, B elected, with E on 15% - elected, D on 12% - elected, with C with 11% - eliminated.

So three seater gets A, B, C. For seater gets A, B, E, and D elected.

So the conundrum is what happens if the UK gets an extension till say April next year and then leaves. Does MEP C clear their desk in favour of MEP D and MEP E?

I have chosen numbers to show how this can happen, but anyone with experience will remember close fights for the last seat, with recounts changing the result. Often it depends on the order of elimination.

I thought it had simply been decided that the candidate finishing fourth in Dublin and fifth in South would take their seats once the UK leaves?

Capt'n Midnight

cml387 wrote: »

Theresa May has now made two direct appeals to the general public. What she hasn't done is an interview with any of the media outlets, at least not recently.
It always seems to be a one way conversation.

Brexit MUST be delivered. No explanation other than there was a non binding opinion poll a couple of years ago.

And we will try to not cause hardship, wait what ? , admitting it's likely to go pear shaped but still pressing on.

Laois_Man

Laois_Man wrote: »

More like, they think they don't have a real chance of winning one

Or that like the ERG, they, too, are pushing the DUP off the cliff because they realise that the Brexit which English nationalists like Farage and the Tories want is being undermined by the needs and ideology of the DUP. I wonder, as an aside, to what extent Unionist voters will punish the DUP for their egregiously misjudged support for Brexit? They've opened a massive can of worms/insecurity for Unionists in NI.

Yes, they're still uttering their "verbal Unionism" about "Britishness" for want of a better phrase, but in reality the DUP and Ulster loyalism is an albatross around the aims of English Brexiteers. That is now very, very clear. Rees-Mogg, Boris Johnson and Daniel Kawczynski have all come out in the past 10 days to assert clearly and unequivocally that the DUP will not prevent them achieving their very English version of Brexit. The DUP, for their part, sent Dodds out to say he would rather stay in the EU than accept the Backstop!

Hilarious backstabbing going on among the Brexiteers - and it will only get worse as power ebbs away from them. Expect a Brexiteer version of Night of the Long Knives presently.

Anteayer

Anteayer wrote: »

There seems to be an odd lack of any news over the weekend. Given how close the deadlines are, you'd expect a lot more visible activity.

I would imagine (hopefully) a lot of work is being done behind closed doors and on Monday, some progress will be announced.

Enzokk

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/1114891046025084931

Fairly frank and honest from May here.

If it wasn't so serious I would have considered that a parody. Compromise? Working with other parties as Brexit wasn't a one party vote? We are more than a week removed from the original exit date and just about 5 days until the next one and she talks about cross party support. A little too tale comes to mind.

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Well I will give the benefit of the doubt. Sounds to me like compromise is the way to go, at last. A kick up the backside to the ERG also maybe.

But revoke is the best option of course....:D

Yes, compromise was the way to go 2 years ago. She has spent all that time foregoing compromise and now she is stuck and applying to the people once again when she should be talking to Labour on what deal they will support.

This reminds me of her first speech as PM, where she was going to fight for those that has been left behind and how she is there for all of the people of the UK. Ask the other 65% of NI and the Windrush how that speech has aged.

Looking at the replies she has a problem, nobody is happy. Not Remainers nor Leavers. She has managed to upset both sides and she is sitting there claiming she is doing it for those that are upset with her.

Laois_Man

Deleted User wrote: »

I wonder, as an aside, to what extent Unionist voters will punish the DUP for their egregiously misjudged support for Brexit?

I see this question asked often - But is there evidence to the fact that the DUP's stance has been very out of kilter with their voters' views?

judeboy101

Laois_Man wrote: »

I see this question asked often - But is there evidence to the fact that the DUP's stance has been very out of kilter with their voters' views?

They'll be punished just like Michael Lowry gets punished at every election.

Capt'n Midnight

Laois_Man wrote: »

I see this question asked often - But is there evidence to the fact that the DUP's stance has been very out of kilter with their voters' views?

FPTP , the Westminster DUP's heads will get re-elected because it's us or them'ums.

They don't need to worry about what Arlene or anyone else thinks.

Hard Brexit or Customs union or Remain ?
Doesn't matter as long as they seen to be trying to keep NI in the Union.