Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Professor Moriarty

judeboy101 wrote: »

They'll be punished just like Michael Lowry gets punished at every election.

There's still hope. A poll done in November 2018 showed that, since the 2017 GE, the DUP had dropped 5% to 31% while the UUP had gone from 10% to 15%. I assume that they will have dropped further since then.

Capt'n Midnight

Old news, December 06, 2018, but I can't think things have gotten better since

May’s Brexit deal leads in just two constituencies as it suffers from being everyone’s second choice


https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2018-12-06/First%20preferences%20map%20final-01-01.png


The only case where May's deal wins is against No Deal. And Parliament has ruled out No Deal. ( in Scotland Remain beats May's deal everywhere apart from the oil town of Aberdeen )
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2018-12-06/Condorcet%20winner%20national%20figures-01-01.png

cml387

I know we have seen a number of "crunch weeks", but next week seems to be the decider (hah!).
Andrea Leadsome seems to have nailed her colours to the mast, saying that leaving the EU next Friday is not so bad and a long delay is unacceptable.

The EU's best offer at this stage is an extension of a year, with the ability to leave if a deal is agreed (and their seems to be no chance of that, since it hasn't happened so far).

So next Friday we see either The End, or half the cabinet resigning.

Sam Russell

cml387 wrote: »

I know we have seen a number of "crunch weeks", but next week seems to be the decider (hah!).
Andrea Leadsome seems to have nailed her colours to the mast, saying that leaving the EU next Friday is not so bad and a long delay is unacceptable.

The EU's best offer at this stage is an extension of a year, with the ability to leave if a deal is agreed (and their seems to be no chance of that, since it hasn't happened so far).

So next Friday we see either The End, or half the cabinet resigning.

On that point, someone on the Marr show (cannot remember who) said, if faced with a no extension so crash out on Friday, the HoC would vote to revoke.

At the end of the day, revoke will be there and will be preferable to no deal.

Mr.Wemmick

And here is another in the media coming to their senses.

It still grates, however.. we had to travel 3 years to get to here.

Peter Oborne writes for the Daily Mail and is former chief political commentator from The Telegraph - he says: "We must swallow our pride and think again."

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/i-was-strong-brexiteer-now-we-must-swallow-our-pride-and-think-again/

Sam Russell

Sam Russell wrote: »

On that point, someone on the Marr show (cannot remember who) said, if faced with a no extension so crash out on Friday, the HoC would vote to revoke.

At the end of the day, revoke will be there and will be preferable to no deal.

It's why I put money on revoke months ago.

An Ciarraioch

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

And here is another in the media coming to their senses.

It still grates, however.. we had to travel 3 years to get to here.

Peter Oborne writes for the Daily Mail and is former chief political commentator from The Telegraph - he says: "We must swallow our pride and think again."

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/i-was-strong-brexiteer-now-we-must-swallow-our-pride-and-think-again/

Snap - was just about to post same.

mickoneill31

Dominic Raab posts that Britain is ready for no deal.
He chose a fairly inspiring picture to illustrate his belief.

https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1114442590722711552?s=19

WhiteMan32

Sam Russell wrote: »

At the end of the day, revoke will be there and will be preferable to no deal.

If Article 50 were to be revoked, would MPs be then voting for (or against) it to be RE-invoked at a later date? Also, during the period in between, might support for a second referendum gain sufficent backing by the more (up to now) reluctant MPs?

branie2

I don't think it can be re-invoked

branie2

branie2 wrote: »

I don't think it can be re-invoked

I see no reason why not, article 50 is still in the EU rule book.
Thre's nothing to stop the UK (or any other nation) from invoking article 50 in the future.

Headshot

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

And here is another in the media coming to their senses.

It still grates, however.. we had to travel 3 years to get to here.

Peter Oborne writes for the Daily Mail and is former chief political commentator from The Telegraph - he says: "We must swallow our pride and think again."

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/i-was-strong-brexiteer-now-we-must-swallow-our-pride-and-think-again/

An interesting read.

It takes a lot for a hardened brexiter to admit their wrong, you have to give him credit for owning up to it but we all knew what Brexit was going to do to their country but they still went ahead with it, that's the frustrating thing for me.

I think when this is all done and dusted with I think Brexit will be good for the UK and the EU.

I would like to think the the UK have finally woken to how important the EU is. How important is to keep your biggest trading partner and friend close by. Yes the EU is not perfect but wouldn't you rather be part of something bigger than yourself and change it from within than being bitterly divided and going down a road you'll never come back from.

The UK electorate can now see the poison and selfishness of some MP's like Boris who wanted the PM job so badly he'd sell his ideals down the river to get it or the DUP selling out the NI people who voted to remain.

The Good Friday Agreement is back in the news and this reminds a new generation of the troubles and how the GFA is vital for UK and Ireland.

From the EU perspective the unity is so strong at the moment and Brexit has brought the EU 27 closer and no one will ever want to leave the EU again after this shambles of Brexit.

It probably also opens eyes in Brussels that there's still a lot of things that need to change in the EU like immigration etc so we can be 100% certain this wont happen again

Capt'n Midnight

WhiteMan32 wrote: »

If Article 50 were to be revoked, would MPs be then voting for (or against) it to be RE-invoked at a later date? Also, during the period in between, might support for a second referendum gain sufficent backing by the more (up to now) reluctant MPs?

It can only be revoked in good faith, not to reset the clock, not to drop kick the can.

Once revoked it stays revoked for the foreseeable future. This is why the brexiteers are going nuts over it.

briany

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I see no reason why not, article 50 is still in the EU rule book.
Thre's nothing to stop the UK (or any other nation) from invoking article 50 in the future.

How far in the future? The EU would probably like the UK not to take the p*ss on the matter.

cml387

Sam Russell wrote: »

On that point, someone on the Marr show (cannot remember who) said, if faced with a no extension so crash out on Friday, the HoC would vote to revoke.

At the end of the day, revoke will be there and will be preferable to no deal.

That was Rebecca Long-Bailey
Shadow Business Secretary

However I'm not sure that that would fly in the Labour party.

Capt'n Midnight

mickoneill31 wrote: »

Dominic Raab posts that Britain is ready for no deal.
He chose a fairly inspiring picture to illustrate his belief.

twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1114442590722711552?s=19

Lots of valid comments but this one says it all. Remember the "hardship" bit in May's latest twitter

twitter.com/yaxleymellis/status/1114534727543939073

Wasn't Brexit supposed to make things better?

Now you're expecting us to be grateful that it might not be the disaster all the experts say it's going to be.

Joe_ Public

cml387 wrote: »

That was Rebecca Long-Bailey
Shadow Business Secretary

However I'm not sure that that would fly in the Labour party.

Might not go well with JC but i think a majority of the labour PP would be ok with it. It was actually a Daily Mail guy during the paper round who spoke about parliament voting to revoke if it came down to a binary choice between that and no deal exit.

Capt'n Midnight

Facepalm. If they go ahead it will cost a fortune in lost duty and excise and delays and not to mention the , what was it ? £12Bn a year extra in paperwork.


https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1114228568719003649

Strazdas

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

And here is another in the media coming to their senses.

It still grates, however.. we had to travel 3 years to get to here.

Peter Oborne writes for the Daily Mail and is former chief political commentator from The Telegraph - he says: "We must swallow our pride and think again."

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/i-was-strong-brexiteer-now-we-must-swallow-our-pride-and-think-again/

In fairness to him, he's admitting many of the things that have gone badly wrong with Brexit and is not in denial like the numerous ideologues.

This type of intervention is very welcome. It can't have been easy for him to write and he deserves credit for it.

McGiver

Mr.Wemmick wrote:

Peter Oborne writes for the Daily Mail and is former chief political commentator from The Telegraph - he says: "We must swallow our pride and think again."

Sone signs of awakening to reality and tiny amount of self reflection, but still grossly deluded. Long way to go to normality. I couldn't finish reading the article, and was shaking my head constantly. Illusion of grandeur mixed with outright nonsensical ideas bordering on conspiracy theories.

Part of me, therefore, still feels proud of Brexit. Well done Britain for challenging remote oligarchs based in Brussels.

When I see this kind of statement, I am 100% sure I am dealing with either a total ignorant or a deluded person, typically it's a mixture of both. This is a big smoking gun and it's hilarious that this is said by a person identifying himself as a Tory Brexiteer, i.e. those people who are actually colluding with and are paid by actual real oligarchs to push this hard line Brexit ideology in their favour.

How much ignorant, naive or deluded one has to be to see the EU as oligarchs whilst not see the Tory hardliners actually working for oligarchs?

Irish Praetorian

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

And here is another in the media coming to their senses.

It still grates, however.. we had to travel 3 years to get to here.

Peter Oborne writes for the Daily Mail and is former chief political commentator from The Telegraph - he says: "We must swallow our pride and think again."

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/i-was-strong-brexiteer-now-we-must-swallow-our-pride-and-think-again/

It's a rather compelling piece, although it does seem symptomatic of wider problems that the third most popular comment reads along the lines of 'that's what I thought when I voted remain, glad you've caught up with me' - it's precisely the kind of smug comment that makes me want to vote Brexit.

listermint

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

It's a rather compelling piece, although it does seem symptomatic of wider problems that the third most popular comment reads along the lines of 'that's what I thought when I voted remain, glad you've caught up with me' - it's precisely the kind of smug comment that makes me want to vote Brexit.

You want kill off jobs and lower the price of your house because of a smug comment on twitter.


How foolish does that sound to you
.

Irish Praetorian

listermint wrote: »

You want kill off jobs and lower the price of your house because of a smug comment on twitter.


How foolish does that sound to you.

To me? Thoroughly foolish. But then that's the problem, I'm not a Brexit voter or even a British citizen with any kind of vote on the matter. But if there's one kernel of information I think we should assimilate from 2016 it's that a significant portion of the population is not won over by logical and factual arguments; people vote tribally, they vote for special issues and they can vote for little more than an emotional story. It's one particular lesson I can't seem to inculcate into my Remain friends living in Britain, who instead seem to retain that attitude of the 'silly proles' and their 'silly Brexit' seemingly unaware that those people have votes. And as I've said before, people don't need an air-tight logical argument when they go to the polls, if you have enough people around to muddy the water and enough emotion, you get Brexit and I fear we may end up with it again.

listermint

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

To me? Thoroughly foolish. But then that's the problem, I'm not a Brexit voter or even a British citizen with any kind of vote on the matter. But if there's one kernel of information I think we should assimilate from 2016 it's that a significant portion of the population is not won over by logical and factual arguments; people vote tribally, they vote for special issues and they can vote for little more than an emotional story. It's one particular lesson I can't seem to inculcate into my Remain friends living in Britain, who instead seem to retain that attitude of the 'silly proles' and their 'silly Brexit' seemingly unaware that those people have votes. And as I've said before, people don't need an air-tight logical argument when they go to the polls, if you have enough people around to muddy the water and enough emotion, you get Brexit and I fear we may end up with it again.

Yeah and on the other side you have brexiteers calling ordinary citizen remainers elite and the 1 percent when the facts are at odds to that.

Only way to tackle this is to tackle the sellers of lies Boris mogg and their like. Challenged on everything they say

Sam Russell

WhiteMan32 wrote: »

If Article 50 were to be revoked, would MPs be then voting for (or against) it to be RE-invoked at a later date? Also, during the period in between, might support for a second referendum gain sufficent backing by the more (up to now) reluctant MPs?

branie2 wrote: »

I don't think it can be re-invoked

Deleted User wrote: »

I see no reason why not, article 50 is still in the EU rule book.
Thre's nothing to stop the UK (or any other nation) from invoking article 50 in the future.

Just to answer this. (In my opinion).

The UK made a great play that the referendum was mandatory (when in fact it was not). The UK Supreme Court found tha Parliament must be consulted re Brexit. The EU are fully behind each state complying with their own constitutional requirements.

So putting all this together, I would think that the ECJ would find that to invoke Art 50 again, having revoked it, the UK would first have to hold a referendum, perhaps with greater oversight to prevent illegal activities by either side. Then there would have to be parliamentary approval for the actual Art 50 notification, perhaps through a full act getting both HoC and HoL approval.

This would be a high bar for Brexiteers to achieve, without bad faith charges being levied.

I think if they do revoke Art 50, it will be a long time before they talk about it again.

Strazdas

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

It's a rather compelling piece, although it does seem symptomatic of wider problems that the third most popular comment reads along the lines of 'that's what I thought when I voted remain, glad you've caught up with me' - it's precisely the kind of smug comment that makes me want to vote Brexit.

People underneath are taking issue with some of the things he says in the article but I think they are being hypercritical. The general thrust of his article is to admit that numerous things have gone wrong with Brexit and that he has changed his mind on many aspects of it. He is to be commended for that.

Mr.Wemmick

listermint wrote: »

You want kill off jobs and lower the price of your house because of a smug comment on twitter.


How foolish does that sound to you
.

But that's the whole point with Brexiteers: petulance. Why can't we just leave? We don't need this, let's get out? On and on, just childish stuff.

A few years ago, a friend's kid age 3 decided to leave home. He carried a pack of nappies down to the front door. He got as far as the front gate and then came back asked for his lunch before he went, then wanted dessert, next a nap.. that night in bed he told his Mam he will be leaving in the morning. He was 3 and a bit and harmless.. adult brexiteers have the same level of childishness; they're running the country and stupidly more dangerous.

hill16bhoy

listermint wrote: »

Yeah and on the other side you have brexiteers calling ordinary citizen remainers elite and the 1 percent when the facts are at odds to that.

Only way to tackle this is to tackle the sellers of lies Boris mogg and their like. Challenged on everything they say

Sure we have the same **** non-stop now across different countries from the deplorables.

Women going to Liverpool for abortions were suddenly "the elite" last May, gay people who had struggled for decades for their rights were the "elite" in 2015, now asylum seekers at the US border are "the elite".

Some "elites", hey?

But the millionaire and billionaire kleptocrats and conservative reactionaries, no, no, they're not the "elite", they're "anti-establishment".

I feel like every day following the news now is like watching a real life episode of Brass Eye.

Capt'n Midnight

More and more good news for May, not. Lord Buckethead was right.

Would you support the British public having the final vote on Brexit, whatever the outcome of negotiations – whether a deal is reached or not?”

Some 52 per cent of people supported a new vote, 29 per cent “strongly” and 23 per cent “somewhat”, while just 24 per cent opposed, to some degree, having another referendum. The remaining 24 per cent replied: “Don’t know.”

The government has provided only 10% of the money needed for no-deal Brexit plans at Portsmouth, according to the channel port's director.

The price of Brexit has been £66 billion so far, plus an impending recession — and it hasn't even started yet

Jaguar Land Rover to start Brexit shutdown .. and warned that a "no-deal" Brexit would cost it more than £1.2bn in profit each year.




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJzW_gFoXR0&feature=youtu.be
Corbyn wants a General Election ? - Lord Bucket head June 5 2017. Nothing has changed.

BTW if you want to take a short break from Brexit
Our only credible politician can sing too?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebzooSdAbGE

Donald Trump

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

BTW if you want to take a short break from Brexit
Our only credible politician can sing too?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebzooSdAbGE

He's no Biffo