Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

An Ciarraioch

Hilariously, Guido Fawkes is now being accused of betrayal, after concluding today that the Withdrawal Agreement is the only way to ensure Brexit:

http://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1107647248786063361

Calina

Bercow seems to be blocking MV3.

RobertKK

OMG looks like the Speaker is about to say the withdrawal agreement cannot be voted on again during this session of parliament.

Evd-Burner

RobertKK wrote: »

OMG looks like the Speaker is about to say the withdrawal agreement cannot be voted on again during this session of parliament.

Oh dear, things are going to get very interesting. No more meaningful votes unless substantial changes to the deal.

Laois_Man

He has said MV3 can only occur if it is not substantially the same as the one already rejected on March 12th

And in the process, he got a few digs in against Teresa May's using of the house to play her games!

That's the end of that!

Extension to the end of 2020 is the only path forward I can see

Headshot

It's amazing how much they keep hurting themselves. The speaker has really made things so much worse

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1107669786601967617

Infini

Headshot wrote: »

It's amazing how much they keep hurting themselves. The speaker has really made things so much worse

I dont think so. He's one of the few in that house with any common sense here and May was simply intending on repeating the same vote over and over with no changes. At least by doing so now he's putting the foot down by saying either May changes her approach ie. there needs to be a change to the red lines or Brexit is called off. Crashing out/no deal isnt an option its the final failure of parliment to its citizens.

Leroy42

Surely, since Bercow seems to be doing this based on the HoC rules, No 10 knew about this rule and they couldn't simply keep redoing the vote?

robinph

Headshot wrote: »

The speaker has really made things so much worse

Don't see how.

He's just stopping May from doing a Mrs Doyle impression, with her deal instead of a cup of tea, in the hope that MP's eventually cave in just to get her to shut up.

Frank Bullitt

Ian Dunts Twitter is a thing of beauty right now.

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1107671094360764416

Leroy42

Infini wrote: »

I dont think so. He's one of the few in that house with any common sense here and May was simply intending on repeating the same vote over and over with no changes. At least by doing so now he's putting the foot down by saying either May changes her approach ie. there needs to be a change to the red lines or Brexit is called off.

Brexit called off? Surely it means a No deal unless TM can make something different?

I also assume that getting an extension would be the next move, but with the problem that the EU will want a clear roadmap of UK intentions during the extension

Evd-Burner

Evd-Burner wrote: »

Oh dear, things are going to get very interesting. No more meaningful votes unless substantial changes to the deal.

To which the EU has said no. Checkmate it seems with regards to this deal. Can the house mobilise a cross party effort for a softer Brexit in response or is a GE now a possibility?

Peregrinus

Leroy42 wrote: »

Surely, since Bercow seems to be doing this based on the HoC rules, No 10 knew about this rule and they couldn't simply keep redoing the vote?

Yes, No. 10 knew about this rule, which has been discussed quite a bit recently, and they will have been aware that repeated Meaningful Votes would be pushing up against what is acceptable under this rule, so they will have considered the possibility that the Speaker might take the stance he has just taken, and they will (surely to God!) already have thought about what they plan to do in this eventuality.

CelticRambler

Leroy42 wrote: »

Surely, since Bercow seems to be doing this based on the HoC rules, No 10 knew about this rule and they couldn't simply keep redoing the vote?

You mean like how they knew about all the EU rules, but still kept going back to the negotiating table with half-baked proposals that flouted the rules?

There's a time and a place for thinking outside the box; this isn't one of them.

I'm reminded of this video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agZ0xISi40E

Headshot

Infini wrote: »

I dont think so. He's one of the few in that house with any common sense here and May was simply intending on repeating the same vote over and over with no changes. At least by doing so now he's putting the foot down by saying either May changes her approach ie. there needs to be a change to the red lines or Brexit is called off. Crashing out/no deal isnt an option its the final failure of parliment to its citizens.

It's made a hard brexit a much better possibility now which is very bad for Ireland

The times at the moment are extraordinary and the speaker should of given May a 3rd chance tbh. There was signs of MP's changing their mind but now that's gone tits up

Sardonicat

Headshot wrote: »

It's made a hard brexit a much better possibility now which is very bad for Ireland

The times at the moment are extraordinary and the speaker should of given May a 3rd chance tbh. There was signs of MP's changing their mind but now that's gone tits up

Everyone is engaged in brinkmanship. Never a good tactic. Never ends well for anyone.

Donald Trump

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

what repercussions ? (28th Feb??)

May losing her job ? She's already promised to step down, sort of, but if it's the will of the people I'm sure she'd stay. The party rules say she's safe for a good while yet and a lot can happen. Hammond has promised, what was it £38Bn, if there isn't a Hard Brexit , so it's back to the magic-money tree.

Nothing to do with impact to politics or political party. I'm talking about ultra brexiter scumbags on the street rioting.



Which is why I referred to a second referendum as somehow mitigating against the angle of "traitorous betrayal of the will of the people" or whatever crap you know would be used to justify it!

Akrasia

Gintonious wrote: »

Ian Dunts Twitter is a thing of beauty right now.

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1107671094360764416

Boards will have to add Ian Dunts twitter to its swear filter

maynooth_rules

Headshot wrote: »

It's made a hard brexit a much better possibility now which is very bad for Ireland

The times at the moment are extraordinary and the speaker should of given May a 3rd chance tbh. There was signs of MP's changing their mind but now that's gone tits up

They were having a gun put to their head. Time is running out, you must accept this turd of a deal. That's dreadful carry on from a PM. How disgusting to hear JRM say this morning that he hates the deal, but a bad brexit is better than staying in the EU.

Akrasia

Leroy42 wrote: »

Brexit called off? Surely it means a No deal unless TM can make something different?

I also assume that getting an extension would be the next move, but with the problem that the EU will want a clear roadmap of UK intentions during the extension

May needs to offer something different. For example, a motion calling for a confirmatory referendum between her deal or remaining in the EU

RickBlaine

May has been quite disrespectful with Parliament time over the last few months so this has finally caught up with her.

Having listened to Bercow speech, it seems to me that he is being impartial and following the spirit and guidance of Erskine May's Parliamentary Practice.

volchitsa

CelticRambler wrote: »

No the French system is FPTP hidden behind an irrelevant first round.

Tell that to Lionel Jospin.

Until now, it has always worked to keep the fight between the two major parties.

That's because that's who people wanted to actually see in power though, apparently. Unlike FPTP where the winner may well not have got a majority at all.

What it usually does is to give voters a protest vote without actually giving the "protest" party much chance of getting into power. Going by the immediate disavowal (so far anyway) at the second round, when that does happen, it seems like the French electorate actually want things to work that way.

I think it's more like giving the voters a second chance, a sort of "Are you really sure this is what you want to do?" kind of vote. FPTP doesn't do that, for good or ill.

Infini

Leroy42 wrote: »

Brexit called off? Surely it means a No deal unless TM can make something different?

I also assume that getting an extension would be the next move, but with the problem that the EU will want a clear roadmap of UK intentions during the extension

The thing is the EU need a unaminous agreement and I'll be honest I'd say a few are of mind that its better to bite the bullet now than allow it to fester till it boils over at a bad moment. Either they leave without a deal or abandon Brexit but no more evading the problem of their own creation. The UK government is being utterly incompentent and too many refuse to own the responsibilith of their actions. They need to own their problem not blame the EU for their failures.

The question here is that if theres no agreement will the HoC decide to crash out or abandon Brexit thats the decision that needs to be put to them.

PropJoe10

Headshot wrote: »

It's amazing how much they keep hurting themselves. The speaker has really made things so much worse

Not in my view. He's simply adhering to parliamentary rules. It is discourteous to keep pushing the same deal to parliament over and over again. Bercow is there to facilitate parliament and fair and worthwhile debate, not to pander to the wishes of the government and Theresa May.

Laois_Man

Leroy42 wrote: »

Surely, since Bercow seems to be doing this based on the HoC rules, No 10 knew about this rule and they couldn't simply keep redoing the vote?

It is a rule from the year 1604 and was last invoked 107 years ago

So maybe they didn't know at all

Capt'n Midnight

Leroy42 wrote: »

Surely, since Bercow seems to be doing this based on the HoC rules, No 10 knew about this rule and they couldn't simply keep redoing the vote?

It's not a rule , more of a guideline. Because no written constitution. But a precedent from 500 years ago has influence in the UK. More red lines.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47614074

He told the Commons that parliamentary conventions dating back to 1604 meant MPs could not be asked to vote on precisely the same subject twice.

Akrasia

[Deleted User] wrote: »

To which the EU has said no. Checkmate it seems with regards to this deal. Can the house mobilise a cross party effort for a softer Brexit in response or is a GE now a possibility?

Doesnt have to be a different deal, just a different motion. Has to be different in substance and not just window dressing. Attaching a referendum to the WA would be different enough to allow another vote.

Also, there is the possibility that parliament could be suspended for 3 days and then there would be a new session where the same motion could be voted on again

Peregrinus

Leroy42 wrote: »

Brexit called off? Surely it means a No deal unless TM can make something different?

Not necessarily. Apart from the obvious if unlikely alternative of revoking A50, there is also Plan C, which looks like this:
1. Prorogue parliament for general election
2. Campaign for mandate to leave on deal negotiated with EU
3. Win election due to parlous condition of Labour party
4. New parliament; new session. MV3 can be put. Almost certainly can give 2 fingers to DUP. Manifesto commitment to implement May's deal. Highly likely to pass.

Weak point of plan is of course step 3, which cannot be guaranteed. But worth a punt, all the same, and certainly looks like best prospect for getting May's plan through.

Leroy42 wrote: »

I also assume that getting an extension would be the next move, but with the problem that the EU will want a clear roadmap of UK intentions during the extension

For roadmap, see above. EU will like, because even if plan doesn't come off they get to deal with different British government, which can't possibly be a more gruesome experience than dealing with the present on.