Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

I wonder if Macron is playing the "difficult one" role again ?

Pushing for things like a super short extension or the loss of all commissioners for the duration for the extension etc.

By doing this he makes the other options more palatable , it also allows him to play hardball for the home audience.

BarryD2

Will the EU and the Brit Lab party allow themselves to be sucked into the maelstrom of division that characterises the Tories? Used and spat out as reasons for not agreeing anything. You'd have to think that both will desperately be trying to avoid this - how do you throw it back at the Tories and make them sort it out? Probably by a short extension - a final ultimatum. Then they'll either have to swallow and go for May's deal or revoke as no deal is off the table?

Anteayer

The biggest mistake they could make is assuming the Tories are rational or that may has any control of the party or mandate at all.

FrancieBrady

Macron being difficult.

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1116070875927859201

Hurrache

(Edit, ha ha. Compare and contrast mine and the posts above take.)

No surprises that apparently the documents put forward by the UK are light on detail or intent
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1116070875927859201?s=19


https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1116070001415467008?s=19

FrancieBrady

Ian Dunt predicting a 3am finish. :eek:

Strazdas

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Ian Dunt predicting a 3am finish. :eek:

That would suggested heated discussions and a fair bit of disagreement in the room

ThePanjandrum

I don't know if it's been mentioned here but the Daily Telegraph is saying that the French are briefing that if Ireland is collateral damage for a Brexit on WTO terms, that's a price worth paying.

Kalyke

I think some in the EU are trying to force TM to revoke Article 50.

Spanish Eyes

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I don't know if it's been mentioned here but the Daily Telegraph is saying that the French are briefing that if Ireland is collateral damage for a Brexit on WTO terms, that's a price worth paying.

Well the DT would say that wouldn't they? Last sting of a dying wasp.

There could be an element of power play between France and Germany here, and also Macron has one hand behind his back WRT Far Right in France too.

I honestly don't know, just thinking out loud really, but I would be very surprised if France actually does veto a long extension. But we shall see.

Enzokk

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I don't know if it's been mentioned here but the Daily Telegraph is saying that the French are briefing that if Ireland is collateral damage for a Brexit on WTO terms, that's a price worth paying.

That doesn't make sense when no-deal will hurt us the most but other countries will be damaged as well. We will have to see how it plays out and if we are thrown to the wolves tonight, or if there is the possibility of no-deal the EU steps in to help us avert as much damage as possible.

This seems to be the state of play at some point in the evening,

https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1116085295794073600

I don't see how the EU Council will get long delay through if only 17 are for a long delay. You needed that to be closer to the 27 that you need for unanimity for that to pass.

Infini

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I don't know if it's been mentioned here but the Daily Telegraph is saying that the French are briefing that if Ireland is collateral damage for a Brexit on WTO terms, that's a price worth paying.

Would take anything from the Telegraph, Mail or Express with a dumptruck of salt to be fair I don't trust the reliability of information from those publications specifically.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Macron being difficult.

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1116070875927859201

Maybe he's just being the cynic in the room of course but he's not without reason. The Tories have poisoned the well pretty badly with their attitude and their utter disrespect and spite for everyone in the EU over the last 3 years. There's good reason for the likes of france to feel it's better to throw out the trash now rather than let it fester longer even if it's damaging.

Ultimately of course what it might come down is this: Is it better to let this drag on for the rest of the year, give the Brit's one final chance to get their act together or is it better to cut them loose now and just deal with the consequences now rather than later when it's potentially more difficult.

An Ciarraioch

Politico saying the second round of talks has just started, so looks like a long night!

Hurrache

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I don't know if it's been mentioned here but the Daily Telegraph is saying that the French are briefing that if Ireland is collateral damage for a Brexit on WTO terms, that's a price worth paying.

Hasn't been a single mention of that anywhere, and it doesn't make much sense.

Westernyelp

Hurrache wrote: »

Hasn't been a single mention of that anywhere, and it doesn't make much sense.

Probably because it was dreamt up by Thepanjandrum

Itssoeasy

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Politico saying the second round of talks has just started, so looks like a long night!

Christ. So 23:45 Brussels and the second round is only starting. The way this is going morning Ireland may go on air at 7am and there might not have an answer.

Infini

Hurrache wrote: »

Hasn't been a single mention of that anywhere, and it doesn't make much sense.

Honestly I'd agree. The EU's been pretty clear they'll stand by Ireland in all of this after all this ultimately down to the pure incompetence of British Politics at the end of the day. If I had to take a guess I'd say they might lean towards whether it's better to cut Britain loose and give as much support to Ireland as possible to help mitigate as much of the damage as possible, after all at the end of the day if they leave now the issues around the WA wont just go away if anything the Brits will be in no position in a post crashout scenario to reject anything the EU demands if they do crash out.

Enzokk

The Guardian front page tomorrow,

https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1116086438590853120

So May wants to stay on and deliver Brexit. So that would mean if there is a long delay then she will be leader for a long time and that would not sit well with the ERG. So will the likes of Mark Francois eat their pride and vote for her deal to get rid of her? And if they do, will she offer Labour enough to get their support to get the deal through?

I don't see how she achieves this without crashing out, she cannot get her deal through without possibly splitting her party and if she conceded to Labour that they support her deal but offer a confirmatory referendum then they may not leave so surely she will not go for this.

So crash out if she wants to ensure her legacy is Brexit?

Anteayer

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I don't know if it's been mentioned here but the Daily Telegraph is saying that the French are briefing that if Ireland is collateral damage for a Brexit on WTO terms, that's a price worth paying.

To be quite honest, I don't know why anyone takes these rumours that are exclusively reported by the right leaning and Eurosceptic elements of the British press seriously.

There's been a persisting expectation that Ireland will be thrown under the bus, yet this never materialises as anything other than UK right wing fantasy.

boggerman1

Kate hoey on newsnight is one nasty piece of work.

Infini

boggerman1 wrote: »

Kate hoey on newsnight is one nasty piece of work.

To be fair there's quite a few MP's over there who've done nothing but make this worse simply because they're either too incompetent or unfit for the job. She's certainly no Labour MP in practise and I'm suprised someone like her is even still a part of that party.

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Christ. So 23:45 Brussels and the second round is only starting. The way this is going morning Ireland may go on air at 7am and there might not have an answer.

To be honest it's probably less an issue of not having an answer but I'd say the real debate in that room right now is at what point is it that the UK should be removed from the EU because they've become too much of a liability. I would be honest the Tories are unfit and aren't going to be able to agree to anything on their own they've too many pseudo-kipper infiltrators muddying up the place.

I honestly think that some might feel unless the UK either Have a GE or Revoke A50 or have a 2nd Referendum their removal may become a necessary Evil at some point simply because they've made too much of a mess for the EU to be able to clean up anymore.

Capt'n Midnight

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I don't know if it's been mentioned here but the Daily Telegraph is saying that the French are briefing that if Ireland is collateral damage for a Brexit on WTO terms, that's a price worth paying.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-parliaments-47855440 (note I'm surprised they are allowed stay up so late normally that page shuts down around now )

Telegraph says Tories will move against May. She's been given a month

Meanwhile the Express and Guardian say May will Stay till Brexit done and iNews says May will stay for a year


And the Metro has this
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/624/cpsprodpb/vivo/live/images/2019/4/10/1d953510-e954-486b-9fdf-d15e5ad9971b.jpg



Katya saying this , my highlight twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1116088511717937158?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1116088511717937158&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.com%2Fnews%2Flive%2Fuk-politics-parliaments-47855440
While 17 EU leaders in favour of longer #Brexit extension, France is refusing to countenance anything beyond 30 June at the moment. At least 4 other countries in favour of extension cut-off to be the autumn NB EU leaders need to reach unanimity by law


Long night , but speaking of things that could crash and burn, SpaceX should be launching Falcon Heavy at about 1am. Unless they require another extension.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ecpUjam6byA

Enzokk

Here is a tweet that contradicts my earlier thinking, maybe a long extension will be the result if this is closer to the truth,

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1116099508281184261

France may be isolated in their stance so an agreement looks to be in reach.

Headshot

Enzokk wrote: »

Here is a tweet that contradicts my earlier thinking, maybe a long extension will be the result if this is closer to the truth,

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1116099508281184261

France may be isolated in their stance so an agreement looks to be in reach.

The Greeks make a good point but my worry is about negative influences as MEPs

Infini

Headshot wrote: »

The Greeks make a good point but my worry is about negative influences as MEPs

The influences aren't a certainty. They might be concerned about a rise in headbangers getting elected but one has to point to the Headbangerteers to get the point across that people who promise the world are usually just lying to you and your better getting competent people to represent you. Greeks have made a pretty solid point though, by making the British hold the EU elections it really puts the heat on the Brexiteers and their utter lies as to WHY "One does not simply, leave the EU"

Enzokk wrote: »

Here is a tweet that contradicts my earlier thinking, maybe a long extension will be the result if this is closer to the truth,

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1116099508281184261

France may be isolated in their stance so an agreement looks to be in reach.

To be fair the French so far have really been the only one's who have leaned towards outright kicking out the Brit's. I think the other's want to see how this pans out more and see if they can just grind down the idiot's who have lied and scammed their way into causing such a mess. Really all the EU needs is to set conditions that the UK won't dare break in order to prevent them being chucked out. The like's of Moggles have ironically suffered a case of foot in mouth disease as by calling for MEP's in the UK to disrupt everything they've just given the EU ammunition to turn the vice tighter on them by making disrupting the EU institutions a "bannable offence".

FrancieBrady

White smoke imminent?

https://twitter.com/aqbyrne/status/1116103159527739393

brendanwalsh

What's the latest

prawnsambo

Looking like 31st October. Another Halloween nightmare.

10000maniacs

Tory David Campbell Bannerman still spouting on about GATT Article 24 on Newsnight tonight.
Why would the EU even consider an interim agreement without a withdrawal agreement & backstop?
And why would the WTO membership not complain about it and demand substantial changes?
Its just astonishing that these guys can be so naïve.

Tikki Wang Wang

Delay to Oct 31