Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Macron was apparently "starkly alone" in the discussion and lost the respect of many diplomats according to the Guardian. Will be interesting if more comes out about that.

Can't believe this is gonna drag on until October. It feels like a messy amount of time. I guess Tory-Labour compromise can end for a while, and May will probably be replaced by some Brexiteer.

Might seem like a long time but the MP Sarah Wollaston is tweeting that a minimum of 24 weeks is needed to organise a date for another referendum, so the window is tight enough if 31 October is a date set in stone. But considering this is Brexit and nothings certain, who knows.....

Larbre34

I said to people the morning of the referendum result that Brexit wouldn't happen, the permanent Govt in Whitehall would turn their not inconsiderable might against it and that would be that.

Today was the day I always expected. It might take another election or more likely now a second referendum on a version of the crap deal, just for optics and to make it official, but forget Halloween as being significant, within 2 or 3 months it will already be as redundant a milestone as 29/03 or 12/04.

The consequences of the UK leaving the EU, i.e. a massive loss of influence, involvement and economic activity and really the probable end of the UK as an entity are now clear, the rest is just political back peddling to save a few skins.

Laois_Man

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I would not put too much stock in a UK papers take on what happens at EU level.

Indeed....and there was a couple of subtle digs at the UK press at that press conference.

Which of course will go completely unreported in the UK.....or completely over their heads maybe!

Anteayer

Just watched the Juncker & Tusk press conference really just saying what we've already heard. Extension to 31 October and they're going to be full members until then, including normal voting rights and caused huge costs, including changes to infrastructure and recruitment of public service staff.

A reporter asked a question about if it would be possible for the UK to request a further extension in October and they basically didn't seem to have any serious response other than that they trust the UK to respect the rules of the EU.

It doesn't look like this will be a final deadline and the UK can probably keep extending it by the sounds of things.

It looks like we are going to be bored to death of Brexit.

What annoys me is that even with this outcome, they've caused massive disruption to business, frightened people who have had to make decisions to change jobs and move and so on and caused untold stress and upheaval to large numbers of EU and UK citizens.

It's been an absolute mess and an extremely expensive one.

The psychodrama will now continue for months!

Peregrinus

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So if there is a deal for an extension then why have the text not being forthcoming an hour after Donald tusk tweeted there is a deal ? Is there been a fly in the soup ?

No, this is normal. This isn't a press release or a communique; it's a decision fo the European Council which will have legal effect, so drafting requires care. Commission officials produce a draft which is approved by EuCo president and then (in this case) presented as a draft to the UK, who consult their lawyers and may suggest tweaks to the text, which then get hammered out in conference, and finally the whole thing gets signed off by EuCo President. Everyone is in the building and it all happens fairly quickly but, still, it takes a bit of time.

Nody

The interesting part will be to see how car manufacturers etc. will react; great extension to 31st October but they already built up stock (along with other manufacturers) which now needs to be worked down again but are they all going to be willing to build up the stock again come October? Will they plan another plant closure? I think this has thrown a big wrench into many contingency plans and it will be interesting to see how things will play out (for example those 116 million of additional ferry capacity until May is now wasted; will they retender for October?).

otnomart

A 31 October exit is such a bad compromise,
It means no time for a second referendum and a repeat of what just happened since the WA was finalised last Dec.
A 12 months extension would have been so much better.

A bad compromise all driven by the Frenc Prez trying to salvage its party's performance at the European elections - by the way.

Calina

So Macron is the new target of ire, replacing the backstop, the divorce bill and Leo Varadkar.

The UK created this mess. Still lacks the self awareness to accept it.

Six months is enough to organise a referendum. It is more than adequate for an election. I wonder if Corbyn is planning for another vote of no confidence.

Peregrinus

otnomart wrote: »

A 31 October exit is such a bad compromise,
It means no time for a second referendum and a repeat of what just happened since the WA was finalised last Dec.
A 12 months extension would have been so much better.

A bad compromise all driven by the Frenc Prez trying to salvage its party's performance at the European elections - by the way.

It's a compromise, obviously, but not necessarily a bad one. It's not long enough for a second referendum, but it is long enough for a bit of a breather - much-needed, I think - followed by a conversation that comes to the conclusion that a second referendum is the way to go. And if the UK does get around to committing to a second referendum, I cannot see EuCo refusing a further extension to accommodate that.

What it's not long enough for is a Tory leadership contest, followed by enough time for the new true-Brexit-believer leader to reopen withdrawal negotiations and secure a new deal with no backstop and no temporary customs union. That was never going to happen, of course, no matter how long an extension was granted, but a long extension might have allowed Brexiters to continue to cherish the delusion that it could happen, and so avoid making any choices between the deliverable outcomes.

Shelga

The UK was told it would have to present a credible plan for a long term extension, which they did not do.

With that in mind, 6 months seems like a reasonably good outcome. It might focus the minds more than a 12 month one. With a year long one, I think Brexit would leave the agenda, slip down the headlines, be relatively forgotten about until autumn. With a 6 month deadline, aren’t they kind of forced to make certain decisions much quicker- ie general election, 2nd referendum etc, as the window for these is tight.

otnomart

12 months would have been much better for us (the EU) to take Brexit off our agenda for a while and focus on our other priorities.
It was what the majority of the EU 27 wanted last night.

First Up

otnomart wrote:

12 months would have been much better for us (the EU) to take Brexit off our agenda for a while and focus on our other priorities. It was what the majority of the EU 27 wanted last night.

But Macron has a point. This has to end one way or another and six months is more than enough time for the UK to decide what it wants; if that involves the disintegration of the Tories and re-alignment of British party politics, then so be it.

Its also enough time for businesses to get their house in order on supply chain logistics.

swampgas

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

They [France & Germany] could be playing good cop bad cop with UK

Once again the EU are demonstrating that a group of 27 with different opinions, interests and priorities can come to a consensus. The UK press love to report on the divisions between the various EU countries, while seeming oblivious to the fact that regardless of their differences the EU leaders usually manage to settle on an agreed position.

France has not vetoed the extension, for example. I'm not sure that the UK, in a similar position, would have been so considerate to its fellow members.

Zubeneschamali

Calina wrote: »

So Macron is the new target of ire, replacing the backstop, the divorce bill and Leo Varadkar..

Why would they be angry with Macron? He was the only one who wanted to give the UK what they requested.

Enzokk

The date was chosen as the new EU Commission will start their work on the 1st November and Tusk will be replaced around that time as well. So while we would have preferred a longer extension it does make sense for the date chosen.

This however is not set in stone and a further extension can always be agreed and we can always be in Brexit purgatory for all eternity.

Akrasia

What are the EUs conditions for allowing the extension (other than eu parl elections?)

Akrasia

I can see a tory full scale civil war this week. The only way to now get a no deal it seems is to prevent the UK from holding EU elections and that would require ousting TM and all kinds of subterfuge to throw a spanner in the works

Peregrinus

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

They could be playing good cop bad cop with UK

You can't play good cop, bad cop, when you have to come to a consensus or collective decision.

No, they really are arguing among themselves. Macron (and others) have reasons for preferring a short extension; Merkel (and others) have reasons for preferring a long extension; and they all have to deal with the fact that they disagree.

But what's striking here is the way they negotiate their differences. They meet; they talk; they listen to one another (this bit is key); they hammer it out; there's a bit of give and take; they arrive at a decision everyone can live with, which may (as this time) involve split-the-difference compromise, or may involve some people giving some desire or ambition in the interests of arriving at a common position. The EU -27 have done this again and again throughout the Brexit process.

What's really, really striking, though, is that within the UK the contending factions seem absolutely incapable of doing this, or even of recognising the process when it's demonstrated for them by the EU-27. Every time this happens, the UK press are full of stories about the EU being about to splinter; someone-or-other is going to ride to the rescue of Brexit and force the EU to give Britain what it is entitled to; Ireland is about to be thrown under a bus; yadda, yadda. No, guys, you're misreading this completely. This isn't splintering and division; this is how collective, collaborative, consensus decision-making works. You need to learn how to do this.

Patser

The European elections are going to be chaotic in the UK. They're going to turn in to effectively a 2nd referendum anyway.

You'll have TIG and Lib Dems standing on a pro EU ticket, Labour arguing amongst themselves but mostly pro EU.

The Tories will be tearing themselves apart, with Farages Brexit party and UKIP also scrapping.

If there's a large pro EU vote, maybe they can show a desire for 2nd referendum and Labour will fall fully in behind it.

But a disaster for Tories would have to mean end of May, infighting and lots more wasted time.

Peregrinus

Akrasia wrote: »

What are the EUs conditions for allowing the extension (other than eu parl elections?)

There are several:

- "This further extension cannot be allowed to undermine the regular functioning of the EU and its institutions."

- The UK will remain a member state until withdrawal, with full rights and obligations (including, as you point out, the obligation to conduct elections).

- The UK commits to act in a constructive and responsible manner throughout the extennsion period in accordance with the duty of sincere co-operation

- The UK is expected to fulfil this commitment, and its Treaty obligations generally, in a manner that reflects its situation as a withdrawing member state.

- The UK will facilitate the acheivement of the Union's tasks and refrain from any measure which could jeopardise the attainment of the Union's objectives.

- There will be no re-opening of the Withdrawal Agreement. The UK will not make unilateral commitments, statements or acts incompatiable with the letter and spirit of the WA. The UK will not hamper the implementation of the WA.

- The extension will not be used to negotiate the future relationship

- EuCo will review progress in June 2019.

ambro25

Patser wrote: »

The European elections are going to be chaotic in the UK. They're going to turn in to effectively a 2nd referendum anyway.

You'll have TIG and Lib Dems standing on a pro EU ticket, Labour arguing amongst themselves but mostly pro EU.

The Tories will be tearing themselves apart, with Farages Brexit party and UKIP also scrapping.

If there's a large pro EU vote, maybe they can show a desire for 2nd referendum and Labour will fall fully in behind it.

But a disaster for Tories would have to mean end of May, infighting and lots more wasted time.

Let's not forget that, unlike the 2016 referendum, resident EU27 do get to vote for their British MEP.

All 3-ish millions of them, in that particular PR (not FPTP) balance.

After how they've been treated over the last 3 years.

Itssoeasy

So I see junker and tusk gave a press conference but did Theresa May give one at some point over night ?

Bigus

Will this cause a bit of displeasure on UK MPs , by forcing them to cancel their summer recess and holidays ? Or would they be stupid enough to take a break anyway ?

Perhaps this Is , A little bit of personal pain and payback for all the upset in Brussels and elsewhere in Europe.

Roger_007

I was just thinking that if it was Ireland, (or any other 'small' country), that was behaving like the Brits, they would have long since been booted out the EU door and told not to come back anytime soon.
The EU have been far too lenient with the UK. They should be thinking far more about the long term good of the EU and not the short term damage that the UK can do, and are doing.

FrancieBrady

Where is Farage standing as an MEP or has he decided yet?

A few high profile Brexiteers losing their seats now would be great.

circadian

Roger_007 wrote: »

I was just thinking that if it was Ireland, (or any other 'small' country), that was behaving like the Brits, they would have long since been booted out the EU door and told not to come back anytime soon.
The EU have been far too lenient with the UK. They should be thinking far more about the long term good of the EU and not the short term damage that the UK can do, and are doing.

Dragging it out serves a good purpose for the EU. There are a number of populist anti EU movements around Europe with varying support. This entire fiasco is a word of warning to anyone else thinking about leaving. This is how difficult it is to get it right, is it worth putting yourself thriught this?

Peregrinus

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Where is Farage standing as an MEP or has he decided yet?

A few high profile Brexiteers losing their seats now would be great.

Farage currently sits for South East England, and presumably will seek election there again.

In 2014, UKIP won 32% of the vote and returned four MEPs (only one of whom still sits for UKIP). This time round the pro-Brexit vote will be split between UKIP and the Brexit Party, and it could of course be a bit less than 32% - we'll see. But if the Brexit Party can muster at least 10% of the vote, it will return an MEP, and that MEP will be Farage. To my lasting regret, I don't think he's likely to lose his seat.

Zubeneschamali

Bigus wrote: »

Or would they be stupid enough to take a break anyway ?

Of course they will take their holidays - every single day of them. The pressure is off now, they won't even think about Brexit until 1st October. May won't move the ball, because she will hope it comes down, next October, to her deal vs. No Deal, yet again - it is her only plan.

Wait and see, at next PMQs, Corbyn wil be asking about primary schools in Dorset or something.

Brexit is not the cause of their problems, it is a symptom.

lawred2

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I am neither a brexiter nor someone who is British, not sure why you are attacking me with the bolded bit.

That wasn't aimed at you.

FrancieBrady

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Of course they will take their holidays - every single day of them. The pressure is off now, they won't even think about Brexit until 1st October. May won't move the ball, because she will hope it comes down, next October, to her deal vs. No Deal, yet again - it is her only plan.

Wait and see, at next PMQs, Corbyn wil be asking about primary schools in Dorset or something.

Brexit is not the cause of their problems, it is a symptom.

Wouldn't be that pessimistic. There is the prospect of the EU elections which is a platform for pro EUer's to get the message out about what the EU actually is and what the benefits are. If it turns a few more doubting Brexiters, that is a good thing.

Farage and Co. will have difficulty lying or at least, they should have, if the pro EU lobby can get their **** together.

I'm actually looking forward to the NI EU elections, should be plenty of fireworks and a decent look at how the land is lying.