Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha

CelticRambler wrote: »

From this side of the Channel, there's a much simpler explanation for Macron's stance: under his stewardship, France's economy is finally getting back on its feet. What the country really needs now is an influx of new business and new investment, and the best place to steal that from is a Brexited UK. Forget all this leprechaun nonsense about Ireland having a huge advantage being the only English-speaking country in the EU - the serious business centres in France can converse in English just as well as anyone from Dublin, Cork or Galway. Even in the middle of nowhere (e.g. where I live!) many jobs are advertised with the obligatory criterion "good level of English essential".

My housemate made an argument that Macron's insistence on 6 months is to both give the UK breathing space and apply pressure to them to come round to a People's Vote.

If on the other hand he is hoping to enrich France at the UK's expense, there are complications. It means throwing another EU member state, Ireland to the dogs as well as bloodying the noses of others, most notably Denmark and the Netherlands. Then there are the millions of migrants in the UK. A lot of people will lose out. I'm not saying that this is the case of course but he will make enemies in Europe over this. Merkel is in her last term and won't be doing much to impede this.

CelticRambler

BarryD2 wrote: »

I think the EU are/were trying to strike a balance between giving the UK enough time to come to an agreed solution and getting sucked into the poison chamber of Tory politics.

So the EU leaders couldn't reasonably just say 'be gone on Friday' as too close, so had to be some sort of extension. I thought they might go for a shorter one than they did on basis of what you say - the next few months could easily be eaten up in procrastination & recrimination. At least a short extension would have focused the mind and put it up to the UK at the outside risk of a No Deal, which the HoC don't want. Macron saw it.

The EU was never going to get sucked into Tory politics. BUT what we've seen over the last month or so is the EU doing what the EU does best: looking out for its members' interests. All of its members - even those that have turned into political basket cases.

For more than a year, we've heard speculation about whether or not Ireland would be thrown under the bus. Well, here we are now at the point of a second extension and not only has Ireland not been thrown under the bus, but the EU has gone out of its way to show that it won't throw the UK under the bus either, no matter how big the lies painted on the side.

The poor old bus is going to need years of therapy after all these threats of who's next to be thrown under it, but if there's one group that's still being pushed towards the kerb, its the DUP. They've pissed in the Westminster drinking trough and everyone knows it. TM desperately needs her deal to pass, and the only person who can help her with that now is Jeremy Corbyn. With the ERG effectively emasculated, TM's political life expectancy depends on what promise she's most prepared to break, and JC's support for an Irish Sea border makes it a heck of a lot easier for him to achieve the kind of Brexit he wants.

I reckon we could yet see a TM-JC memorandum of understanding being brought to the EU by the end of June, with a polite request to have the original NI-only backstop reinstated ...

josip

Leroy42 wrote: »

It really quite staggering that so little is being raised about this.

There are food banks and schools are having to close early on Fridays to save money and TM wasted all this money on a game of chicken?

I don't disagree that there would have been better uses for the money, but it all wouldn't have been wasted.
Just the very act of spending that money will boost some aspects of the domestic economy, eg increased employment and subsequent spending of salaries.
It mightn't have been as good a use of the money as some needed piece of infrastructure but not a total waste.
Then again, I think they're committed to spending the millions on the extra ferries over the summer :rolleyes:

Anteayer

CelticRambler wrote: »

From this side of the Channel, there's a much simpler explanation for Macron's stance: under his stewardship, France's economy is finally getting back on its feet. What the country really needs now is an influx of new business and new investment, and the best place to steal that from is a Brexited UK. Forget all this leprechaun nonsense about Ireland having a huge advantage being the only English-speaking country in the EU - the serious business centres in France can converse in English just as well as anyone from Dublin, Cork or Galway. Even in the middle of nowhere (e.g. where I live!) many jobs are advertised with the obligatory criterion "good level of English essential".

Well, there's been some impact on unemployment rates, down to 8.8% but the growth rates are still very poor 0.3% in Q4 2018, and 1.6% overall during 2018.

I'd be quite familiar with a lot of the ebbs and flows of where businesses are intending to head and while France has done OK, it is certainly not likely to 'steal business' in a big way and that's largely down to a perception of the business environment and the barrage of images of violent protests that have been on business news channels for quite some time now.

The big net beneficiaries have been Frankfurt, Dublin, Luxembourg and cities in the Benelux. Paris has largely taken companies that have big profiles in Paris already or in some cases where Paris is seen as an alternative to London in terms of its scale. By all accounts, Paris is probably hitting well below its weight at the moment.

As a financial centre, Frankfurt is by far and away the destination of choice.

Ireland's also doing very well in terms of mid-sized UK companies making a move as the language, business and regulatory environment is almost identical to the UK. A move to Dublin is about as traumatic as a move to Edinburgh or Glasgow.

It's far from leprechaun economics. It's an attractive place to do business from, particularly if you're an English speaking company and there are enormous advantages in terms of accounting and legal system similarities and so on.

In terms of English fluency you're looking at native speakers in Ireland and flawless, often accent-free and totally fluent English in the Benelux and Germany.

If his motive was to 'steal business' by crashing the UK out, it's actually likely to have enormous benefits for Ireland, the Benelux and Germany in terms of fleeing businesses. It could even end up driving some US investment into the UK back to the States too. There's already some of that going on in the pharma sector from US multinationals where R&D has shifted back home. However, it comes with vast risks to the EU economy.

If the UK is going to leave, a managed exit is *FAR* preferable for the EU members than a sudden crash out. The consequences could be a financial event like 2008. The last thing the world needs right now is a big, systemic economic shock. There are serious issues with fragility in markets around the world, instability due to erratic and unpredictable American trade policies due to Trump, slowing growth in China and so on.

It would be incredibly short sighted to attempt to funnel business out of the UK and in so doing to trigger a major market shock. While the EU's big and fairly well buffered, it's not going to do anyone any good to have a total mess and I think that pragmatism prevailed at that meeting last night / this morning.

The UK may be opting to throw away its own economy, but it's a very dangerous game to actively work towards a crash out.

CelticRambler

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

My housemate made an argument that Macron's insistence on 6 months is to both give the UK breathing space and apply pressure to them to come round to a People's Vote.

Hmmmm ... well, if "sources" can be believed (I haven't heard him speak directly on the subject) he wanted them gone tomorrow! The extra 6 months was quite a compromise on his part. Apart from picking up extra business and investment, I do believe that he wants the Brexit story terminated because it's tainting his other (European) ambitions. Outside of political circles, Brexit is just not news over here, except as a joke between international colleagues, or an item of small-talk on the dancefloor. :cool:

Charles Babbage

Deleted User wrote: »

In normal referendums, such as abortion or gay marriage, there is no reason to assume that people will change their minds since the result of their vote is a known quantity..

In Ireland, the outcome of the referendum is a known quantity as the proposals are spelt out in detail before the referendum and the slogan "if you don't know, vote no" means that the citizens will not vote for a blank cheque.



In Brexit there was no plan and the voters were not responsible enough to insist that there should be one before they should be expected to vote for it.

Anteayer

CelticRambler wrote: »

There's so much misunderstanding of French politics in those two paragraphs, that it's almost worthy of a "fake news" label! First of all: Macron's 27% popularity is indeed "whopping" - the highest he's ever scored, thanks to his intelligent handling of the gilets jaunes, and 3 percentage points higher than he polled in the presidential election.

Secondly, while 47% of French people say that they can imagine a scenario whereby Marine Le Pen achieves a meaningful role in parliament, that doesn't mean they want it to happen. Her new "it's a movement, not a party" party is only neck-and-neck in the polls (less so since last weekend's debate) insofar as it relates to the first round. In other words, exactly the same as last time out, and the time before, and the time before that. France's first-two-past-the-post system means that her xenophoic racist bigotted candidates have to attract support from all their natural enemies to win the second round, whereas Macron's lot only have to attract everyone who hates Marine Le Pen (which is about 60-70% of the electorate).
".

All I would say is that go back to 2015, and Brexit seemed utterly inconceivable and we all assumed Hillary Clinton was going to be the US president. I would be extremely wary of where French populism is going at the moment and as much as I dislike Le Pen, she's a very capable political operator who is pushing all of the hope and fear buttons of a significant % of the population, much like Brexiteers and Trump have done.

The two round voting system will probably keep her out of serious power, but it’ll be interesting see what happens in the European elections in a few weeks time.

I sincerely hope she’s being tackled head on in France in a way Trump and the lies that fed Brexit weren’t in the US and U.K.

robindch

Akrasia wrote: »

The most expensive bluff in modern political history

Never in the field of oneupmanship was so much spent by so few for so little.

trashcan

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I was criticizing Macron, not you.

CelticRambler wrote: »

I reckon we could yet see a TM-JC memorandum of understanding being brought to the EU by the end of June, with a polite request to have the original NI-only backstop reinstated ...

Oh God, can't you just imagine Arlenes and Sammys heads exploding if that were to come to pass.

Hurrache

An apt time for him to finish up I suppose, but he'll be missed.
[url]

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1116452142729052160?s=19[/url]

Anteayer

trashcan wrote: »

Oh God, can't you just imagine Arlenes and Sammys heads exploding if that were to come to pass.

Well, they're grossly overestimating the relevance of Northern Ireland to English Brexiteers and English politics in general.

It's also worth remembering that the British Government is probably more committed to the Good Friday Agreement, as a signatory, than it would be to the DUP who attempted to undermine it every step of the way. As short sighted as the Tories have been, May and the more serious members of cabinet have genuinely drawn the line at smashing up the GFA.

From a political point of view, the DUP and the Tories are not natural bedfellows. The current Tories (with one notable exception) are *far* more liberal on social issues like marriage equality, LGBT rights, secularism, abortion and so on, but they're also neoliberal on economics.

The DUP takes a bible belt American view of social issues, which would be absolutely alien to most English people, and they've far more big-spending, big state and pro-welfare stance than the Tories.

Other than the the DUP are useful for parliamentary arithmetic, the Tories basically have nothing in common with them on almost any substantive policy issue. They're not even pursing Brexit for the same reasons.

Brinigng Northern Ireland sectarian politics into the middle of Brexit was an absolutely ridiculous thing to have done!

feargale

mazwell wrote: »

But if there was a no deal Brexit can they just rejoin the EU or would they have to be approved

There is a real problem for the UK if they leave and ever seek to rejoin in that they will have to contend with Spain and Gibraltar.

Scoondal

Let's give UK another six months to destroy their economy and social order. When will the riots begin ? Well done EU.

Peregrinus

CelticRambler wrote: »

. . . Brexit is just not news over here, except as a joke between international colleagues, or an item of small-talk on the dancefloor. :cool:

I'm a Brexit tragic, but even I struggle to see Brexit-talk as an effective pick-up line.

Inquitus

CelticRambler wrote: »

From this side of the Channel, there's a much simpler explanation for Macron's stance: under his stewardship, France's economy is finally getting back on its feet. What the country really needs now is an influx of new business and new investment, and the best place to steal that from is a Brexited UK. Forget all this leprechaun nonsense about Ireland having a huge advantage being the only English-speaking country in the EU - the serious business centres in France can converse in English just as well as anyone from Dublin, Cork or Galway. Even in the middle of nowhere (e.g. where I live!) many jobs are advertised with the obligatory criterion "good level of English essential".

This is nonsense, Ireland is an immeasurably better place to do business than France, easier to hire and fire, more business friendly, better educated workforce, etc. etc.

Scoondal

Scoondal wrote: »

Let's give UK another six months to destroy their economy and social order. When will the riots begin ? Well done EU.

They can leave any time, just up to them to actually make a decision.

kuro68k

Anteayer wrote: »

Well, they're grossly overestimating the relevance of Northern Ireland to English Brexiteers and English politics in general.

Brexiteers see NI in the following terms:

- Threat to the Tory party if violence returns

- DUP voted needed for a majority

- All to be sacrificed the nanosecond it looks like a hard brexit is possible some other way

Shelga

Just found this clip, from Newsnight before the referendum:
https://youtu.be/Z6LVNpfES8k

It’s Andrea Leadsom and Pascal Lamy debating the benefits/negatives of trade in a post-Brexit world.

She’s just so arrogant, and just constantly trots out “5th largest economy” rather than actually listening to the man who was Director General of the WTO for 8 years, who says Britain will be in a very weak negotiating position after Brexit. He says that the likes of Switzerland and Singapore are protected economies, whereas the UK would not be.

But no, Brexiters couldn’t concede any ground whatsoever, and admit this. So unbelievably stubborn and tin-eared. They had to act like Brexit had no downsides whatsoever, and look at the complete mess they are in now.

BonnieSituation

BarryD2 wrote: »

It is extraordinary how they have become the main voice for our Northern Irish friends. If you're not in, you can't win.

No. Please God no.

Incidentally, a great article here by Dawn Foster about SF's abstentionism.

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2019/04/sinn-fein-parliament-colonialism-ireland-brexit

Dawn Foster wrote:

When Sinn Féin’s supporters vote, they do so in the full knowledge that the candidates will not take their seats: it’s a position supported by the electorate; they do not vote for the party and then feel cheated upon learning it is abstentionist.

That should keep the lid on this for a week or so.

BarryD2

BonnieSituation wrote: »

No. Please God no.

Incidentally, a great article here by Dawn Foster about SF's abstentionism.

To which I can only reply that were I a nationalist voter in NI, I would be rightly disappointed and feel quite disenfranchised on all fronts. It must be demoralising to turn on the news day after day and see the DUP acting as spokespeople for NI in London and without any attempt at opposition. The one light on the horizon is I guess the FF interest in combining with SDLP to put up an alternative choice, but this is to stray sideways from Brexit.

IAmTheReign

Cryptopagan wrote: »

It’s not like our system at all. We don’t have referendums on policies our government doesn’t want to implement; Switzerland could find its entire relationship with the EU thrown into crisis if Swiss voters ever opt to abolish free movement, a position which enjoys a lot o support there.

They already did. They passed a referendum in 2014 the Swiss immigration initiative which seeked to bring in quotas for foreign workers which would have effectively ended FoM in Switzerland.

It had some interesting parallels with Brexit. It was sponsored by the right wing euroskeptic party, the Swiss Peoples Party, and like Brexit it was won on a slim majority of 50.3% (Less than 20,000 votes). Voting patterns were the same as Brexit, with older and rural voters voting for and younger urban voters voting against.

The EU told them that if they implemented it all Swiss EU bilateral agreements would lapse and they would lose all access to the Single Market. The Swiss government eventually backed down in 2016 and introduced a watered down law that forced employers to prioritise Swiss residents over non residents but only in areas of high unemployment. In practice the law has had zero impact on EU citizens working in Switzerland.

CelticRambler

Anteayer wrote: »

while France has done OK, it is certainly not likely to 'steal business' in a big way and that's largely down to a perception of the business environment and the barrage of images of violent protests that have been on business news channels for quite some time now.

The big net beneficiaries have been Frankfurt, Dublin, Luxembourg and cities in the Benelux. Paris has largely taken companies that have big profiles in Paris already or in some cases where Paris is seen as an alternative to London in terms of its scale. By all accounts, Paris is probably hitting well below its weight at the moment.

Inquitus wrote: »

This is nonsense, Ireland is an immeasurably better place to do business than France, easier to hire and fire, more business friendly, better educated workforce, etc. etc.

I'm not saying that France is a better place to do business; I'm pointing out that pushing the line "Ireland is the only English-speaking country in the EU" is irrelevant these days (French children have been learning English in primary school for more than a decade now, and take a second foreign language when they enter secondary, which puts them well ahead of most Irish pupils).

Furthermore, Macron is very aware of the points I've highlighted in red in Anteayer's post. His re-election prospects depend on getting France over those hurdles, and he does not need the distraction (at an international political level) of the Brexit dog-and-pony-show while he's trying to re-establish France's place in the world.

His comment about the necessity of Ireland paying a price for Brexit is not without merit, either. There have been plenty of contributors to this thread who have made exactly the same point. In any radical change of business model, there comes a time when you have to take a financial hit so as to profit from future opportunities. We've seen how Ireland's economy, so intimately bound up with England's for centuries, is being reorientated towards other places, and obviously "the longer the better" gives more time for that - but there's also a cost in constantly preparing for a future that isn't properly defined, and extension after extension after extension just makes that worse.

kunst nugget

BarryD2 wrote: »

To which I can only reply that were I a nationalist voter in NI, I would be rightly disappointed and feel quite disenfranchised on all fronts. It must be demoralising to turn on the news day after day and see the DUP acting as spokespeople for NI in London and without any attempt at opposition. The one light on the horizon is I guess the FF interest in combining with SDLP to put up an alternative choice, but this is to stray sideways from Brexit.

If you were a nationalist voter, you could have had the SDLP in the British parliament representing you but if you gave your vote to abstentionist party and are now complaining about having no representation, I'd have very little sympathy for you.

10000maniacs

Hurrache wrote: »

An apt time for him to finish up I suppose, but he'll be missed.
[url]

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1116452142729052160?s=19[/url]

Faisal Islam is good at cutting through the BS and not allowing politicians to make statements without being able to back up their claims. He also has a good knowledge of the complexities and regualrly challenged Brexit Tories on the GATT Article 24 claims. Nobody at the BBC has ever done that, maybe because they didn't understand the complexities of it.
I remember Kirsty Wark attempting to do that once with John Redwood and getting muddled and flustered.
Islam is a big loss to Sky.

Christy42

kunst nugget wrote: »

BarryD2 wrote: »

To which I can only reply that were I a nationalist voter in NI, I would be rightly disappointed and feel quite disenfranchised on all fronts. It must be demoralising to turn on the news day after day and see the DUP acting as spokespeople for NI in London and without any attempt at opposition. The one light on the horizon is I guess the FF interest in combining with SDLP to put up an alternative choice, but this is to stray sideways from Brexit.

If you were a nationalist voter, you could have had the SDLP in the British parliament representing you but if you gave your vote to abstentionist party and are now complaining about having no representation, I'd have very little sympathy for you.

To be fair voting for sinn fein is not voting for sinn fein. It is a vote against the DUP while the SDLP is like not voting. What do you do if you want a nationalist party that takes their seats but also don't want to help the DUP?

It is a big issue with the first past the post.

However with all the problems with it Sinn Fein are sticking to their promises. I don't think people can feel let down. Just frustrated at a lack of a better way.

The English still seem to have a strong hatred for Sinn Fein inspire of being relatively ok with the DUP in power so I am not sure if they would do much good going in either.

Overall I don't think Sinn Fein should take their seats but I could understand frustration from those who feel like there is not another realistic choice.

Farmer

ByDonkeys registered Nigell's http://thebrexitparty.com

https://mobile.twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1116583675632574464

Capt'n Midnight

Farage launching the Brexit party.

Splitting the UKIP vote and all the publicity will guarantee him another term with his snout in the trough as an MEP.


Expect lots of airtime because of "balance" unless it's now official BBC policy to back remain , which would be a good indication of government policy.

VinLieger

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Farage launching the Brexit party.

Splitting the UKIP vote and all the publicity will guarantee him another term with his snout in the trough as an MEP.


Expect lots of airtime because of "balance" unless it's now official BBC policy to back remain , which would be a good indication of government policy.

Farage will definitely keep his seat but splitting the vote may mean less ukip/brexit party MEP's overall which can only be a good thing foe europe.

Peregrinus

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Farage launching the Brexit party.

Splitting the UKIP vote and all the publicity will guarantee him another term with his snout in the trough as an MEP.


Expect lots of airtime because of "balance" unless it's now official BBC policy to back remain , which would be a good indication of government policy.

It's an election. Election rules apply to determine the allocation of time and slots between the various parties.

Hurrache

Hurrache wrote: »

That's the dumbest ****ing thing I've read in a long line of dumb ****ing things to come from the Brexit loving press, even considering it's in the Spectator, and the writer is/was a Daily Mail writer.

They really are sore that's they've been outplayed diplomatically.

The Irish Ambassador has written an open letter to the editor of the Spectator slating it and its take on things Irish.
https://twitter.com/IrelandEmbGB/status/1116383396626931712