Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

briany

Leroy42 wrote: »

It is a massive irony within the whole Brexit debate that the UK itself is a union of countries that have given up their notions of sovereignty for a greater good whilst they can not only see that in the EU but actually seem to be steadfastly against it. It is one of the questions that I have wished would be asked of the likes of Johnson or JRM. Why is a complete fiscal, political, military, sovereignty, law etc deemed great when it comes to the UK but deemed such a threat to democracy when looked at from the EU perspective? We all know the answer of course, but it a question I would like to see them explain how they can defend such a contradiction.

And the UK government has really hammered the irony home by telling the Scottish to sit down and shut up.

The fact is that the UK is always going to have its legislation influenced by sources other than its electorate and the people that electorate votes in. That could be lobbyists and it could be to facilitate trade deals, just to give two examples. I'm not saying that Brexiteers have zero valid criticisms in the reach of EU law, but I wonder would they be as critical of the other ways their laws are decided upon if and when they find themselves beyond the reach of the EU on legislative matters. It provides an interesting insight into how much of their feeling is based in a desire for sovereignty and how much in a dislike of that particular economic and political bloc known as the EU.

feargale

Peregrinus wrote: »

It was a letter to the editor, intended for publication.

And I believe the Spectator did publish it, but in edited form.

Which always happens with letters to the editor - they prune them ruthlessly for publication, to keep them short and punchy.

Which means, if you're writing a letter to the editor, the shorter and punchier you keep it, the closer the published version will be to what you wrote.

You are correct in what you say. But it is a cowardly, cynical stunt on the part of editors. Fair enough if I write a long, rambling letter complaining about the quality of hot cross buns in Hackballscross, but in this instance, relating to an issue of great gravity, it amounts to a denial of the right of reply, and that from those who shout loudest about the right to freedom of expression. The Spectator is not the only guilty party in this respect.

Anteayer

I'm not really sure what a now Germany company's crass marketing stunt has to do with Bresit tbh.

Mini could well be up being made somewhere else other than the UK if there's a no deal Brexit.

It's just a tacky marketing gimmick and one which may well backfire, particularly if it's not an optional thing.

Spanish Eyes

On another tack, since we will be waiting a while for any decisions now, I happened by chance on this series of Guardian reporting re Brexit and the GE of 2017. To say I went down a rabbit hole is an understatement.

But I found it interesting. There are quite a few clips in the series, if anyone is interested while we wait... again.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hkk-oYB1MNw&list=PLa_1MA_DEorEtJesA0TC4RrJajbk3NIix&index=17

spacecoyote

Pelosi is over on London & has stated that there will be no trade deal if they damage the integrity of the GFA with Brexit.

I know that other US pols have come out & said similar but this must be the highest ranking one to do so.

Wonder if it'll put any more heat on them?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/pelosi-warns-no-us-uk-trade-deal-if-belfast-agreement-weakened-by-brexit-1.3861459?mode=amp

Leroy42

Don't kid yourselves. US will do a trade deal with the UK if the terms are enough in their favour.

They are using this to create an additional advantage in any trade talks.

spacecoyote

Leroy42 wrote: »

Don't kid yourselves. US will do a trade deal with the UK if the terms are enough in their favour.

They are using this to create an additional advantage in any trade talks.

Of course they will do a deal with them, but the more heat they get from big external trading parties the more likely we end up with a deal closer to what we can live with

Leroy42

spacecoyote wrote: »

Of course they will do a deal with them, but the more heat they get from big external trading parties the more likely we end up with a deal closer to what we can live with

?? The deal the US strike with the UK will suit the US, it will have nothing to do with what is best for us. Agri regs for a start would be a nightmare for us.

All this talk of not doing a deal because of the GFA is just that, talk. They are laying the base for the discussion so that the UK are coming on the backfoot and looking for the US to help, means the US can drive a harder bargain.

US Rep - We would love to do a deal but this NI GFA thing, we simply can't what with the politics back home.
UK Rep - Yeah we understand, but we are a market of 60m Ireland is 5m and they will never let you get your Agri products in because of the EU. Tell you what, no Agri standards and free access to NHS as well as unregulated access to the financial markets. How does that sound?
US Rep - OK, listen we just need to sell this as working on a solution. Sort of like we say when we sign trade deals with Saudi etc. Well will make a few statements about using trade to unify our common peoples, using trade to break down barriers etc.

zapitastas

robinph wrote: »

But that would have all been optional extras.

You really don't see much flag waving going on in the UK, unless it's a football world cup at the time. Much more common in Ireland, and things being sold in shops flagged up as being Irish made in order to differentiate it from being British.

Lots and lots if flag waving in London last weekend and throughout a lot of British cities. Granted they were parachute regiment flags. Utterly depressing to see

robinph

zapitastas wrote: »

Lots and lots if flag waving in London last weekend and throughout a lot of British cities. Granted they were parachute regiment flags. Utterly depressing to see

Sounds like you just turned up at the wrong place at the wrong time, but there really isn't any overt shows of nationalism and flag waving among the general population. If you head to the tourist centres of London it will obviously be a different matter though, but that is not the same around the rest of the country.

Nothing depressing about sticking a few flags on top of tourist attractions.

Hurrache

Verhofstadt not at all happy with the extension given, nor with Tusk by the sounds of things. So it flies in the face that it was just Macron and a couple of other minor players that didn't want to grant it.

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1118078190050840578
https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1118078491679969282
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1118070720033165315

Shelga

Interesting how Brexit has completely dropped off the news since they got another extension last week. No sense of urgency whatsoever, with parliament due to be on break for 11 weeks between mid-July and mid-October, never mind the Easter break.

Nothing on the calendar re. discussion of Brexit in the week they come back after Easter.

They could be using this time to organise a second referendum around May’s deal vs Remain. At least it would be forward movement.

I predict the UK will be in exactly the same panic as we saw in the last few weeks, in early/mid October. Exactly the same.

Enzokk

Hurrache wrote: »

Verhofstadt not at all happy with the extension given, nor with Tusk by the sounds of things. So it flies in the face that it was just Macron and a couple of other minor players that didn't want to grant it.

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1118078190050840578
https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1118078491679969282
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1118070720033165315

It does seem as there is disagreement between Tusk and Verhofstadt. I agree with a lot of what Mr Tusk has said and done, but I don't agree with his point about Farage applauding the view of Verhofstadt and automatically it means it is wrong. There is a conversation that needs to be had on the extension and what the UK will do with it. I think not attaching some conditions mean we could be back exactly where we were 3 weeks ago and last week.

Shelga wrote: »

Interesting how Brexit has completely dropped off the news since they got another extension last week. No sense of urgency whatsoever, with parliament due to be on break for 11 weeks between mid-July and mid-October, never mind the Easter break.

Nothing on the calendar re. discussion of Brexit in the week they come back after Easter.

They could be using this time to organise a second referendum around May’s deal vs Remain. At least it would be forward movement.

I predict the UK will be in exactly the same panic as we saw in the last few weeks, in early/mid October. Exactly the same.

The lack of self awareness from UK MPs and the PM is astonishing. They just averted the biggest crises since WW2 and their response is to go on an extended break. I think both Corbyn and May is happy not to have Brexit haunting everything for a little and as you point out seems to be ignoring it when they come back. So nothing will change for a few months and we will be back with May trying to force MPs to vote for her deal with the threat of no-deal, only this time it will be October instead of March 29 or April 12.

What was that definition of insanity, doing the same thing over and expecting a different result.

Enzokk

Enzokk wrote: »

What was that definition of insanity, doing the same thing over and expecting a different result.

It's also the definition of practice, and to be fair, she was getting better at it.


The extension has brought about a worse situation than I thought it would... Easter break and 11 weeks off total, and nothing on the calendar? That means no big moves are being made.

Unless there's some serious behind the scenes discussions going on, this will be the UK's first and only extension. If they take the piss, the EU will never agree another one. And if the UK doesn't use this time wisely, it's either Remain or No Deal.

Shelga

They were warned to use this time wisely, and early indicators are not good.

I can understand needing a very small break from it, as the Brexit insanity is relentless, but I just have no faith whatsoever in the current useless government to make any tough decisions. May is still trying to please everyone, and pleasing absolutely no one. And the opposition is of course dire also.

CelticRambler

Putting stuff on a calendar doesn't guarantee any kind of progress. What about all those meaningful votes that were inked onto the calendar, or parliament's programme of indicative votes? Westminster is a mess; there was - and is - nothing to be gained by forcing jaded MPs to continue to dig holes in whatever corner they've painted themselves into just because it gives 24-hour news channels something to talk about.

Leroy42

CelticRambler wrote: »

Putting stuff on a calendar doesn't guarantee any kind of progress. What about all those meaningful votes that were inked onto the calendar, or parliament's programme of indicative votes? Westminster is a mess; there was - and is - nothing to be gained by forcing jaded MPs to continue to dig holes in whatever corner they've painted themselves into just because it gives 24-hour news channels something to talk about.

But they need to get an answer. This is why, IMO, the EU were wrong to not only grant the extension, but to do so with such little conditions attached. The one constant throughout the process is that the UK will waste whatever time it is given.

They will now take a break and forget about it until closer to October. The time pressure was there to make them make a decision yet the EU took it away and received nothing in return.

In saying that, I do understand the though behind it. Better to have the UK still inside thinking (or not in this case) that out, but I just don't see what will change.

I would have been with Macron on this. The shorter the better and certainly such a long extension should have had lots of conditions attached to it.

Shelga

CelticRambler wrote: »

Putting stuff on a calendar doesn't guarantee any kind of progress. What about all those meaningful votes that were inked onto the calendar, or parliament's programme of indicative votes? Westminster is a mess; there was - and is - nothing to be gained by forcing jaded MPs to continue to dig holes in whatever corner they've painted themselves into just because it gives 24-hour news channels something to talk about.

I take your point, but that is literally their job! When you have failed at a matter of critical national importance, it's ok to just wash your hands of it for 6 months and end up in the exact same humiliating position?

May needs to get behind a people's vote. I cannot see any other alternative at this point.

CelticRambler

Leroy42 wrote: »

But they need to get an answer. ...

They will now take a break and forget about it until closer to October. The time pressure was there to make them make a decision yet the EU took it away and received nothing in return.

Shelga wrote: »

I take your point, but that is literally their job! When you have failed at a matter of critical national importance, it's ok to just wash your hands of it for 6 months and end up in the exact same humiliating position?

What proof is there that anyone is washing their hands of anything, or forgetting about everything till October? In my job, I often have to make decisions of critical importance, and sometimes the best way to make that decision is to put everything on hold and "bugger off" for a while (or tell the person who's going to be affected by my decision to bugger off for a while).

Just because it's not being dissected on Sky or the BBC or Newstalk doesn't mean that the relevant parties aren't re-considering their positions.

That's not to say that I have any more confidence that TM will come up with a workable strategy, acceptable to the Labour party. But it's only four days since the last deadline expired - if they've got six months, why are you in such a rush for them to come up with yet another half-baked, utterly impractical plan that won't get majority support?

Shelga

CelticRambler wrote: »

if they've got six months, why are you in such a rush for them to come up with yet another half-baked, utterly impractical plan that won't get majority support?

I'm in a rush for them to demonstrate publicly that they are taking this extension extremely seriously. I'm not holding my breath.

Leroy42

CelticRambler wrote: »

What proof is there that anyone is washing their hands of anything, or forgetting about everything till October?

The last almost 3 years should be proof enough.

We know that this is mainly a Tory infighting issue. TM was under severe pressure to choose a side, make a decision.

We also know that TM will say and do anything to buy more time. She has changed position so many times that pretty much nobody actually believes her.

Laois_Man

It's all about self survival with May - get to October, get another extension. By mid-December, the Tory's will be able to make a new motion of no confidence in her - and she thinks she'll win for the same reason as she won last time, because nobody else wants to be PM until after they've exited the EU - and she'll be technically safe for another year.....her view IMO.

Businesses across the EU are now in the ridiculous situation whereby Brexit could possible come into effect on the fist day of next month, and that will be the situation every month - and on and on it will go until nobody knows when! We should have let them self destruct last Friday and waited for them to come back to the table!

How is the UK Government itself even going to be functional from now to October? Is there still a majority that will pass any legislation on anything? Are the DUP still propping them up? Does anybody actually know? The entire situation is ludicrous!

CelticRambler

Leroy42 wrote: »

We know that this is mainly a Tory infighting issue. TM was under severe pressure to choose a side, make a decision.

We also know that TM will say and do anything to buy more time. She has changed position so many times that pretty much nobody actually believes her.

Exactly - so why nail the whole of the HoC to an impossibly short timetable, giving no-one enough time to undermine TM and the Tories? Like it or not, as long as TM is in No.10, she's got the upper hand, and will continue to prevaricate while blaming everyone else.

Short of pulling the plug on the UK's EU membership (which would be giving UKIP and the ERG all their Christmas Presents and Easter Eggs at once) the best way for the EU to manipulate the situation to its own advantage is to take the pressure off, so that voices other than TMs can be heard, and parties other than the Tories work something out.

Strazdas

Hurrache wrote: »

Verhofstadt not at all happy with the extension given, nor with Tusk by the sounds of things. So it flies in the face that it was just Macron and a couple of other minor players that didn't want to grant it.

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1118078190050840578
https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1118078491679969282
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1118070720033165315

It's understandable though that there are differences of opinion between Verhofstadt and Tusk on this. Brexit is an almightly shambles, an utter political fiasco. There are no easy ways out of it or easy solutions and it's inevitable there will be strong disagreements on what to do, even among friends and colleagues.

briany

Enzokk wrote: »

It does seem as there is disagreement between Tusk and Verhofstadt. I agree with a lot of what Mr Tusk has said and done, but I don't agree with his point about Farage applauding the view of Verhofstadt and automatically it means it is wrong. There is a conversation that needs to be had on the extension and what the UK will do with it. I think not attaching some conditions mean we could be back exactly where we were 3 weeks ago and last week.


The lack of self awareness from UK MPs and the PM is astonishing. They just averted the biggest crises since WW2 and their response is to go on an extended break. I think both Corbyn and May is happy not to have Brexit haunting everything for a little and as you point out seems to be ignoring it when they come back. So nothing will change for a few months and we will be back with May trying to force MPs to vote for her deal with the threat of no-deal, only this time it will be October instead of March 29 or April 12.

What was that definition of insanity, doing the same thing over and expecting a different result.

The current extension agreement has a review period in June where the EU will assess the situation and presumably ask the UK what way forward they have come up with. If the UK government essentially answer that they thought they could just loll about for about 5 and a half months then I think this will make the June review a particularly fraught time. I'm not sure if the EU reserves the right to kick the UK out wholesale at this time, but whichever way it's not going to engender good faith between the negotiating parties if the UK do not get the finger out, and soon.

Sam Russell

The UK Gov has cancelled Operation Yellow Hammer, which effectively takes No Deal off the table. They are no longer spending more money planning for a crash out, having wasted billions on a failed plan.

So that leaves Revoke (possibly after a 2nd Ref) or to take the WA as drafted, with possible tweaks to the PD.

Those two options are now all that is left, and no-one in the HoC likes the WA.

Infini

Hurrache wrote: »

Verhofstadt not at all happy with the extension given, nor with Tusk by the sounds of things. So it flies in the face that it was just Macron and a couple of other minor players that didn't want to grant it.

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1118078190050840578
https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1118078491679969282
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1118070720033165315

To be fair to both Barnier and Guy they both are in the unenviable position of both being right.

I would say though that this extention is the UKs last chance as Frances frustrations are not without merit and theres gonna come a point where their frustrations become too much to bear without a significant shift from the UK.

Bigus

In the overall scheme of things and timescale involved the extension was the best option . As time moves on the momentum is away from the Brexiteers and Brexit. A few months extension and consequent costs to business are minuscule versus the wrong decision or bad Brexit which we would all have to live with for a generation . So patience is definitely a virtue now, and personally I see business people of the mind that a hard Brexit will now never happen. I also see Revoke getting more and more mentions , unlike previously, so hopefully the momentum against Brexit will turn into a full blown rush to revoke when sense and some reality (think European summer travel for Brits )prevails .

Strazdas

Bigus wrote: »

In the overall scheme of things and timescale involved the extension was the best option . As time moves on the momentum is away from the Brexiteers and Brexit. A few months extension and consequent costs to business are minuscule versus the wrong decision or bad Brexit which we would all have to live with for a generation . So patience is definitely a virtue now, and personally I see business people of the mind that a hard Brexit will now never happen. I also see Revoke getting more and more mentions , unlike previously, so hopefully the momentum against Brexit will turn into a full blown rush to revoke when sense and some reality (think European summer travel for Brits )prevails .

It's a fair point.There's an argument that says that every day we go past March 29th undermines Brexit and undermines the ideology of Brexit (no matter how much its disciples deny this is happening).

Shelga

“No deal is better than a bad deal”- can this now go down in the history books as one of the most stupid and untrue utterances by any UK PM ever?