Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

farmchoice

L1011 wrote: »

The only way they can stop the Euro elections is by leaving before them - 21 days to get an agreement passed in that scenario. So its not happening.

they need to get the WA voted through by the 21st of may to stop the euro elections so labour agreement would do it but only as long as there is no second referendum. if the deal with labour necessitated a confirmatory referendum then they would have to hold the elections anyway as there would hardly be time to hold the ref by 31st of october, let alone the 21st of may.

all along corbyn has stated that there is no need for a confirmatory referendum if labour was doing the negotiating as the deal would be such a good deal there would be no need. if its a deal that is acceptable to labour then he can argue the same thing applies. all along the labour position was they would only support a second referendum May's ( or some tory) bad deal.

mrbrianj

Is it really in the interest of either the Tories or Labour to actually do anything at this stage? There'll be blood on the floor for both if they faced a general election with Brexit the only topic.

They will elect MEPs and then that euro deadline goes, and just get rolling extensions to A50. It leaves the main UK parties to put Brexit on the long finger and get on with doing whatever they usually do.

Brexit is too toxic to actually do, and too "called out" to not do. It should just be left linger on, like a walking dead of a concept.

L1011

farmchoice wrote: »

they need to get the WA voted through by the 21st of may to stop the euro elections so labour agreement would do it but only as long as there is no second referendum. if the deal with labour necessitated a confirmatory referendum then they would have to hold the elections anyway as there would hardly be time to hold the ref by 31st of october, let alone the 21st of may.

all along corbyn has stated that there is no need for a confirmatory referendum if labour was doing the negotiating as the deal would be such a good deal there would be no need. if its a deal that is acceptable to labour then he can argue the same thing applies. all along the labour position was they would only support a second referendum May's ( or some tory) bad deal.

Labour won't vote for the WA+PD as it is and the timeline to get an agreement to change the PD is going to be longer than that.

They will be holding the European Elections.

Laois_Man

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

US politicians and Brexiteers clash on ‘concocted Border issue’

There appears to be literally no one that can get through the ERG's insane perspectives on the border. Are they now going to extend their "enemies of the people" narrative to house democrats? I'm honestly not sure what the sixth month extension can achieve when you still have the ERG spreading their nonsensical, toxic views into the public discourse and nothing being done to rein them in, or no sign of perspectives and views maturing/developing/softening. I actually think that a lot of them know that it's utter bull, but it serves their purposes to continue pushing it and as long as that continues, and with incredibly poor leaders in both the government and opposition, we will be at the same impasse come October.

About that article, where it says..........

The Democrat said the appointment of a US special envoy by the Trump administration could prove “constructive and helpful” in the Brexit process, particularly in the absence of a Northern Ireland Assembly.

I'm not so sure. I think I am fairly happy for Trump to stay the fek out of all this! God knows what agenda the special envoy he selects would have, or would be told to have.

Regrading the ERG, I can't understand why these members weren't deselected years ago! Most of them come from constituencies where a teddy bear candidate with a conservative badge stuck on it would win the seat!

Patser

mrbrianj wrote: »

Is it really in the interest of either the Tories or Labour to actually do anything at this stage? There'll be blood on the floor for both if they faced a general election with Brexit the only topic.

They will elect MEPs and then that euro deadline goes, and just get rolling extensions to A50. It leaves the main UK parties to put Brexit on the long finger and get on with doing whatever they usually do.

Brexit is too toxic to actually do, and too "called out" to not do. It should just be left linger on, like a walking dead of a concept.

Absolutely there is and will be, both for Labour and Tories. Neither will want the European Elections to go ahead, they'll want them shut off before they even start campaigning because to start a campaign:

1. Labour and especially Tories, will have to formulate and present clear unified policies to pursue. After last 3 years good luck with that Mrs May.

2. It'll give huge exposure to the new parties that do have simple, clear policies - Change and Brexit Party will thrive as Labour and Tories infighting.

3. If the results are terrible for main parties Corbyn and May will face massive leadership challenges (How May is still there I don't know). These challenges will again lay bare division in the parties, as well as burn up more time to decide on Brexit.

So, so much better to compromise and get out now for them......

Except Everyone has switched off from Brexit. BBC and Sky cameras are gone from outside Westminster, public has accepted Halloween, new issues are making headlines, MPs are on holidays. Maybe the lack of spotlight and pressure might allow for a deal to be done, but more than likely they'll end up fighting EU elections even if they don't want to.

An Ciarraioch

The Irish Government might cover the cost of maintaining EHIC coverage in Northern Ireland:

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0416/1043054-health-cards-europe/

steddyeddy

Laois_Man wrote: »

About that article, where it says..........



I'm not so sure. I think I am fairly happy for Trump to stay the fek out of all this! God knows what agenda the special envoy he selects would have, or would be told to have.

Regrading the ERG, I can't understand why these members weren't deselected years ago! Most of them come from constituencies where a teddy bear candidate with a conservative badge stuck on it would win the seat!

It isn't even about Trump, Democrats or Republicans. It's about the Irish-American lobby, one of the most powerful lobby groups in America and a large percentage of voting Americans. I'm happy they're getting involved. I'm not a rabid anti-British person. I spend my working life split between England and the US and have good memories of both. That said the British government can't be trusted with the future of their own country let alone an international peace treaty that many in the current government consider a surrender to the terrorists. The US is a valuable ally to peace in Ireland.

An Ciarraioch

Brexit Party take the lead in European election polling:

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1118480874893381632

Enzokk

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Brexit Party take the lead in European election polling:

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1118480874893381632

The Remain parties has scored a massive own goal, and those that lied during the Brexit referendum is in poll position to get elected as MEPs and have their cake and eat it. They will collect EU money and pensions if the UK stays in the EU or they will get their wish when they leave. How depressing is that? There is still time though for Remain parties to agree to an overall strategy and not run the election as a re-run of the Brexit referendum.

Also, what justification is there for the EU to try and keep the UK in the EU if the electorate is so at odds with their MPs? Surely if this polling turns out to be accurate then it seems to me that the UK leaving the EU and with a hard Brexit is going to be the destination. We must protect the GFA and it will end with an Irish Sea border. That seems like the most logical outcome right now.

Laois_Man

steddyeddy wrote: »

It isn't even about Trump, Democrats or Republicans. It's about the Irish-American lobby, one of the most powerful lobby groups in America and a large percentage of voting Americans. I'm happy they're getting involved. I'm not a rabid anti-British person. I spend my working life split between England and the US and have good memories of both. That said the British government can't be trusted with the future of their own country let alone an international peace treaty that many in the current government consider a surrender to the terrorists. The US is a valuable ally to peace in Ireland.

The sentence of the article I posted was about Trump and his envoy!
My post was about Trump and his envoy!

Enzokk wrote: »

Surely if this polling turns out to be accurate then it seems to me that the UK leaving the EU and with a hard Brexit is going to be the destination.

Bit of an over reaction. Brexit may be the largest individual party but the other parties (even adding UKIP and Brexit together) easily outweighs it. This YouGov poll is a bit of an outlier to the others also.

Leroy42

Enzokk wrote: »

The Remain parties has scored a massive own goal, and those that lied during the Brexit referendum is in poll position to get elected as MEPs and have their cake and eat it. They will collect EU money and pensions if the UK stays in the EU or they will get their wish when they leave. How depressing is that? There is still time though for Remain parties to agree to an overall strategy and not run the election as a re-run of the Brexit referendum.

Also, what justification is there for the EU to try and keep the UK in the EU if the electorate is so at odds with their MPs? Surely if this polling turns out to be accurate then it seems to me that the UK leaving the EU and with a hard Brexit is going to be the destination. We must protect the GFA and it will end with an Irish Sea border. That seems like the most logical outcome right now.

Because in the main the Remain parties are really the Labour/Tory party and people can see that they are really only separating on this issue but will happily return when it is done.

UKIP and Brexit party are far more direct and clearly stand for a single issue. Hence why, after the ref, UKIP collapsed as there was literally nothing left for it. It is rising again as Brexit is clearly still an issue.

Even the recent indicative votes where Change UK did not side with certain votes because they wanted something else or did like the exact amendment. Rather than workign towards moving the dialogue away from Brexit they are still trapped in their position of really not wanting Labour to win (or vice versa).

In the main, politics has failed to understand that Brexit really is the defining item at the moment, and voters are picking sides based on this.

steddyeddy

Laois_Man wrote: »

The sentence of the article I posted was about Trump and his envoy!
My post was about Trump and his envoy!



Bit of an over reaction. Brexit may be the largest individual party but the other parties (even adding UKIP and Brexit together) easily outweighs it. This YouGov poll is a bit of an outlier to the others also.

Apologies Laois man!

Alan_P

Patser wrote: »

Absolutely there is and will be, both for Labour and Tories. Neither will want the European Elections to go ahead, they'll want them shut off before they even start campaigning because to start a campaign:

1. Labour and especially Tories, will have to formulate and present clear unified policies to pursue. After last 3 years good luck with that Mrs May.

2. It'll give huge exposure to the new parties that do have simple, clear policies - Change and Brexit Party will thrive as Labour and Tories infighting.

3. If the results are terrible for main parties Corbyn and May will face massive leadership challenges (How May is still there I don't know). These challenges will again lay bare division in the parties, as well as burn up more time to decide on Brexit.

So, so much better to compromise and get out now for them......

Except Everyone has switched off from Brexit. BBC and Sky cameras are gone from outside Westminster, public has accepted Halloween, new issues are making headlines, MPs are on holidays. Maybe the lack of spotlight and pressure might allow for a deal to be done, but more than likely they'll end up fighting EU elections even if they don't want to.

Isn't everyone missing something about the UK avoiding EP elections ? The last European Council decision, agreed with the UK, is absolutely clear and says the UK will leave before Oct 31th if both parties have completed ratification. EU ratification requires a European Parliament vote :- and the outgoing Parliament adjourns for the elections tomorrow.


Isn't the UK's effective deadline to avoid EP elections tomorrow ?

Zubeneschamali

Alan_P wrote: »

Isn't the UK's effective deadline to avoid EP elections tomorrow ?

No. They have already called the elections, but they can cancel them if they ratify the WA.

L1011

Enzokk wrote: »

Surely if this polling turns out to be accurate then it seems to me that the UK leaving the EU and with a hard Brexit is going to be the destination.

34% for Brexit+UKIP


25% for outright remain parties + 22% for Labour.

So no, even if it turns out exactly as this it doesn't mean a hard Brexit.

Alan_P

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No. They have already called the elections, but they can cancel them if they ratify the WA.

Read my post. Both sides have to ratify the WA, and the European Parliament can't after tomorrow, bcause it's adjourning for the elections.

Junkyard Tom

The EU elections in Britain will be a litmus test for Britain's future in Europe. If the pro-Brexit parties do as well as the polling suggests then Britain should be allowed to crash-out and stay out of the EU.

Enzokk

L1011 wrote: »

34% for Brexit+UKIP


25% for outright remain parties + 22% for Labour.

So no, even if it turns out exactly as this it doesn't mean a hard Brexit.

Do you not consider the Tories as a Brexit party?

Leroy42

Alan_P wrote: »

Read my post. Both sides have to ratify the WA, and the European Parliament can't after tomorrow, bcause it's adjourning for the elections.

Haven't the EU already ratified it? I think you are right but I also thought that this had been already dealt with.

Alan_P

Leroy42 wrote: »

Haven't the EU already ratified it? I think you are right but I also thought that this had been already dealt with.

The point is he European Parliament has to ratify it. And according to it's own website,



http://www.europarl.europa.eu/unitedkingdom/en/brexitpublic/brexit.html#shadowbox/2/


it hasn't. The Council have, but the EP's vote is also an explicit part of the ratification process.

Working class heroes

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

The EU elections in Britain will be a litmus test for Britain's future in Europe. If the pro-Brexit parties do as well as the polling suggests then Britain should be allowed to crash-out and stay out of the EU.

They are allowed to crash out, are they not?

L1011

Enzokk wrote: »

Do you not consider the Tories as a Brexit party?

Not a crash out/hard Brexit party. ERG do not make up a majority of the party despite disproportionate media coverage!

1st dalkey dalkey

Working class heroes wrote: »

They are allowed to crash out, are they not?

I think he means they should not be facilitated in staying in with new extensions each time they fail to agree.
In the event of such an election result, I would agree with him.
If, despite all they now know, the UK electorate return a majority of Brexit MEP's there should be no more extensions.

Zubeneschamali

1st dalkey dalkey wrote: »

If, despite all they now know, the UK electorate return a majority of Brexit MEP's there should be no more extensions.

The EU is not offering an extension as a favour or as a reward for good behaviour, it is doing it because a crash out would cost the EU billions for no reason at all.

We should keep offering extensions until they see sense and give it up as a bad job, costs us less.

Spanish Eyes

I agree that the elastic should be stretched as far as possible by EU wrt extensions now. It is in all our interests including the UK, and they know it now I think. Well those with some intelligence do I believe.

The danger is, if Brexit Party clean up in the EU elections it will be seen as a proxy vote to Leave, and they could clean up in any future GE if UK has not left by then.

Just the issue that the referendum was called in the first place, but back then UKIP were the bogey.

1st dalkey dalkey

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The EU is not offering an extension as a favour or as a reward for good behaviour, it is doing it because a crash out would cost the EU billions for no reason at all.

We should keep offering extensions until they see sense and give it up as a bad job, costs us less.

Agreed. They are offering extensions in the hope that they do give it up as a bad job.
But if they return a majority of Brexit MEP's, especially of the sort JRM is suggesting (disrupting things), then it is clear that there will be no giving it up.
It will be time to bite the bullet.

woohoo!!!

It will be interesting to see whether EU citizens will register and vote in the European elections in big numbers

serfboard

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Brexit Party take the lead in European election polling

Yes - in a poll that measures "voting intention".

Unfortunately, at the last European elections in the UK, two-thirds of the electorate didn't bother voting (contrast to here where the majority of the electorate (52%) did vote).

In the 2014 European election UKIP got 4.4 million votes and won 24 out of 73 EP seats. (Their poorest English result in that election was in London where they got one sixth of the votes).

Their best result in the UK General Election was in 2015, where they got 3.9 million votes and won 1 out of 650 seats. Their "core" vote could be in or around the four million, with ERGers stepping in and out depending on the contest.

The point being that the UKIP voters actually came out to vote in the European Parliament Elections. This Yeats quote summarises it:

W B Yeats wrote:

The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

If all the so-called passionate Europeans in England who are demanding a second vote would get up off their arses and actually vote in the upcoming European elections, the European Parliament might be spared some of the obstructiveness that JRM is promising.

20silkcut

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The EU is not offering an extension as a favour or as a reward for good behaviour, it is doing it because a crash out would cost the EU billions for no reason at all.

We should keep offering extensions until they see sense and give it up as a bad job, costs us less.

If the DUP are sidelined the sea border solution has to be the answer.
The backstop is the main sticking point.

The mainland can have it hard as they like then but they will still have to trade with the EU. And their clout will be on the floor.

But taking that poll at face value they clearly want out no matter what. To me it is incredible after all that has happened.
Extending is futile in that scenario.
I suppose we don’t fully get the English psyche. Their country has undergone immense change in the last 50/60 years.( self inflicted change)
They( a lot of them) clearly don’t like it.
We didn’t experience anything like it here.

Sam Russell

20silkcut wrote: »

If the DUP are sidelined the sea border solution has to be the answer.

The mainland can have it hard as they like then but they will still have to trade with the EU. And their clout will be on the floor.

But taking that poll at face value they clearly want out no matter what.
Extending is futile in that scenario.

No Deal is off the table. Operation Yellowhammer has been cancelled. The bluff was called. So No Deal is no longer an option, the HoC will pass another Cooper law that will prevent it, if necessary.

The DUP are now irrelevant as they are not enough to bring the deal over the line, and anyway they have declared they will never back the WA as it is now, and the EU have said umpteen times that it will not be changed.

So that leaves two options. !: WA passed with Labour support, with probable requirement for a WA vs Remain referendum. 2: Revoke, plain and simple.

At what point will TM allow a backbench vote to revoke?