Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Laois_Man

Farage in his (hopefully permanent) farewell speech in the EU parliament today warned Labour and the Tory's about what The Brexit Party will do in the next General Election if they are still in the customs union / single market

ancapailldorcha

Farage will be re-elected. No question. I'd say that he waited until the last possible moment to launch his Brexit Party so he could minimise the risk of controversy and the airing of dirty laundry. European Parliament elections are PR-based. As much as I would like to see him booted out, it won't happen.

Sam Russell

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Farage will be re-elected. No question. I'd say that he waited until the last possible moment to launch his Brexit Party so he could minimise the risk of controversy and the airing of dirty laundry. European Parliament elections are PR-based. As much as I would like to see him booted out, it won't happen.

Unfortunately the EU election, although PR based, it is also a party based list system that guarantees that people vote party rather than person. This is no more democratic than the 'safe seat' system of the FPTP. It is the party that chooses the safe seat occupant, and it is the party that chooses the order of the list, and so safe seats for those at the top of the list.

Beechwoodspark

I doubt he will be re elected. Talking to British colleagues they see through his rubbish.

listermint

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

I doubt he will be re elected. Talking to British colleagues they see through his rubbish.

They're most likely not in his constituency

Tell me how

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

I doubt he will be re elected. Talking to British colleagues they see through his rubbish.

While many dislike him, many many more are happy for him to be a nuisance in Brussels. There is a fundamental dislike within the UK of the EU project, pragmatists can see it is better for business and security but even so, many dislike it. Even educated people who ordinarily we might think would look at things very reasonably.

I think it is part of their national psyche in being inculcated with the sense of 'The British Empire' all their lives and the geographical divide of the channel tunnel which means that Brussels making any decisions which influence UK law or practices makes them wince.

Since 1999, his percentage of the vote in MEP elections has been 9.7%, 19.5%, 18.8% and 32.1%.
Many might not want to be seen to support him by attending a march or rally but in the privacy of the ballot box they will still favour him. I expect he will be re-elected easily.

woohoo!!!

IIRC, the UK has a 73 seat allocation. Based on the PR party list system they have, on 27%, this translates into 19-20 seats. Even if they drop to say 20%, this still translates to 14-15 seats. Farage being top of his party list means he's guaranteed.

Capt'n Midnight

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

I doubt he will be re elected. Talking to British colleagues they see through his rubbish.

The UK is divided into large regions. Farage is in the South East, it's a 10 seater, the biggest. In other words it's the one where he could get elected on the lowest % of the vote because he's not stupid.

In GB it's a party list and it's the party who choose which candidate gets their votes first. So if the Brexit Party get anything like 7% Nigel is home and dry.

http://www.democraticaudit.com/2019/04/15/the-uks-2019-european-parliament-elections-are-happening-after-all-heres-how-they-will-work/

serfboard

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

I doubt he will be re elected. Talking to British colleagues they see through his rubbish.

Farage is standing in South East England (counties Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, East Sussex, Hampshire, the Isle of Wight, Kent, Oxfordshire, Surrey and West Sussex).

In the 2015 European Parliament Election, UKIP got 32% of the vote in the constituency, topped the poll and elected four MEPs. I don't think that they (BP/UKIP) will do as well this time (their vote being split between UKIP and the Brexit Party), but I'd still expect they'll get enough to get Farage over the line.

In that same constituency in 2015, the Tories were in second with 31% of the vote, electing three MEPs. One of them was Danial Hannan, of whom the less said the better. Another was Richard Ashworth, who recently made a great speech in the European Parliament, and who has since joined Change UK and who will be standing in the 2019 election.

South East England contains a lot of seaside towns which are very heavy Brexit areas:

The Guardian wrote:

The overall result in the 2016 EU referendum was tight (51.89% voted leave versus 48.11% remain), but on the coast the leave vote [was] particularly strong – leave won a majority in more than 100 of about 120 parliamentary constituencies with a coastline.

And as to why that's the case:

The Guardian wrote:

people living in towns on England’s coast are more likely than average to suffer from deprivation, a government study from 2015 found.

So voters blaming Brussels for deprivation caused entirely by their own governments, and doing this because charlatans like Farage and Johnson, and billionaire unelected newspaper owners, told them so repeatedly.

An Ciarraioch

Lewis Goodall of Sky News gets a Home Office document that, unsurprisingly, states a technological solution to the Border is impossible before 2030 at the earliest:

https://news.sky.com/story/technological-solution-to-irish-border-issue-could-be-a-decade-away-says-home-office-document-11696337

serfboard

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Lewis Goodall of Sky News gets a Home Office document that, unsurprisingly, states a technological solution to the Border is impossible before 2030 at the earliest:

A solution to the border that does not involve checks in the Irish Sea is impossible, full stop.

reslfj

Sam Russell wrote: »

Unfortunately the EU election, although PR based, it is also a party based list system that guarantees that people vote party rather than person. This is no more democratic than the 'safe seat' system of the FPTP. It is the party that chooses the safe seat occupant, and it is the party that chooses the order of the list, and so safe seats for those at the top of the list.

Note: The party based lists are not an EU requirement, but 100% a UK decision.

In Denmark, which is one election region with 13 MEP's (14 after Brexit), the parties can independently choose a party list or choose a list where those with the highest number of personal votes within the list are elected.

In addition two or more list can form an election coalition, where the total number of MEPs elected will be based on the total number of votes the election coalition has got. This total number of elected MEPs are then subsequent allocated to each list in accordance with the votes for each list.
An election coalition will normally be between parties with similar party programs and values.

The election coalitions will mitigate the disadvantage of being a small party e.g. three small parties might get two mandates instead of none.

This is all within the EU rules for EP elections.

Lars

An Ciarraioch

reslfj wrote: »

Note: The party based lists are not an EU requirement, but 100% a UK decision.

In Denmark, which is one election region with 13 MEP's (14 after Brexit), the parties can independently choose a party list or choose a list where those with the highest number of personal votes within the list are elected.

In addition two or more list can form an election coalition, where the total number of MEPs elected will be based on the total number of votes the election coalition has got. This total number of elected MEPs are then subsequent allocated to each list in accordance with the votes for each list.
An election coalition will normally be between parties with similar party programs and values.

The election coalitions will mitigate the disadvantage of being a small party e.g. three small parties might get two mandates instead of none.

This is all within the EU rules for EP elections.

Lars

See Spain, for instance, where the Basque, Catalan and Galician parties regularly form joint European lists to maximise their MEP numbers.

Leroy42

It is really up to EU citizens living in the UK to step up and vote. If for nothing else than simply to protect themselves.

There should be a massive turnout for the EU elections

An Ciarraioch

Galloway gives a demonstration of the Lexiteer mentality:

http://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/1118560481785065472

Zubeneschamali

20silkcut wrote: »

If the DUP are sidelined the sea border solution has to be the answer.
The backstop is the main sticking point.

For the DUP, yes.

But Labour, ordinary Tories and the ERG all dislike Mays deal for other reasons, and there is no possible deal that can get a majority, even No Deal.

So in the end, they will see sense.

As long as they don't crash out by accident first.

Seth Brundle

Sam Russell wrote: »

No Deal is off the table. Operation Yellowhammer has been cancelled. The bluff was called. So No Deal is no longer an option, the HoC will pass another Cooper law that will prevent it, if necessary.

Although they've voted to prevent a no-deal exit, their inability to agree on any one plan almost allowed them to crash out (effectively saved by the six month extension from the EU).
Next time, they may not be so lucky!
No deal is still a realistic possibility despite the Brits saying that it's off the table.

theguzman

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Galloway gives a demonstration of the Lexiteer mentality:

http://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/1118560481785065472

When someone of the calibre and integrity of him is supporting Brexit it just shows how rotten the EU is and how the elitist Europhile liberals are trying everything to prevent the democratic wish of the British people to regain their Independence. Polls shows Farages new Brexit party in pole position and will romp to victory as the British people are entrenched even further for a hard brexit. If there was a new referendum now over two thirds would vote to leave. The sycophants pontificating for the EU have lost and their undemocratic attempts have only served to harden peoples opinions even more.

Spanish Eyes

theguzman wrote: »

When someone of the calibre and integrity of him is supporting Brexit it just shows how rotten the EU is and how the elitist Europhile liberals are trying everything to prevent the democratic wish of the British people to regain their Independence. Polls shows Farages new Brexit party in pole position and will romp to victory as the British people are entrenched even further for a hard brexit. If there was a new referendum now over two thirds would vote to leave. The sycophants pontificating for the EU have lost and their undemocratic attempts have only served to harden peoples opinions even more.

It looks to me like the UK Parliament is scuppering the so called Will of the People.

They have rejected No Deal.
They have rejected the WA.

So pray tell what is left now? Democracy in action right.

Few have time for Galloway anymore. I wonder why?

Midlife

theguzman wrote: »

When someone of the calibre and integrity of him is supporting Brexit it just shows how rotten the EU is and how the elitist Europhile liberals are trying everything to prevent the democratic wish of the British people to regain their Independence. Polls shows Farages new Brexit party in pole position and will romp to victory as the British people are entrenched even further for a hard brexit. If there was a new referendum now over two thirds would vote to leave. The sycophants pontificating for the EU have lost and their undemocratic attempts have only served to harden peoples opinions even more.

Salty.

Maybe he just sees it as the best way out of Europe and others see differently.

Does everyone have to be rotten, sychophantic etc?

A bit of maturity to this debate over the last few years would have helped no end.

listermint

theguzman wrote: »

When someone of the calibre and integrity of him is supporting Brexit it just shows how rotten the EU is and how the elitist Europhile liberals are trying everything to prevent the democratic wish of the British people to regain their Independence. Polls shows Farages new Brexit party in pole position and will romp to victory as the British people are entrenched even further for a hard brexit. If there was a new referendum now over two thirds would vote to leave. The sycophants pontificating for the EU have lost and their undemocratic attempts have only served to harden peoples opinions even more.

Galloway integrity and calibre..


Having a laugh, right ?

Leroy42

Leroy42 wrote: »

It is really up to EU citizens living in the UK to step up and vote. If for nothing else than simply to protect themselves.

There should be a massive turnout for the EU elections

There probably will be, these elections will act as a proxy for another referendum. Any future referendum would quite likely mirror the outcome of these elections quite well.


Canvassers will be asked whether the party id pro or anti Brexit and will vote accordingly.

Tell me how

theguzman wrote: »

When someone of the calibre and integrity of him is supporting Brexit it just shows how rotten the EU is and how the elitist Europhile liberals are trying everything to prevent the democratic wish of the British people to regain their Independence. Polls shows Farages new Brexit party in pole position and will romp to victory as the British people are entrenched even further for a hard brexit. If there was a new referendum now over two thirds would vote to leave. The sycophants pontificating for the EU have lost and their undemocratic attempts have only served to harden peoples opinions even more.

Whats your view on Vote Leave and Leave.EU both being found to having broken the law in the lead up to the original referendum.

What's democratic about that?

Check out Carole Cadwalladr's TED Talk.

CelticRambler

theguzman wrote: »

the elitist Europhile liberals are trying everything to prevent the democratic wish of the British people to regain their Independence.

Remind us again: when, exactly, did the British people lose their Independence? I'm presuming you're referring to the status of the United Kingdom of GB&NI (as a whole) ... although your use of a capital "I" could suggest that you are, in fact, referring to HMS Independence - in which case I don't think the Europhile liberals can do much to prevent the Brits from trying to recover her from the salty depths of the West Indies, however fruitless that aspiration may be. :P

Or are you referring to the individual consitutent countries of Britain, in which case is it safe to assume that you believe the Europhile liberals are preventing the democratic wishes of the Bristish Scots and the Northern Irish who identify as British to regain their Independence from the English monarchy?

theguzman

Tell me how wrote: »

Whats your view on Vote Leave and Leave.EU both being found to having broken the law in the lead up to the original referendum.

What's democratic about that?

Check out Carole Cadwalladr's TED Talk.

Who cares they are better off out and make their own laws as would Ireland also, the EU is a Franco/German colonial project about control, its very beginnings were in the bunkers of Berlin as the Red Army approached at the end of WWII. Do you think the rebels in the GPO were terrorists for breaking the law of British control at the time? Because your argument in analogous to that.

ancapailldorcha

Video only and off topic posts deleted.

Infini

theguzman wrote: »

Who cares they are better off out and make their own laws as would Ireland also, the EU is a Franco/German colonial project about control, its very beginnings were in the bunkers of Berlin as the Red Army approached at the end of WWII. Do you think the rebels in the GPO were terrorists for breaking the law of British control at the time? Because your argument in analogous to that.

And once again the conspiracy theories come out that have no bearing whatsoever to the reality of the situation aka the fact that the 2 biggest power-blocks were the USA and USSR post the WW2 ruination of Europe and the EU was an attempt to create a peaceful union of state's to rival them so as not to be thrown under tbe bus by them which succeeded as the EU has quite a bit of soft power especially in the area of quality control and standards today.

The rebels in 1916 fought against Britain because Britain was doing a shíte job and in general were governed by too many fools with a superiority complex which ultimately imploded once the wheels finally came off the Imperial Bus post WW2. As for Brexit is a project by idiots to fool others into thinking the EU is the problem when the fault lies sorely on the incompetent running of their country and government.

Brexit is a scam by conspiracy theorist's, Toxic media outlets trying to boost their sales, disaster capitalists trying to profit on the British people's ignorance and stupidity and nationalistic tools like the DUP who refuse to accept their own failures rather than acknowledge them and try and fix them. It's fueled by a mixture of both ignorance of the real running of the EU and arrogance of those who are too damn stubborn if not outright stupid to accept heir own countries failings and instead of fixing them blame someone else.

I'll be honest I hate it when good people will end up suffering because the arrogant stupidity of the countrymen blinds them to their sheer idiocy of this whole thing and honestly wish cancerous idiots like Mogg's and Boris would get their comeuppance for being so utterly dense and stupid but there's time I wonder if there needs to be a Brexit so the utter failure of this can be seen once and for all so those idiots who keep supporting this can be told to just "shut up, your wrong, you have no facts to back up your arguments and until such a time you actually can make a Coherent argument, just sit down and shut up and stop fúcking up things for everyone else because you cant admit your fúcking wrong".

It's so utterly frustrating at time's that this level of stupity has been allowed to go on this long, Human Stupidity is truly the cancer of this existence I swear...

jochenstacker

SNIP. No more one-liners please.

Zubeneschamali

theguzman wrote: »

Do you think the rebels in the GPO were terrorists for breaking the law of British control at the time?

Yes, of course.

They also rebelled in direct disobedience to the orders of their commander in the Irish Volunteers who thought a rebellion would be crushed with many civilian deaths.

Which was their plan - get crushed, die martyred spectacularly, inspire others.

Hmmm.

And the Brits obliged, and now Pearse is a saint instead of a rabid extremist.

LeinsterDub

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/17/theresa-may-could-put-off-queens-speech-amid-brexit-turmoil

The UK continues it's slide towards a dictatorship. You may say I'm being hyperbolic but when you've an unwritten constitution based on the most recent precedent it's not hard to imagine May's recent behavior being the foothold those individuals would use