Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Seth Brundle

EKRIUQ wrote: »

Now that they adverted one of the most influential decisions since world war 2, do you think it's just go play out like next summer holidays, back mid September bit of a panic until October 31st and then another extension.

Well given the tweet above, they are still repeating the same old unsuccesful steps of thinking that they can reopen the negotiations despite knowing that there will be no more negotiations.
The outcome of the EU elections will be interesting.

Harry Palmr

Bojo's sister Rachel is standing for ChangeUK in the Euros. So is Gavin Esler, presumably he'll be on gardening leave if he hasn't resigned from the BBC.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/23/change-uk-independent-group-launches-european-election-campaign-brexit

gmisk

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Bojo's sister Rachel is standing for ChangeUK in the Euros. So is Gavin Esler, presumably he'll be on gardening leave if he hasn't resigned from the BBC.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/23/change-uk-independent-group-launches-european-election-campaign-brexit

Im pretty sure Esler hasnt worked for the bbc since 2017

Professor Moriarty

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Bojo's sister Rachel is standing for ChangeUK in the Euros. So is Gavin Esler, presumably he'll be on gardening leave if he hasn't resigned from the BBC.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/23/change-uk-independent-group-launches-european-election-campaign-brexit

Bojo's brother, Jo (he's still a Tory MP), is campaigning for a second referendum.

reslfj

Sam Russell wrote: »

I do not think there will be another extension.

Next October, there will be a new Commission, with a new Commission President. Also there will be a new European Parliament, with a new EP President. I am not sure whether Michel Barnier will still be in place.

The European Council will be the same though.

So, the players will be different on the EU side.

... - Revoke or Good bye, since the WA will still not be ratified.

It's the Council that matters almost everything, when it comes to A50 and an extension. The Council it will not change much (maybe a few new PMs)

But if the UK chooses 'Good bye' it will almost immediately face practical and economical conditions which will force it to ask the EU27 for new negotiations. The UK will have even less cards than it has now.

The conditions in the WA will the be a prerequisite from the EU27 in any negotiations.

The EU27 is not playing games - this will much be a British exercise in saying "Aye Aye" - loud and clear.

WA means WA.

The options for the UK are, as I see them:

• Revoke A50
• Ratify the WA and get transition
• No deal, accept WA terms without transition

Lars

ancapailldorcha

The problem with denying an extension is that it effectively means kicking out a member state against its will. If it were the UK's desire to leave then they wouldn't have sought an extension. Denying them an extension effectively means throwing Ireland and Northern Ireland under a bus which the EU can't do. I'm still quite shocked that Macron expended so much political capital to grant only a brief reprieve.

I dearly hope that the Conservatives use this time constructively but my hopes aren't high. I can't see anything changing without at least a general election.

Hurrache

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Bojo's sister Rachel is standing for ChangeUK in the Euros. So is Gavin Esler, presumably he'll be on gardening leave if he hasn't resigned from the BBC.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/23/change-uk-independent-group-launches-european-election-campaign-brexit

So is the former Polish Deputy Prime Minister and former minister of finance, Jan Vincent Rostowski.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm still quite shocked that Macron expended so much political capital to grant only a brief reprieve.

He was far from alone, Verhofstadt has since come out publicly against the granting of the extension period.

listermint

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The problem with denying an extension is that it effectively means kicking out a member state against its will. If it were the UK's desire to leave then they wouldn't have sought an extension. Denying them an extension effectively means throwing Ireland and Northern Ireland under a bus which the EU can't do. I'm still quite shocked that Macron expended so much political capital to grant only a brief reprieve.

I dearly hope that the Conservatives use this time constructively but my hopes aren't high. I can't see anything changing without at least a general election.

We have to disagree on this point.

The UK Triggered Article 50.

briany

listermint wrote: »

We have to disagree on this point.

The UK Triggered Article 50.

It was also judged that A50 could be revoked, and obviously it's a legal thing to extend the time limit, because it's been done twice.

On a more human level, it would be unfair to kick the UK out where the majority of its electorate, as things stand, may well prefer to remain, given the 'revelations' (not that they should have been such to anyone studying the matter) of the complications and implications. And if it were that the majority preferred to remain, they'd be getting cut loose due to the ineptitude, bluster and division of their politicians. And that's not something the electorate is really in control of (not within the Brexit timeframe, anyway) because a GE is being staunchly refused.

On a legal level, though, it would be fair to kick the UK out, and that could still well happen if the UK's politicians use the remaining time to twiddle their thumbs and snipe across the aisle.

Strazdas

iguana wrote: »

Hopefully enough people in the UK actually realise that there is an election for MEPs that they can and should vote on. A totally eye opening thread here on how utterly clueless the British population is about the democracy of the EU.

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3557057-eu-elections-how-to-vote

British media coverage of the EU was virtually non-existent for the last 20 years, other than to suggest it was this undemocratic foreign thing going on in the background that was messing the UK around.

ancapailldorcha

listermint wrote: »

We have to disagree on this point.

The UK Triggered Article 50.

2 years ago.

Now we have an extension of 6 months, give or take. The only way we can know the will of the people for sure is a plebiscite which is precisely why May, Johnson, Rees-Mogg & Co. are so opposed to one.

reslfj

listermint wrote: »

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The problem with denying an extension is that it effectively means kicking out a member state against its will....

We have to disagree on this point.

The UK Triggered Article 50.

And the UK got a 7 months A50 extension with a clear message about using "the extra time in the best way possible".

If the UK decides for the cliff - so be it.
"Gegen Dummheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens" /Talbot English

The RoI-NI border may suffer a short while. But this will be infinitely better than no backstop on the island of Ireland.

Lars

Silent Running

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

2 years ago.

Now we have an extension of 6 months, give or take. The only way we can know the will of the people for sure is a plebiscite which is precisely why May, Johnson, Rees-Mogg & Co. are so opposed to one.

But isn't this just saying that the small Eurosceptic wing of the conservative party are in control of the destiny of the UK?

If the majority of the house of commons wanted a peoples vote it would surely happen.

Carrying on along the path of a no deal Brexit would indicate that they want out and are just looking to throw shade on the EU to appease their voters come the next election. When living becomes harder after a no deal exit, they can say "but the EU threw us out"

Seth Brundle

Silent Running wrote: »

But isn't this just saying that the small Eurosceptic wing of the conservative party are in control of the destiny of the UK?

If the majority of the house of commons wanted a peoples vote it would surely happen.

...but currently there isn't really a clear majority in WM who want the same thing.

ancapailldorcha

Silent Running wrote: »

But isn't this just saying that the small Eurosceptic wing of the conservative party are in control of the destiny of the UK?

If the majority of the house of commons wanted a peoples vote it would surely happen.

Carrying on along the path of a no deal Brexit would indicate that they want out and are just looking to throw shade on the EU to appease their voters come the next election. When living becomes harder after a no deal exit, they can say "but the EU threw us out"

It is because they are. May has no majority so she's had to buttress her own right wing Eurosceptics with the DUP.

Politicians are as self-interested as anyone else. They don't want no deal Brexit. That's what they want least as evinced by the indicative votes. What they're split on are the other options as the various Remain factions have little to no capacity for cooperation. Also, none of them want to be tarred and feathered as being anti-democratic for the next election.

RobertKK

There are idiots and that may not be parliamentary language around here...but there are people of this ilk still talking about the Malthouse compromise. Talking of Nigel Evan MP who was on Sky News.
I mean one would have to be foolish to keep beating a dead and by now rotten horse thinking it somehow has life, given the EU would never accept it.
For some of these people it is like they are unable to understand the real issues and think if they keep saying something, like speaking louder to someone who doesn't understand your language as if it would somehow make it easier to understand.
When something makes no sense because it is senseless, then its time to stop...

Zubeneschamali

briany wrote: »

On a more human level, it would be unfair to kick the UK out where the majority of its electorate, as things stand, may well prefer to remain, given the 'revelations' (not that they should have been such to anyone study

On an economic level, it would cost the EU billions of Euros for no benefit whatsoever, apart from removing uncertainty about whether the EU was going to lose billions and replacing it with the certainty that yes, they are.

briany

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It is because they are. May has no majority so she's had to buttress her own right wing Eurosceptics with the DUP.

Politicians are as self-interested as anyone else. They don't want no deal Brexit. That's what they want least as evinced by the indicative votes. What they're split on are the other options as the various Remain factions have little to no capacity for cooperation. Also, none of them want to be tarred and feathered as being anti-democratic for the next election.

The crux of the Brexit farce has been MPs attempting to placate two diametrically opposed sides.

There are two things UK MPs have to realise collectively,

1) They're going to take a licking at the next GE no matter what they do

2) Some things are more important than holding onto your job as an MP

So I would say the MPs should simply vote their conscience on the matter, and let the UK public vote theirs, and let the chips fall as they may.

Leroy42

briany wrote: »

So I would say the MPs should simply vote their conscience on the matter, and let the UK public vote theirs, and let the chips fall as they may.

You are new to this politics game aren't you!:)

Leonard Hofstadter

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Bojo's brother, Jo (he's still a Tory MP), is campaigning for a second referendum.

And isn't his father looking to be a Tory MEP (albeit one that still favours remain)?

ancapailldorcha

briany wrote: »

The crux of the Brexit farce has been MPs attempting to placate two diametrically opposed sides.

There are two things UK MPs have to realise collectively,

1) They're going to take a licking at the next GE no matter what they do

2) Some things are more important than holding onto your job as an MP

So I would say the MPs should simply vote their conscience on the matter, and let the UK public vote theirs, and let the chips fall as they may.

On your first point, what does it mean to take a licking? Just about the only thing holding the Conservatives together is the prospect of a Socialist Prime Minister. The only thing holding Labour together is their opposition to the Conservatives. Neither party seems popular enough to win a convincing majority. Meanwhile, the only visible and focused party in the land only contests elections in Scotland. First Past the Post means that votes for Change UK and the Lib Dems will be wasted in most seats and that's before you consider that they'll just split each other's votes.

Your second point depends on whether or not you're an MP looking to keep being an MP. I'm sure Ken Clarke would happily ditch his seat if it meant cancelling Brexit. He's sadly in the minority. When I went to the March on the 23rd of March the most important banner I saw was for Conservatives against Brexit. I recall walking past one large central London residence whereupon a stocky, Boris Johnson-esque figure emerged, held his hands up smiling and apologised loudly for Brexit.

The point I am trying to make is that while the Eurosceptics might only be a minority, they are basically running the show. The threat of being outed as anti-democratic is very real to many MP's. Then you have the likes of Nigel Farage wittering on about putting "the fear of God" into them to say nothing of a recent foiled far right assassination attempt on Labour MP Rosie Cooper (Source).

Until more Tories are brave enough to come out as anti-Brexit then it looks like the UK's membership of the EU continues only at Emmanuel Macron's pleasure.

briany

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

On your first point, what does it mean to take a licking? Just about the only thing holding the Conservatives together is the prospect of a Socialist Prime Minister. The only thing holding Labour together is their opposition to the Conservatives. Neither party seems popular enough to win a convincing majority. Meanwhile, the only visible and focused party in the land only contests elections in Scotland. First Past the Post means that votes for Change UK and the Lib Dems will be wasted in most seats and that's before you consider that they'll just split each other's votes.

Your second point depends on whether or not you're an MP looking to keep being an MP. I'm sure Ken Clarke would happily ditch his seat if it meant cancelling Brexit. He's sadly in the minority. When I went to the March on the 23rd of March the most important banner I saw was for Conservatives against Brexit. I recall walking past one large central London residence whereupon a stocky, Boris Johnson-esque figure emerged, held his hands up smiling and apologised loudly for Brexit.

The point I am trying to make is that while the Eurosceptics might only be a minority, they are basically running the show. The threat of being outed as anti-democratic is very real to many MP's. Then you have the likes of Nigel Farage wittering on about putting "the fear of God" into them to say nothing of a recent foiled far right assassination attempt on Labour MP Rosie Cooper (Source).

Until more Tories are brave enough to come out as anti-Brexit then it looks like the UK's membership of the EU continues only at Emmanuel Macron's pleasure.

What I'm talking about in 'taking a licking' is that if the UK goes Remain or hard Brexit, they're going to face anger and hostility from around one half of the electorate. If the UK even goes soft Brexit, you're going to have anger and hostility from one half of either half. It obviously won't be that every MP is going to get voted out of office, but the ones who do, I expect it to happen with extra vociferousness. That anti-democratic thing goes both ways, by either trying to stifle the result of the 2016 ref, or prevent a new one from happening, and it's a brush that will be used to tar, liberally.

I realise that not every MP is desperately trying to cling onto their job, but I don't think that country above seat & party is the prevailing mindset either. Good eggs like Ken Clarke aren't enough on this one. If the UK parliament as a whole is happy to let Farage and the ERG cow them as being anti-democratic, then that ultimately falls on their own shoulders.

ancapailldorcha

briany wrote: »

What I'm talking about in 'taking a licking' is that if the UK goes Remain or hard Brexit, they're going to face anger and hostility from around one half of the electorate. If the UK even goes soft Brexit, you're going to have anger and hostility from one half of either half. It obviously won't be that every MP is going to get voted out of office, but the ones who do, I expect it to happen with extra vociferousness. That anti-democratic thing goes both ways, by either trying to stifle the result of the 2016 ref, or prevent a new one from happening, and it's a brush that will be used to tar, liberally.

I realise that not every MP is desperately trying to cling onto their job, but I don't think that country above seat & party is the prevailing mindset either. Good eggs like Ken Clarke aren't enough on this one. If the UK parliament as a whole is happy to let Farage and the ERG cow them as being anti-democratic, then that ultimately falls on their own shoulders.

I'd say that a no deal Brexit will leave both sides being rather hostile and aggressive. For that reason alone, it'd be better to have the referendum sooner rather than later so the whole thing can be aborted.

As much as I want to stay in, soft Brexit is objectively inferior to full EU membership which leads the Remain side to crap all over it when they should look at taking it seriously.

I have no idea how a GE might pan out. Polls are of limited use at the moment as they don't count manifestos and policy commitments.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1120723151892221953

They really want that second vote! Owe wait it's for a second attempt at May's head. The corrupt and dishonest vote of nearly 3 years ago must be respected

Headshot

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1120723151892221953

They really want that second vote! Owe wait it's for a second attempt at May's head. The corrupt and dishonest vote of nearly 3 years ago must be respected

ah sure the public cannot have a 2nd vote though

such hypocrisy but is not a surprise though

briany

Headshot wrote: »

ah sure the public cannot have a 2nd vote though

such hypocrisy but is not a surprise though

The Remain wing of the party should stipulate that they'll help push a motion of no-confidence through if the Leave wing vote in favour of a 2nd referendum.

judeboy101

Looks like TM will walk by the 31st of May

https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2019/0423/1045118-trump-uk-visit/

LeinsterDub

judeboy101 wrote: »

Looks like TM will walk by the 31st of May

https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2019/0423/1045118-trump-uk-visit/

Where are you getting that from?

LeinsterDub

briany wrote: »

The Remain wing of the party should stipulate that they'll help push a motion of no-confidence through if the Leave wing vote in favour of a 2nd referendum.

The leavers would never agree to that. They are terrified they'll not be able to sell the same pack of lies again

briany

LeinsterDub wrote: »

The leavers would never agree to that. They are terrified they'll not be able to sell the same pack of lies again

Well then, they shouldn't get a second no-confidence vote. If they fail to acknowledge the hypocrisy of their attitude to a second NC vote vs a second ref, then they should at best get no change in the current scenario and political momentum.