Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Guy Verhofstadt, the European Parliament's representative in the Brexit negotiations, was scathing in his criticism of the British being given this extension. He really did not mince his words on RTÉ News Now a minute ago.

'...I fear that it will continue uncertainty. I fear that it will prolong the indecision. And I fear most of all that will import the Brexit mess into the European Union. And moreover that it will poison the upcoming European election.'

The man is 100% correct. Time and time again we hear business people and their representatives declare that business needs stability above all else. This extension entirely depends on the British getting their act together, but they are so deep into their intraparty and interparty games that any type of consensus British approach is not even on the cards. Consequently, all we are doing is facilitating and encouraging instability by giving them more time to play the EU scapegoating games they've been playing for the past 40 years. The EU has tried everything. Cut the cord and let them sink. Every single analysis of Brexit comes to the same conclusion: Britain will suffer far more than any other state. Let them have a merciless wake-up call where all these conceits of worldpower status are brought down for once and for all. The reckoning. Then, once their delusions have had the kick up the arse that the Germans had from 1943, they can come back to the civilised world as a more humble and acceptable society.

Capt'n Midnight

Latest news. Or rather non-news.

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briany

Deleted User wrote: »

Guy Verhofstadt, the European Parliament's representative in the Brexit negotiations, was scathing in his criticism of the British being given this extension. He really did not mince his words on RTÉ News Now a minute ago.



The man is 100% correct. Time and time again we hear business people and their representatives declare that business needs stability above all else. This extension entirely depends on the British getting their act together, but they are so deep into their intraparty and interparty games that any type of consensus British approach is not even on the cards. Consequently, all we are doing is facilitating and encouraging instability by giving them more time to play the EU scapegoating games they've been playing for the past 40 years. The EU has tried everything. Cut the cord and let them sink. Every single analysis of Brexit comes to the same conclusion: Britain will suffer far more than any other state. Let them have a merciless wake-up call where all these conceits of worldpower status are brought down for once and for all. The reckoning. Then, once their delusions have had the kick up the arse that the Germans had from 1943, they can come back to the civilised world as a more humble and acceptable society.

If we wait on the British to become more level-headed in the wake of a no-deal Brexit and the economic hardship it might bring, I think we'll be waiting some time.

What happened to Germany was the complete ruination of their country, and I mean that in the literal sense. A no-deal Brexit may bring on prolonged recession, and a continued regression in civil & political discourse, but that would still be leagues behind Germany's 'humbling' in the mid 1940s, and it would still leave room for scapegoating and for the architects of the whole thing to exist comfortably in their private gated residences.

I'm not going to pretend that continuing uncertainty over the UK's future in the EU is a great situation, because it's obviously not, but nor is cutting the UK loose in an atmosphere of mutual hostility, such that you end up with this rogue state right in the middle of the EU bloc. We have to be aware that the current situation has the potential to turn even more bitter if the UK is simply booted out, and while there is the chance for sanity to prevail, we should keep that candle burning.

fly_agaric

briany wrote: »

I'm not going to pretend that continuing uncertainty over the UK's future in the EU is a great situation, because it's obviously not, but nor is cutting the UK loose in an atmosphere of mutual hostility, such that you end up with this rogue state right in the middle of the EU bloc. We have to be aware that the current situation has the potential to turn even more bitter if the UK is simply booted out, and while there is the chance for sanity to prevail, we should keep that candle burning.

I'm finding it hard to see political system in the UK emerging with any solutions before Halloween, let alone the end of May (in either sense maybe?!). How does it happen? It seems deadlocked. Could it even continue on until next date general election is due if allowed (given how reluctant the ruling party + their allies are to put themselves before the people)? So what then I wonder? An indefinite lets take it day by day extension? Can there be any changes at all made in the EU itself while one of the main member states has a big cloud hanging over its membership status and commitments? I suppose the EU will have to wait in a sort of holding pattern for the UK to "find itself" however long that might take + pray that no other existential crises present themselves in the mean time!

Strazdas

fly_agaric wrote: »

I'm finding it hard to see political system in the UK emerging with any solutions before Halloween, let alone the end of May (in either sense maybe?!). How does it happen? It seems deadlocked. Could it even continue on until next date general election is due if allowed (given how reluctant the ruling party + their allies are to put themselves before the people)? So what then I wonder? An indefinite lets take it day by day extension? Can there be any changes at all made in the EU itself while one of the main member states has a big cloud hanging over its membership status and commitments? I suppose the EU will have to wait in a sort of holding pattern for the UK to "find itself" however long that might take + pray that no other existential crises present themselves in the mean time!

One theory I've heard is that the EU may be quietly preparing for a No Deal exit at Halloween. They may be thinking they are dealing with a basket case country and a basket case electorate. The simplest thing to do may be to cast the UK adrift and take things from there.

Zubeneschamali

Strazdas wrote: »

The simplest thing to do may be to cast the UK adrift and take things from there.

At the moment, we are uncertain if there is going to be no change, a change for the worse, or an utter disaster. I don't really understand how kicking the UK out with no deal and causing the utter disaster is a good thing simply to be rid of the uncertainty.


It's a bit like saying I don't like the uncertainty waiting for results after a set of tests at the doctors, so I'll poison myself to end the uncertainty. Definitely going to die now, but at least I have certainty!

First Up

Strazdas wrote:

One theory I've heard is that the EU may be quietly preparing for a No Deal exit at Halloween. They may be thinking they are dealing with a basket case country and a basket case electorate. The simplest thing to do may be to cast the UK adrift and take things from there.

Its not a theory and its not being done quietly. The EU (Ireland included) is preparing for all eventualities, including No Deal and have been open and clear about it. The EU is well used to dealing with basket cases.

And it won't be the EU casting the UK adrift; the EU agreed terms with the UK months ago. Its the UK that can't decide what it wants and may end up cutting itself adrift.

McGiver

Deleted User wrote:

The man is 100% correct. Time and time again we hear business people and their representatives declare that business needs stability above all else. This extension entirely depends on the British getting their act together, but they are so deep into their intraparty and interparty games that any type of consensus British approach is not even on the cards. Consequently, all we are doing is facilitating and encouraging instability by giving them more time to play the EU scapegoating games they've been playing for the past 40 years. The EU has tried everything. Cut the cord and let them sink. Every single analysis of Brexit comes to the same conclusion: Britain will suffer far more than any other state. Let them have a merciless wake-up call where all these conceits of worldpower status are brought down for once and for all. The reckoning. Then, once their delusions have had the kick up the arse that the Germans had from 1943, they can come back to the civilised world as a more humble and acceptable society.

True but the problem with this is that it may become a British Versailles moment leading to literary fascist government.

Zubeneschamali

First Up wrote: »

And it won't be the EU casting the UK adrift;

When the UK requests another extension, if the EU says no it will be the EU casting the UK adrift.

Unless, of course, rejecting the extension forces them ratify the WA or revoke A50, but this is a gamble with stakes in the tens of billions of euros. The EU will take the path of lower risk and give another, longer extension.

First Up

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

When the UK requests another extension, if the EU says no it will be the EU casting the UK adrift.

Unless, of course, rejecting the extension forces them ratify the WA or revoke A50, but this is a gamble with stakes in the tens of billions of euros. The EU will take the path of lower risk and give another, longer extension.

I doubt that very much.

20silkcut

briany wrote: »

If we wait on the British to become more level-headed in the wake of a no-deal Brexit and the economic hardship it might bring, I think we'll be waiting some time.

What happened to Germany was the complete ruination of their country, and I mean that in the literal sense. A no-deal Brexit may bring on prolonged recession, and a continued regression in civil & political discourse, but that would still be leagues behind Germany's 'humbling' in the mid 1940s, and it would still leave room for scapegoating and for the architects of the whole thing to exist comfortably in their private gated residences.

I'm not going to pretend that continuing uncertainty over the UK's future in the EU is a great situation, because it's obviously not, but nor is cutting the UK loose in an atmosphere of mutual hostility, such that you end up with this rogue state right in the middle of the EU bloc. We have to be aware that the current situation has the potential to turn even more bitter if the UK is simply booted out, and while there is the chance for sanity to prevail, we should keep that candle burning.

I agree there is no guarantee that a no deal brexit will bring Britain to its senses.
If you look at the example of Rhodesia in the 70’s it survived fine as a pariah state trading with one or two countries until the Portuguese pulled the plug.
Britain would not be even nearly as shunned as they were.

reslfj

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

When the UK requests another extension, if the EU says no it will be the EU casting the UK adrift.

Unless, of course, rejecting the extension forces them ratify the WA or revoke A50, but this is a gamble with stakes in the tens of billions of euros....

The EU /Donald Tusk has clearly urged the UK to use "the extra time in the best way possible"

If the UK doesn't use the time constructively and can't itself agree within the space of time and realism, no other than the UK get the blame for the consequences of jumping the cliff by November 1.
It will be ugly, very ugly indeed, but mainly in the UK. Ireland is small and will have the full support including the open markets of all 440 EU26 countries.

The UK will not even be tricked into any corner, but can choose much better options including the very best: Revoke A50.
The EU will wait until the very deadline.

Your billions of Euros sounds a lot, but it is, nevertheless, very, very affordable for the EU27 economy, which will continue to have its 445 mill SM - best in the world.

The EU27 additionally has a full set of trade deals and other deals with the rest of the world - including Japan, Canada, South Korea, Singapore plus more coming up e.g. Mercosur, AUNZ.
The EU have many well working agreements with US and China too. Note trade-incompetent Trump will not last forever.

Lars

Donald Trump

Deleted User wrote: »

Guy Verhofstadt, the European Parliament's representative in the Brexit negotiations, was scathing in his criticism of the British being given this extension. He really did not mince his words on RTÉ News Now a minute ago.



The man is 100% correct. Time and time again we hear business people and their representatives declare that business needs stability above all else. This extension entirely depends on the British getting their act together, but they are so deep into their intraparty and interparty games that any type of consensus British approach is not even on the cards. Consequently, all we are doing is facilitating and encouraging instability by giving them more time to play the EU scapegoating games they've been playing for the past 40 years. The EU has tried everything. Cut the cord and let them sink. Every single analysis of Brexit comes to the same conclusion: Britain will suffer far more than any other state. Let them have a merciless wake-up call where all these conceits of worldpower status are brought down for once and for all. The reckoning. Then, once their delusions have had the kick up the arse that the Germans had from 1943, they can come back to the civilised world as a more humble and acceptable society.

While you are correct, there is a value to giving them "one too many" chances. EU are giving the UK every possible opportunity to roll back and see sense. Most people are certain that they won't, but at least it will make it more difficult for Brexiteers in UK to blame EU for pushing them out and retalliation later on. What would be the point of that? - Well it would mean those Brexiteers would have to take responsibility for the shambles with their electorate. Which might lead to more sensible people in government in the future for any possible relationships and deals.

briany wrote: »

What happened to Germany was the complete ruination of their country, and I mean that in the literal sense. A no-deal Brexit may bring on prolonged recession, and a continued regression in civil & political discourse, but that would still be leagues behind Germany's 'humbling' in the mid 1940s

Don't mention the War!





(I am reminded of the BBC gaffe where they showed footage of WWII bombers on a story about TM going to Brussels)

Sam Russell

I think a lot will depend on the nature of the EU Parliament and Commission. It will be all new, and if they are both strongly of the mind that the UK must decide what they want, then the UK will not get an extension.

They have the same choices they have had since the WA was agreed -
1: Revoke,
2: Ratify the WA, or
3: crash out with No Deal.

Those three choices will still be there at Halloween. They can dress them up a bit by having a 2nd ref or a GE, but they are the same choices. To a certain degree, No Deal has been taken off the table, but it is the default.

In the end the UK will choose, not the EU. All the EU can do is give them more time, but there has to be an end to uncertainty.

An Ciarraioch

Here we go - Indyref 2 by 2021, though will she proceed if the UK remains in the Single Market and/or the Customs Union?

http://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1121037007067729920

Shelga

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Here we go - Indyref 2 by 2021, though will she proceed if the UK remains in the Single Market and/or the Customs Union?

http://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1121037007067729920

I don’t really get the benefit of Scotland becoming independent right now, especially in the event of a hard Brexit. They will face all of the same border issues as Northern Ireland and so much instability.

I get it from a, we’re sick of being screwed over by England, mentality, but I don’t see how it can work practically. It’s not in Scotland’s interest for a hard Brexit no matter what happens re. their independence, so IMO Sturgeon should be putting her efforts into preventing that right now. Leave the independence issue for now.

ancapailldorcha

20silkcut wrote: »

I agree there is no guarantee that a no deal brexit will bring Britain to its senses.
If you look at the example of Rhodesia in the 70’s it survived fine as a pariah state trading with one or two countries until the Portuguese pulled the plug.
Britain would not be even nearly as shunned as they were.

Britain is primarily a services-based economy. Services are provided by people, many of whom are migrants and of those, plenty have gotten the very clear message that they're not welcome here. That many of these people are Europeans means they can just up sticks and head home or to France or Germany which seem to be quite welcoming.

Rhodesia's trade was likely to be goods based in which scenario, those things it exported (and slaves, presumably) had to come from that specific region. Britain's manufacturers can simply relocate to a much less capricious EU state and continue as they were though it would mean some pain in the short term. Banks, Insurers and other providers or services would have a less painful ordeal to endure.

Ultimately, Britain wouldn't too badly hit in a no deal. What I think would happen is that certain industries would be sacrificed for the good of the nation. British agriculture would be first to go to allow in New Zealandic Lamb, Australian Beef and American Chicken at zero tariffs to keep things going for example.

It's the political consequences which are both worrying and hard to speculate on. We don't know how the US would react to the GFA being cast aside for Brexit for example. We've heard encouraging sounds but whether or not the President ultimately cares is something I'd prefer not to think about. As working class communities are further devastated and the poor must bear a heavier burden for the millions of Britain's Rees-Moggs and the ambitions of its Boris Johnsons, it is likely to empower a nastier version of the extreme right than we have now and that's bad for both Britain and Europe.

An Ciarraioch

Jeremy Hunt engages in a tediously childish spat with the French Ambassador to the US:

http://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1121023834453364737

CrabRevolution

That's remarkably childish and simple minded, even for a hard core brexiter.

And as many replies state, there's an enormous French statue in New York that has become synonymous with America itself....

reslfj

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

...
British agriculture would be first to go to allow in New Zealandic Lamb, Australian Beef and American Chicken at zero tariffs to keep things going for example.

If the UK lowers its tariffs for e.g. NZ/AU meat, such low tariffs will be applied to import from the all other countries including the EU - due to WTO rules on MFN tariffs.

The EU's export to the UK including the Irish export will then maintain its full competitiveness. But the UK agriculture (and fish) export to the EU27 will suffer badly as the EU tariffs will not be lowered - some may even be adjusted upwards.

When the EU agrees FTAs with other countries (except US and China plus maybe India) it will not be easy for such countries to make other new more favourable deals with any nonEU country.

Lars

ancapailldorcha

reslfj wrote: »

If the UK lowers its tariffs for e.g. NZ/AU meat, such low tariffs will be applied to import from the all other countries including the EU - due to WTO rules on MFN tariffs.

The EU's export to the UK including the Irish export will then maintain its full competitiveness. But the UK agriculture (and fish) export to the EU27 will suffer badly as the EU tariffs will not be lowered - some may even be adjusted upwards.

When the EU agrees FTAs with other countries (except US and China plus maybe India) it will not be easy for such countries to make other new more favourable deals with any nonEU country.

Lars

True. Unless they decide that the World Trade Organisation can be ignored. Remember that Trump is on a crusade to render it as toothless as possible by opposing the appointment of new judges.

In any case, the point is ensuring adequate food and they'll sacrifice their own farmers and fishermen for this no question.

briany

reslfj wrote: »

If the UK lowers its tariffs for e.g. NZ/AU meat, such low tariffs will be applied to import from the all other countries including the EU - due to WTO rules on MFN tariffs.

The EU's export to the UK including the Irish export will then maintain its full competitiveness. But the UK agriculture (and fish) export to the EU27 will suffer badly as the EU tariffs will not be lowered - some may even be adjusted upwards.

I assume that the UK will try to get around that by cutting a quickie trade deal with New Zealand. Surely, they would figure, one of the dominions would be chomping at the bit to establish direct economic ties with the motherland.

ancapailldorcha

briany wrote: »

I assume that the UK will try to get around that by cutting a quickie trade deal with New Zealand. Surely, they would figure, one of the dominions would be chomping at the bit to establish direct economic ties with the motherland.

No idea how I neglected this.

But yes. Well said. It would give them a quick win but they'd have to abolish tariffs in return.

Leroy42

You can be certain that the UK will sign off some trade deals really quickly. They will be sold as the proof that Brexit was right all along and that the EU is failing.

Of course the media and general public won't ever actually question the trade deals themselves. What it actually contains. Get in cheap NZ lamb, regardless of the price.

Much akin to the recent years influx of Russian money in UK property and the investment by China. People only see the benefits but there are clear costs. But the likes of Fox, Johnson etc will be log gone before any of that becomes apparent.

reslfj

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think a lot will depend on the nature of the EU Parliament and Commission. It will be all new, and if they are both strongly of the mind that the UK must decide what they want, then the UK will not get an extension.

Sam, the Commission is not taking the decisions, they are negotiating following a mandate from the EU Council (PMs) The Commission is - just - the civil services of the EU.

An A50 extension is 100% the EU Council, not the EU Commission. A50 doesn't include the EU parliament in the extension decision either. The EU parliament can stop a deal when it is asked to approve it.

The EU parliament may have some leverage with some PMs/governments too, but this will be politically based, not anything legal.

A potential interesting question will be the EU negotiators will allow a change to the length/end date of the transition period(s), if the UK ratifies the WA before October 31.

Lars

A Dub in Glasgo

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Here we go - Indyref 2 by 2021, though will she proceed if the UK remains in the Single Market and/or the Customs Union?

http://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1121037007067729920

Nothing new in that speech. The Scottish Parliament has already passed the motion about another independence referendum. The UK Government have refused to grant the Section 30 order and there is nothing from Sturgeon today about how the Scottish Parliament will get around that

ancapailldorcha

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Nothing new in that speech. The Scottish Parliament has already passed the motion about another independence referendum. The UK Government have refused to grant the legal order and there is nothing from Sturgeon today about how the Scottish Parliament can get around that

As an extreme option, she could opt for a Unilateral declaration of independence. I've no idea regarding the ins and outs but if Westminster continue to deny her a referendum and pursue or permit a disastrous Brexit then this is something we might see within the next decade or so. She would need to secure international recognition which could prove very difficult regarding Spain and the UK's allies.

Anteayer

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Jeremy Hunt engages in a tediously childish spat with the French Ambassador to the US:

http://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1121023834453364737

It also ignorantly overlooks the Statue of Liberty (a French gift to the US celebrating its independence and path to modern republican values.)

reslfj

briany wrote: »

I assume that the UK will try to get around that by cutting a quickie trade deal with New Zealand. Surely, they would figure, one of the dominions would be chomping at the bit to establish direct economic ties with the motherland.

But already the common attempt by the UK and the EU to split current trad quotas (TRQs) and roll over existing NZ-EU deals has run into problems.

https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/new-zealand-continues-push-protect-post-brexit-trade-quotas

Some NZ->EU export is consumed mostly in the UK, but other goods are consumed in the much larger EU27.

A deal may well be possible, but fast and easy - unlikely IMHO.

When farms are closed across the UK it may not be huge economically, but don't you think it will be in the UK population?

Lars

A Dub in Glasgo

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

As an extreme option, she could opt for a Unilateral declaration of independence. I've no idea regarding the ins and outs but if Westminster continue to deny her a referendum and pursue or permit a disastrous Brexit then this is something we might see within the next decade or so. She would need to secure international recognition which could prove very difficult regarding Spain and the UK's allies.

I would have liked to see an annoucement that the Scottish Government is to test the legality as to whether a Section 30 order is actually required. No point in waiting for the Tories to agree a Section 30 order which will probably be never and then the Scottish Government runs out of time to test the legality of it all.

https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2012/01/31/gavin-anderson-et-al-the-independence-referendum-legality-and-the-contested-constitution-widening-the-debate/

We could be in a Spanish / Catalan situation although the UK does not have a written constitution