Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Shelga

bilston wrote: »

When I see that QT audience behaving like that I worry about the future. Britain is in a mess.

Yes, and Sallah is having some kind of public breakdown and screaming at Caroline Lucas. It's become a horrible, horrible programme.

Brexit Britain becomes less and less appealing every single day.

cunnifferous

Where do they even get the guests from? John Rhys Davis thinks 'Donald Trump is mankinds' last great hope'? Probably going to start talking about chemtrails and lizard people next. What good does it to do for the BBC to someone like this on the show apart from the odd cheap laugh?

Strazdas

bilston wrote: »

When I see that QT audience behaving like that I worry about the future. Britain is in a mess.

Yes, it was horrible to watch. The audience bitterly divided, everyone angry and what seemed like the majority cheering the names of Nigel Farage and Donald Trump.

sandbelter

reslfj wrote: »

The EU27 is a 7 times larger market and a FTA with the EU27 is much more important for both AU and NZ.

The EU27 will almost surely put restrictions on NZ's and AU's other new trade deals.
Trade negotiations and trade deals exist in the grown ups adult world - not in any pussy-nussy fantacy world.

Lars

Unlikely, China+2/Japan/Singapore/Sth Korea far eclipses the UK and EU in importance in trade and EU has traditionally a trade surplus with both AU/NZ. The other thing is logistics. Most AU/NZ to EU has to be hubbed via Asia which effectively doubles the container costs pricing AU and NZ out of the market..these sort of non tariff/quota are often as effective a barrier to trade as legal trade restriction. So there's simply no incentive for the AU and NZ to accede to EU demands (with or without the UK) ....China trumps all.

I suspect that AU/NZ would pan out the same way as Mercosur, there's no incentive to sign unless there's greater agricultural access and good luck getting that past the French and Irish farmers.

Which brings us back to Brexit, AU/NZ have repeatedly said that neither is going to forgo Chinese market access to satisfy UK demand, Currently any excess supply in NZ is being soaked up by China....as for AU YTD rain in Dubai is running currently 50% higher that Australia's principal agricultural basin, that's how bad their drought is.....there's a blue sky element to the Brexitters cheap food arguments that risk falling flat on their face. To me boat loads of Cheap NZ/AU meat is more an assumption than a fact.

A Dub in Glasgo

Don't forget, the audience on QT is handpicked by the BBC. It is not a random selection of the public

A Dub in Glasgo

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Don't forget, the audience on QT is handpicked by the BBC. It is not a random selection of the public

Translation: People apply to be members of the audience and are randomly selected to participate.


If the BBC wanted to "hand pick" them, they would choose reaminers over Brexiteers.

A Dub in Glasgo

Deleted User wrote: »

Translation: People apply to be members of the audience and are randomly selected to participate.


If the BBC wanted to "hand pick" them, they would choose reaminers over Brexiteers.

Nope, the BBC (more accurately the production company contracted by the BBC) approach potential audience members and 'invite' them to join


https://www.scotsman.com/news-2-15012/bbc-question-time-criticised-after-three-time-audience-member-slams-snp-1-4870350

20silkcut

[Deleted User] wrote: »

You obviously weren't there during that time, I lived near a farm that was affected by the outbreak and the whole area was in lockdown. Only residents and essential visitors were allowed within the exclusion zone, everyone else had to take long diversions.

They killed all the cattle on every farm for miles and burned the carcases on site before burying them, I remember seeing the fire from miles away.

If you were in another part of the country, unaffected by the outbreak, then there were only restrictions on entering farms or moving animals.

So yes the UK ministry of agriculture did take it very seriously, and did stop the outbreak spreading any further once discovered. The only problem was that the trade in livestock meant that animals from Scotland could be on a farm in Cornwall within 24 hours, it was because some infected cattle were in transit that made the outbreak so large right from the start.

In this country we cancelled 6 nations rugby matches and the entire national hurling and football league was delayed.
Most Sporting events and gatherings outside of horse racing continued as normal in Britain. Whether it made a difference or not it looked like most people in Britain outside the Agricultural community didn’t care. It wasn’t even making the news bulletins.
That was not the case in Ireland. Nearly every large gathering was restricted.

Leroy42

The latest leak allegations, concerning the 5G licence, seems to me to be very concerning for the EU.

It shows yet another example that the EU are not dealing with a singular government, but with a multitude of factions both within the main government party, the government itself (DUP) and within the wider political sphere (Labour are split as well).

Thus, it is likely that any deal agreed is not worth the paper it is written on. What, for example, will the EU actually do if, as highlighted by the Greens in Germany recent report, the UK look to reduce adherence to regulations? Will the EU simply demand a hard Brexit at that point or will they allow the slow creep?

My money is that the UK are aware that they cannot take on the EU head on, well they realise it now at least, and so the best way is almost a guerrilla campaign. Moving the goalposts slightly, not enough in any one go to make things chance but gradually over time.

Already they have got rid of FoM whilst maintaining access to the EU (if they sign the WA). So Goal 1 achieved. That is what Cameron tried to negotiate and couldn't get yet it appears that the EU have given it to them through the backdoor (or backstop!).

If Johnson or someone of his ilk (and I cannot see anyone in the UK can't could potentially be PM that wouldn't be BRexit) than I can only see a long and acrimonious argument as the UK continues to push the boundries and daring the EU to take a stand. They are well aware of the deep dislike of a hard brexit and will attempt to use to to get through exemptions etc. We have seen this throughout their time within the EU itself, it will only become more when they are outside.

LuckyLloyd

bilston wrote: »

When I see that QT audience behaving like that I worry about the future. Britain is in a mess.

It's become popular to poo poo QT as unrepresentative of the public at large, but I struggle to accept that the tone and tenor of the debate on it each week is not indicative of the bitterness, division and misinformation rife across their societal discourse at present. Their politicians, polling for the parties and likely outcome of the coming European elections all further the perception of a nation in crisis.

Reasonable logical fact based takes gain zero traction on QT week in, week out. That has to mean something.

20silkcut

20silkcut wrote: »

In this country we cancelled 6 nations rugby matches and the entire national hurling and football league was delayed.
Most Sporting events and gatherings outside of horse racing continued as normal in Britain. Whether it made a difference or not it looked like most people in Britain outside the Agricultural community didn’t care. It wasn’t even making the news bulletins.
That was not the case in Ireland. Nearly every large gathering was restricted.

A classic overreaction that included visitors being forced to dump produce at the port, despite the fact that the products were Irish made and exported to the UK.

A bit like many of the storm warnings we experience now.

Hurrache

Deleted User wrote: »

Translation: People apply to be members of the audience and are randomly selected to participate.


If the BBC wanted to "hand pick" them, they would choose reaminers over Brexiteers.

They, the BBC, in general do have more Brexit favouring talking heads, the numbers have born this out. Of course I can't find the bloody graphic that has the break down of the number of each guest type on each show, but I'm sure I'll find it at some point.

Hurrache

Deleted User wrote: »

A classic overreaction that included visitors being forced to dump produce at the port, despite the fact that the products were Irish made and exported to the UK.

A bit like many of the storm warnings we experience now.

You have no idea, and thankfully we have people who know what they're doing working for the dept.

micosoft

Deleted User wrote: »

Just one card, one that could be in play before the elections. Don't forget that Ireland is a small member in the EU, politicians may prefer the option of removing the backstop to the alternative of many more months of wrangling over the Irish problem.

They won't though. And the reason is fairly simple. If Ireland gets sold out then who is next? Poland? Hungary? All of the other EU states will back the backstop to the end because the backstop is actually the EU backstop i.e. the minute one nation is sold out, all are sold out and the entire edifice falls apart. The evidence this is true is that even ostensibly pro UK/anti EU Governments such as Poland and Hungary (remember Junker literally greeting Orban as a Dictator) have not even suggested backing off (apart from one polish minister going off script for his friend in the UK parliament). So no. I don't think that will happen.

Hurrache

The Irish figure was posted yesterday in the Ireexit thread, here's a larger number space. Once the UK leaves, the dominoes will come toppling down. (the don't knows haven't been removed)

https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1121688717624737793

A Dub in Glasgo

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Nope, the BBC (more accurately the production company contracted by the BBC) approach potential audience members and 'invite' them to join


https://www.scotsman.com/news-2-15012/bbc-question-time-criticised-after-three-time-audience-member-slams-snp-1-4870350

They select from the people who have applied to be members of the audience.
The production company obviously want to create more drama in the show.

Hurrache

Deleted User wrote: »

They select from the people who have applied to be members of the audience.
The production company obviously want to create more drama in the show.

So they manipulate the audience so.

gmisk

Hurrache wrote: »

The Irish figure was posted yesterday in the Ireexit thread, here's a larger number space. Once the UK leaves, the dominoes will come toppling down. (the don't knows haven't been removed)

https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1121688717624737793

But nigel farage said Ireland wanted to leave the EU as well....:D

ambro25

I’m back from spending a week in/around Sheffield & north Notts (14-21 Apr.)

I hadn’t visited the place since we’d Brexoded in Feb’18 (a few days in Oxford earlier this year, but that’s it, and not my usual neck of the woods: Sheffield & north Notts are, I’d spent 20 years there on aggregate).

Since Feb’18 then, just about all anchor stores have gone from Worksop & Rotherham, many are gone from Retford, there’s more boarded up units in Meadowhall, and drab people with 6 ft long faces and moaning everywhere we went (some quite aggressive too, apparently over nothing, saw some guys having a right ding-dong outside Aldi on a Sat morning over a ‘parents’ car parking spot).

It all felt very grim, tbh.

I can see the lashing out/protest vote doing still better this year at the EU elections, than it did in 2016 & 2017.

jm08

Deleted User wrote: »

A classic overreaction that included visitors being forced to dump produce at the port, despite the fact that the products were Irish made and exported to the UK.

A bit like many of the storm warnings we experience now.

Just to remind you - the F&M outbreak in England was caused by a pig farmer feeding slops to his animals that came off a plane that came from South America.


F&M was spread to NI (with some outbreaks that were contained), but not soon enough that prevented the disease being exported to France through Irish ports (from animals produced in NI).


Most people think that the Dept. of Agric did a fantastic job keeping our flock F&M free.

Leroy42

ambro25 wrote: »

I can see the lashing out/protest vote doing still better this year at the EU elections, than it did in 2016 & 2017.

I think Farage and the Brexit party will be really well. There is clearly a very strong narrative that the EU has been totally to blame, that the government is totally to blame, TM is the worst person in the history of the world. Every MP is simply out to destroy the UK.

Farage will avoid having to answer anything to do with policy, details, plans, forecasts. He won't be asked what he would achieve, and if he is he will simply claim WTO FTA with added sovereignty and democracy for the real people.

People are constantly being told that there is no cost to Brexit, that wages are up, GDP is up, yet all around them services are being cut, food banks are under pressure, NHS is creaking, police are under resourced. So who to blame? It must be the EU. Because everything was terrible prior to BRexit and got worse, the main reason being that Brexit never happened!

Sam Russell

I think that the general public has no real concept of WTO rules and what they would mean.

If, say, the UK had to cancel all the debit/credit cards and cheques from Brexit day, and all transactions had to be conducted with cash. What would life be like? How would anyone buy their groceries? How would anyone buy a car? Getting away from the requirement to handle cash increases trade and reduces the cost of doing business.

It all sounds grand in theory - WTO rules - but it is the basement level of trade - a level that every nation on earth tries to get away from because it is not good for international trade. Charging tariffs is only good for protection of your own industries, otherwise it is just an additional cost. The trading partner has tariffs to protect their industry. Free trade agreements are structured to abolish strictures to trade that benefit both sides. WTO is the default - bad for all sides. The SM has been a fantastic success for the UK as it has allowed it to develop a (foreign owned) motor assembly business that will evaporate under WTO rules.

Why does no-one point this out.

ancapailldorcha

ambro25 wrote: »

I’m back from spending a week in/around Sheffield & north Notts (14-21 Apr.)

I hadn’t visited the place since we’d Brexoded in Feb’18 (a few days in Oxford earlier this year, but that’s it, and not my usual neck of the woods: Sheffield & north Notts are, I’d spent 20 years there on aggregate).

Since Feb’18 then, just about all anchor stores have gone from Worksop & Rotherham, many are gone from Retford, there’s more boarded up units in Meadowhall, and drab people with 6 ft long faces and moaning everywhere we went (some quite aggressive too, apparently over nothing, saw some guys having a right ding-dong outside Aldi on a Sat morning over a ‘parents’ car parking spot).

It all felt very grim, tbh.

I can see the lashing out/protest vote doing still better this year at the EU elections, than it did in 2016 & 2017.

Funnily enough, there haven't been the wave of exits that I expected from my own very EU-migrant orientated workplace. Perhaps it's because of the UK's preeminence as a research leader.

I don't know if you've seen the Guardian's Anywhere but Westminster series on Youtube. I highly recommend it as I think it does a good job of covering these places and why they voted leave.

That said, the worst thing that could happen with these elections is a mass protest vote. UKIP's performance in 2014 was part of the reason for Cameron's endeavours to placate his party by adding a referendum to his party's 2015 election manifesto when he expected Nick Clegg to veto it at the ensuing coalition negotiations which didn't come to pass.

Enzokk

Leroy42 wrote: »

Already they have got rid of FoM whilst maintaining access to the EU (if they sign the WA). So Goal 1 achieved. That is what Cameron tried to negotiate and couldn't get yet it appears that the EU have given it to them through the backdoor (or backstop!).

Can you expand what you mean by this? If this was true then why are the UK fighting among themselves about the agreement?

MrMusician18

jm08 wrote: »

Just to remind you - the F&M outbreak in England was caused by a pig farmer feeding slops to his animals that came off a plane that came from South America.


F&M was spread to NI (with some outbreaks that were contained), but not soon enough that prevented the disease being exported to France through Irish ports (from animals produced in NI).


Most people think that the Dept. of Agric did a fantastic job keeping our flock F&M free.

They didn't actually. There was an outbreak in carlingford iirc that was caused by illegal animal movements.
The Government had top pull out all the stops to convince the EU that the outbreak was isolated and controlled.

A complete disaster for Irish agriculture was narrowly avoided.

Leroy42

Enzokk wrote: »

Can you expand what you mean by this? If this was true then why are the UK fighting among themselves about the agreement?

They will no longer be covered by FoM rules, thus the reason why any EU citizen had to apply for special status.

They appear to be arguing among themselves (I believe that the agreement they got is actually very favorable for the UK) because it doesn't deliver anything close to the Brexit that was promised and the Brexiteers can see that it clarifies that they are actually in a far worse position under it, and by extension that being in the EU isn't as terrible as they had made it out to be.

IMO opinion, they are calling for a hard Brexit as a desperation move, as they will be able to paint whatever happens as the least worst option and regardless of how things go they will claim that only for Brexit things would have been far worse.

In effect, no agreement that could ever realistically be got from the EU would have been sufficient. Backstop is a convenient excuse, with the added benefit that they can look like they are standing up for the principle of the UK.

It is why HoC is so utterly divided as no one wants to accept any thing less than 100% of what they wanted and need to be able to blame others if it doesn't all work out. Anyone with any sense of reality can see that anything other than remain will lead to severe costs in the short term and quite possibly for far longer.

Enzokk

Leroy42 wrote: »

They will no longer be covered by FoM rules, thus the reason why any EU citizen had to apply for special status.

They appear to be arguing among themselves (I believe that the agreement they got is actually very favorable for the UK) because it doesn't deliver anything close to the Brexit that was promised and the Brexiteers can see that it clarifies that they are actually in a far worse position under it, and by extension that being in the EU isn't as terrible as they had made it out to be.

IMO opinion, they are calling for a hard Brexit as a desperation move, as they will be able to paint whatever happens as the least worst option and regardless of how things go they will claim that only for Brexit things would have been far worse.

In effect, no agreement that could ever realistically be got from the EU would have been sufficient. Backstop is a convenient excuse, with the added benefit that they can look like they are standing up for the principle of the UK.

It is why HoC is so utterly divided as no one wants to accept any thing less than 100% of what they wanted and need to be able to blame others if it doesn't all work out. Anyone with any sense of reality can see that anything other than remain will lead to severe costs in the short term and quite possibly for far longer.

If the Withdrawal Agreement is agreed then the UK will have a transition period up to end of 2020 and it could be extended once. During this time they will be part of the EEA, single market and customs union and all the rules and regulations that come with that, including EU law. The UK will however not have any say in the drafting of those rules and regulations they will be subject to.

As for what happens after 2020, it could be anything so we cannot say now that they have gotten rid of FoM and will still have access to the EU as those negotiations still have to take place. There could be a FTA negotiated in that time that means the UK has full access to the single market and they can end FoM only, but the chance of that happening is about as much as me losing the excess weight I have in a week. It is not going to happen in a billion years.

The problem is that what was sold and is continuing to be sold is an impossible deal. The rest of it is just white noise until we get the inevitable conclusion of either the UK leaves in BRINO or there is no-deal and chaos. They will return to the EU quickly in that case, in my opinion.

I don't agree that they have gotten rid of any EU rules on Free Movement with the deal. I don't think the EU negotiators are that stupid and I don't think all of the remaining 27 leaders and their teams somehow missed it either.

The need to register for EU citizens is, I believe, in case of no-deal when there is no more free movement of goods or labour.

jm08

MrMusician18 wrote: »

They didn't actually. There was an outbreak in carlingford iirc that was caused by illegal animal movements.
The Government had top pull out all the stops to convince the EU that the outbreak was isolated and controlled.

A complete disaster for Irish agriculture was narrowly avoided.

I should have said mostly contained except for Carlingford / Coley Peninsula.

bob mcbob

Well the whole Brexit mask is beginning to slip

https://twitter.com/ThatTimWalker/status/1121545965259886593

One Tory MP to me: ‘We have no provision for an ageing population and Brexit is a device to help people accept that they’ll be left to die.'

Some of the comments on this twitter feed are truly disturbing - one said

He would be happy to see people starve on the street before he would admit Brexit was a bad idea

reslfj

Enzokk wrote: »

...
There could be a FTA negotiated in that time that means the UK has full access to the single market and they can end FoM only, but the chance of that ...

It is not going to happen in a billion years.

.... or there is no-deal and chaos. They will return to the EU quickly in that case, in my opinion.

" a billion years" sounds about right.

When UK farm/fish export to the EU27 is much reduced or de facto stopped by 30-40-50% duty, when export of cars are hit by a 10% tariff and car assembly factories reduce to two or three workdays/week or closes (eg Honda), when local UK parts suppliers reduces too or loses contracts to EU27 companies (car parts can be imported tariff free /UKGOV no deal tariffs), when financial institutions realise the the EU's grace period for financial services may soon run out, when UK SMEs realise their export volume to EU27 isn't that large and cannot pay for all the new paperwork and other new costs, etc etc....

It will not be long, before any government will be forced to act and hit the road to Canossa (sorry to Brussels).
But it might take 6 or 12 months of hardship - I guess.

Enzokk wrote: »

I don't agree that they have gotten rid of any EU rules on Free Movement with the deal. I don't think the EU negotiators are that stupid and I don't think all of the remaining 27 leaders and their teams somehow missed it either.

The need to register for EU citizens is, I believe, in case of no-deal when there is no more free movement of goods or labour.

The FoM for goods only being part of the WA Irish backstop is a major concession from the EU27 to the UK Brexit demands. It is only accepted by the EU because:

1. The GFA otherwise prevents the UK from almost any Brexit
2. FoM UK-Irish style is working
3. Very few EU26 citizens use FoM to move and work in NI. The RoI is economically a much better option for most EU26 citizens coming to the island of Ireland.

Lars