Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

AlmightyCushion

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1122835456339607561


An expert rightfully dismissing nonsense from IDS.

Experts?!?!? Sure, what do they know.

reslfj

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

Experts?!?!? Sure, what do they know.

A shorter and more focused view.

https://twitter.com/nedsimons/status/1122829905811714049

eire4

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The idea that we should veto an independent Scotland joining the EU is just absurd. What would we gain? The EU have stood shoulder to shoulder with Ireland. Ireland would expend significant political capital and sour relations with its EU counterparts for no gain whatsoever.

It's up there with this silly notion of Angela Merkel throwing the Irish under a bus to sell more Volkswagen Beetles to the British.

Agree there is absolutely no chance that the Irish government will veto a fully independent Scotland joining the EU if as seems likely they pull away from the UK if brexit ever does actually become a reality.

Sam Russell

eire4 wrote: »

Agree there is absolutely no chance that the Irish government will veto a fully independent Scotland joining the EU if as seems likely they pull away from the UK if brexit ever does actually become a reality.

Ireland would have a lot in common with an independent Scotland. Similar population and economy. Particularly if there was a united Ireland, then we would have even more in common and we would be strong allies on nearly every issue.

On the question of FDI, why would we care what goes to Scotland as we get enough here, and if Scotland had significant FDI, then that is another issue we would agree on.

lawred2

Sam Russell wrote: »

Ireland would have a lot in common with an independent Scotland. Similar population and economy. Particularly if there was a united Ireland, then we would have even more in common and we would be strong allies on nearly every issue.

On the question of FDI, why would we care what goes to Scotland as we get enough here, and if Scotland had significant FDI, then that is another issue we would agree on.

plus a strong Scotland would be a decent trading partner

RobertKK

eire4 wrote: »

Agree there is absolutely no chance that the Irish government will veto a fully independent Scotland joining the EU if as seems likely they pull away from the UK if brexit ever does actually become a reality.

I watched Nicola Sturgeon when she was in the Seanad on what appeared to be akin to a state visit - she gave a speech and was a guest there.
The senators were all very warm towards her both in praise and the type of questions asked. It became clear as one watched that the Seanad at least would appear to support Scottish independence and sort of brought it back to our own independence near 100 years ago.
It looked to me as if Ireland would be there to fully support an independent Scotland.

eire4

lawred2 wrote: »

plus a strong Scotland would be a decent trading partner

I would think so on trade yes.
It all comes down to brexit really. If it actually becomes a reality I don't seen any other outcome other then Scottish independence and then membership of the EU coming along in the wake of that.

Hurrache

Tell me how wrote: »

The topic of BBC bias has been discussed already.

Watching their news show last night at ten, I was a bit dumbfounded at the tone of Katya Adler. She was in Spain for the results of their election yesterday in which the ruling Socialists Party won and are likely to form a coalition.

She started her report stating how there had been big gains for the right wing but it turned out that what had happened was that the former ruling conservative party had suffered big losses which meant that gains by the ultra conservative Vox had been at their cost.

It seemed to me that she seemed somewhat frustrated that the election hadn't result in a comprehensive shift towards conservatism.

I rewound and watched her report again and felt that maybe i had been judging her harshly the first time but also that actually, maybe not.

It hasn't gone unnoticed in Europe or Spain either.
https://twitter.com/AgataGostynska/status/1122895415664349184?s=19

tipp_tipp_tipp

Can't see the Scots voting for independence if the UK is outside the customs union and single market. According to wikipedia 63% of their exports is to the rest of the UK (if this figure is false let me know). Can't see them risking disrupting that in any way. Ironically the same Tories who dismiss the Irish border issue will no doubt big up the potential for customs checks between England and Scotland in the lead up to an independence vote.

BonnieSituation

tipp_tipp_tipp wrote: »

Can't see the Scots voting for independence if the UK is outside the customs union and single market. According to wikipedia 63% of their exports is to the rest of the UK (if this figure is false let me know). Can't see them risking disrupting that in any way. Ironically the same Tories who dismiss the Irish border issue will no doubt big up the potential for customs checks between England and Scotland in the lead up to an independence vote.

I do love when people talk about "exports" between 2 parts of the same State.

Capt'n Midnight

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Absolute gold from Sammy Wilson this morning

What the hell is he talking about!?

The UK as a whole imports electricity. Most of the nuclear plants are scheduled to close. Only one of six replacement plants is actually going ahead and it's late and insanely over budget. And the whole VAT on imports thing too. So security of supply is an issue. There needs to be a plan to keep the lights on because you can't build power stations overnight.

Over here.
There is a single energy market on the island. But NI's big fossil fuel plants lost out on recent auctions and are scheduled to close , being kept on life support by subsidies. Or a magic floating power plant will swan up the Lagan and it will be sunshine, lollipops and rainbows, except the DUP don't do rainbows or the other stuff.

So NI is reliant on the single market to provide security of supply.

But it's just part of the Blame Game. Next time you see Sammy ask him about running those two power plants on wood pellets under the Renewable Heat Incentive scheme.


Kilroot power station near Carrickfergus, which had been facing closure, has been given a new one-year deal to provide energy to the grid.

Ballylumford power station: Unite says 80 jobs 'to go'

Capt'n Midnight

tipp_tipp_tipp wrote: »

Can't see the Scots voting for independence if the UK is outside the customs union and single market. According to wikipedia 63% of their exports is to the rest of the UK (if this figure is false let me know). Can't see them risking disrupting that in any way. Ironically the same Tories who dismiss the Irish border issue will no doubt big up the potential for customs checks between England and Scotland in the lead up to an independence vote.

At independence 94% of our exports went to the UK.

Bulk trade will always be local. The UK will still buy Whisky and Salmon and oil and electricity. Scotland will still buy Buckie and cars made in England by foreign owned companies.

Scotland already has a separate legal system. Pegging the currency to Sterling is essential but easy to do. Like Nicola said earlier they can look at the mess of Brexit to see now not to leave.

CelticRambler

Deleted User wrote: »

One of the main gripes for Brexiteers is the fact that "they look our jobs", when will they realise that "they" were invited over and given the jobs (at lower rates and conditions) that would have been taken by the local population.
Globalisation is the real issue here, it has allowed multinationals to choose " á la carte" where to put factories, where to select workers & where to pay taxes.

Yep. And 'twas ever thus. "Globalisation" is a handy slogan to use when justifying any refusal to face up to the evolution of commerce, industry and society; but "globalisation" has been around for several hundred years. Over the weekend, I was in Lyon - the centre of the universe in Roman and early mediaeval times, at least as far as the Lyonais were concerned, being situated on a major trade route between Rome and Britannia, and a great place for the Italians to do business with the Germans. Then some bloke discovered America and suddenly there was more money to be made in the Atlantic ports.

Fast forward a few centuries and the industrial revolution (a British invention) was greeted with dismay and a refusal to face reality by all kinds of workers who didn't want to see their miserable 18-hours-a-day jobs taken by these fancy machine things. Funnily enough, though, few of them ended up out of work, because they left their rural hovels and got jobs in the city where there were loads of those fancy machine things.

Populations have been shifting since time immemorial, and humanity is all the better for it. And for the most part, business has been hell-bent on exploiting workers and avoiding taxes since the first Mesopotamian decided to sell his granny to build a pyramid. And above all, throughout history, the most successful, commerically viable strategy in avoiding conflict and maintaining a peaceful society has been to forge mutually beneficial trading alliances with one's neighbours.

Unfortunately, the evidence suggests that a large portion of the English population think that England is exempt from tradition, historical precedent and cause-and-effect. I doubt that the Scots are affected with the same delusion, and I'm sure they would make a great success of EU membership as an independent nation. England, on the other hand, appears to be rapidly heading towards an inflection point in its history, and it'll take more than a copy of the IDA handbook to turn it around.

ancapailldorcha

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

At independence 94% of our exports went to the UK.

Bulk trade will always be local. The UK will still buy Whisky and Salmon and oil and electricity. Scotland will still buy Buckie and cars made in England by foreign owned companies.

Scotland already has a separate legal system. Pegging the currency to Sterling is essential but easy to do. Like Nicola said earlier they can look at the mess of Brexit to see now not to leave.

The issue that Unionists face here is that Sturgeon is a highly capable operator who is well spoken, transparent and consistent and that's something the Westminster Etonians are going to really struggle with now that they've pushed Brexit on the Scots on such dubious and nebulous grounds.

Here's an interview she did with Channel 4 news who got quite aggressive on the idea of her committing to the Euro but not actually adopting it as if she were some sort of aspiring dictator in waiting:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNFKII1C8gI

I'd like the UK to survive but if it doesn't I sincerely envy the Scots the SNP and Ms. Sturgeon. The SNP also has other talents like Mhari Black and Alyn Smith. Scotland's politics seems to be a lot less polarised than that of Britain as a whole and much more based in reasoned debate and less in abstract ideologies. The fear tactics worked before primarily because of the EU and associated economic arguments. Those tactics are off the table and there is no substitute for them at present.

Forcing Brexit upon Northern Ireland and Scotland (Wales voted for Brexit) just goes one step further in dispelling the fiction that the UK is a union of nations when in actual fact it is just England with three satellite states. The British establishment either recognises this and acts to rectify the situation or it doesn't and the UK fragments.

BonnieSituation

That was a horrible interview handled expertly as always.

She's a class act.

briany

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Forcing Brexit upon Northern Ireland and Scotland (Wales voted for Brexit) just goes one step further in dispelling the fiction that the UK is a union of nations when in actual fact it is just England with three satellite states. The British establishment either recognises this and acts to rectify the situation or it doesn't and the UK fragments.

There is an element of the English character that is bothered by not being at the head of any union of which they are part.

English Brexiteers assumedly think the UK is democratic, but is the UK any more democratic than the EU?

- Scotland, NI and Wales get laws handed down to them from London. Sometimes even laws that they voted against.

- The upper house of the UK legislature is full of unelected old men

- Their legislature is subservient to an unelected old woman.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1123118911262687235

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1123111129830576128

More meaningless noise out of the UK's two main parties.

WhiteMan32

"The NEC agreed the (European elections) manifesto which will be fully in line with Labour’s existing policy; to support Labour’s alternative plan and, if we can’t get the necessary changes to the government’s deal, or a general election, to back the option of a public vote” a Labour source said.

Enzokk

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'd like the UK to survive but if it doesn't I sincerely envy the Scots the SNP and Ms. Sturgeon. The SNP also has other talents like Mhari Black and Alyn Smith. Scotland's politics seems to be a lot less polarised than that of Britain as a whole and much more based in reasoned debate and less in abstract ideologies. The fear tactics worked before primarily because of the EU and associated economic arguments. Those tactics are off the table and there is no substitute for them at present.

I do wonder whether it is to do with the fact that they have system that means that one party doesn't dominate if they only get 40% of the vote but the representation is evened out more in the Scottish Parliament. This forces parties to work together more rather than the confrontational politics you see in the UK parliament and the media.

Capt'n Midnight

In news completely not related to Brexit.

Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) will build its next-generation Land Rover Defender 4x4 in Slovakia rather than the UK.

In January 2016, some 67 years of the 4x4 being made at Solihull came to an end.
...

The new Defender will be built at the company's £1bn plant in Nitra in Slovakia, which opened in October 2018.

The plant wasn't build overnight, but since most of the UK car industry is foreign owned this sort of thing is to be expected. Every line closed down shrinks the market for UK parts companies.

The tipping point is when cars made in the UK no longer have enough UK content to be classed as UK cars for international trade deals At present this is a complete non-issue as it's EU content for EU deals.

lawred2

BonnieSituation wrote: »

That was a horrible interview handled expertly as always.

She's a class act.

She is. And I would be an admirer of hers but the SNP can't go in to the next referendum with that same position on the pound that they had in 2014. It's not convincing. And it's easily attacked.

Just be brutally honest... We want to join the EU and we will commit to join the euro when it's right for Scotland. Until then it's a pound pegged to the pound sterling.

I don't think too many will be convinced by the 'our pound' claims. Especially when monetary policy is dictated in London.

Capt'n Midnight

In news completely not related to Brexit.

Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) will build its next-generation Land Rover Defender 4x4 in Slovakia rather than the UK.

In January 2016, some 67 years of the 4x4 being made at Solihull came to an end.
...

The new Defender will be built at the company's £1bn plant in Nitra in Slovakia, which opened in October 2018.

The plant wasn't build overnight, but since most of the UK car industry is foreign owned this sort of thing is to be expected. Every line closed down shrinks the market for UK parts companies.

The tipping point is when cars made in the UK no longer have enough UK content to be classed as UK cars for international trade deals At present this is a complete non-issue as it's EU content for EU deals.

BonnieSituation

lawred2 wrote: »

She is. And I would be an admirer of hers but the SNP can't go in to the next referendum with that same position on the pound that they had in 2014. It's not convincing. And it's easily attacked.

Just be brutally honest... We want to join the EU and we will commit to join the euro when it's right for Scotland. Until then it's a pound pegged to the pound sterling.

I don't think too many will be convinced by the 'our pound' claims. Especially when monetary policy is dictated in London.

The line of questioning is what makes this worse. It's aggressive and it doesn't matter what the SNP say. That's the irritating part. Thankfully they have started to roll out that Ireland did it. They avoided that in 2014 to their detriment.

Bit cynical

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I do love when people talk about "exports" between 2 parts of the same State.

I'm afraid the term export can also be applied to regional economies, not just states.

Capt'n Midnight

So Labour have OK'd a referendum, but only on a Tory deal.

No need to consult the people on a hypothetical Labour deal, because democracy :rolleyes:

Headshot

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

So Labour have OK'd a referendum, but only on a Tory deal.

No need to consult the people on a hypothetical Labour deal, because democracy :rolleyes:

Ya Tom Watson storming out.

It's disgraceful from Labour where 75% of their base wants a 2nd referendum

Corbyn is absolute poison to Labour and the sooner he's gone the better for politics as a whole

He's a cancer tbh

murphaph

On holiday in Cyprus (my first time here) and the results of UK divide and conquer still scar this place. Even though Northern Cyprus is legally part of the EU from the EU's perspective you still have rigorous customs and phytosanitary controls on goods moving from the north into the south because this is required to protect the single market. If there's a hard Brexit things could get even more (much more) complicated here because of the sovereign base areas, especially Dhekalia which has Cypriot villages enclaved inside it.

Ireland would be no different after a grace period.

It's strange driving along a road which is UK territory and having the TRNC to your immediate left and the government controlled part of Cyprus to your immediate right. It is a physical manifestation of the UK's interference in this country that is largely responsible for the current state of affairs.

Strazdas

Tom Newton Dunn saying on the Sky papers review that he thinks the Tories will replace May within months with a hard Brexiteer like Boris Johnson or Dominic Raab, that they will then start demanding a renegotiation of the WA and with a high chance of No Deal in October.

sandbelter

Strazdas wrote: »

Tom Newton Dunn saying on the Sky papers review that he thinks the Tories will replace May within months with a hard Brexiteer like Boris Johnson or Dominic Raab, that they will then start demanding a renegotiation of the WA and with a high chance of No Deal in October.

This was always my gut feeling how it would end....some mad re-incarnation of the "charge of the light brigade" over the edge......whose 165th anniversary is five days before Brexit day....All I can say is this "C'est magnifique, mais ce n'est pas comme vous dirigez un pays"...with apologies for French grammar.

If someone like Boris does that, the EU should immediately retract the whole airlines still being able to fly thing. And NI should be cut off from the electricity grid.

Crashing out by mistake is one thing. Crashing out because the EU won't submit to their whims is quite another.