Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Zubeneschamali

Strazdas wrote: »

Tom Newton Dunn saying on the Sky papers review that he thinks the Tories will replace May within months with a hard Brexiteer like Boris Johnson or Dominic Raab, that they will then start demanding a renegotiation of the WA and with a high chance of No Deal in October.

Boris or Raab will not magically have more votes than May in Westminster so No Deal would fail again and they'd have to ask for another extension. So humiliating.

Enzokk

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Boris or Raab will not magically have more votes than May in Westminster so No Deal would fail again and they'd have to ask for another extension. So humiliating.

Yes, but no-deal is always the default. Even if Westminster votes by an overwhelming majority to take no-deal off the table it means nothing if they don't either vote for May's deal or revoke article 50.

Zubeneschamali

Enzokk wrote: »

Yes, but no-deal is always the default. Even if Westminster votes by an overwhelming majority to take no-deal off the table it means nothing if they don't either vote for May's deal or revoke article 50.

That's what everyone was saying before the last deadline, yet here we are.

The same exact forces will be in play in October. I don't see how putting Raab or Boris in May's place changes anything. Most MPs will vote against No Deal, so it won't happen.

I expect a longer extension next time, 1 or maybe 2 years.

Enzokk

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

That's what everyone was saying before the last deadline, yet here we are.

The same exact forces will be in play in October. I don't see how putting Raab or Boris in May's place changes anything. Most MPs will vote against No Deal, so it won't happen.

I expect a longer extension next time, 1 or maybe 2 years.

Yes, if the same actors are still at play nothing will have changed and there will be a longer extension once again. But if Johnson or Raab takes over then we are not dealing with the same characters and the scenario changes once again. I don't think a sane politician would contemplate a no-deal Brexit, but that was before the most powerful country in the world elected a joke as their leader. I am done thinking humans are sensible and will not let the worst happen, I am open to the possibility that no-deal is back on the table if there is a change of leader for the Tories.

This all assumes May leaves the post. She has so far shown that she is not for moving and they will have to drag her out of Downing street kicking and screaming.

AbusesToilets

lawred2 wrote: »

She is. And I would be an admirer of hers but the SNP can't go in to the next referendum with that same position on the pound that they had in 2014. It's not convincing. And it's easily attacked.

Just be brutally honest... We want to join the EU and we will commit to join the euro when it's right for Scotland. Until then it's a pound pegged to the pound sterling.

I don't think too many will be convinced by the 'our pound' claims. Especially when monetary policy is dictated in London.

What would the requirements be for an independent Scotland to adopt the Euro? How easily accomplished would that be if they were pegged to the Sterling beforehand?

Zubeneschamali

Enzokk wrote: »

Yes, if the same actors are still at play nothing will have changed and there will be a longer extension once again. But if Johnson or Raab takes over then we are not dealing with the same characters and the scenario changes once again.

But my point is that swapping Boris for May does not get even one extra vote for No Deal. It doesn't affect the maths in Parliament at all.

Dytalus

AbusesToilets wrote: »

What would the requirements be for an independent Scotland to adopt the Euro? How easily accomplished would that be if they were pegged to the Sterling beforehand?

To join the Euro, a state must meet the following criteria:

1. Price Stability - The rate of inflation cannot be more than 1.5 percentage points above the average of the top 3 performing member states.
2. Public Finances - Government deficits cannot be more than 3% of GDP, and government debt cannot be more than 60% of GDP.
3. Scotland would have to be part of the exchange rate mechaism (ERM II) for two years without large deviations from the ERM II central rate.
4. Finally, long term interest rates cannot exceed more than 2 percentage points above the average of the 3 best-performing member states (with respect to price stability).

It would be difficult for Scotland to join the Euro anytime soon after independence. While I don't doubt some effort would be made from their friends and allies to help their economy, it is going to take a sizable hit from leaving the UK. I'd expect budget deficits and government debt to grow substantially while they get their now non-UK economy in order. That's going to make it hard to qualify for the Euro in anything less than a decade.

Enzokk

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

But my point is that swapping Boris for May does not get even one extra vote for No Deal. It doesn't affect the maths in Parliament at all.

I know, but you don't have to vote for no-deal for it to happen. Johnson could play the ultimate game of chicken with the EU by not doing anything and threatening no-deal by inaction. This would be done to try and get the backstop removed, but what if the EU doesn't blink, will Johnson give up his leadership already by caving so early and showing he is weak and ineffective?

Who knows what will happen, but the same scenario we have gone through twice already stays the same, no-deal is the default unless a deal is agreed, there is another extension or article 50 is revoked. Nothing other than these 3 scenarios is open to the UK.

Just as an aside, if parliament votes to take no-deal off the table and compels the government to do that, what happens if the PM leaves it until the last minute to resign and reject parliament? If there is no leader who can revoke article 50 or who can request an extension? Would that not mean we could still have no-deal even if parliament votes to take it off the table?

farmchoice

Enzokk wrote: »

I know, but you don't have to vote for no-deal for it to happen. Johnson could play the ultimate game of chicken with the EU by not doing anything and threatening no-deal by inaction. This would be done to try and get the backstop removed, but what if the EU doesn't blink, will Johnson give up his leadership already by caving so early and showing he is weak and ineffective?

Who knows what will happen, but the same scenario we have gone through twice already stays the same, no-deal is the default unless a deal is agreed, there is another extension or article 50 is revoked. Nothing other than these 3 scenarios is open to the UK.

Just as an aside, if parliament votes to take no-deal off the table and compels the government to do that, what happens if the PM leaves it until the last minute to resign and reject parliament? If there is no leader who can revoke article 50 or who can request an extension? Would that not mean we could still have no-deal even if parliament votes to take it off the table?

Boris has the problem that he is despised by a fairly large percentage of the Tory parliamentary party whilst being loved by the party membership, and seeing how it is now the done thing to vote against your own PM and party without any consequences he will be pretty hamstrung by his own party if he gets the top job.

Zubeneschamali

Enzokk wrote: »

Johnson could play the ultimate game of chicken with the EU by not doing anything and threatening no-deal by inaction.

The negotiations which have to happen are in Parliament, not with the EU, and Boris would be in no stronger position than May in those negotiations.

The vote on No Deal was on the 13th of March, and it lost 321-278 with 35 abstentions. It cannot pass, not now, not in October.

You say it is not enough to vote against No Deal, fair enough, but Parliament did more than that last time, they voted for an extension. They can do that again.

Or they could do something more radical next time, if their patience wears out. Vote for a new referendum (with Remain is ahead in the polls), or just revoke A50. I think having a Brexiteer PM who is even more out of step with Parliament than May was will increase the likelihood that Parliament simply takes over from the PM altogether.

Charles Babbage

murphaph wrote: »

On holiday in Cyprus (my first time here) and the results of UK divide and conquer still scar this place. Even though Northern Cyprus is legally part of the EU from the EU's perspective you still have rigorous customs and phytosanitary controls on goods moving from the north into the south because this is required to protect the single market. If there's a hard Brexit things could get even more (much more) complicated here because of the sovereign base areas, especially Dhekalia which has Cypriot villages enclaved inside it.

Ireland would be no different after a grace period.

The difference is that there are only something like 4 routes for trucks between Northern Cyprus and the rest of the island. All other routes are physically closed and patrolled by the UN.

It's strange driving along a road which is UK territory and having the TRNC to your immediate left and the government controlled part of Cyprus to your immediate right. It is a physical manifestation of the UK's interference in this country that is largely responsible for the current state of affairs.

Cyprus is a bit complicated, its problems are not only or even mainly down to the British, whereas in Ireland the partition and problems are entirely a consequence of deliberate British policy.

bob mcbob

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Boris or Raab will not magically have more votes than May in Westminster so No Deal would fail again and they'd have to ask for another extension. So humiliating.

I read an interesting article which said there could be 3 PM's this year - May, then after they eventually manage to get her out Boris. But if he is PM then a number (12 was quoted) of Tory MPs defect to Change depriving him of a majority. He has to call a general election and Corbyn is voted in with support of amongst others the SNP. You can guess what their condition will be.

reslfj

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

... but Parliament did more than that last time, they voted for an extension. They can do that again.

Or they could do something more radical next time,

Don't rely on the EU27 accepting another extension.
If the UK cannot come up with a credible plan for Brexit including an approved (unchanged) WA, the EU27 may well let A50 run out by November 1st and let the UK jump the cliff (or revoke).

There are limits to what's in the EU27's interest in relation to the UK.

Lars

PS! Note EU27 firms and states will have had 7 more months to prepare - and believe me most are working full speed now.
Many UK firms are in 'No Deal Brexit' will likely happen mode, too.

reslfj

bob mcbob wrote: »

I read an interesting article
....
.... with support of amongst others the SNP. You can guess what their condition will be.

No PM Corbyn ?



PS! Which article ?

bob mcbob

BonnieSituation wrote: »

The line of questioning is what makes this worse. It's aggressive and it doesn't matter what the SNP say. That's the irritating part. Thankfully they have started to roll out that Ireland did it. They avoided that in 2014 to their detriment.

This is an article about how (pretty much) all the media reacted to the independence referendum in 2014. Now that it is on the cards again, you can expect more of the same.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/16/media-shafted-people-scotland-journalists

bob mcbob

reslfj wrote: »

No PM Corbyn ?

Indy ref 2

Sam Russell

reslfj wrote: »

Don't rely on the EU27 accepting another extension.
If the UK cannot come up with a credible plan for Brexit including an approved (unchanged) WA, the EU27 may well let A50 run out by November 1st and let the UK jump the cliff (or revoke).

There are limits to what's in the EU27's interest in relation to the UK.

Lars

PS! Note EU27 firms and states will have had 7 more months to prepare - and believe me most are working full speed now.
Many UK firms are in 'No Deal Brexit' will likely happen mode, too.

But the UK Gov has cancelled the Yellowhammer project - the No Deal plans.

So if UK business is planning, it must be to evacuate to the EU27.

Car industry cannot survive no deal because of JIT and tariffs. Airbus has already indicated it will fly. The locals will have to get to like mackerel and forget cod. As for food, well, November is not much better than April for local food. Plenty of potatoes and carrots, but not so many aubergines or lettuce.

As for the City of London, well, the futures will not be bright, and Paris, Frankfurt, and Dublin will beckon.

No deal is the worst possible deal, but any deal is worse than revoke. But even revoke will leave the UK having to work very hard to recover all the lost political capital it has wasted over the last 3 years - maybe at a least a decade and a change of Governing party to make any progress.

lawred2

bob mcbob wrote: »

This is an article about how (pretty much) all the media reacted to the independence referendum in 2014. Now that it is on the cards again, you can expect more of the same.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/16/media-shafted-people-scotland-journalists

utterly desperate stuff

England's behaviour towards those nations around it is the personification of the schoolyard bully..

bob mcbob

reslfj wrote: »

No PM Corbyn ?



PS! Which article ?

behind a paywall but

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/this-will-be-the-year-of-three-prime-ministers-8vxm7cptw

Zubeneschamali

reslfj wrote: »

Don't rely on the EU27 accepting another extension.

The EU will not kick a member state out if they ask to stay. The big obstacle was the elections, and the UK is in for those. The next obstacle is the budget, it will be a pain to have the UK around during budget planning.


Perhaps the UK will be told they can have an extension as long as they sit quietly in the corner and don't interrupt the adults talking.

ancapailldorcha

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The EU will not kick a member state out if they ask to stay. The big obstacle was the elections, and the UK is in for those. The next obstacle is the budget, it will be a pain to have the UK around during budget planning.

The UK won't be kicked out if there's reasonable doubt that the population still want Brexit which there seems to be. It would be an incredibly dangerous thing for the EU to do. I'm still baffled that Macron was so strict about only extending to Hallowe'en. He's spent a fair bit of political capital and has his own agenda. I don't know what he's gained, if anything from this.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Perhaps the UK will be told they can have an extension as long as they sit quietly in the corner and don't interrupt the adults talking.

Well, there'd be no legal way for this to happen. They'd have to take it on good faith from Theresa May which in and of itself would be fine but then there's the matter of her being succeeded by Boris Johnson or someone similar who would be more interested in posturing for the right wing of his party who would relish acting the maggot at the setting of the next EU budget to say nothing of Farage's new mysteriously funded Brexit party.

LeinsterDub

Enzokk wrote: »

I know, but you don't have to vote for no-deal for it to happen. Johnson could play the ultimate game of chicken with the EU by not doing anything and threatening no-deal by inaction.

This is the equivalent of a truck and a pedestrian playing chicken. The UK was never ready for a no-deal , has cancelled no deal prep. The EU on the other hand is continuing preparations

briany

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Perhaps the UK will be told they can have an extension as long as they sit quietly in the corner and don't interrupt the adults talking.

If the EU says that, Farage will become twice as loud and insufferable, and so will his cronies in the EUP. There could be more of his cronies there after the next EU elections, too, making the prospect even less appealing.

The UK government might officially agree to be as quiet as possible, but every Brexit-supporting politician will eventually try to take it into their own hands to wrest the UK out of the EU by inflaming the extension sceptics like Macron and Verhofstadt.

And this is not to mention that May's dangling by a thread, albeit a surprisingly strong one. If she goes and Johnson decides, finally, to step up, that could be the process finished with.

Sam Russell

Come October, Verhofstadt will be no longer in position. Macron might also have faced down the Gillet Jaune crowds.

AbusesToilets

Dytalus wrote: »

To join the Euro, a state must meet the following criteria:

1. Price Stability - The rate of inflation cannot be more than 1.5 percentage points above the average of the top 3 performing member states.
2. Public Finances - Government deficits cannot be more than 3% of GDP, and government debt cannot be more than 60% of GDP.
3. Scotland would have to be part of the exchange rate mechaism (ERM II) for two years without large deviations from the ERM II central rate.
4. Finally, long term interest rates cannot exceed more than 2 percentage points above the average of the 3 best-performing member states (with respect to price stability).

It would be difficult for Scotland to join the Euro anytime soon after independence. While I don't doubt some effort would be made from their friends and allies to help their economy, it is going to take a sizable hit from leaving the UK. I'd expect budget deficits and government debt to grow substantially while they get their now non-UK economy in order. That's going to make it hard to qualify for the Euro in anything less than a decade.

Can a non member state adopt the Euro without being a Eurozone member? Afaik any country is free to use the IS Dollar as its currency, but they would have no control over it, for example.

LeinsterDub

AbusesToilets wrote: »

Can a non member state adopt the Euro without being a Eurozone member? Afaik any country is free to use the IS Dollar as its currency, but they would have no control over it, for example.

Any country can do what they want the Scots could adopt the Aussie Dollar if they want there is no way to stop them.

reslfj

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The EU will not kick a member state out...

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The UK won't be kicked out,,,.

I'm just saying - don't be so sure.

The UK will be allowed to jump the cliff all by itself, if the coming 6 months is not used effectively and no realistic plan is presented before October 31.
Many more than just France and Macron that are sick and tired of the UK's Brexit Unicorn gossiping and no plan.

LeinsterDub wrote: »

The EU on the other hand is continuing preparations

Even more important, EU27, UK and almost all international companies are working hard to prepare for an expected No Deal Brexit.

Lars

ancapailldorcha

AbusesToilets wrote: »

Can a non member state adopt the Euro without being a Eurozone member? Afaik any country is free to use the IS Dollar as its currency, but they would have no control over it, for example.

Andorra, the Vatican, Monaco, San Marino and Montonegro are in the Euro but not the EU. The term "Eurozone" refers to EU members with the Euro:

The eurozone, officially called the euro area,[7] is a monetary union of 19 of the 28 European Union (EU) member states which have adopted the euro (€) as their common currency and sole legal tender.

reslfj

Sam Russell wrote: »

Come October, Verhofstadt will be no longer in position.

Guy Verhofstadt is first on the Open Vld list for the 2019 EP election.
This list elected 3 MEPs in 2014 and Guy Verhofstadt will surely be reelected.

The ALDE group will likely be larger after the election and he will continue to have a leading role among ALDE MEPs and in the EP.

Lars

PS! Macron is French president until the summer of 2022 no matter what.

ancapailldorcha

reslfj wrote: »

I'm just saying - don't be so sure.

The UK will be allowed to jump the cliff all by itself, if the coming 6 months is not used effectively and no realistic plan is presented before October 31.
Many more than just France and Macron that are sick and tired of the UK's Brexit Unicorn gossiping and no plan.

The EU can only do so much to stop Brexit or at least a no deal Brexit. There's a reason they have said that it can be stopped on multiple occasions. The House of Commons doesn't want a crash out either. But I think that as long as the UK is willing to extend Brexit and the EU insists on justification for an extension then it can be postponed.