Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

AbusesToilets

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Andorra, the Vatican, Monaco, San Marino and Montonegro are in the Euro but not the EU. The term "Eurozone" refers to EU members with the Euro:

Did they have to meet the various requirements, or did they decide to adopt it?

ancapailldorcha

AbusesToilets wrote: »

Did they have to meet the various requirements, or did they decide to adopt it?

They have a monetary agreement which would have come with requirements and rules which would have to be observed.

Dytalus listed criteria for EU member states. The countries I mentioned are all microstates with the exception of possibly Montenegro which would constitute special cases as some of them wouldn't have had their own currency before adopting the Euro.

Hurrache

The ferry farce is a story that just keeps giving, have a read of this thread, but basically the ferry contracts were from the 29th of March, not from the date of Brexit, and to continue for 6 months, ending before Brexit, with no allowances for an extension!
https://twitter.com/beckie__smith/status/1123560317689180160

BonnieSituation

bob mcbob wrote: »

This is an article about how (pretty much) all the media reacted to the independence referendum in 2014. Now that it is on the cards again, you can expect more of the same.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/16/media-shafted-people-scotland-journalists

I remember it all very well. It was awful and so deflating to be watching how people would spout nonsense without any evidence or backup and not be challenged and then the SNP would get grilled to high heaven.

In hindsight it's pretty much how Brexit went re coverage but that idea of biased coverage was all new to us then.

I was sick when they voted against independence knowing how it was all about to play out.

The SNP will be less naive this time.

eire4

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I remember it all very well. It was awful and so deflating to be watching how people would spout nonsense without any evidence or backup and not be challenged and then the SNP would get grilled to high heaven.

In hindsight it's pretty much how Brexit went re coverage but that idea of biased coverage was all new to us then.

I was sick when they voted against independence knowing how it was all about to play out.

The SNP will be less naive this time.

That I recall one of the big sticks used to beat back the referendum especially as the vote got close was to say if you vote yes your out of the EU and you won't get back in. Now here we are and the very people who said you cannot vote yes or you will be out of the EU are the very same English that have indeed voted Scotland out of the EU via brexit.
I just do not see how the scare tactics from London will work a second time around.

briany

eire4 wrote: »

That I recall one of the big sticks used to beat back the referendum especially as the vote got close was to say if you vote yes your out of the EU and you won't get back in. Now here we are and the very people who said you cannot vote yes or you will be out of the EU are the very same English that have indeed voted Scotland out of the EU via brexit.
I just do not see how the scare tactics from London will work a second time around.

Hard to call. I would expect a more bitter campaign all round, but I think it comes down to the pragmatists of the country. For these people, maybe the UK being out of the EU is bad, but a Scotland that is both out of the EU and the UK is even worse for economic isolation. And, yes, the whole point of Scotland leaving the UK would be to rejoin the EU, but that invites the question of how long that would take and how much would living standards suffer in the meantime. I've heard talk that it could be fast tracked, but until we see the process, talk is what it would remain. These are some of the questions I would expect the No campaign to raise.

CrabRevolution

In 2014 the No side painted the pro-independence side as selfish, simplistic, divisive, uncooperative, not looking at the big picture etc. and made it out to be an ugly position to hold vs. the remain campaign of "together" "stable" "shared bonds" etc.

If the Scottish independence referendum were held tomorrow I don't see how the Tory party or even Labour under Corbyn can with a straight face accuse Scotland of doing the exact thing the UK is doing in Europe at the minute, and also paint it as a bad thing.

Well actually I can see that that's exactly what they'll do; enormous hypocrisy and self absorption is pretty much the guiding principal of the UKs politics lately so it the double standard won't even be a problem to them.

Sam Russell

I think the Scottish Indyref was lost mainly because the English Labour Party did not want to lose the 40 seats they held in Scotland, and so make it near impossible for them to form a Gov in the RofUK post ref. As it turned out, they lost all but one seat in Scotland in the subsequent GE, and could not form a Gov anyway. If Scottish LP had backed the ref wholeheartedly, I think it would have carried.

As for the currency an Independent Scotland were to use, it makes little difference. They either track GBP or the EUR, and obviously, they would start tracking the GBP. They can change at any time, and choose it when it is of benefit.

As to when they could join the EU, I would think the EU would agree to accelerated negotiations since they were members for over 45 years, and all the requirements would still apply.

Inquitus

Gavin Williams just got fired from the cabinet by May for leaking the Huawei 5G stuff.





https://g8fip1kplyr33r3krz5b97d1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/PM-Letter-to-Gavin-Williamson-1.pdf

Tell me how

Inquitus wrote: »

Gavin Williams just got fired from the cabinet by May for leaking the Huawei 5G stuff.

Ouch.

it's just one calamity after another.
Everything that went before the 29th of March, then the extension until 12th April, then the longer extension which was greeted by the HoC going on holidays for 2 weeks and then to come back to this.

And this isn't even Brexit related. This will give energy to Labours clamour for a GE.

Complete and utter fiasco since the day she called a snap election after she became PM.

An Ciarraioch

Somewhat tangential, but the first by-election triggered by a recall petition will be held in Peterborough - the Brexit Party is expected to field a candidate, so interesting to see whether the split in the right allows Labour to retain the seat (technically regain it, after the MP lost the whip, before leaving the party):

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/01/disgraced-mp-fiona-onasanya-loses-seat-after-recall-petition

Laois_Man

Tell me how wrote: »

Complete and utter fiasco since the day she called a snap election after she became PM.

I think you'll find it was a fiasco from day 1 of becoming PM which is why she felt the need to call a snap election in the first place....to get a majority greater in number than the number of nitwits in the Tory party.

Except she made a bags of that 'plan' too!

Inquitus

Laois_Man wrote: »

I think you'll find it was a fiasco from day 1 of becoming PM which is why she felt the need to call a snap election in the first place....to get a majority greater in number than the number of nitwits in the Tory party.

Except she made a bags of that 'plan' too!

I do wonder did the bad election shape her very hard Brexit policy with the requisite need to bring the DUP and the ERG onside or was she always that way inclined regardless. She has shown no interest in a softer Brexit despite all the recent multiple "Her Deal" disasters,

demfad

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This is the thing.

For Brexiters, they have two options; Farage's relatively new and squeaky clean for now Brexit party and Gerard Batten's new far right, increasingly racist (amongst other things) UKIP. In 2015, Farage used to rail against the BNP. In 2019, he will use UKIP in the same way. He has styled his party as one committed to upholding the Brexit vote instead of railing against immigrants. Well, limited railing perhaps.

For Remainers such as myself on the other hand, things are more complicated. I have potential Labour and Conservative remain candidates I could vote for. I need to research this a bit further. In addition, there are Change UK, the Lib Dems, the Greens and the Renew party. We know that the d'Hondt system is somewhat proportional but still favours the big parties. Hopefully some bright spark will crunch some numbers so I can find out the best way to vote in my constituency, London. Got my polling card last Tuesday and am all sorted save for making an actual decision.

I think every remainer will vote. Not every Brexiter will. Last poll was 58:42 to remain. Notice the sleek camera work on Brexit 'Rallies' trying to disguise the small crowds.

Farage attacking as he is now is a strenght for that party. If Labour backs a public vote all is lost. So its all out attack on Labour.

But Farage is very very vulnerable if attacked. He has said and done some very silly things as a boy and younger man. He has accepted money off some very dodgy people. He was a bold boy during Brexit and during Trump's election.

THe fundraising this time is enormously dodgy. He badly badly needed cash to get that party in shape quickly. And the cash materialised like magic from a half baked website.

He should have learned the Lance Armstrong lesson: if you get away with it once..do not do the same again.

In a post truth society if you tell the truth often enough it is often believed.

Everything depends on Farage. Remainers should bazooka him to oblivion with his own wide array of vile deeds.

Capt'n Midnight

Hurrache wrote: »

The ferry farce is a story that just keeps giving, have a read of this thread, but basically the ferry contracts were from the 29th of March, not from the date of Brexit, and to continue for 6 months, ending before Brexit, with no allowances for an extension!
twitter.com/beckie__smith/status/1123560317689180160

The current status of that mess https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48117366

The Department for Transport is cancelling contracts to provide extra ferry services after Brexit.

Ending the contracts with Brittany Ferries and DFDS could cost the taxpayer more than £50m.

On top of that there's the £33m in an out of court settlement with Eurotunnel , a company prohibited from running actual ferries.

And P&O are now suing over possible illegal state aid to Eurotunnel.

Capt'n Midnight

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Andorra, the Vatican, Monaco, San Marino and Montonegro are in the Euro but not the EU. The term "Eurozone" refers to EU members with the Euro:

There's also a lot of countries using currencies pegged to the Euro.

Bulgaria , Morocco, and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon.
Benin, Burkina Faso, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory Coast, Mali, Niger, Senegal and Togo.

And there are a lot of small islands using currencies pegged to sterling.
Scotland could easily keep the Scottish Pound. So no need to join the Eurozone and probably not much point as long as the UK is by far their largest trading partner.

demfad

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The current status of that mess https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48117366On top of that there's the £33m in an out of court settlement with Eurotunnel , a company prohibited from running actual ferries.

And P&O are now suing over possible illegal state aid to Eurotunnel.

"Grayling’s calling card is breathtakingly extravagant feats of incompetence that feel almost technical in their execution. To watch him is to have tickets to Berk du Soleil. There is no interval, and you will sit through the entire spectacle to the bitterest of all ends. When Theresa May finally leaves No 10 to become a cricket pundit for beIN Sports, maybe we’ll find out what precisely Grayling had on her to make him this untouchable."

(From Marina Hyde)


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/01/chris-grayling-nigel-farage-march-leave



Edit: Sorry for the comedy but while I'm at it....

“National humiliation is imminent through these ‘indicative votes’.” Imminent?! Never mind Boles’s “still” – take a look at Steve Baker’s “imminent”. Have you ever seen anything as preposterously, forlornly belated as that “imminent”?

I’m afraid it would understate matters to compare this to Rose shivering on the door at the end of Titanic, and observing mildly that an iceberg might be “imminent”. No, on balance, this makes Steve the most disastrous baker since the one who set fire to London in 1666, who I suppose we now have to picture wandering through the smouldering remains of the capital and judging that the time to switch his oven off is “imminent”

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/22/theresa-may-tin-eared-lunatic-apologise-mps

Anteayer

Inquitus wrote: »

Gavin Williams just got fired from the cabinet by May for leaking the Huawei 5G stuff.
https://g8fip1kplyr33r3krz5b97d1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/PM-Letter-to-Gavin-Williamson-1.pdf

Just as a matter of interest, was that letter published or did it also leak?

Capt'n Midnight

Anteayer wrote: »

Just as a matter of interest, was that letter published or did it also leak?

The ship of state is the only one that leaks from the top.
- Yes Minister

A more interesting question is why.
Was he trying to get fired rather than resign ? "You can't fire me I quit !"
Or was it just more incompetence.

Capt'n Midnight

demfad wrote: »

"Grayling’s calling card is breathtakingly extravagant feats of incompetence that feel almost technical in their execution.

Depending on who you believe Failing Grayling has spaffed £2.7Bn up the wall, so far.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/03/world/europe/grayling-ferries-uk.html

Grove is waiting in the wings with a promise to match the £3Bn the farmers got from the EU every year. But that money will be linked to "environmental" stuff so expect that to go about as well as you'd expect.

Enzokk

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Grove is waiting in the wings with a promise to match the £3Bn the farmers got from the EU every year. But that money will be linked to "environmental" stuff so expect that to go about as well as you'd expect.

I suspect that "environmental" will have a lot to do with who you are more than a real system that will reward farmers who is actually moving to more environmentally friendly farming.

Hurrache

The Kindle edition of Fintan O’Tooles Heroic Failure is 99p(1.19 with our VAT) at the moment.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Heroic-Failure-Brexit-Politics-Pain-ebook/dp/B07H984T88

ancapailldorcha

Hurrache wrote: »

The Kindle edition of Fintan O’Tooles Heroic Failure is 99p(1.19 with our VAT) at the moment.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Heroic-Failure-Brexit-Politics-Pain-ebook/dp/B07H984T88

Ian Dunt's book is also on sale for £0.99:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Brexit-What-Hell-Happens-2018-ebook/dp/B076NSY27N/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=ian+dunt&qid=1556749017&s=digital-text&sr=1-1

Hurrache

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Ian Dunt's book is also on sale for £0.99:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Brexit-What-Hell-Happens-2018-ebook/dp/B076NSY27N/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=ian+dunt&qid=1556749017&s=digital-text&sr=1-1

I like his Twitter and articles, but I haven't heard anything about his book. How's it supposed to be?

Sam Russell

Enzokk wrote: »

I suspect that "environmental" will have a lot to do with who you are more than a real system that will reward farmers who is actually moving to more environmentally friendly farming.

Large land owners get a lot of the EU dosh. One of the biggest non artistos is Dyson.

I guess many of them are donors to the Tories.

L1011

Dacre was always the example of a large land owner taking substantial EU payments while railing against the EU.

ancapailldorcha

Hurrache wrote: »

I like his Twitter and articles, but I haven't heard anything about his book. How's it supposed to be?

I haven't read it. I've seen his name crop up a few times. I wonder if it might be outdated given all that's happened since it was published a few months after the referendum.

oscarBravo

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I haven't read it. I've seen his name crop up a few times. I wonder if it might be outdated given all that's happened since it was published a few months after the referendum.

I read it - it's a good read. I'd agree that it's likely somewhat outdated now, and probably doesn't have anything new for dedicated followers of fashion this forum.

An Ciarraioch

Latest UK poll for the Europeans, with seat projections:

http://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1123907104148946945

Hurrache

Just heard on the News at 1, Bombardier selling up completely in the north for consolidation purposes. Probably little to do with Brexit but adds to the issues up there.