Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Akrasia

'Brexit Backlash'
the story of the day so far

https://election.news.sky.com/england-local-council-elections-26

CON
−433

LAB
−85

LIB DEM
+302

UKIP
−54

OTHER (greens making big gains as well as independents)
+270

FreudianSlippers

I'm not sure I'd fancy a general election if I were the Conservatives or Labour at the moment!

Akrasia

The greens are up 40 according to the Guardian's tracker. Some of the figures are different between the Guardian and other media as the Guardian count the results as of the dissollution of the councils rather than the results from the previous Local elections
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/may/02/local-elections-2019-live-results-for-english-councils

A Dub in Glasgo

Potential future Tory leader and potential UK PM Johnson with another gaff, it would be a laugh if this man became UK PM

https://twitter.com/jessbrammar/status/1124229896635584513


Media saviour of the Tories in Scotland displaying her usual waffle when put under a bit of scrutiny (Davidson is actually a media construct who has used her old pals act especially in the BBC to continully give her a free run)

https://twitter.com/jim45cotland/status/1124053919695613962

Akrasia

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

I'm not sure I'd fancy a general election if I were the Conservatives or Labour at the moment!

Some of the brexiteers have spoken to the press saying that the public are just annoyed that they have been so slow to deliver brexit and that they should just leave ASAP. They're clearly worried about the prospect of either a general election or a 2nd referendum.

I'd be very interested in the breakdown of what kinds of independents have been elected. Are they strongly pro-brexit independents, or strongly pro-leave, or are they focused on other local issues which have been sidelined throughout this saga.

Hurrache

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

I'm not sure I'd fancy a general election if I were the Conservatives or Labour at the moment!

So more stagnation between now and Halloween as neither will want to trigger a election.

lawred2

Akrasia wrote: »

Some of the brexiteers have spoken to the press saying that the public are just annoyed that they have been so slow to deliver brexit and that they should just leave ASAP. They're clearly worried about the prospect of either a general election or a 2nd referendum.

I'd be very interested in the breakdown of what kinds of independents have been elected. Are they strongly pro-brexit independents, or strongly pro-leave, or are they focused on other local issues which have been sidelined throughout this saga.

Takes either some serious mental contortions to think like that or some serious levels of composure to deliver that with a straight face...

If you were concerned about the 'slow' pace of delivering Brexit - why would you vote for remain candidates who would like to see Brexit buried forever?

quokula

Akrasia wrote: »

Some of the brexiteers have spoken to the press saying that the public are just annoyed that they have been so slow to deliver brexit and that they should just leave ASAP. They're clearly worried about the prospect of either a general election or a 2nd referendum.

I'd be very interested in the breakdown of what kinds of independents have been elected. Are they strongly pro-brexit independents, or strongly pro-leave, or are they focused on other local issues which have been sidelined throughout this saga.

I've seen it reported that a number of the Independents are former Ukip, and generally lean pro Brexit.

It's worth noting that Farage's Brexit party isn't running and Ukip aren't running in something like 70% of areas that they ran in last time, due to the party split.

Many voters are not voting Tory because they are unhappy about Brexit being delayed, while Labour are also most widely seen as a remain party (even though many remainers see them otherwise) - so we're seeing a lean towards independents and smaller parties.

There's also the fact that the Lib Dems suffered huge losses last time around as a protest of their core voters against their coalition with the Tories, so many of their gains are just a return to status quo.

I suspect the Euro elections in a few weeks with Farage's party running will see very different results. It might be overly optimistic to see these results as a win for remain.

Akrasia

lawred2 wrote: »

Takes either some serious mental contortions to think like that or some serious levels of composure to deliver that with a straight face...

If you were concerned about the 'slow' pace of delivering Brexit - why would you vote for remain candidates who would like to see Brexit buried forever?

Unless the combined vote of both labour and the Tories are below 50% of the total seats in the election (which was never going to happen), you'll see these people saying 'Most people voted for pro-Brexit parties in the local elections'

It's the same spin they used to justify Brexit after the Conservatives lost their majority in the last General Election.

You'll also have spin around the fact that the Brexit party didn't contest the local elections and that UKIP ran fewer candidates etc etc etc

There is no shortage of ways a politician can spin the results of this election to justify their own position.

bilston

Potentially positive results from a Remain perspective, but the real test will be the Euro elections and sadly I expect the Brexit Party to do well.

jochenstacker

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48142181

Labour has also had a disappointing night, losing about 80 seats to date.

Speaking in Greater Manchester, Jeremy Corbyn said he "wanted to do better" and conceded voters who disagreed with its backing for Brexit had deserted the party.

Jesus Tapdancing Christ! Has he finally seen the light?
Has Corbyn realised that he is standing inches in front of an open goal and all he has to do is nudge the ball over the line?
You wonder sometimes...

Headshot

Watching Election 2019 coverage on BBC2 at the moment

Diane Abbott does talk such nonsense

Tabnabs

Labour has lost overall control in party stronghold Bolsover for the first time. There's one the Beast won't be crowing over...

Harry Palmr

The Taffs are rebelling - May heckled in Wales at party conference

.https://twitter.com/evanoconnell/status/1124278569688018944

Seth Brundle

Trying to follow the NI count via various news sites and, so far (it's early yet), it looks like the DUP have not been punished by the electorate.

Seth Brundle

Harry Palmr wrote: »

The Taffs are rebelling - May heckled in Wales at party conference

.https://twitter.com/evanoconnell/status/1124278569688018944

...and he gets kicked out?

lawred2

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Trying to follow the NI count via various news sites and, so far (it's early yet), it looks like the DUP have not been punished by the electorate.

I almost fell off my chair :rolleyes:

Sometimes in life you get what you deserve. Especially when you vote based on identity or a dislike of others.

FreudianSlippers

Although Torys have held Tunbridge Wells, they lost 28% of their seats there... that's a massive blow to them.

ballsymchugh

Headshot wrote: »

Watching Election 2019 coverage on BBC2 at the moment

Diane Abbott does talk such nonsense

along with Barry Gardiner, Rebecca Long Bailey and Lisa Nandy.

Labour just lose voters when they speak.

At least Emily Thornberry has realised her constituency is getting fed up and is beginning to talk less nonsense lately.

boggerman1

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Trying to follow the NI count via various news sites and, so far (it's early yet), it looks like the DUP have not been punished by the electorate.

So nothing new in backwards NI.depressing

LeinsterDub

boggerman1 wrote: »

So nothing new in backwards NI.depressing

Would it be far to say the order of importance of elections in NI is Assembly, National, Local , Europe?

First Up

boggerman1 wrote:

So nothing new in backwards NI.depressing

Entrenched tribalism; nothing new there.

farmchoice

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Would it be far to say the order of importance of elections in NI is Assembly, National, Local , Europe?

with the assembly suspended these local elections are a bit more important then usual.

northern Ireland is and always has been a political basket case

Laois_Man

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Trying to follow the NI count via various news sites and, so far (it's early yet), it looks like the DUP have not been punished by the electorate.

The DUP have been doing exactly what DUP voters wanted them to do - no matter how idiotic it is - I don't know why people are expecting them to be "punished".

bilston wrote: »

Potentially positive results from a Remain perspective, but the real test will be the Euro elections and sadly I expect the Brexit Party to do well.

Euro elections are a different animal....sadly it will be decided by those with a passionate dislike for the EU who have far more motivation to get out and vote. It wouldn't say the Euro result would be at all indicative of the likely result in a second referendum - but the Brexiteers will try to paint it that way.

Strazdas

bilston wrote: »

Potentially positive results from a Remain perspective, but the real test will be the Euro elections and sadly I expect the Brexit Party to do well.

Fascinating to see how this is being spun. The Tories and Labour leadership are in total denial and trying to claim this is somehow a vote for Brexit

But the responses on Twitter are very telling and most people recognise this was an anti-Brexit vote. Keep in mind by the way that the Brexit Party are only expected to get around 30% of the votes max. It's a big amount certainly but it's probably the upper ceiling of where hard Brexiteers are.

Seth Brundle

Laois_Man wrote: »

The DUP have been doing exactly what DUP voters wanted them to do - no matter how idiotic it is - I don't know why people are expecting them to be "punished".

I didn't expect it to be like this (and I'm aware that it's early yet)...


The most up-to-date count I can find is https://elections.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/ni-local-election-2019

WomanSkirtFan8

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I didn't expect it to be like this (and I'm aware that it's early yet)...


The most up-to-date count I can find is https://elections.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/ni-local-election-2019

that's extremely interesting. Looks like people in NI have more faith in the Alliance Party than Sinn Fein at the moment. That could be extremely interesting in the days and months ahead.



Thats a hell of a battering the Conservatives and the Labour Party have taken. No doubt it'll further increase pressure on TM To quit as British PM.:eek:

I just read 819 people ran for 462 seats in NI? So even by running, you'd have more than a 50% chance of winning? That sounds very good odds to me, and also explains how DUP keep getting elected!

2,038 candidates for 949 seats in the 2014 republic council election.

I'm actually surprised. I thought the ratio of winners:losers would have been around 1:4

Seth Brundle

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

that's extremely interesting. Looks like people in NI have more faith in the Alliance Party than Sinn Fein at the moment. That could be extremely interesting in the days and months ahead.

It could also just be the constituiences counted so far.
Currently it is now DUP=22, AP=14, SF=9 & UUP=9

darem93

It is so disheartening to see the DUP doing so well in these local elections. After all their antics over the past 2 years you'd have expected them to get annihilated, but it seems like the exact opposite.

When will the North ever get out of this tribalism that seems to grip every single election?