Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

josip

darem93 wrote: »

It is so disheartening to see the DUP doing so well in these local elections. After all their antics over the past 2 years you'd have expected them to get annihilated, but it seems like the exact opposite.

When will the North ever get out of this tribalism that seems to grip every single election?

Well it took us the biggest recession we've ever seen and the arrival of the IMF to get out of ours.

dublinman1990

If you're near a TV. BBC One Northern Ireland's local election programme will start in a few minutes.

FrancieBrady

darem93 wrote: »

It is so disheartening to see the DUP doing so well in these local elections. After all their antics over the past 2 years you'd have expected them to get annihilated, but it seems like the exact opposite.

When will the North ever get out of this tribalism that seems to grip every single election?

I wouldn't read very much into it to be honest.
Local elections are very much that - local.
I think some shifting will be seen in the EU elections. Who that favours will be interesting.

An Ciarraioch

darem93 wrote: »

It is so disheartening to see the DUP doing so well in these local elections. After all their antics over the past 2 years you'd have expected them to get annihilated, but it seems like the exact opposite.

When will the North ever get out of this tribalism that seems to grip every single election?

You could argue they are already doing so, with Remainers deserting the UUP and moving en masse to Alliance, with the Greens also making smaller gains.

An Ciarraioch

Seth Brundle wrote: »

It could also just be the constituiences counted so far.
Currently it is now DUP=22, AP=14, SF=9 & UUP=9

Yes, mostly unionist councils so far - Alliance also with an outside chance in Derry and Strabane, and a more realistic prospect in Fermanagh and Omagh.

FrancieBrady

Fairly significant loss for the DUP I would have thought.

https://twitter.com/BelTel/status/1124336137865170945

L1011

Deleted User wrote: »

I just read 819 people ran for 462 seats in NI? So even by running, you'd have more than a 50% chance of winning? That sounds very good odds to me, and also explains how DUP keep getting elected!

2,038 candidates for 949 seats in the 2014 republic council election.

I'm actually surprised. I thought the ratio of winners:losers would have been around 1:4

I've seen a district with only two more candidates than seats down here.

Faugheen

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Fairly significant loss for the DUP I would have thought.

https://twitter.com/BelTel/status/1124336137865170945

Significant but at the same time not overly surprising either. It had been expected in the lead up that he would have a tough day.

For Forks Sake

Current state of things in NI:

FrancieBrady

Faugheen wrote: »

Significant but at the same time not overly surprising either. It had been expected in the lead up that he would have a tough day.

Why so? I'm not aware of the local issues.

charlie14

josip wrote: »

Well it took us the biggest recession we've ever seen and the arrival of the IMF to get out of ours.

I don`t see how we did.

We just switched Tweedledum for Tweedledee.

Nothing new there, and from polls not for the foreseeable future either.

Capt'n Midnight

boggerman1 wrote: »

So nothing new in backwards NI.depressing

How about this ?

The first-openly gay candidate to stand for the DUP, Alison Bennington, has been elected.

It's unlikely the TUV will be following this move anytime soon. And I doubt it represents a sea change on Brexit.

Capt'n Midnight

Because of the FPTP system it's hard to tell who people were voting for instead of against.

LD's should be cleaning up but lot of votes going to independents , awaiting analysis of how many were to ex-UKIP or other identifiable groups rather than local issue independents.

Itssoeasy

You know it's bad when Theresa May thinks that saying that Labour lost as well that it makes up for the conservative party loses. I mean can she just go at this stage as I'm actually starting to feel sorry for her again.

Itssoeasy

It's just been said on BBC five live that the Conservatives have now lost over a 1,000 seats. How does that happen ? No political party leader in a normal political situation would survive even half of those.

10000maniacs

It just means a lot of Nationalists trust the Alliance over Sinn Fein for local issues.

lawred2

10000maniacs wrote: »

It just means a lot of Nationalists trust the Alliance over Sinn Fein for local issues.

Maybe recent goings on in Derry have lost middle ground Republicans?

WomanSkirtFan8

Seth Brundle wrote: »

It could also just be the constituiences counted so far.
Currently it is now DUP=22, AP=14, SF=9 & UUP=9

Absolutely. I suppose we'll just have to wait and see what the final results are.

WomanSkirtFan8

Itssoeasy wrote: »

It's just been said on BBC five live that the Conservatives have now lost over a 1,000 seats. How does that happen ? No political party leader in a normal political situation would survive even half of those.

Indeed. It's extremely difficult to see how TM can stay on as British PM after this disaster. :cool:

L1011

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

Indeed. It's extremely difficult to see how TM can stay on as British PM after this disaster. :cool:

Which is what has been said after basically every other disaster along the way.

So she's unlikely to go anywhere.

FrancieBrady

lawred2 wrote: »

Maybe recent goings on in Derry have lost middle ground Republicans?

SF's tally people are predicting little change. Normally a fairly accurate tally according to RTE reporter.

Faugheen

L1011 wrote: »

Which is what has been said after basically every other disaster along the way.

So she's unlikely to go anywhere.

She won't go anywhere because nobody wants to be the Prime Minister that delivers Brexit.

She has the safest position in the country. Tories will revolt against her but they'll vote against any confidence vote in her because they don't want to give Jeremy Corbyn any chance of being PM.

Enzokk

I am baffled that the two parties that campaigned on delivering Brexit has either lost more than 1300 or, as John McDonnell was predicting the other could win over 400 seats and lost about 80, sees this result as an indication that people want to just get on with Brexit. People were warning that Corbyn would destroy Labour support and he defied those predictions in the beginning. But are we seeing his policies causing problems people were predicting? It wasn't his socialist policies but his views on Brexit. That is a little funny.

Corbyn says local elections show voters want deal done on Brexit

Jeremy Corbyn has claimed the local election results indicated voters want MPs to “get a deal done” on Brexit, after his party suffered heavy losses.

Labour had hoped the results would signal it was poised to take power at a general election, with the shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, suggesting on Thursday night it might gain 400 seats.

But by Friday evening, the party had suffered a net loss of more than 60 seats.

briany

Faugheen wrote: »

She won't go anywhere because nobody wants to be the Prime Minister that delivers Brexit.

She has the safest position in the country. Tories will revolt against her but they'll vote against any confidence vote in her because they don't want to give Jeremy Corbyn any chance of being PM.

Nobody wants to be the PM who delivers Brexit, but who wants to be in the party of the PM who delivers Brexit?

If nobody wants to be in the hotseat for Brexit, that makes it sound like Brexit is a disaster. If Brexit is a disaster, you surely wouldn't want any association with its implementation. I know politicians have this single-minded fixation on power sometimes, but if you're a Conservative strategist, would it be worthwhile to propose that letting Corbyn in would be the very thing they should do, so that it is he who will take the flack when the SHTF and then it is Labour who will become un-electable for a generation, not the Conservatives?

Jim2007

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

Indeed. It's extremely difficult to see how TM can stay on as British PM after this disaster. :cool:

It is the exact opposite. It just confirms what lies a head for anyone with leadership expectations - a very short career. Best keep the head down and leave it to May. If it works out you can always claim you supported it and if not you can claim you would never have done such a stupid thing.

Igotadose

Enzokk wrote: »

I am baffled that the two parties that campaigned on delivering Brexit has either lost more than 1300 or, as John McDonnell was predicting the other could win over 400 seats and lost about 80, sees this result as an indication that people want to just get on with Brexit. People were warning that Corbyn would destroy Labour support and he defied those predictions in the beginning. But are we seeing his policies causing problems people were predicting? It wasn't his socialist policies but his views on Brexit. That is a little funny.

This. There's a somewhat unbelievable amount of pigheadedness in the leadership of both parties. Badly beaten at the local level (and the quote 'all politics is local' comes to mind), it's a repudiation of their policies.

LibDems now run JRM's local council: https://www.indy100.com/article/local-elections-jacob-rees-mogg-liberal-democrat-brexit-bath-north-east-somerset-council-8897816

ArmaniJeanss

L1011 wrote: »

I've seen a district with only two more candidates than seats down here.

Whereabouts? I'm not doubting you but I'd be surprised.
FF & FG are usually happy to run more candidates than they can reasonably expect to get elected (but it gives the failing candidates a bit of experience, and they can be useful for upward transfers), and most wards tend to have a couple of single issue independents/no-hopers.

L1011

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Whereabouts? I'm not doubting you but I'd be surprised.
FF & FG are usually happy to run more candidates than they can reasonably expect to get elected (but it gives the failing candidates a bit of experience, and they can be useful for upward transfers), and most wards tend to have a couple of single issue independents/no-hopers.

It was actually one over - Malahide-Howth currently has 8 candidates for 7 seats. But there could be a rush of Independents tomorrow morning and/or Fingal CC aren't updating the list properly - but the other LEAs look more sensible so I doubt that.

http://www.fingalcoco.ie/media/Malahide-Howth%20LEA.pdf

If it stays like that its one count and goodnight (or good morning, really)

Thargor

Saw this on Reddit, Lib Dem campaign poster from 2010:

Enzokk

Thargor wrote: »

Saw this on Reddit, Lib Dem campaign poster from 2010:

Interesting, but it is easy to promise something when you know you will not be able to deliver on it. That is exactly what Cameron tried to do. They would have campaigned to remain though.

On Remainiacs one of the guests made the observation that the referendum was always going to be difficult to win because you usually offer a referendum asking a question about changing something, whether a law or membership of the EU. Now as the government asking the question you need to get behind the change otherwise you are arguing for keeping things the same and with Brexit and people not feeling the recovery the Tories were shouting about, asking them to keep things like they are when they have had austerity on them for the last 6 years was madness.