Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Zubeneschamali

Enzokk wrote: »

On Remainiacs one of the guests made the observation that the referendum was always going to be difficult to win because you usually offer a referendum asking a question about changing something, whether a law or membership of the EU. Now as the government asking the question you need to get behind the change otherwise you are arguing for keeping things the same and with Brexit and people not feeling the recovery the Tories were shouting about, asking them to keep things like they are when they have had austerity on them for the last 6 years was madness.

We have had more than one referendum in Ireland where people voted against the Government because the Government was unpopular, a chance to "teach them a lesson".


A referendum is the perfect chance to do this for people who normally support the party in government, since at an election you risk helping the other party which your family have hated since the civil war.

That Lib Dem thing looks like something from Viz. Is it real?

CrabRevolution

Deleted User wrote: »

That Lib Dem thing looks like something from Viz. Is it real?

That's my first thought too. It even uses the retro style formatting and (non) colour scheme that Viz uses for some of their pieces.

Thargor

No its definitely real:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/bk866v/lib_dems_campaign_poster_from_2010/

Kermit.de.frog

I see the Daily Express have spoken to a "top former diplomat" from Ireland explaining when Irexit is inevitable.

I'd offer a cookie to whoever guesses correctly who the "top diplomat" is but I feel I don't need to.

This is the rubblish propaganda (that's what it is) being put in the British press.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1122607/brexit-news-ireland-eu-irish-freedom-party-brussels-backstop

First Up

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

I see the Daily Express have spoken to a "top former diplomat" from Ireland explaining when Irexit is inevitable.

The Express desperately needs stuff to keep the fires burning and Bassett desperately needs someone to listen to him.

Nice that they found each other while scraping the bottom of the barrel.

L1011

Their front cover - my local newsagent sells it surreally; but they do have a huge range of papers still - is screaming that the results show strong support for Brexit.

They really are trying to see how far they go with Newspeak aren't they?

Tell me how

L1011 wrote: »

Their front cover - my local newsagent sells it surreally; but they do have a huge range of papers still - is screaming that the results show strong support for Brexit.

They really are trying to see how far they go with Newspeak aren't they?

If a leader in any other country greeted the results of the local elections, as they were, with a statement within 24 hours that it showed people just wanted the government to get on with Brexit, they would be condemned for being dictatorial. May's statement is a chilling indication that democracy is determined by those at the wheel.
And to have it parroted by prominent BBC journalists is even more unnerving.

I suspect that Labour/Tory unofficial conversations could be about an un-announced agreement to maintain some form of control between themselves before the Lib Dems and others become two powerful at the next GE.

Sam Russell

So https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/uk-defence-secretary-sacked-after-huawei-leak-inquiry-1.3877722 a Defence Secretary for leaking secrets from a National Security Council meeting is not worthy of consideration as a breech of the Official Secrets Act.


Nor will there be an inquiry into the illegal Brexit Referendum by Leave.EU. It appears the Tories and their friends are immune from action be Law Enforcement no matter what they do.

Plus a pay off for Williamson.

L1011

Tell me how wrote: »

I suspect that Labour/Tory unofficial conversations could be about an un-announced agreement to maintain some form of control between themselves before the Lib Dems and others become two powerful at the next GE.

The Lib Dems taking councils in the areas of some senior Tories - Rees Mogg and Francois I think amongst others - should give them a proper fright. Lib Dems always do closer to proportional at local level due to smaller wards and some multi-past-the-post wards that allow strong local names to get ahead of party levels; but the areas where they have traditionally held local councils are the areas they have traditionally won Westminster seats.

Just had a thought - is there any chance at all that there is a UK forum where posters are able to discuss, with some level of confidence, the impacts of council level changes on national votes in Ireland? :pac:

Enzokk

L1011 wrote: »

The Lib Dems taking councils in the areas of some senior Tories - Rees Mogg and Francois I think amongst others - should give them a proper fright. Lib Dems always do closer to proportional at local level due to smaller wards and some multi-past-the-post wards that allow strong local names to get ahead of party levels; but the areas where they have traditionally held local councils are the areas they have traditionally won Westminster seats.

It helps the party to increase their visibility to voters outside of the HoC. That is momentum that they lost in 2015 due to their decisions as part of the government.

I see a lot of chatter all of a sudden that there will be a deal between Corbyn and May on Brexit. It seems they have been spooked by the election results and we could see them agreeing to back some sort of Brexit. What that is remains to be seen as the only deal on the table is still the WA that May negotiated and Corbyn has pilloried constantly. Either we see the UK once again deciding to back a deal that is not on the table, or we see Labour under Corbyn enabling a hard Brexit (that is what her deal is). Fascinating times ahead in politics in the UK right now.

judeboy101

gains for DUP in NI, seems 1 billion quid and saying NO has a positive effect on the electorate

L1011

Enzokk wrote: »

What that is remains to be seen as the only deal on the table is still the WA that May negotiated and Corbyn has pilloried constantly.

A changed deal can be negotiated if May's "red lines" are removed; the suggestion is that one of them will be in any 'deal' with Corbyn.

judeboy101 wrote: »

gains for DUP in NI, seems 1 billion quid and saying NO has a positive effect on the electorate

Realistically just consolidating the hard Unionist vote as the UUP continue to melt away and the small unionist parties vanish. Overall Unionist vote is down, again.

reslfj

L1011 wrote: »

A changed deal can be negotiated if May's "red lines" are removed; the suggestion is that one of them will be in any 'deal' with Corbyn.

The WA can't and won't be reopened and renegotiated.

The island of GB can leave the CU. But NI can't, it will de facto have to stay in the SM for goods. But the UK wide CU was a UK proposal and an EU concession.

The political declaration - the future trade agreements - is, however, just a declaration and everything can be negotiated and negotiated differently if red lines change (but of course the EU27 will not agree to everything).

Lars

L1011

reslfj wrote: »

The WA can't and won't be reopened and renegotiated.

That is only true if the position the UK is negotiating from remains the same. If May drops some of her red lines, they can renegotiate. It may end up much the same - the important stuff is to come later regardless.

reslfj

L1011 wrote: »

That is only true if the position the UK is negotiating from remains the same. If May drops some of her red lines, they can renegotiate. It may end up much the same - the important stuff is to come later regardless.

NO Way.

Except in case of a Revoke of A50.

If a future agreement will eliminate the need Irish backstop, it will just stay inactive.

But the as such the WA is over and done.

Even in case of a 'No Deal' the WA text will be a prerequisite for any negotiations with the EU27

Lars

briany

reslfj wrote: »

Even in case of a 'No Deal' the WA text will be a prerequisite for any negotiations with the EU27

Lars

And that's what no-deal advocates fail to address. What, exactly do they think the long-term situation would be re EU trade after a crash-out? Do they think it will do for the British economy to suddenly go from open trade to a 3rd country, and in perpetuity? I think those in the UK who say "They need us more than we need them" are also of the mind that the EU will eventually drop that foolishness about the backstop and sit down for trade discussions in good faith. They may be waiting some time in that case.

judeboy101

L1011 wrote: »

A changed deal can be negotiated if May's "red lines" are removed; the suggestion is that one of them will be in any 'deal' with Corbyn.





Realistically just consolidating the hard Unionist vote as the UUP continue to melt away and the small unionist parties vanish. Overall Unionist vote is down, again.

The alliance made huge gains, last I looked they were a unionist party.

A Dub in Glasgo

The Tories continue to refuse Scotland another independence referendum and the British Government now resorts to lying about Brexit was known during the last referendum

Meanwhile in Glasgow today

https://twitter.com/MammothWhale/status/1124679890710798336

reslfj

briany wrote: »

....are also of the mind that the EU will eventually drop that foolishness about the backstop and sit down for trade discussions in good faith.

They may be waiting some time in that case.

Until Hell freezes over, I guess.

Someone earlier in this thread wrote "not in a billion years" - and I will accept that, too.

The real problem is of course that all Brexits will be much, much worse and some Brexits directly disastrous for the UK compared to the UK's present EU membership - and indeed to any EU membership.

Lars

judeboy101

judeboy101 wrote: »

The alliance made huge gains, last I looked they were a unionist party.

Are they not an alliance of both?

BonnieSituation

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Are they not an alliance of both?

They WERE unionist designated. They are unionist in outlook. But you may call them pragmatic unionist. Essentially the Mike Nesbitt of a party.

L1011

judeboy101 wrote: »

The alliance made huge gains, last I looked they were a unionist party.

Alliance have not been unionist, small or big U, for decades. That doesn't make them nationalist - the reliance on A or B, no C politics is a severe issue in NI.

reslfj wrote: »

NO Way.

Except in case of a Revoke of A50.

If a future agreement will eliminate the need Irish backstop, it will just stay inactive.

But the as such the WA is over and done.

Even in case of a 'No Deal' the WA text will be a prerequisite for any negotiations with the EU27

Lars

Removing the backstop isn't an option from the EU side. The UK can offer changes from their side that don't breach EU requirements and those are acceptable for renegotiation.

This has been the case all the way through, since October/November or whenever the deal was done. It was non-negotiable only as long as
May kept her "red lines"

briany

The only Brexiteers (on the ground) who are annoyed about the proposed backstop are those in Northern Ireland. Elsewhere in the UK, they'd gladly cut NI loose to get a deal, considering it a small price to pay. Since the NI issues was of little consideration to Brexiteers before that referendum, why would it be any bigger a consideration now?

Give the people of NI a referendum on whether to accept the backstop. That's a referendum which I suspect would find more acceptance in the UK than the one currently proposed.

prinzeugen

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The Tories continue to refuse Scotland another independence referendum and the British Government now resorts to lying about Brexit was known during the last referendum

Meanwhile in Glasgow today

https://twitter.com/MammothWhale/status/1124679890710798336

The Tories are refusing the SNP another referendum. Its the SNP that wants it NOT Scotland. The SNP do not represent every Scottish person.

And wings over Scotland is not a reliable source. Its a pro independence "fake news" blog.

It was proven during a recent court case in the in Edinburgh. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-47963759

The guy that runs that site loves Scotland so much that he lives in... England!!

lawred2

prinzeugen wrote: »

The Tories are refusing the SNP another referendum. Its the SNP that wants it NOT Scotland. The SNP do not represent every Scottish person.

And wings over Scotland is not a reliable source. Its a pro independence "fake news" blog.

It was proven during a recent court case in the in Edinburgh. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-47963759

The guy that runs that site loves Scotland so much that he lives in... England!!

It's a fake news blog because the site owner is a Scottish expat?

What's the relevance of the linked article which describes a case where his accusation of defamation against someone was pretty much upheld? In fact that judgement bordered on illogical and bizarre..

"Her comments were fair, even though incorrect" - some spin on that article to declare that as a 'win' for Kezia.. not sure how something can be both fair and incorrect at the same time but there you are..

What exactly was proven with regards to fake news though?

I'm not following

downcow

L1011 wrote: »

Realistically just consolidating the hard Unionist vote as the UUP continue to melt away and the small unionist parties vanish. Overall Unionist vote is down, again.

That’s quite a spin.
Miight be what many wish for but the facts are different.
DUP up 1%
SF. Down 1%
UUP. down 2%
SDLP. Down 2%
Alliance. Up 5% (which is a soft unionist party)

I was very pleasantly surprised as a unionist as I had listened to so many predictions that the 10000s joining the electoral register would be mainly young nationalists and that the union would take a hammering. The opposite was the case.
And fantastic to see first DUP gay candidate elected.

listermint

downcow wrote: »

That’s quite a spin.
Miight be what many wish for but the facts are different.
DUP up 1%
SF. Down 1%
UUP. down 2%
SDLP. Down 2%
Alliance. Up 5% (which is a soft unionist party)

I was very pleasantly surprised as a unionist as I had listened to so many predictions that the 10000s joining the electoral register would be mainly young nationalists and that the union would take a hammering. The opposite was the case.
And fantastic to see first DUP gay candidate elected.

I thought SF held its 105 seats and the dup lost a load of them to the alliance party. Also SDLP won seats.

It appears unionists are down or are you spinning

FrancieBrady

listermint wrote: »

I thought SF held its 105 seats and the dup lost a load of them to the alliance party. Also SDLP won seats.

It appears unionists are down or are you spinning

DUP lost 8 seats.
Combined unionist vote is down, continuing the trend.

SF did hold it's total seat number, but lost ground in Derry.

SDLP continues to lose ground.

Alliance were the big winners with the Greens doing well.

woohoo!!!

The tribal head count per usual, it is what it is. Good to see an increase in the middle ground for alliance and greens. Interesting about the gay candidate getting elected, biggest opposition from within own party.