Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

listermint

woohoo!!! wrote: »

The tribal head count per usual, it is what it is. Good to see an increase in the middle ground for alliance and greens. Interesting about the gay candidate getting elected, biggest opposition from within own party.

Seems like an increase in the middle ground at the expense of the DUP.

So I'm intrigued by downcows analysis.

Its similar to Theresa Mays analysis of the local election result meaning more brexit please.

woohoo!!!

listermint wrote: »

woohoo!!! wrote: »

The tribal head count per usual, it is what it is. Good to see an increase in the middle ground for alliance and greens. Interesting about the gay candidate getting elected, biggest opposition from within own party.

Seems like an increase in the middle ground at the expense of the DUP.

So I'm intrigued by downcows analysis.

Its similar to Theresa Mays analysis of the local election result meaning more brexit please.

I think DUP and Alliance are eating into other unionist parties, from different ends. SF seem to have hit a wall. SDLP have held on, and UUP are the biggest losers.

The centre ground of alliance, greens and independents hold the balance of power between the two tribes. This is good.

downcow

listermint wrote: »

Seems like an increase in the middle ground at the expense of the DUP.

So I'm intrigued by downcows analysis.

Its similar to Theresa Mays analysis of the local election result meaning more brexit please.

Why would you be intrigued that I would not be pleased with :
Middle ground increased
Anyone I know in alliance are soft unionist who would describe themselves as northern Irish and have no interest in a UI
Dup vote up
Sf vote down
Gay dup candidate elected.
What’s is there to not like about any of that especially given the big increase in young electorate.

I have no idea why you are interpreting the election that dup have lost voters to alliance. A wee bit of evidence on that one would be useful?

A Dub in Glasgo

prinzeugen wrote: »

The Tories are refusing the SNP another referendum. Its the SNP that wants it NOT Scotland. The SNP do not represent every Scottish person.

And wings over Scotland is not a reliable source. Its a pro independence "fake news" blog.

The Tories (who got 28.6% of the vote in Scotland) are refusing the Scottish Parliament another referendum

You do not address the lying at all from Mundell

FrancieBrady

woohoo!!! wrote: »

I think DUP and Alliance are eating into other unionist parties, from different ends. SF seem to have hit a wall. SDLP have held on, and UUP are the biggest losers.

The centre ground of alliance, greens and independents hold the balance of power between the two tribes. This is good.

Slugger is one of the first out of the blocks to explain where the Alliance surge is coming from.

What is notable is the fact that Alliance is getting votes from unionists. This has always been the case but it’s particularly significant in this election. Maybe, finally, the blowhards will stop calling the party ‘pan-nationalist.’

Alliance’s growth in unionist votes shouldn’t be a surprise. Middle class, liberal voters that would have traditionally backed the Ulster Unionists are disillusioned with a party that changes its mind about its heart and soul every time the wind changes. The party tried to go in a more moderate direction under Mike Nesbitt and was roundly derided. It’s started sounding DUP lite under Robin Swann.

https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/05/04/alliance-party-gains-point-to-a-problem-within-unionism/

woohoo!!!

FrancieBrady wrote: »

woohoo!!! wrote: »

I think DUP and Alliance are eating into other unionist parties, from different ends. SF seem to have hit a wall. SDLP have held on, and UUP are the biggest losers.

The centre ground of alliance, greens and independents hold the balance of power between the two tribes. This is good.

Slugger is one of the first out of the blocks to explain where the Alliance surge is coming from.

What is notable is the fact that Alliance is getting votes from unionists. This has always been the case but it’s particularly significant in this election. Maybe, finally, the blowhards will stop calling the party ‘pan-nationalist.’

Alliance’s growth in unionist votes shouldn’t be a surprise. Middle class, liberal voters that would have traditionally backed the Ulster Unionists are disillusioned with a party that changes its mind about its heart and soul every time the wind changes. The party tried to go in a more moderate direction under Mike Nesbitt and was roundly derided. It’s started sounding DUP lite under Robin Swann.

https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/05/04/alliance-party-gains-point-to-a-problem-within-unionism/

Unionist background and think Brexit is a bad idea, Alliance is the obvious choice. Other unionist parties offer harder forms of unionism to outdo each other.

Main point is the centre approx 20% will decide things

listermint

downcow wrote: »

Why would you be intrigued that I would not be pleased with :
Middle ground increased
Anyone I know in alliance are soft unionist who would describe themselves as northern Irish and have no interest in a UI
Dup vote up
Sf vote down
Gay dup candidate elected.
What’s is there to not like about any of that especially given the big increase in young electorate.

I have no idea why you are interpreting the election that dup have lost voters to alliance. A wee bit of evidence on that one would be useful?

No I'm intrigued by your analysis. It's not unionists gaining here. It's the centre ground. Which is not what you said nor the stats you provided either

downcow

listermint wrote: »

No I'm intrigued by your analysis. It's not unionists gaining here. It's the centre ground. Which is not what you said nor the stats you provided either

I thought I provided very accurate stats but apologies if I made a mistake. Which stats did you think were wrong?
Remember this is a PR election so seats simply tell you who managed their vote best which parties learn from. The key in every election is votes cast for parties.
Whilst I can’t abide the alliance they are still a small u unionist party. So the only people should be disappointed by this election are republicans and nationalists as both votes fell. And this was after them telling us about the amazing impact all the new young voters would make to a UI cause

judeboy101

listermint wrote: »

No I'm intrigued by your analysis. It's not unionists gaining here. It's the centre ground. Which is not what you said nor the stats you provided either

You're conflating DUP/uup with unionism. Alliance are pro union but with a silent "u".

CrabRevolution

judeboy101 wrote: »

You're conflating DUP/uup with unionism. Alliance are pro union but with a silent "u".

'nionist?


In any case Alliance can pass as non-aligned as they don't need to express an opinion on Irish reunification. It was Alliance voting with SF+SDLP which helped cause the Belfast flag protests in 2012.

Borderhopper

Great, the trolls are back. Time to bail for a month

dublinman1990

Here's Vincent Kearney's take on the elections in NI.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0505/1047583-northern-ireland-elections/

For those looking at the views of Brexit from all the seats won in NI.

There are a total of 217 seats, a majority of 20, in favour of remain as opposed to 197 seats who want to leave with Brexit in NI.

The 217 seats in favour of Remain in NI are made up of Sinn Fein, SDLP & Alliance.

listermint

downcow wrote: »

I thought I provided very accurate stats but apologies if I made a mistake. Which stats did you think were wrong?
Remember this is a PR election so seats simply tell you who managed their vote best which parties learn from. The key in every election is votes cast for parties.
Whilst I can’t abide the alliance they are still a small u unionist party. So the only people should be disappointed by this election are republicans and nationalists as both votes fell. And this was after them telling us about the amazing impact all the new young voters would make to a UI cause

Again your analysis is waffle.

SF gained nor lost. They're static which is obviously not what the would have wanted.

DUP lost ground to the center party Alliance. So appears the middle ground has won here.

How you conflate that as a loss to Nationalists is beyond me. Not that I care either way I wouldn't count myself as a republican. Just that your spin is blatant.

As I stated already your pulling a Theresa may.

It's pointless and transparent.

An Ciarraioch

dublinman1990 wrote: »

Here's Vincent Kearney's take on the elections in NI.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0505/1047583-northern-ireland-elections/

For those looking at the views of Brexit from all the seats won in NI.

There are a total of 217 seats, a majority of 20, in favour of remain as opposed to 197 seats who want to leave with Brexit in NI.

The 217 seats in favour of Remain in NI are made up of Sinn Fein, SDLP & Alliance.

Don't forget to add the Greens to the Remain tally, also 24 independents who won on local issues, but as many are in nationalist areas, are more likely to be pro-Remain.

An Ciarraioch

downcow wrote: »

Why would you be intrigued that I would not be pleased with :
Middle ground increased
Anyone I know in alliance are soft unionist who would describe themselves as northern Irish and have no interest in a UI
Dup vote up
Sf vote down
Gay dup candidate elected.
What’s is there to not like about any of that especially given the big increase in young electorate.

I have no idea why you are interpreting the election that dup have lost voters to alliance. A wee bit of evidence on that one would be useful?

Lucid Talk have conducted regular surveys on a united Ireland since the Brexit referendum - if the UK leaves without a deal, then most neutral voters, including Alliance, switch away from the status quo:

https://bangordub.wordpress.com/2018/12/10/eu-withdrawal-agreement-and-a-border-poll/

Thargor

Borderhopper wrote: »

Great, the trolls are back. Time to bail for a month

He's supposed to be banned isnt he? Why's he suddenly able to post again? And the first thing out of his mouth is 100% wrongheaded "analysis" that results in a full page worth of other posters having to correct him.

Inquitus

dublinman1990 wrote: »

Here's Vincent Kearney's take on the elections in NI.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0505/1047583-northern-ireland-elections/

For those looking at the views of Brexit from all the seats won in NI.

There are a total of 217 seats, a majority of 20, in favour of remain as opposed to 197 seats who want to leave with Brexit in NI.

The 217 seats in favour of Remain in NI are made up of Sinn Fein, SDLP & Alliance.

There's also a bunch of DUP voters who would rather remain but vote along the usual lines anyways just to ensure their Unionist tendencies are protected.

Capt'n Midnight

BTW just an example of how undemocratic the UK is going
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-48132591

Colour me sceptical,
but how can you have a system verified "end to end"without it facilitating vote selling ?




In other news, May and Labour are still playing the Blame Game, no concessions on either side yet. So don't expect either side to move.


Nigel Farage has refused to reveal the name of the man who has given £100,000 to his new Brexit Party. Again not news.




Maybe
Brexit 'is worth splitting Tories': says Rory Stewart, who was promoted to International Development Secretary last week,

Do you know I wouldn't mind seeing him as PM , but not going to happen is it ?

prinzeugen

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The Tories (who got 28.6% of the vote in Scotland) are refusing the Scottish Parliament another referendum

You do not address the lying at all from Mundell

More voters in Scotland voted for Brexit than the SNP in any election in history.

I am Scottish and the SNP does NOT represent me! The SNP only have 36.9%. Not majority.

They know they are done and are having one last hurrah before the SNP is back in the political wilderness of the 80s!

jochenstacker

prinzeugen wrote: »

More voters in Scotland voted for Brexit than the SNP in any election in history.

I am Scottish and the SNP does NOT represent me! The SNP only have 36.9%. Not majority.

They know they are done and are having one last hurrah before the SNP is back in the political wilderness of the 80s!

Well, SNP holds the most seats, so there's democracy in action for you.

Enzokk

prinzeugen wrote: »

More voters in Scotland voted for Brexit than the SNP in any election in history.

I am Scottish and the SNP does NOT represent me! The SNP only have 36.9%. Not majority.

They know they are done and are having one last hurrah before the SNP is back in the political wilderness of the 80s!

You need to check your statement. More people in Scotland voted for Brexit than for the SNP in any election in history?

"More voters in Scotland voted for Brexit than the SNP in any election in history. "

Have you checked the results of the 2015 General election? The SNP received 1.4m votes in the 2015 UK General Election. They received 977 000 votes in 2017 and the Brexit vote in Scotland was just over 1m votes. In the 2016 Scottish Parliament Elections the SNP received more than 1m votes as well, also more than the Brexit vote.

So you are wrong on two occasions in the past three elections. With Labour not supporting a second vote and the Scottish Conservatives helping to achieve Brexit, your only chance of stopping the SNP is the Libdems.

black forest

A very nice and easy analysis of LE19 in Northern Ireland at Sluggerotoole. The graphics show exactly the different wandering of voters between the parties. There can be no doubt that the center parties were the overall winners feeding from both sides.

https://twitter.com/sluggerotoole/status/1125175840218550272?s=21


All the graphics can be found directly in the article:

https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/05/06/centre-parties-have-captured-a-significant-number-of-seats-from-both-nationalists-and-unionists-at-the-local-elections/

There is a very interesting interactive map as well:

https://public.tableau.com/profile/salmonofdata#!/vizhome/shared/MCW3CG2Q5

judeboy101

black forest wrote: »

A very nice and easy analysis of LE19 in Northern Ireland at Sluggerotoole. The graphics show exactly the different wandering of voters between the parties. There can be no doubt that the center parties were the overall winners feeding from both sides.

https://twitter.com/sluggerotoole/status/1125175840218550272?s=21


All the graphics can be found directly in the article:

https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/05/06/centre-parties-have-captured-a-significant-number-of-seats-from-both-nationalists-and-unionists-at-the-local-elections/

There is a very interesting interactive map as well:

https://public.tableau.com/profile/salmonofdata#!/vizhome/shared/MCW3CG2Q5

Sf/sdlp were warning of this back in the 1980's . A catholic middle class, dependent on public sector jobs would abandon nationalism and move to a soft unionist position. The alliance vote shows this. Money talks in NI.

Enzokk

judeboy101 wrote: »

Sf/sdlp were warning of this back in the 1980's . A catholic middle class, dependent on public sector jobs would abandon nationalism and move to a soft unionist position. The alliance vote shows this. Money talks in NI.

I think the Labour/Conservative press office is missing one of their employees. With the mental gymnastics that has to be done for this to be the outcome of the result is in the realms of losing almost 1500 council seats meaning Brexit is what people want.

No view on the Unionist vote falling? Or are you hedging your bets to the Alliance being a Unionist party and thus it is all the same in your eyes? I think it is more likely that people are not voting along the lines of Unionist or Nationalist, but what is best for them personally. If it is better for the majority to be part of the UK, then that is what will happen. If the opposite is true, then that is what people will vote for. The way it should be.

FrancieBrady

judeboy101 wrote: »

Sf/sdlp were warning of this back in the 1980's . A catholic middle class, dependent on public sector jobs would abandon nationalism and move to a soft unionist position. The alliance vote shows this. Money talks in NI.

What?
The Catholic middle class were voting for the DUP, UUP and the TUV? Who between them lost 28% of their vote and 30 seats? Alliance picked up 21 extra seats.
That's the biggest story of these locals even if the Slugger studiously ignores it.

The SDLP just continue to show how irrelevant they are, even their confused alliance with FF has failed to spark them back to life. They will be devastated that the rebrand/new alliance has again failed at the local level although they had some good news in Derry.

Enzokk

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What?
The Catholic middle class were voting for the DUP, UUP and the TUV? Who between them lost 28% of their vote and 30 seats? Alliance picked up 21 extra seats.
That's the biggest story of these locals even if the Slugger studiously ignores it.

The SDLP just continue to show how irrelevant they are, even their confused alliance with FF has failed to spark them back to life. They will be devastated that the rebrand/new alliance has again failed at the local level although they had some good news in Derry.

I believe he thinks Alliance is a soft Unionist party. That is where the Catholic vote went to, apparently.

Tikki Wang Wang

black forest wrote: »

A very nice and easy analysis of LE19 in Northern Ireland at Sluggerotoole. The graphics show exactly the different wandering of voters between the parties. There can be no doubt that the center parties were the overall winners feeding from both sides.

https://twitter.com/sluggerotoole/status/1125175840218550272?s=21


All the graphics can be found directly in the article:

https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/05/06/centre-parties-have-captured-a-significant-number-of-seats-from-both-nationalists-and-unionists-at-the-local-elections/

There is a very interesting interactive map as well:

https://public.tableau.com/profile/salmonofdata#!/vizhome/shared/MCW3CG2Q5

The % figure would be more meaningful if it looked at vote share rather than seats won.

lawred2

judeboy101 wrote: »

Sf/sdlp were warning of this back in the 1980's . A catholic middle class, dependent on public sector jobs would abandon nationalism and move to a soft unionist position. The alliance vote shows this. Money talks in NI.

For that to make any sense it would have to have been the case that these middle class Catholic/Republicans/nationalists were previously voting for Unionist parties.

Bollocks in other words.

Sam Russell

Tikki Wang Wang wrote: »

The % figure would be more meaningful if it looked at vote share rather than seats won.

Also the percentage should be the percentage of the whole number of seats on offer, not the percentage change for that party. Going from 5 seats to 4 seats is a 20% drop, but it is only one seat. It is 1 seat from 455 seats.

DUP lost 8 seats, and that is shown as 6%, which sounds trivial, but is much more significant. SF lost votes but not seats.

The percentage matters for votes, not seats.

judeboy101

Enzokk wrote: »

I believe he thinks Alliance is a soft Unionist party. That is where the Catholic vote went to, apparently.

They are a soft unionist party, you can be unionist and not be anti gay/abortion/etc. It amazes me how many on this thread think that the alliance are somehow not? They have never advocated a united Ireland but rather the current status of northern Ireland. They have massive issues with the gfa and their leadership going all the way back have ties to British establishment.