Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

LeinsterDub

Seth Brundle wrote: »

According to today's Indo, TM is looking at a Brexit by July 1st before MEPs take their seats (or if they can't meet that target then August 1st before MPs take their holidays)...
https://www.independent.ie/world-news/europe/britain/brexit-theresa-may-targets-july-1-for-uk-exit-but-tories-more-focused-on-resignation-date-38090765.html

She can look all she wants. It's not happening

Seth Brundle

LeinsterDub wrote: »

She can look all she wants. It's not happening

Oh I know but it means that the uncertainty, instability and incompetence will continue!

steddyeddy

New documentary on BB4 highlights the idiocy of arch-brexiters like David Davis. Interviews with senior EU figures suggest that Davis "didn't give a f"£k about the Irish border. The bit in bold is hilarious.

Former Brexit secretary David Davis was mocked and criticised by Brussels figures during torturous EU exit negotiations, with one adviser suggesting he did not “give a f**k” about the Irish border, a new documentary reveals.

The BBC Four behind-the-scenes programme also shows EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier joking that Brexit was like trying to restore an old car, and his European Parliament counterpart Guy Verhofstadt suggesting Britain was unreliable.

The Brexit: Behind Closed Doors documentary was filmed over two years by Belgian filmmaker Lode Desmet, who followed Verhofstadt and his team during meetings with EU and UK figures.

One extraordinary scene shows Verhofstadt and his team discussing Davis’s approach to the Irish border after the pair hold talks over tea in the UK permanent residence in Brussels.

At one point, Verhofstadt’s head of office, Guillaume McLaughlin, discusses the meeting with Davis, who eventually quit as Brexit secretary in July 2018.

He says: “David Davis explained to us that Ireland is not a problem, they have got lots of control systems, they know everybody who is going in and out across the border, they have automatic... and they will take a loss in the excise duties that they are getting but it doesn’t really matter.

“So basically - ’we don’t really give a **** what goes through our border, in any case we know who the baddies are, there might be a problem with terrorism, and if there’s a problem with terrorism that might be a problem, but okay.’”

Verhofstadt then interjects: “They’re going to find them.”

McLaughlin replies: “That was more or less what he said.”

Another aide, Edel Crosse, then adds: “So head in the ****ing clouds.”

FreudianSlippers

The fact that nothing has seemingly happened at all on the UKs side in the past month is not a great sign. The media is complicit in this, as they have completely ignored Brexit since the can was kicked to October.

ancapailldorcha

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

The fact that nothing has seemingly happened at all on the UKs side in the past month is not a great sign. The media is complicit in this, as they have completely ignored Brexit since the can was kicked to October.

They've effectively done precisely what Donald Tusk specifically asked them not to do. Nearly a fifth of the time is already gone. The EU won't be blind to this come September/October when another extension will be requested.

VinLieger

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Oh I know but it means that the uncertainty, instability and incompetence will continue!

Needlessly too as there's plenty of time to work on things properly and logically between now and October 31st instead of trying to rush it, inevitably fecking it up and then being left with less time again to once again start from scratch prior to October

steddyeddy

VinLieger wrote: »

Needlessly too as there's plenty of time to work on things properly and logically between now and October 31st instead of trying to rush it, inevitably fecking it up and then being left with less time again to once again start from scratch prior to October

Unless the main players change then nothing will change. The ERG control the Tory party at the moment.

Leroy42

The media haven't been doing nothing.

They have been giving inordinate attention to Farage, without seemingly actually asking what he stands for.

What will he do to cushion the blow of a hard Brexit? How will he get a FTA if he refuses to negotiate? What is his Day 1 solution to NI border?

Zubeneschamali

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Nearly a fifth of the time is already gone. The EU won't be blind to this come September/October when another extension will be requested.

Agreed, the EU should make the next one much longer, like 2 years, and none of this exit whenever stuff - certainty for 2 years, come back in 2021 with a plan.

steddyeddy

On a slightly unrelated note does anyone remember when the Tory party used to be considered a safe bet in terms of the economy? How the party are acting in relation to Europe is anything other than financially conservative.

reslfj

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Oh I know but it means that the uncertainty, instability and incompetence will continue!

Uncertainty is max when all options seems equally likely. 50-50 in a two way case, 33-33-33 in a three case, etc.

But as time passes without any clear direction many and many companies - UK and non UK - will feel more and more certain of a cliff edge 'No Deal' Brexit and they will take action that is needed to protect themselves but is very unfriendly to the UK economy.

Lars

Zubeneschamali

reslfj wrote: »

But as time passes without any clear direction many and many companies - UK and non UK - will feel more and more certain of a cliff edge 'No Deal' Brexit and they will take action that is needed to protect themselves

I disagree - the more time passes since the Referendum without Brexit happening, the less likely Brexit ever actually happens.

We saw what happened when Westminster saw a deal-or-no-deal deadline coming in March - they punted it to April. When April approached, they punted to October.

In October, they'll punt out to 2021, and before then, the whole thing will be cancelled.

ancapailldorcha

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Agreed, the EU should make the next one much longer, like 2 years, and none of this exit whenever stuff - certainty for 2 years, come back in 2021 with a plan.

I think they wanted a December 2020 extension but Macron was insistent that it be much shorter. Hence, six months.

An Ciarraioch

Common Travel Area formally codified in international law:

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0508/1048127-london-conference/

An Ciarraioch

The Alternative Arrangements Border Commission appears to be largely composed of Legatum Institute associates, such as Shanker Singham, Graham Gudgin, Hans Marsden and Lars Karlsson:

https://www.prosperity-uk.com/aacabout/

Enzokk

Seth Brundle wrote: »

According to today's Indo, TM is looking at a Brexit by July 1st before MEPs take their seats (or if they can't meet that target then August 1st before MPs take their holidays)...
https://www.independent.ie/world-news/europe/britain/brexit-theresa-may-targets-july-1-for-uk-exit-but-tories-more-focused-on-resignation-date-38090765.html

I don't know how she thinks she will get the vote through without a deadline to pressure MPs into voting for her deal. They will not care if the UK elects MEPs to the EU Parliament. She will need to wait for middle October to put it to a vote and try and force MPs to vote for her deal, otherwise I fail to see why anyone who voted against her deal on the last vote has any justification to vote for it now.

Inquitus

Just all been put on the back burner now, no Brexit urgency at all by anyone of the major parties. Evidently time will just be wasted, on an ongoing basis, over the coming months, until the next Cliff edge comes clearly into the view of the large, Brexit Bus, front window. Shocking really.

L1011

I suspect they're waiting to see what the MEP results are, both from their own side in terms of what damage Farage does and also to get a handle on who may be in the leadership positions afterwards.

Sam Russell

What is there to do?

There are the same three options: Crash out, WA, or revoke. The crash out has been ditched, but it is still the default. The WA is unacceptable by every side, which just leaves Revoke. They jut need the political cover to do it. How they do that is the problem, and no-one has any ideas.

steddyeddy

Nigel Farage and Anna Soubry are on Question Time tomorrow night. Should be fun.

Seth Brundle

Sam Russell wrote: »

What is there to do?

There are the same three options: Crash out, WA, or revoke. The crash out has been ditched, but it is still the default. The WA is unacceptable by every side, which just leaves Revoke. They jut need the political cover to do it. How they do that is the problem, and no-one has any ideas.

The crash out has not been ditched. At all!
The Brits said to themselves that it won't happen but have done nothing to actually prevent it because they can't: it is the default exit unless they take action.

steddyeddy

In fairness Sam did say it's the default. A lot of Brexiters fail to understand this. Voting for a crash out not to happen doesn't prevent a crash out.

Seth Brundle

steddyeddy wrote: »

Nigel Farage and Anna Soubry are on Question Time tomorrow night. Should be fun.

Will it be balanced with people from the remain camp or will it just be more un-contested anti-EU lies and Brexit PR?

Tell me how

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Will it be balanced with people from the remain camp or will it just be more un-contested anti-EU lies and Brexit PR?

Anna Soubry is vehemently anti-Brexit and is member of Change party.

Seth Brundle

Tell me how wrote: »

Anna Soubry is vehemently anti-Brexit and is member of Change party.

Thanks. I was mixing her up with Andrea Leadsom

FrancieBrady

Tell me how wrote: »

Anna Soubry is vehemently anti-Brexit and is member of Change party.

She'd chew him up and spit him out in bits ordinarily, but will she be let? Farage will just resort to crowd pleasing gung ho soundbytes.

steddyeddy

The really get the pits of society in Question Time's audience. Leave means leave, I don't care about the Irish ect ect. Any sensible voice is quickly shut down.

Sam Russell

Seth Brundle wrote: »

The crash out has not been ditched. At all!
The Brits said to themselves that it won't happen but have done nothing to actually prevent it because they can't: it is the default exit unless they take action.

Strictly speaking, the British Gov has ditched planning for it and cancelled their ill thought out contracts and other spending. That is not to say it wont happen, but they will be even less prepared than the were in March.

I reckon the revoke is the most likely. When is the question.

Joe_ Public

FrancieBrady wrote: »

She'd chew him up and spit him out in bits ordinarily, but will she be let? Farage will just resort to crowd pleasing gung ho soundbytes.

They had a set to recently on some politics show recently in which Soubry predictably let fly at her target, but i didnt think at the time she came all that well out of it, however reasoned her points were. The QT clapometer will be in overdrive tomorrow night and Farage is the past master at keeping its wheels well greased.

steddyeddy

I look at the Question Time panel and audience and think they're getting away with falsehoods and lies week after week and it annoys me. These people have a completely wrong view of Britain's place on the world stage and they see this as another colonial venture. Annoying as it is there's some reassurance that they'll reap what they sow. It's not going to end well for them as a nation.