Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Thargor

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/11/poll-surge-for-farage-panic-conservatives-and-labour

Finally starting to see some proper damage to the Tories now, something will have to give soon.

Leroy42

Thargor wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/11/poll-surge-for-farage-panic-conservatives-and-labour

Finally starting to see some proper damage to the Tories now, something will have to give soon.

Surely the only reasonable response, given the support for the Brexit Party, is No Deal?

Yes the LibDems etc have seen an increase in support but clearly there is a groundswell of support for Farage and his central tenant of simply getting out.

ballsymchugh

Enzokk wrote: »

That is interesting. Labour's policy of staying on the fence is doing nothing for them and they are not reacting to it. The Leavers are voting for either the Brexit Party or the Tories and the Remainers will most likely move towards the Libdems if they aren't careful. I think Corbyn will eventually move towards a remain position, the question will be whether it will be too late.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1127250825859014656

eventually??!!

the best for britain one on Remainiacs mentions their polls every so ofter. Labour seats in leave areas are safe Labour seats. they shouldn't be worrying about them. it's the remain seats that they will lose.

i think if there is a general election, and Labour are short of a majority, i couldn't see any small party supporting them with Corbyn as leader. He's been absolutely useless in opposition.

after the election in 2010, Gordon Brown offered to step down if it meant that Lib Dem would go into coalition with them but they chose Tory and set this whole mess in motion.

Laois_Man

Enzokk wrote: »

The Lib Dems has already said they would not go into coalition with Labour.

Lib Dems would be prepared to negotiate a coalition with Labour based on Corbyn resigning as leader

As for Farage, it might help keep him LESS popular if Tony Blair didn't appear on TV on such a regular basis to ridicule him. It's playing right into Farage's hands - he's on Sofie Ridge in the morning at it again

https://twitter.com/RidgeOnSunday/status/1126904972837359616

Charles Babbage

Enzokk wrote: »

That is interesting. The Lib Dems has already said they would not go into coalition with Labour. Labour would need a deal with another party but I don't see who it would be. The SNP would demand a second independence referendum and no other party would have enough seats so get them a majority. Still won't sort out Brexit though.

However, Labour would be leading a government with 27% of the vote, while the Lib Dems would have limited influence despite having a vote that is a significant proportion of that. Good old FPTP.

Charles Babbage

Leroy42 wrote: »

Surely the only reasonable response, given the support for the Brexit Party, is No Deal?

Yes the LibDems etc have seen an increase in support but clearly there is a groundswell of support for Farage and his central tenant of simply getting out.

A "groundswell" of 20% and the entire country to be ruined based on one fifth of its population in only one of the 4 components of the UK?

Enzokk

Sam Russell wrote: »

SNP might agree to a rerun on Brexit - WA or Revoke, with a promise of a Scottish Indy Ref 2 within a decade. That would be a good deal for them because an Indy Ref is not a clear win for the SNP yet.

The actual number of seats will be different. SNP getting 55/59 seats in Scotland.

I believe during the Scotland Indy referendum the thought was Labour campaigned for a No vote because they needed those 41 seats they had in Scotland and would find it hard to have a majority again without those Scotland MPs from Labour. The 2015 UK General Election result changed that as their support slumped in Scotland.

Looking at the projected seats, it would seem that actually Labour would not mind the loss of those 59 Scotland MPs as it would tilt the numbers in their favour. Funny how the numbers has reversed from the 2010 results. On reflection Labour may just agree to those terms with the SNP to form a government as the only negative would be that they broke up the UK and the Queen (or King at that stage) may not be happy with them. I doubt your voter in the South would care too much though.

ballsymchugh wrote: »

eventually??!!

the best for britain one on Remainiacs mentions their polls every so ofter. Labour seats in leave areas are safe Labour seats. they shouldn't be worrying about them. it's the remain seats that they will lose.

i think if there is a general election, and Labour are short of a majority, i couldn't see any small party supporting them with Corbyn as leader. He's been absolutely useless in opposition.

after the election in 2010, Gordon Brown offered to step down if it meant that Lib Dem would go into coalition with them but they chose Tory and set this whole mess in motion.

I know, but think of Labour as a ship that takes a while to turn. It will take them a some time to reach that conclusion. You can see that their rabid supporters on Twitter is slowly reaching this conclusion as well. The way someone like Owen Jones moved from Remain to a Leave position after the result because he saw it as the same promised land that some in Labour did was astonishing.

The low point was the sneering at the first People's Vote march in October last year. They laughed at them at the start when the crowds were shown before the start of the march, obviously small, then silence when it became obvious this was a serious protest. The answer was then to decry that protests like these hardly ever work, look at the Iraq march, so there is no use in doing it.

But looking at his tweets there are less and less negative tweets about the EU. This has probably coincided with the realisation that the poll that said that if Labour oversees Brexit they would bleed support. Luckily for them the Tories have blown up and Farage is on the scene to exacerbate their demise and take away votes from them so it could be that they still get to be the biggest party in Parliament. But I think people in Labour is starting to realise, as you post, that they are chasing the wrong vote and could have a huge majority if they had not supported Brexit. As I said, eventually the party will shift. It will just depend if it is with Corbyn as leader or not.

Laois_Man wrote: »

Lib Dems would be prepared to negotiate a coalition with Labour based on Corbyn resigning as leader

I see no reason why Corbyn would even think about resigning, if he is in charge of their largest share of MPs since Blair left.

I think they are probably more scared of a government with Labour succeeding and the same result happening as in 2015, their contribution is overlooked and they lose votes due to that. It could be argued that the reason that the country has lost momentum is because the Tories were allowed to go on their own and the coalition brought a balance that was actually starting to work. But once Cameron didn't need them any longer there was no-one to stop the worst of their policies being enacted and no reason to try and stop the cuts they enacted in the previous parliament.

Instead of a government in relative chaos you would have a well performing country and the recovery of their vote would take longer than the 4 years it has taken them now. Once again politicians would be playing games instead, but that is what they do, I suppose.

bilston

At this stage Brexiteers are going to vote either Brexit Party, UKIP and Tory. Although some Tory votes will come from party loyalists who also would vote remain, to be fair the same can probably be said in reverse for Labour.

The Brexit Party getting 34% of the vote shouldn't be surprising at all. It does sadly mean a No Deal Brexit is all the more likely as for whoever replaces May as Tory leader (she couldn't survive a public vote where her party gets 11% of the vote!) will put party before country.

The EU elections are going to f*** Britain up.

Jim2007

bilston wrote: »

The EU elections are going to f*** Britain up.

All elections are going to do that. The next parliament is going to be more fragmented that the present one, which means more grid lock than ever... not a good thing heading into a no deal situation.

Shelga

I thought Marr did ok with his questioning of Farage, better than I expected. Farage blusters, feigns mock outrage and raises his voice as his standard response to a line of questioning he does not like. It is transparent and pathetic, and people who vote for him are complicit in the downfall of the UK- it’s as simple as that. If they cannot be bothered to educate themselves and get some humility, let them burn.

I do wish Marr had pressed him on what would happen if the UK left on ‘WTO terms’ as that weasel Farage refers to the UK chopping off its own legs, economically. The minute they go to the EU about this wonderful free trade agreement, the EU is going to say, what’s your plan for Northern Ireland? There is no denying this reality!

God I despise Farage and what he has done to his own country.

First Up

Oh just leave them at it. They deserve everything they get. Our focus needs to be on securing our interests and gaining from the UK's mistakes.

Stop talking about the UK's self-inflicted problems and start talking about Ireland's opportunities.

Seth Brundle

https://twitter.com/RidgeOnSunday/status/1127490100051320837?s=19

Joe_ Public

John Prescott did a short piece in one of the sunday papers a couple of weeks back and said the likes of Blair should stay out of it. They had their chance and it was time to leave it to the younger set to get on with it. You might say, well, the younger set seem to be making a hames of it, but i couldnt help agreeing with Prescott. I might agree with some of the things Blair and his former sidekick Campbell are saying, but there's far too much of them in the papers and on the airwaves. I dont think anything they say will help the remain cause in any substantial way.

Patser

Interesting that those polls also seem to show that Change UK is effectively stillborn, they've no momentum and still keep changing logo, name, policy.

Instead it's the Lib Dems who are hoovering up the remain votes. They've grasped the simple message of Bllox to Brexit, remained focused and set themselves as the alternative to all the others.

Surprising that oldie Vince Cable far more adept than youngster Chuka Ummuna at reaching out to young voters

volchitsa

Joe_ Public wrote: »

John Prescott did a short piece in one of the sunday papers a couple of weeks back and said the likes of Blair should stay out of it. They had their chance and it was time to leave it to the younger set to get on with it. You might say, well, the younger set seem to be making a hames of it, but i couldnt help agreeing with Prescott. I might agree with some of the things Blair and his former sidekick Campbell are saying, but there's far too much of them in the papers and on the airwaves. I dont think anything they say will help the remain cause in any substantial way.

I think that's right. It's hard to deny the allegation that the actions of Blair himself when in power helped foster the general atmosphere of disgust for politics and politicians that people like Farage were then able to exploit.

Charles Babbage

volchitsa wrote: »

I think that's right. It's hard to deny the allegation that the actions of Blair himself when in power helped foster the general atmosphere of disgust for politics and politicians that people like Farage were then able to exploit.

Any limitations Blair had is no excuse for voting for much worse.

volchitsa

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Any limitations Blair had is no excuse for voting for much worse.

Sure but the question was whether interventions from Blair were likely to be counterproductive, given his own complete lack of credibility as any sort of honest broker now.

I think the less sermonising we hear from Blair about the harm other politicians and journalists have done, the better.

quokula

Patser wrote: »

Interesting that those polls also seem to show that Change UK is effectively stillborn, they've no momentum and still keep changing logo, name, policy.

Instead it's the Lib Dems who are hoovering up the remain votes. They've grasped the simple message of Bllox to Brexit, remained focused and set themselves as the alternative to all the others.

Surprising that oldie Vince Cable far more adept than youngster Chuka Ummuna at reaching out to young voters

The Lib Dems are a real party with real policies, decision making structures, support networks and experience at all levels of politics.

CHUK is a grouping of Tory MPs who believe wholeheartedly in all of the policies that caused the anger that led to the Brexit vote, and a bunch of Labour MPs who cynically wanted to further the careers after they lost favour within Labour, and decided to use Brexit as an excuse even though some of them were completely against a second referendum previously.

I can’t understand why anyone in their right mind who wanted to vote for an unambiguously remain party wouldn’t choose the Lib Dem’s or the Greens over that group.

Seth Brundle

Has Nigel not taken his meds again? On BBC One’s The Andrew Marr Show, he said that he reckons there will be more negotiations and he wants to be a part of them...

if we can win these elections, absolutely I’m going to demand that Brexit Party MEPs become part of the Government negotiating team and we can perhaps talk some sense into them.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/world/nigel-farage-eyes-seat-at-brexit-negotiation-table-923610.html

Is Garage doing anything differently from the way Trump won the election? From here it looks like a copy paste job to me.

Leroy42

Total CnP. Even his Marr interview today, where basically he simply said that it was totally unacceptable to be asked to actually comment on positions he had previously had.

He was on to talk about one thing, and anything he has done before or said before was irrelevant to what he wanted to talk about now. And his supporters love him for it.

I still don't understand why they simply don't ask him why Brexit has turned out to be the disaster it currently is and then follow up on his answer.

He always stated that TM was a remaniner and surrounded by remaniners and, as they are claiming now, if only he had others like him were involved it would have been great. But the simply next question is that the Tories were in government at the time, exactly who did he think was going to do it? Cameron who had failed in the previous meetings with EU? What exactly did his plan for call for as he had never suggested that Brexit required the democratically elected government to be replaced in order to be successful. (this is all on the basis that there is any credence in the position that it was the people, rather than Brexit itself, that is the problem)

Tell me how

Deleted User wrote: »

Is Garage doing anything differently from the way Trump won the election? From here it looks like a copy paste job to me.

The video of him accusing the BBC of bias today was so similar to Trump it is beyond coincidence. Bannon is the most likely co-oridinator of such performances.

And, like with Trump, it is working.

Blair on Sky News with Sophie Ridge this morning if anything, made more people turn towards Farage.

I think that it is likely that Labour/Conservatives will try to get the current deal over the line as a GE in the current climate would be anarchy for both of them. If they get the deal passed, leave the EU, they might halt Farage's gallop some bit.

An Claidheamh

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Senior Tory MP describes RoI as a "hostage" in negotiations:

http://twitter.com/CrispinBlunt/status/1126886830882938880

Oh dear, yet as long as the Irish government are against supporting Irish unity, they are helping the British government and people like him, because they know Varadkar and Coveney will always back them.


In that sense, this moron will never believe they're in the more unstable position.
Ireland/EU could easily destabilise NI and UK.

Any response from the Irish side?

Yet again, we're all tiptoeing around Brexit snowflakes because they're our "neighbours".

Anyway, the fact that Brexit party is at 20% is incredible, remember there will be silent Brexit party voters aswell, so it will be higher.

I didn't think Brexit would happen after the last fudge, now I'm pretty sure it will.

Water John

You are very single minded and it isn't about Brexit.

quokula

I would take any GE opinion polls with a huge grain of salt. Once an election is called there are manifestos, debates, heavy coverage of policies, and broadcasting rules ensuring fairness of media coverage.

When that happens, it’ll become clear Farage has no policies, and the public will remember they care more about the NHS, housing, austerity, the economy than they do about shouting about Brexit. And that will see a big swing just as it did in 2017, away from single issue parties and back to the main parties and Labour in particular.

Local and Euro elections have always been the home of protest votes in the UK.

Capt'n Midnight

Leroy42 wrote: »

Total CnP. Even his Marr interview today, where basically he simply said that it was totally unacceptable to be asked to actually comment on positions he had previously had.)

What was the QT time bit about "new party so won't have manifesto on other stuff till after the election" when asked about doctor numbers or some such.

Complete cop out and wasn't called on it.


Nigel you've been in politics long enough to loose 8 elections since 1994 and you've even been beaten by a bloke in a dolphin suit, so you should have some policies by now, a quarter of a century later.

A complete Me Feiner.

Has been on QT 34 times, but Have I Got News For You was pulled for "balance". :rolleyes:

S.M.B.

Said on Marr that there will never be a party manifesto as manifesto has become a tarnished word.

ancapailldorcha

You're making a joke of it, Capt'n but Farage is just doing what authoritarians do - peddling simple solutions while pushing his own agenda not to mention profiting handsomely in the process:

https://twitter.com/ianbirrell/status/1127113096173117440?s=19

If Farage thought a manifesto would enhance his electability, we would have one. Instead, he's asking for carte blanche to wield electoral power as he sees fit. This is not something which ends well for democracies when their electorates choose this path.

Tell me how

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

What was the QT time bit about "new party so won't have manifesto on other stuff till after the election" when asked about doctor numbers or some such.

Complete cop out and wasn't called on it.


Nigel you've been in politics long enough to loose 8 elections since 1994 and you've even been beaten by a bloke in a dolphin suit, so you should have some policies by now, a quarter of a century later.

A complete Me Feiner.

Has been on QT 34 times, but Have I Got News For You was pulled for "balance". :rolleyes:

This is the reality, but, it is also working for him. The Simpsons did it years ago with Homer running for Sanitation Commissioner and we all laughed, but, look at the two of the most significant political events in most of our lives so far, (Trump and Brexit) and it is happening in real life.

I don't understand why so many people allow themselves to think that such a candidate is worth voting for. Is it that many people are they themselves Me Feiner's and just want someone who makes no bones about that?

jochenstacker

Tell me how wrote: »

This is the reality, but, it is also working for him. The Simpsons did it years ago with Homer running for Sanitation Commissioner and we all laughed, but, look at the two of the most significant political events in most of our lives so far, (Trump and Brexit) and it is happening in real life.

I don't understand why so many people allow themselves to think that such a candidate is worth voting for. Is it that many people are they themselves Me Feiner's and just want someone who makes no bones about that?

They either have a sub 50 IQ and can't see what these things really are about or they are marginally more intelligent than a houseplant and vote this way because of some sick desire to see the world burn whilst slapping themselves on the shoulder how edgy and clever they are.
So, pure, unbridled stupidity or barefaced trolling.
There are no other reasons to vote Trump, Brexit (or any number of right wing xxxxheads found in Europe).
Well, people believe the earth is flat, so truth and facts are irrelevant, you just dangle something shiny for them to latch onto and watch them go loola over some of the biggest bullsh*t the planet has ever seen.
Politics has irrevocably been damaged by liars, grifters and flimflam artists like Mr Trump or Farage and voters are so brainwashed by trash media that they can't tell the difference anymore between reality TV and politics.
They thinks it's a great laugh. It'll get much worse before it gets better, because you can't beat the fraudster with truth and facts anymore, so you have to sink to their level and just fire off industrial grade bullsh*t and hope someone will fall for it.

So sadly any future candidate will have to hire Russian troll factories, flood the internet with lies and propaganda, get dirt on their opponents by either getting it through dodgy channels or just flat out making it up and just hide behind a vast cloud of glitter and noise and hope their lies are better, louder and more extremist than the other guys.
When debating, just shout accusations and propaganda and, most importantly, repeat, repeat, repeat.
If you just manage to portray that you are deadly serious and are the only hope for the future, you can get anywhere in life with this formula. Guaranteed.