Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Field east

Peregrinus wrote: »

Well, I don't know about insane, but it's certainly hypocritical, given that a large part of the case for Brexit is an objection to other countries having any kind of control or influence over UK affairs. But now they call on foreign powers to frustrate the will of the UK parliament and government.

But, whether insane or hypocrtical, I think it's going to be counterproductive. No EU government, however eurosceptic itself, is going to want to be seen to be doing the bidding of the fringes of the UK's domestic opposition. Those governments each have a responsibility to act in the best interests of their countries, and they are accountable to their voters. They might or might not be receptive to a little behind-the-scenes lobbying from UK eurosceptics, but once the pressure is public it become more difficult, not less difficult, to comply.

This isn't the first time it's been tried. In January noted bonehead Daniel Kawczynski MP wrote to the Polish government (he himself is Polish, so he feels an affinity, plus the Polish government is fairly right-wing) asking them to block any extension of A50 that the UK might ask for. He was not, as the saying goes, favoured with a reply to his letter, but a couple of days later a Polish government spokesman was quoted as saying that a no-deal Brexit would be the worst possible scenario for Poland, and any request for an extension that might avert it would likely be favourably evaluated.

The official British Gov position is that the people have spoken re via the referendum result so it would be undemocratic to ask them again about leaving or not - so there will be no second referendum as far as the gov is concerned EVEN THOUGH THE REFERENDUM WAS SOLD TO THE VOTERS ON THE BASIS OF SOME SERIOUS FINANCIAL FALSEHOODS.

BUT, BUT, BUT Theresa May has absolutely no problem in going back to the MPs for a third time to basically pass her same plan that they have already rejected with a very big majority. These MPs represent the voters so why does she go back to one and not the other.?

bilston

Field east wrote: »

The official British Gov position is that the people have spoken re via the referendum result so it would be undemocratic to ask them again about leaving or not - so there will be no second referendum as far as the gov is concerned EVEN THOUGH THE REFERENDUM WAS SOLD TO THE VOTERS ON THE BASIS OF SOME SERIOUS FINANCIAL FALSEHOODS.

BUT, BUT, BUT Theresa May has absolutely no problem in going back to the MPs for a third time to basically pass her same plan that they have already rejected with a very big majority. These MPs represent the voters so why does she go back to one and not the other.?

Yeah I'm surprised more hasn't been made of the hypocrisy of May going back to Parliament a second and now a third time.

Her defeats weren't even narrow!

Enzokk

I see there are a few whispers that May will actually be able to get her deal through in a next vote. That will take some turnaround from MPs that have been very much against her deal twice before. If she does get the deal through it means it will be a contentious deal to say the least. I don't see how that will solve anything for the UK Parliament.

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1106077769815998464

So if they pass her deal but she resigns in the summer, that means a new PM will have a slim majority and will have a deal that the DUP is not happy with, who they need to make the government run, and they will have the deal that no-one is happy with as it is not their negotiated deal. May, in her quest to get her deal through, is probably making more problems than she can envisage right now as she is so focused on her deal and her legacy.

ted1

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

You know what would be more unpopular? Irish farming industry destroyed due to UK importing questionable food from Americas

I've said it before it be our own farmers blocking the border once they realise that their industry is about to be contaminated and destroyed

Would it do much harm if we produced less beef. It’s one of our biggest polluters. So rather than bail outs for farmers could they retrain or move into bio crop production?

bilston

The ERG might vote for her deal now, but maybe Tory Remainers will do a 180...the chances of a second referendum if the WA isn't passed are significant, if not inevitable. I can't see the EU agreeing to a long extension (Dec 2020) for any other reason.

The other possibility is the UK govt embraces a customs Union which is a far less worse option than the WA.

There are plenty of reasons why Remainers will decide to oppose MV3

milhous

ted1 wrote: »

Would it do much harm if we produced less beef. It’s one of our biggest polluters. So rather than bail outs for farmers could they retrain or move into bio crop production?

Irish beef is great. Cows have a much happier life here too than most countries. I don't think I'd like to see Irish beef become a thing of the past.

New day, same old craziness. Are all the fresh manoeuvrings trying to create a new way for the UK to get rid of the backstop unilaterally? EU will be throwing its eyes to heaven.

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1106108616745062400

prawnsambo

Deleted User wrote: »

New day, same old craziness. Are all the fresh manoeuvrings trying to create a new way for the UK to get rid of the backstop unilaterally? EU will be throwing its eyes to heaven.

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1106108616745062400

It's like the Emperor's new clothes, except the kid is now asking for special spectacles that will allow him to see what everybody else says they can see.

Anteayer

I just don't see this being resolved. There's no centre emegring and they continue to negotiate with themselves, barely referencing the EU.

It's sums up how a large chunk of the UK sees the EU - they view it with contempt. Even those who are calling for "no no deal" are often shouting into an echo chamber of unilateralism.

The EU has no idea what they want. They don't know what they want themselves. It's absolute nonsense.

I still think we're looking at the brawl rolling on until the time runs out, followed by a crash out and economic chaos.

The ultimate new relationship, which will probably be something like associate membership in reality, won't be delivered by this government or even by this batch of MPs. I would suspect you're looking at a significant economic crisis triggering a major UK political crisis and it will only be when all of that has stabilised that you will see a real solution.

There is no way they can crash out.. They will withdraw Article 50 at the very last minute.

Anteayer

[Deleted User] wrote: »

There is no way they can crash out.. They will withdraw Article 50 at the very last minute.

Why not just crash out?

The majority of the leavers just don't see that as being a huge risk and feel that the UK is big enough to weather the storm.

They basically see it as "straight forward and successful".

I'm not saying that I agree with this, but I don't think most of them see it as something to panic about. The perception in Ireland is completely different.

They really don't care about things like the NI border because they see it as foreign, or they see Ireland as not a real country and just being awkward.

They don't think they'll have any logistical problems because they just believe they're able to overcome all of this stuff.

The sense of urgency that we all have simply doesn't exist over there amongst at least 50% of the population. Even some softer remainers are pretty passive about it.

VinLieger

Deleted User wrote: »

There is no way they can crash out.. They will withdraw Article 50 at the very last minute.

But what kind of chaos will that cause? Also theres already been some pretty serious lasting damage done as far as the UK being seen as a stable investment for businesses which revoking article 50 cannot magically fix

Peregrinus

Deleted User wrote: »

There is no way they can crash out.. They will withdraw Article 50 at the very last minute.

They won't choose to crash out, but it is well within their grasp to achieve a crash-out through stupidity and incompetence.

Peregrinus

VinLieger wrote: »

But what kind of chaos will that cause? Also theres already been some pretty serious lasting damage done as far as the UK being seen as a stable investment for businesses which revoking article 50 cannot magically fix

Yes, but crashing out won't magically fix it either. That's what we call a sunk cost.

prawnsambo

Not sure if anyone heard Eddie Mair dismantling Liz Truss last night, but this is one sample

Anteayer

Peregrinus wrote: »

Yes, but crashing out won't magically fix it either. That's what we call a sunk cost.

At this stage you're looking at the best option being simple damage limitation. There's no possibility of undoing the reputational damage for about a decade or so.

Peregrinus

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1106115929539334144
This is diplo-speak for "If HMG wants an extension of more than 8 weeks or so, they need to persuade us that they are going to come up with a new Brexit strategy and secure domestic cross-party consensus for it".

Which in turns means "Brexiters, you can have a Brexit on the terms of May's deal now or a much softer Brexit later."

Seth Brundle

Deleted User wrote: »

There is no way they can crash out.. They will withdraw Article 50 at the very last minute.

I presume that it depends on whatever they vote for.
If May goes against the parliamentary vote then IIRC the government can be held in contempt of parliament.

Infini

[Deleted User] wrote: »

There is no way they can crash out.. They will withdraw Article 50 at the very last minute.

Many think they wont but right now only an A50 withdrawal by parliment will end this but it can only happen if the choice is given to them. If they go on bìtching between thmnselves they crash out by default wether they like it or not.They've 2 weeks to bite the bullet and time is wasting. The EU honestly needs to refuse them an extention simply because they wont decide and removing it will force parliment to decide one and for all rather than continue this pantomime.

20silkcut

ted1 wrote: »

Would it do much harm if we produced less beef. It’s one of our biggest polluters. So rather than bail outs for farmers could they retrain or move into bio crop production?

We can feed 40 million people from our little island.
And we don’t have to clear rainforests or inject growth hormones into our beasts to achieve that.
We are good at it. Nobody does it cleaner.
Your proposal makes no sense.
Diverts from the topic anyway.

BonnieSituation

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

I have been using it to great effect with the kids, re: homework, shower time, bedtime.. completed homework, do the noes have it or the ayes?!

Bellowing bercow is a welcome addition to family life. Bet your cattle BERCOWS are loving it.

Fixed your post.

---

I'm just on the way to work and reading over the news there and I honestly cannot believe that we have to go through more shenanigans tonight.

It's exhausting.

A few people responded to my post about them withdrawing Article 50.

It would be chaos, sure, but the HoC in my opinion would choose political chaos over economic chaos. Yes, they can crash out by mistake, but realistically, either in a couple of weeks, or at the end of whatever extension period they get, revoking it will still only be the only option that has any majority consensus, and for that reason, I think it will happen.


My political knowledge isn't as great as others on here, so this isn't a prompt requiring replies, or debate really. It's just a gut feeling I have.

Seth Brundle

Mark Francois is put under pressure...

https://twitter.com/crowiejnr/status/1106108103551000578

Tropheus

I''ve been working in Newcastle for a couple of days a week for the past few months.

What amazes me is how the vast majority of people in the UK are completely disengaged from this. There is absolutely no disucsion here in the office. If this was happening in the Dail, it would be the main topic of conversation in workplaces across the country.

People just seem sick of it. Any mention of Brexit in a social setting gets a glazed look and a quick change of subject. People are sick of it and largely don't seem to get the complexities or want to try and understand them. Yes, it's reproted in the media and the infomration is there if people want it, but they largely don't have any interest and seem to feel it will sort itself out without any impact on them.

I was on a conference call with a few UK colleagues yesterday morning. In the lull before it started, I said "I see Brexit is doing well". One of them replied, "is it, that's good". I theny said "going well, not". They then replied "oh, ok".

There is something very broken here in the UK and it's not going to be sorted quickly. I can see this division going on for a generation at least.

lawred2

prawnsambo wrote: »

Not sure if anyone heard Eddie Mair dismantling Liz Truss last night, but this is one sample

And she's a cabinet minister...

What is that old wisdom about weak leaders surrounding themselves with lessers!? Because she's pathetic.

VinLieger

Peregrinus wrote: »

Yes, but crashing out won't magically fix it either. That's what we call a sunk cost.

I agree but the problem you have with revoking article 50 is it will only harden leavers opinions especially so when all the stuff that's broken doesn't magically fix itself, you and i know why that's not possible but their broken brains will simply refuse to accept that logic.



The older demographic that voted for leave are dying off and younger people are more heavily pro remain but that still doesn't mean its not possible we could be back here in 5 years time if the UK media stays in its same broken state and manages to brainwash more people into believing the EU is the cause of all their problems.


Basically is there any point to them staying at this stage?

steddyeddy

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

BBC love bringing on extremist commentators with no grasp of the details. Lionel Shriver on Newsnight now. Ruth Dudley Edwards on BBC Talkback earlier. Fury over facts. Ratings over reason.

The BBC seems obsessed with balance yet brings on loons like Julia-Hartley Brewer and Ruth Dudley Edwards. I also think the BBC puts balance over facts. For example on Question Time they give equal airing to people who say that Brexit will be fantastic and who have zero idea about international trade and equal time to people who work for the Bank Of England who're educated about trade and economics. Not all opinions are equal and treating them the same gives more validity to some of the more lunatic Brexit views.

Headshot

May should really give parliament 2 options back her deal or she'll put it to a peoples vote, remain or her deal

ERG will vote for deal in droves

Enzokk

prawnsambo wrote: »

Not sure if anyone heard Eddie Mair dismantling Liz Truss last night, but this is one sample

This is painful to listen to. She is so out of touch. Everything is Labour's fault from 2008 but the current growth is due to a global slowdown. Just spouting Tory talking points and being flustered when she has to talk about her personal circumstances. She is also allowed to change her mind but people aren't allowed to change theirs.

This is the problem I think, May has surrounded herself with a bunch of yes men and woman and their talent and ability is severely lacking.

MrMusician18

Tropheus wrote: »

I''ve been working in Newcastle for a couple of days a week for the past few months.

What amazes me is how the vast majority of people in the UK are completely disengaged from this. There is absolutely no disucsion here in the office. If this was happening in the Dail, it would be the main topic of conversation in workplaces across the country.

People just seem sick of it. Any mention of Brexit in a social setting gets a glazed look and a quick change of subject. People are sick of it and largely don't seem to get the complexities or want to try and understand them. Yes, it's reproted in the media and the infomration is there if people want it, but they largely don't have any interest and seem to feel it will sort itself out without any impact on them.

I was on a conference call with a few UK colleagues yesterday morning. In the lull before it started, I said "I see Brexit is doing well". One of them replied, "is it, that's good". I theny said "going well, not". They then replied "oh, ok".

There is something very broken here in the UK and it's not going to be sorted quickly. I can see this division going on for a generation at least.

People won't talk openly about something that is so divisive. What is to be gained by arguing with a remain voting colleague?

During a similar period of tumult in Irish politics, the bailout, it was barely talked about in the office.

I agree though, the UK political system is broken, but that's largely due to the way they elect their politicians.