Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Joe_ Public

Headshot wrote: »

Newsnight on BBC2 now, it should be interesting

Owen Patterson’s contribution there was something. PM can now go to Brussels and eyeball them again, maximum leverage back on the table again. You could see the delight in his eyes that no deal was firmly in the mix again!

Kermit.de.frog

Big hate campaign against Bercow in the British press tomorrow. The Sun and Telegraph leading the way.

Spanish Eyes

I could be totally wrong, but I think Bercow has actually led the way for No Deal. The only other alernatiive is extension but for what reason. Or indeed revocationof A50.

What a shambles. The UK government are an absolute embarrassment. But they refuse to see this really.

Water John

No Deal is off the table. As the Con guy on Newsnight said, TMs Deal is the Hardest Brexit you can get.
The Govn't seem to be floating the idea that getting the DUP on board is a fundamental change, and should change Bercow's opinion.

The face on Leadsom today after Bercow's ruling was priceless. She hates his guts.

Infini

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I could be totally wrong, but I think Bercow has actually led the way for No Deal. The only other alernatiive is extension but for what reason. Or indeed revocationof A50.

What a shambles. The UK government are an absolute embarrassment. But they refuse to see this really.

What he's done is put an end to Mays pantomime of regurgitating the same deal over and over till the house passes it. Now she has to decide wether to act on her earlier threat of no brexit either through somehow getting the EU to agree to an extention (which likely is not going to happen without a credible reason ie. 2nd referendum) or basically admit defeat and move to rescind A50 and abandon Brexit.

Some might think the EU should agree to an extention but I honestly believe the only answer to this was to have the HoC and the conservatives basically face the consequences of THEIR stupidity and decide: Either go and stop wasting all our time and accept the consequences as a result of your actions or end this farce, Cancel Brexit, stop blaming the EU for the failures and inadequecies of your state and get your damn house in order as its tiresome and old.

farmerval

Will a no deal be adisaster for the DUP? In today's guaedian the Ulter Farnmers Union leader was emphatic about how bad it would be for farmers in the North, are they not some of the DUP's core supporters. He says very pointedly at the end that his focus is on getting a deal through and that he hopes others can say the same.
Methinks the DUP will be clambouring to find a way out of their current impasse. While they were sure another vote was going to be held then they could play hard balll all day long, up to today there was even talk of Theresa May coming back a fourth time with her deal.

John Bercow's intervention means the whites in everyone's eyes may be showing, there's really going to be no hiding place now.

Infini

The DUP have been the big idiots in all of this because they've done nothing but sell out everyone in NI for their blighted narrowminded ideological BS. Sammy Shìtstirrers "send em to the chippy" sums up their entire attitude to their responsibilities.

If I were a farmer or buisnessman up there Id be looking at making sure the DUP were thrown out next election for their contempt or even looking at reunification as an option medium to long term if things go south. The irony wont be lost on many that our government actually showed more concern for them than the DUP!

tuxy

Infini wrote: »

If I were a farmer or buisnessman up there Id be looking at making sure the DUP were thrown out next election for their contempt or even looking at reunification as an option medium to long term if things go south. The irony wont be lost on many that our government actually showed more concern for them than the DUP!

There are many that will not rise Sinn Fein getting a seat in their area no matter the consequences.

briany

farmerval wrote: »

Will a no deal be adisaster for the DUP? In today's guaedian the Ulter Farnmers Union leader was emphatic about how bad it would be for farmers in the North, are they not some of the DUP's core supporters. He says very pointedly at the end that his focus is on getting a deal through and that he hopes others can say the same.
Methinks the DUP will be clambouring to find a way out of their current impasse. While they were sure another vote was going to be held then they could play hard balll all day long, up to today there was even talk of Theresa May coming back a fourth time with her deal.

John Bercow's intervention means the whites in everyone's eyes may be showing, there's really going to be no hiding place now.

I don't know who else Ulster Unionist farmers have to vote for. It's quite the dilemma, really. I understand there are other unionist parties, but do they offer anything different or better? And what will it matter after Brexit occurs and the damage is irreversible.

Joe_ Public

Water John wrote: »

No Deal is off the table. As the Con guy on Newsnight said, TMs Deal is the Hardest Brexit you can get.
The Govn't seem to be floating the idea that getting the DUP on board is a fundamental change, and should change Bercow's opinion.

The face on Leadsom today after Bercow's ruling was priceless. She hates his guts.

The two other tories on newsnight seemed to be of the alternative view, that no deal was still very much in the picture. I suppose they could well be wrong.

I must seek that out to see that look on her face. Leadsom is a....person.

Panrich

briany wrote: »

I don't know who else Ulster Unionist farmers have to vote for. It's quite the dilemma, really. I understand there are other unionist parties, but do they offer anything different or better? And what will it matter after Brexit occurs and the damage is irreversible.

Thee might be a revival in support for the official unionist party and maybe Alliance will catch a few stray votes too.

FrancieBrady

briany wrote: »

I don't know who else Ulster Unionist farmers have to vote for. It's quite the dilemma, really. I understand there are other unionist parties, but do they offer anything different or better? And what will it matter after Brexit occurs and the damage is irreversible.

They don't have to vote SF, they have the much more pragmatic UUP to vote for or lend their vote to.

tuxy

No deal is still the default option by inaction from parliament.
I'm not saying I think it will happen, just that it's what will happen if no meaningful action is taken.

Laois_Man

Infini wrote: »

The irony wont be lost on many that our government actually showed more concern for them than the DUP!

Is that anything new?

Top story in Irish media all day today....3 die tragically in Northern Ireland. Top story on Sky News and BBC, 3 die tragically in Holland....N. Ireland incident is 6th on Sky and not even visible at all on BBC mobile.

The point is, they’ve always been more important to us than to them!

tuxy

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They don't have to vote SF, they have the much more pragmatic UUP to vote for or lend their vote to.

In some areas splitting DUP and UUP votes means SF get the seat.

FrancieBrady

tuxy wrote: »

In some areas splitting DUP and UUP votes means SF get the seat.

Would that be worse than a hard Brexit? Lending somebody else the seat for a term to send a message?

tuxy

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Would that be worse than a hard Brexit? Lending somebody else the seat for a term to send a message?

Nothing is worse than Catholics gaining ground in the eyes of the Unionists. There is nothing logical about the politics in Northern Ireland.

Itssoeasy

Water John wrote: »

No Deal is off the table. As the Con guy on Newsnight said, TMs Deal is the Hardest Brexit you can get.
The Govn't seem to be floating the idea that getting the DUP on board is a fundamental change, and should change Bercow's opinion.

The face on Leadsom today after Bercow's ruling was priceless. She hates his guts.

No deal is not off the table. The vote in the commons last week was non binding. It simply showed that the House of Commons don't want a no deal brexit, a no deal is the default position as it stand unless the WA passes(which given what happened today is unlikely) or article 50 is extened. If neither of those two options happen than in eleven days time the UK will leave the EU without a deal.

briany

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They don't have to vote SF, they have the much more pragmatic UUP to vote for or lend their vote to.

They could vote for the UUP but the damage will have already been done. Not to mention that the UUP are more moderate, as are Alliance. Unionist would be concerned that a vote for the UUP or Alliance would lead to further erosion (as they see it) of Unionist rights in NI.

trellheim

Link to Bercow's statement https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2019-03-18/debates/AB031E78-C906-4833-9ACF-291998FAC0E1/Speaker%E2%80%99SStatement

Many pages of guff underneath. Andrea Leadsom's contribution shines as being utterly useless.

Itssoeasy

tuxy wrote: »

Nothing is worse than Catholics gaining ground in the eyes of the Unionists. There is nothing logical about the politics in Northern Ireland.

And what I find almost tragic is that the unionists and in particular the DUP seem to believe to the very core of their being that come what may, the rest of UK will never abandon them they are an indispensable part of the union. The reality is very different as it seems the rest of the UK don't feel the same way.

FrancieBrady

briany wrote: »

They could vote for the UUP but the damage will have already been done. Not to mention that the UUP are more moderate, as are Alliance. Unionist would be concerned that a vote for the UUP or Alliance would lead to further erosion (as they see it) of Unionist rights in NI.

They have all the rights they require. It is rights of others they are blocking.

If they are not prepared to punish the DUP then they can hardly complain when the DUP do what they want regardless of the pain it inflicts on them and everyone else.

RickBlaine

Here are tomorrow's front pages from the UK newspapers. As expected, some newspapers are attacking Barlow with many using a picture of him smiling and smirking, most likely completely out of context. https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs/the_papers

marno21

Going by tomorrow's front pages John Bercow will need 24 hour armed security to tail him for the next while. Unashamedly pathetic rhetoric everywhere.

"17.4m vs one". No mention of all the other charlatans in the HoC who have been so precise when it comes to delivering the holy Brexit that will save the UK from those evil European tyrants.

dublinman1990

It looks like that the UK will get an eventual extension on the deal along with a new date for Brexit.

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1107722959475613698

Peregrinus

I'm not sure the view of "EU officials" on whether this or that development would amount to a sufficient change to allow another Commons vote are all that relevant. Bercow decides whether a new motion is "substantially the same" as one that has already been voted on. I would have thoght that EU officials are not particularly close to Bercow's thinking, or particularly expert in UK parliamentary procedure so as to predict what Bercow will think.

Ultimately Theresa May has to decide whether whatever the EU offers is enough to allow her to table a third meaningful vote. She will not want to risk the humiliation of tabling it only to have the Speaker rule it out of order, so she needs to make a call on what would or wouldn't be ruled out of order. She'g be very foolish to defer to the opinions of unnamed EU officials on that question.

Zubeneschamali

Peregrinus wrote: »

Bercow decides whether a new motion is "substantially the same" as one that has already been voted on. I would have thoght that EU officials are not particularly close to Bercow's thinking, or particularly expert in UK parliamentary procedure so as to predict what Bercow will think.

Bercow dropped a strong hint that it would take something legal from Brussels to allow another vote, this is just the EU taking that hint.

Peregrinus wrote: »

She will not want to risk the humiliation of tabling it only to have the Speaker rule it out of order

If May cared about humiliation, she'd have resigned long ago.

Peregrinus

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Bercow dropped a strong hint that it would take something legal from Brussels to allow another vote, this is just the EU taking that hint.

If so, I'm not convinced they've taken the hint correctly.

The key point here is that Parliament has already considered May's deal (in which term I include the WA, the Pol Dec, the various associated interpretive statements, etc). If May wants to put it to Parliament again, it has to differ in some substantial way.

As far as I can see, a deferred Brexit date is not a substantial difference to the deal itself; it remains exactly the same deal, on exactly the same terms, requiring exactly the same legislation to give effect to it, etc, etc. (My proposal to buy your car for a certain price does not become a substantially different proposal merely because I propose to complete the purchase on Saturday, rather than tomorrow.) And a delay is not really a new feature; it was known last week that even if the deal had been approved them an A50 delay was going to be needed in order to implement it.

And I should say that if Bercow is dropping hints to anybody, it is certainly not to the EU. It is to HMG.

My take on this is that:

- It's HMG which believes (or hopes, at any rate) that the grant of an A50 extension would make May's deal substantially different from what it is today;
- British officials have said as much to EU officials as part of their case for "why the EU should grant us an A50 extension";
- The EU officials are inclined to accept the UK view at face value becuse, after all, UK officials are much better positioned to know how UK parliamentary rules and conventions work in practice than EU officials are;
- UK journalists have heard about this from EU officials rather than from UK officials because the processes of the "secretive, bureaucratic, undemocratic" EU are in fact much more open than the processes of HMG. (Most of what the Uk press hears about the Brexit process comes from the EU side.)
- UK journalists are therefore attributing this view to the Brussels sources from whom they got it, although in fact the Brussels sources have likely got it from UK officials.

Is the view correct? As already indicated, I'm sceptical. I think there may be a bit of wishful thinking going on on the UK side. But also as noted above HMG is better placed to know what will and won't fly not only than EU officials are but also than I am. So it could be correct.

robinph

Laois_Man wrote: »

Is that anything new?

Top story in Irish media all day today....3 die tragically in Northern Ireland. Top story on Sky News and BBC, 3 die tragically in Holland....N. Ireland incident is 6th on Sky and not even visible at all on BBC mobile.

The point is, they’ve always been more important to us than to them!

Not really surprising. One was an ongoing potential terrorist manhunt so will pretty much trump any other story of the day for coverage. Before 11am the NI story was getting the top story headlines.

Anteayer

I'd assume if they get an extension it will be two years or so and this will just drag on and on and on until it eventually fizzles out.

How many tens of billions has this cost people though? Loads of companies and individuals have made massive decisions based on this chaos.

I can't see the UK recovering its reputation for a long time.