Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Peregrinus

c_murph wrote: »

It is if Brexit has still not been delivered. Farage won’t just disappear, he’ll be campaigning that the only way to deliver Brexit is to vote for the Brexit Party.

Of course in anything approaching more normal circumstances I’d agree with you. But they’re a one issue party, and if there’s an election before the end of October, it’ll be the only issue on the campaign trail.

Nevertheless, the same polls which are saying that the Brexit Party will get 30% or 35% in the EP elections are also saying that it would get 12%, 13% in a General Election. That's the same pollsters asking the same people the two questions in one interview - Who will you vote for in the EP election? Who would you vote for in a general election? Success in the EP elections has never translated into success in a general election, and all the signs are that that's not about to change.

If the polls are correct, the Brexit Party is going to do better, but perhaps not dramatically better, in 2019 than UKIP did in 2014. Labour and the Tories will do much worse than in 2014; the Liberal Democrats and the Greens will do much better.

robinph

Ouch, fair play to just about holding it together.




All her talk about compromise though would have been useful if she'd taken that into account earlier.

Laois_Man

boggerman1 wrote: »

Ah she got teary at the end.boo hoo

This crap at the end about serving the country she loves - I think he main problem was the fact that her main priority was serving the party she loves first and foremost!

LeinsterDub

robinph wrote: »

Ouch, fair play to just about holding it together.




All her talk about compromise though would have been useful if she'd taken that into account earlier.

Speaking with her forked tongue right up to the end.

Akrasia

Peregrinus wrote: »

Nevertheless, the same polls which are saying that the Brexit Party will get 30% or 35% in the EP elections are also saying that it would get 12%, 13% in a General Election. That's the same pollsters asking the same people the two questions in one interview - Who will you vote for in the EP election? Who would you vote for in a general election? Success in the EP elections has never translated into success in a general election, and all the signs are that that's not about to change.

If the polls are correct, the Brexit Party is going to do better, but perhaps not dramatically better, in 2019 than UKIP did in 2014. Labour and the Tories will do much worse than in 2014; the Liberal Democrats and the Greens will do much better.

The EUPARL elections are a proxy for the 2nd referendum

Brexit party represents 'no deal'
Tories represent 'May's deal'
Lib Dems and Greens, SNP, and Change UK (or whatever they're called today) represent remain, and Labour represent the wild card where no lessons can really be taken from their support.

The Brexit Party will get all the headlines, but the true 'will of the people' will be revealed by adding up the combined totals of the parties on both sides of the various fences

MrMusician18

boggerman1 wrote: »

Ah she got teary at the end.boo hoo

In some respects, and on a human level, the way it's all crumbled around her in the end and the way the b*stards did in for her you would feel sorry for her. Treachery seems to be in the veins of Tories.

But then she did feed them and ultimately was the architect of her own demise, starting in Lancaster House with her unnecessary red lines.

Nody

Akrasia wrote: »

Bye bye Theresa. You were the worst PM in modern history, until the next one.

Well she did pick up her legacies at least; most heavily down voted proposal in parliament and lost most ministers & secretaries during her term. She wanted to be the second coming of the Iron Lady but only managed to pick up the iron part in her lack of connecting with people.

Personally I'm hoping for Boris or another clear Brexiteer in charge so that when they crash out (after a few years of blaming it all on EU) they can start to look back at the lies. If it's someone who's moderate chances are the Brexit fringe will use that as the excuse for the failure (being to moderate in the discussions) and hence the wish for a clear Brexiteer approach to it all. Yes it will hurt, yes it sucks that the asylum will be in the leadership position but like the coal mines during Thatcher it's time for UK and it's population to come to grips with how reality is today and stop dreaming of the 1960s and earlier.

robinph wrote: »

All her talk about compromise though would have been useful if she'd taken that into account earlier.

Her idea of compromise during the Labour talks was to extol the great virtues of her deal rather than possibly consider changing things; she loves to talk about compromise but when it comes to actually compromise she's using the Soviet union approach "What's ours is ours; everything else is up for negotiation".

FreudianSlippers

Sorry I can't deal with listening to these muppets on the BBC talking about how she should have left with no deal. I hope the UK leaves with no deal now and I hope they get blasted economically into the 18th century because of it. They clearly have no place on the world stage if they can't keep their domestic affairs in order.

Leroy42

MrMusician18 wrote: »

In some respects, and on a human level, the way it's all crumbled around her in the end and the way the b*stards did in for her you would feel sorry for her. Treachery seems to be in the veins of Tories.

But then she did feed them and ultimately was the architect of her own demise, starting in Lancaster House with her unnecessary red lines.

The first line I agree with.

The second line I also agree with and it overtakes the 1st one. She is the author of her own demise, particularly in the way it ended. Sure Brexit was always going to probably lead to this, but her inability to lead, her inability to take a position, her clear cowering to those that stood up to her.

A number of times, mainly Chequers, she appeared to be grasping the nettle, prepared to make those around her to 'put up of shut up'. But even then she would end up in a no-where, make nobody happy and everybody unhappy position simply because she could make a choice.

The fact that she dithered over the EU elections for so long, and as such completely degraded them as a democratic vehicle. How she mishandled the Grenfell Tower tragedy. Her lack of any domestic achievements.

Simply a total failure

c_murph

Quin_Dub wrote: »

No.. It isn't really , the way that their FPTP voting works even if the Brexit party held on to the % of votes that they currently show in the Euro polls, they'd only get something in the order of 25-30 seats and Farage , just as he always has will struggle to get elected.

I hope you’re right, but the Telegraph / University of Kent think they’ll get a lot more than that... At 20% even Boris’ seat is in trouble.

https://mobile.twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1131793440356933632

Clare in Exile

Akrasia wrote: »

devnull wrote: »

Looks like she might step down as leader but carry on as PM until leadership contest is dealt with.

She's gone on the 7th of June.

No, gone as leader of Conservative and Unionist Party on that date, but will remain as PM until a new leader of the Tories has been selected...

Leroy42

Hopefully the likes of Laura Kuenssberg can write their glowing final articles about how TM, although somewhat limited, always did her best for the country blah blah.

LK seems to have a very soft spot for TM, willing to give her endless passes on any amount of terrible decisions and failures, all seemingly on the basis that she tried her best.

Well, this is the PM we are taking about. Tryin your best, when your best is terrible, is simply not good enough.

ongarite

Her speech was pathetic.
Her list of achievements was literally grasping at straws & including Grenfell in that list will really piss of Londoners.

martingriff

All hail King Boris he will fix all this up:p:(

I would rather have Brian (shudders) Cowen back or Mary Lou then ever have to have him as a leader

LuckyLloyd

The mealy mouthed faint praise we will be treated to over the next days ‘assessing’ her legacy can be ignored. As time ticks on history will not be kind to her or David Cameron. Easily the two most incompetent leaders in British political history - Cameron created and May perpetuated a full blown constitutional crisis. Good riddance.

trellheim

Whoever takes the job will try and renegotiate the WA as they will be elected on the basis of "talking tough to the bureaucrats in Brussels/just getting on with it " . We will then run the clock down as the EU will not budge, and it will be a hard out

Akrasia

martingriff wrote: »

All hail King Boris he will fix all this up:p:(

I would rather have Brian (shudders) Cowen back or Mary Lou then ever have to have him as a leader

Boris was the favourite in the last Tory leadership campaign too, and TM basically came from nowhere to win by default when everyone else had to resign due to infighting and losing support

The next Tory leader could be someone nobody expects today

PropJoe10

As I've said before, she should've spent more time reaching out across the House when it was clear she didn't have a majority, and less time pandering to the likes of Rees Mogg and the ERG. Felt sorry for her on a human level, she's a dignified person and she was definitely trying to do what she thought was right.

Very high chance of No Deal now, I'd say. There's no majority for anything in the Commons so they'll probably get Boris in and crash out as soon as possible. The United Kingdom is in serious jeopardy.

trellheim

ery high chance of No Deal now, I'd say. There's no majority for anything in the Commons so they'll probably get Boris in and crash out as soon as possible. The United Kingdom is in serious jeopardy.

I agree. on Question Time last night I was shocked at the number of leavers (just get on with its ). Its interesting in a morbid way to see how the groupthink eventually takes hold - meaning that "Leave=any definition of leave"

martingriff

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

The mealy mouthed faint praise we will be treated to over the next days ‘assessing’ her legacy can be ignored. As time ticks on history will not be kind to her or David Cameron. Easily the two most incompetent leaders in British political history - Cameron created and May perpetuated a full blown constitutional crisis. Good riddance.

In fairness to Cameron he said as an election promise he would have the referendum and was against leaving. He lived up to the promise and I respect him for leaving and let someone else to bring it forward as he did not want to leave.

Call me Al

PropJoe10 wrote: »

As I've said before, she should've spent more time reaching out across the House when it was clear she didn't have a majority, and less time pandering to the likes of Rees Mogg and the ERG. Felt sorry for her on a human level, she's a dignified person and she was definitely trying to do what she thought was right.

Very high chance of No Deal now, I'd say. There's no majority for anything in the Commons so they'll probably get Boris in and crash out as soon as possible. The United Kingdom is in serious jeopardy.

Completely agree. May was driven by power and party, and her party are the ones who betrayed her in the end. She could have come out intact, but she painted red lines all around herself, misread her colleagues and added to the Brexit frenzy that has stifled her country this past 18 months.

I've no pity for her though. Master of her own misfortune.

LuckyLloyd

martingriff wrote: »

In fairness to Cameron he said as an election promise he would have the referendum and was against leaving. He lived up to the promise and I respect him for leaving and let someone else to bring it forward as he did not want to leave.

I think there is little or nothing to respect about his reckless political gambling to solve internal party issues that threw his country into crisis.

PropJoe10

trellheim wrote: »

I agree. on Question Time last night I was shocked at the number of leavers (just get on with its ). Its interesting in a morbid way to see how the groupthink eventually takes hold - meaning that "Leave=any definition of leave"

It's turned into a militant "we've had enough of this, lets just leave" without people having any idea of the consequences of that. Look at the support for the Brexit party at the moment. The UK is heading for a very rocky decade ahead and I hope they don't drag us down with them.

Anteayer

It's hard not to feel a bit sorry for her at an instantaneous human level, but this is the woman who pushed policies like the Home Office's "Hostile Environment". Her fingerprints are all over the Windrush scandal.

She saw nothing wrong with going into government with the support of the DUP, despite anyone with half a clue about Northern Ireland explaining why that was a terrible idea.

She also managed to campaign for remaining in the EU, then switch to some kind of pro Brexit dogmatic stance. If she'd any kind of backbone, she would have walked away with her head held high on her own terms as soon as she saw that she was being stabbed in the back.

She had every opportunity to say : back me or sack me and I think if she had done that, even if she had been sacked by the Tories, she would have gone out with dignity and a much better legacy.

Instead she's been basically dragged out of office on someone else's terms having clung on, despite it being blatantly obvious it was untenable.

branie2

covered on RTE News now

kunst nugget

martingriff wrote: »

In fairness to Cameron he said as an election promise he would have the referendum and was against leaving. He lived up to the promise and I respect him for leaving and let someone else to bring it forward as he did not want to leave.

He put party before country and promised the referendum to appease the loopers in his party and stop them losing votes to UKip. He gambled and won with the Scottish Independence referendum and thought he could do it a second time with Brexit. He also said he'd stick around to implement Brexit if that was the will of the people and instead quit immediately after the result. He gets no respect from me.

martingriff

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

I think there is little or nothing to respect about his reckless political gambling to solve internal party issues that threw his country into crisis.

Not his fault the population was duped by Farage and Boris and Rees Moog

20silkcut

martingriff wrote: »

In fairness to Cameron he said as an election promise he would have the referendum and was against leaving. He lived up to the promise and I respect him for leaving and let someone else to bring it forward as he did not want to leave.

Totally disagree it was the most insane referendum ever dreamed up.

It’s up there with a referendum on tax abolishment.

In the words of Donald tusk no one had a sketch of a plan.

The only thing brexit has achieved is to embolden and empower the lunatics.

Terrible strategy by Cameron, history will come down hard on him, much harder than may, and probably much harder than the next Pm too.

Strumms

PropJoe10 wrote: »

As I've said before, she should've spent more time reaching out across the House when it was clear she didn't have a majority, and less time pandering to the likes of Rees Mogg .

The ink is barley cold on her resignation speech and Rees Mogg is putting the boot in... true to form and true to his lack of class. How voters could look at him and think electable is beyond me.

ancapailldorcha

martingriff wrote: »

All hail King Boris he will fix all this up:p:(

I would rather have Brian (shudders) Cowen back or Mary Lou then ever have to have him as a leader

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