Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

trashcan

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Bercow was doorstepped by the BBC on his way to work and handled it perfectly...

https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1107937994051223555

I hesitate to use the word but in political terms Bercows action yesterday was quite heroic. Especially so if it's true that he'll probably be denied a knighthood as a result. We all know how much that means to the British establishment.

Kermit.de.frog

Press conference between Tusk and Varadkar cancelled.


I guess there is nothing to say.

Professor Moriarty

ComRes poll this weekend:

Con 34% -2
Lab 35% +1
LD 8% -
TIG 7% -1
UKIP 6% -
SNP 3% -
Green 3% -
Other 4% +2

ArmaniJeanss

Sample of Brexit letters received by Andrew Gwynne MP (Lab) on one day.
Won't be news to anyone here, but gives a stark example of how impossible it is to follow the wishes of your constituents.

https://twitter.com/GwynneMP/status/1107741970141798401?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Infini

trashcan wrote: »

I hesitate to use the word but in political terms Bercows action yesterday was quite heroic. Especially so if it's true that he'll probably be denied a knighthood as a result. We all know how much that means to the British establishment.

This has been said for sometime that he'd be denied a peerage because the conservatards are just that petty but the irony is that sort of threat backfires on them utterly as it unburdens him from having to put up with their ignorant bull and actually be able to do his job without interference as they cant hold anything on him.

Joe_ Public

Don’t know if I’m being slightly facetious or not but when i hear brexiteers going on about “the 17.4m”, as Owen Patterson has mentioned at least 5 times on bbc just now, i can’t help wondering how many of those are actually dead now. It’s just a phrase that annoys me either way, we’ve moved so far on from that now.

Kermit.de.frog

It's not even a third of the population of Britain either....


Also the idea that the likes of Owen Paterson are men of the people in the likes of Sheffield, Barnsley and Sunderland sticking up for the common man is absolutely ludicrous.

Anteayer

I find this whole thing ridiculous and the BBC is behaving like a tabloid there.

The speaker held the executive to account by upholding the rules of the house. May is effectively trying to almost filibuster by bringing the same proposal again and again until she eventually wears the MPs down or backs them into a corner so can't avoid voting in her favour. That is an abysmal way to threat the House and I think it's propper order that she's landed herself in this message.

The Government has continuously treated MPs with utter contempt. Even the fact that May and her government (who I add don't even have a clean majority) haven't stepped aside given how badly they've lost votes is unprecedented.

She's brass necking it and refusing to let go of power despite the fact that she's clearly no mandate to negotiate anything, which is what has led us to this mess.

Everything seems to be about just shutting down anything that might derail Brexit, including normal democratic values if needs be.

Somehow a badly conducted advisory referendum has become more important than any constitutional law or Parliamentary procedure. How much more of British democracy has to be sacrificed at the altar before this thing is done !?

Infini

dublinman1990 wrote: »

It looks like that the UK will get an eventual extension on the deal along with a new date for Brexit.

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1107722959475613698

It still comes down to a simple fact though: What is their plan? Why should the extend for more of the same? Why evade the choice they themselves imposed on others?

The EU needs to make it clear to the UK that there's only a limited number of options that will allow any agreement for an extention to pass otherwise its Leave or Abandon Brexit by next week.

Inquitus

Seems May is still sticking to Plan A with a backup of along delay. Laughable at this point.

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1107988238118121472

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1107988653983363072

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1107988976026222593

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1107989414175797248

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1107990954533941249

Spanish Eyes

Getting the feeling that a long extension means Brexit is finished.

But what happens regarding the EU elections? Anyway I doubt there is any other way to get over this impasse.

Two things strike me. One, if EU elections happen in Britain will there be Brexit and Remain candidates, and will Farage be re -elected?

Two, the UK will continue for years to be a thorn in the side of the EU, but an extension is far better than no deal.

What a total shambles this all is. Still, most people, including some Leavers, and all Remainers, and ourselves might just breathe a sigh of relief now, for the moment.

Panrich

And now they are pushing back that they're looking for a long extension. It's chaos there now and this won't help their cause in getting any extension over the line.

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1107995573393739776?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1107995573393739776&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fpolitics%2Flive%2F2019%2Fmar%2F19%2Fbrexit-latest-news-bercow-speaker-theresa-may-to-chair-cabinet-as-government-responds-to-bercow-ruling-against-repeat-vote-on-deal-politics-live

CelticRambler

Inquitus wrote: »

Seems May is still sticking to Plan A with a backup of along delay.

Seems like May is sticking with Plan A - don't talk to anybody who could help get her deal over the line. :rolleyes:

Jizique

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Getting the feeling that a long extension means Brexit is finished.

But what happens regarding the EU elections? Anyway I doubt there is any other way to get over this impasse.

Two things strike me. One, if EU elections happen in Britain will there be Brexit and Remain candidates, and will Farage be re -elected?

Two, the UK will continue for years to be a thorn in the side of the EU, but an extension is far better than no deal.

What a total shambles this all is. Still, most people, including some Leavers, and all Remainers, and ourselves might just breathe a sigh of relief now, for the moment.

They might as well hold the EU elections; given their avowed love of democracy and the fact that it is PR rather than FPTP, it would represent an interesting reflection of opinion.
I could see a biggish turnout, 60% perhaps, with UKIP getting 10-12%, the tories 25%, Labour something similar, and the LibDems and Greens (and SNP) the rest.

Seth Brundle

Erm what?
May weighing third Commons Brexit vote despite Speaker’s ruling

road_high

This is exactly what they’ve been banging on about for years- uk parliament and rules to take precedence over all else and it’s what they’re getting. Why be upset at that?

road_high

Two year extension will definitely mean the UK will have to partake in EU elections? That’ll all have to be decided very soon

Professor Moriarty

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Erm what?
May weighing third Commons Brexit vote despite Speaker’s ruling

Paywalled.

Inquitus

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Erm what?
May weighing third Commons Brexit vote despite Speaker’s ruling

A majority in the commons can set aside Bercow's ruling, if she has a majority for her deal, then she probably has a majority to set aside that ruling, or at least if she thought it was close, she could try.

Strazdas

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Getting the feeling that a long extension means Brexit is finished.

But what happens regarding the EU elections? Anyway I doubt there is any other way to get over this impasse.

Two things strike me. One, if EU elections happen in Britain will there be Brexit and Remain candidates, and will Farage be re -elected?

Two, the UK will continue for years to be a thorn in the side of the EU, but an extension is far better than no deal.

What a total shambles this all is. Still, most people, including some Leavers, and all Remainers, and ourselves might just breathe a sigh of relief now, for the moment.

Don't forget the EU are still totally in control of the situation. They can attach strict demands to the granting of an extension. It is May who is going to them on Thursday begging them for help.

The deadline of Friday next week is a self imposed deadline by the British. All of the pressure is on them and not on the EU.

ancapailldorcha

This is the key part:

Nick Boles, a former Tory minister and advocate of a softer Brexit, also said the significance of Mr Bercow’s intervention was being overstated.

“Not sure what all the fuss is about,” he wrote on Twitter. “If the PM thinks she has a majority for a third meaningful vote, she will also have a majority for a motion to set aside the Speaker’s ruling . . . If she doesn’t, no point making the attempt.”

Apparently, Brecow's ruling can be cast aside via a motion if there's sufficient will in the House.

CelticRambler

Inquitus wrote: »

A majority is the commons can set aside Bercow's ruling, if she has a majority for her deal, then she probably has a majority to set aside that ruling, or at least if she thought it was close, she could try.

That's as may be, but don't forget that we woke up on Monday (yesterday ) to the rumour that she'd pull MV3 because it looked like she didn't have enough votes. You don't go from struggling to get a majority on the back of shady deals with NI minority parties to being so confident of success that you can overturn parliamentary precedent in the space of a few days.

Inquitus

CelticRambler wrote: »

That's as may be, but don't forget that we woke up on Monday (yesterday ) to the rumour that she'd pull MV3 because it looked like she didn't have enough votes. You don't go from struggling to get a majority on the back of shady deals with NI minority parties to being so confident of success that you can overturn parliamentary precedent.

Aye I guess the point is it changes very little, if she can get a majority for the deal she can pass it, if not she can't. I guess it does hinder her in so far as she can't go for MV 3,4,5 like she was perhaps planning.

ToBeFrank123

The third meaningful vote was going to fail anyways for the WA. Don't see what the big deal is. Bercow probably saved further embarrassment for May.

She'd be better off calling a GE at this stage and aim for a clear Conservative majority. She said she wouldn't lead the party into the next GE, but she should go into the GE as leader selling her deal. Corbyn will probably go into the GE with second ref as his big idea. Whoever wins the election has a mandate from the people to implement their policy and their MPS should row in behind the leader after the GE.

Strazdas

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This is the key part:



Apparently, Brecow's ruling can be cast aside via a motion if there's sufficient will in the House.

Dominic Grieve says even if there is a majority for May's deal, that doesn't necessarily mean a majority will set aside Bercow's ruling......they are two completely different subjects.

Inquitus

Something amusing out of Cabinet!

https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1108002920379940865

CelticRambler

Inquitus wrote: »

Aye I guess the point is it changes very little, if she can get a majority for the deal she can pass it, if not she can't.

Well, it means that she can't simply use threats, bribes and a bit of word-play to bring the same deal back to the HoC - she'll need to make some real effort to change direction.

So far, though, it looks like she's determined to hold HMS Britannia on course for the iceberg.

ArmaniJeanss

Strazdas wrote: »

Dominic Grieve says even if there is a majority for May's deal, that doesn't necessarily mean a majority will set aside Bercow's ruling......they are two completely different subjects.

Yeah, you'd think a few of the grandee's who would vote for the deal (Ken Clarke type of MPs) might be uncomfortable about voting down a speakers ruling.

ToBeFrank123

CelticRambler wrote: »

Well, it means that she can't simply use threats, bribes and a bit of word-play to bring the same deal back to the HoC - she'll need to make some real effort to change direction.

So far, though, it looks like she's determined to hold HMS Britannia on course for the iceberg.

Agreed. Its probably why this rule was brought in 400 years ago, to prevent undue pressure being brought to bear on MPs to change their mind, or else that MPs would vote one way the first time with the hope of reward if they voted a different way the next time. It protects against corruption and also prevents every single vote being held numerous times until the PM gets the right result.

A good move by Bercow.

54and56

I wonder have Paddy Power paid out on the UK not leaving the EU by March 29th yet? Should raise some heckles when they do